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If Jarry does bad in the playoffs again

Team: 2023-24 Pittsburgh Penguins
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Jan. 30, 2023 at 4:13 p.m.
#1
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If Jarry does bad in the playoffs again, you are going to trade a 1st + for one of the worst goalies in the league across the past 4 seasons? That'll solve those issues...
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Jan. 30, 2023 at 4:26 p.m.
#2
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Thegreatdebater
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Quoting: Byrr
If Jarry does bad in the playoffs again, you are going to trade a 1st + for one of the worst goalies in the league across the past 4 seasons? That'll solve those issues...


Hes on one of the worst teams across the past 4 seasons
Jan. 30, 2023 at 4:31 p.m.
#3
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Quoting: howmuchcurrycanyoueat
Hes on one of the worst teams across the past 4 seasons


and has played worse than any other goalie on the team through that period. The team is bad partly because of Gibson, GIbson isn't bad because of the team.
Jan. 30, 2023 at 4:32 p.m.
#4
pens1991
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Quoting: Byrr
If Jarry does bad in the playoffs again, you are going to trade a 1st + for one of the worst goalies in the league across the past 4 seasons? That'll solve those issues...


Guy has played on arguably the worst team over the last 4 years that's also typically been top 10-5 in the league for shots allowed per game, goalie can only do so much.
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Jan. 30, 2023 at 4:32 p.m.
#5
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Quoting: howmuchcurrycanyoueat
Hes on one of the worst teams across the past 4 seasons


Gibson is not good anymore. No thanks.
Jan. 30, 2023 at 4:32 p.m.
#6
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Quoting: pens1991
Guy has played on arguably the worst team over the last 4 years that's also typically been top 10-5 in the league for shots allowed per game, goalie can only do so much.


Quoting: Byrr
and has played worse than any other goalie on the team through that period. The team is bad partly because of Gibson, GIbson isn't bad because of the team.


.
Jan. 30, 2023 at 4:33 p.m.
#7
pens1991
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Why sign all former penguins? Lol and get older??? Kessel will never play in pittsburgh so long as Malkin is around, think that was pretty clear when he left. No thanks on Olli or JVR. I'd take staal back though.
Jan. 30, 2023 at 4:58 p.m.
#8
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Quoting: Byrr
and has played worse than any other goalie on the team through that period. The team is bad partly because of Gibson, GIbson isn't bad because of the team.


Gee, lets think, dedicated starter who plays 50+ games a year has lower stats that his backups who get to pull the easy assignments... I can't imagine why that is.

Lets check to see if the Ducks are bad because Gibson is "bad", hmm, he has the highest points share on the Ducks roster every year since the 2015-2016 season, when he was 6th on the team, and Corey Perry was the leader. Nope, math doesn't check out on your statement, try again.
Jan. 30, 2023 at 5:08 p.m.
#9
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Thegreatdebater
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Quoting: pens1991
Why sign all former penguins? Lol and get older??? Kessel will never play in pittsburgh so long as Malkin is around, think that was pretty clear when he left. No thanks on Olli or JVR. I'd take staal back though.


Whats the beef between Kessel and Malkin, I thought they loved each other.
Jan. 30, 2023 at 5:09 p.m.
#10
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Thegreatdebater
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Quoting: GiggywithGibby
Gee, lets think, dedicated starter who plays 50+ games a year has lower stats that his backups who get to pull the easy assignments... I can't imagine why that is.

Lets check to see if the Ducks are bad because Gibson is "bad", hmm, he has the highest points share on the Ducks roster every year since the 2015-2016 season, when he was 6th on the team, and Corey Perry was the leader. Nope, math doesn't check out on your statement, try again.


Thats the problem with stat watchers, they can never apply context or common sense lol. They'll think a guy who has good numbers going against 4th lines and 3rd pairings is better than a guy who has average or bad numbers playing in a shutdown role vs top lines or going up against top pairings.
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Jan. 30, 2023 at 5:11 p.m.
#11
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Quoting: GiggywithGibby
Gee, lets think, dedicated starter who plays 50+ games a year has lower stats that his backups who get to pull the easy assignments... I can't imagine why that is.

Lets check to see if the Ducks are bad because Gibson is "bad", hmm, he has the highest points share on the Ducks roster every year since the 2015-2016 season, when he was 6th on the team, and Corey Perry was the leader. Nope, math doesn't check out on your statement, try again.


Doing it by a /60 rate doesn't change anything. It's not games played weighing the stats. Of course you tried to add false context though.

What the **** is points share?
Jan. 30, 2023 at 5:27 p.m.
#12
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Quoting: Byrr
Doing it by a /60 rate doesn't change anything. It's not games played weighing the stats. Of course you tried to add false context though.

What the **** is points share?


No one tried to bring /60 rate into things, so no, I'm not adding "False context". I am saying that Gibson is the dedicated starter, the go to guy on a game by game basis. When you play against a cup contending team, Gibson goes is. When you are playing against a bottom feeder like San Jose or the Coyotes, Stolarz goes in. Barring back to back games or an injury, Gibson plays against the top teams, his backup plays against the bottom teams.

Here, educate yourself
https://www.hockey-reference.com/about/point_shares.html
Jan. 30, 2023 at 5:28 p.m.
#13
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Quoting: GiggywithGibby
No one tried to bring /60 rate into things, so no, I'm not adding "False context". I am saying that Gibson is the dedicated starter, the go to guy on a game by game basis. When you play against a cup contending team, Gibson goes is. When you are playing against a bottom feeder like San Jose or the Coyotes, Stolarz goes in. Barring back to back games or an injury, Gibson plays against the top teams, his backup plays against the bottom teams.

Here, educate yourself
https://www.hockey-reference.com/about/point_shares.html


So you used some niche stat that 1 guy created to try and make your point rather than the more well founded, better tested, ones among the fancy stats community? Clearly I'm not the one who needs to 'educate' himself.

Look I get it. You are a Gibson fan. So much so you named yourself after him. The facts still are the facts regardless of how you might feel about the player and nothing points to Gibson being a positive value goalie anymore. Lucky for us, we have a model for what the trade of a negative value goalie with a big contract looks like. It's Matt Murray's trade. Gibson's is likely to follow it.
Jan. 30, 2023 at 5:44 p.m.
#14
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Edited Jan. 30, 2023 at 5:51 p.m.
Quoting: GiggywithGibby
No one tried to bring /60 rate into things, so no, I'm not adding "False context". I am saying that Gibson is the dedicated starter, the go to guy on a game by game basis. When you play against a cup contending team, Gibson goes is. When you are playing against a bottom feeder like San Jose or the Coyotes, Stolarz goes in. Barring back to back games or an injury, Gibson plays against the top teams, his backup plays against the bottom teams.

Here, educate yourself
https://www.hockey-reference.com/about/point_shares.html


This idea Gibson should do better against worst teams interested me so I did the legwork for this season. You can imagine how this is going to go...

Here is the game log for Gibson's games against teams who aren't in the playoff picture at this point in the season:

2022-10-15 2 29-093 ANA @ NYI L L 5 27 22 .815
2022-10-23 5 29-101 ANA @ DET L L 5 41 36 .878
2022-11-03 9 29-112 ANA @ VAN L L 7 46 39 .848
2022-11-06 10 29-115 ANA FLA L L 4 47 43 .915
2022-11-15 12 29-124 ANA DET W W 2 33 31 .939
2022-11-19 14 29-128 ANA @ STL L L 5 29 24 .828
2022-11-21 15 29-130 ANA @ STL L L 2 26 24 .923
2022-11-29 18 29-138 ANA @ NSH L-OT O 2 41 39 .951
2022-12-09 21 29-148 ANA SJS L L 4 19 15 .789
2022-12-30 24 29-169 ANA NSH L L 6 43 37 .860
2023-01-02 25 29-172 ANA PHI L L 4 33 29 .879
2023-01-19 31 29-189 ANA @ CBJ W W 0 18 18 1.000
2023-01-28 34 29-198 ANA ARI W W 1 34 33 .971

Through all these games he faced 353 shots and saved 314 of them for a .889 save %. That's actually worse than his .898 save % on the year. According to the basic stats, Gibson has actually played worse against the worst teams rather than better like you would turn his numbers around. In other words, your thoughts are wrong and I can show it. How's that for 'educating' myself?

/edit

I realized if I included the Islanders, I should include the 2 games against Nashville as well. So its updated with that and changed his the overall picture to 437 shots and 390 saves, or a 0.892 save %. Go figure, a better team bumped up those numbers.
Jan. 30, 2023 at 5:47 p.m.
#15
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Quoting: Byrr
So you used some niche stat that 1 guy created to try and make your point rather than the more well founded, better tested, ones among the fancy stats community? Clearly I'm not the one who needs to 'educate' himself.

Look I get it. You are a Gibson fan. So much so you named yourself after him. The facts still are the facts regardless of how you might feel about the player and nothing points to Gibson being a positive value goalie anymore. Lucky for us, we have a model for what the trade of a negative value goalie with a big contract looks like. It's Matt Murray's trade. Gibson's is likely to follow it.


We're not trading him, sure as **** aren't dumping him, he's still the most valuable player on our roster and we don't need the cap space. Unlike Murray, Gibson doesn't get injured every time he starts to get his game together. The reason Ottowa sent him packing was because he couldn't be relied on (and hey look, that's reflected in his points share in Ottowa)

You can hate on him all you want, but watch his game play and you realize that Gibson is not the problem in Anaheim, never has been. We're suffering from the aftermath of being managed by an alcoholic the last several years who tried to keep the band together for one more run too many times.
Jan. 30, 2023 at 5:53 p.m.
#16
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Quoting: GiggywithGibby
You can hate on him all you want, but watch his game play and you realize that Gibson is not the problem in Anaheim, never has been. We're suffering from the aftermath of being managed by an alcoholic the last several years who tried to keep the band together for one more run too many times.


The numbers tell a different story.
Jan. 30, 2023 at 6:11 p.m.
#17
pens1991
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Quoting: howmuchcurrycanyoueat
Whats the beef between Kessel and Malkin, I thought they loved each other.


maybe off ice, but there were rumors floating around that malkin basically said it's phil or me.
Jan. 30, 2023 at 6:25 p.m.
#18
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Quoting: Byrr
This idea Gibson should do better against worst teams interested me so I did the legwork for this season. You can imagine how this is going to go...

Here is the game log for Gibson's games against teams who aren't in the playoff picture at this point in the season:

2022-10-15 2 29-093 ANA NYI L L 5 27 22 .815
2022-10-23 5 29-101 ANA DET L L 5 41 36 .878
2022-11-03 9 29-112 ANA VAN L L 7 46 39 .848
2022-11-06 10 29-115 ANA FLA L L 4 47 43 .915
2022-11-15 12 29-124 ANA DET W W 2 33 31 .939
2022-11-19 14 29-128 ANA STL L L 5 29 24 .828
2022-11-21 15 29-130 ANA STL L L 2 26 24 .923
2022-11-29 18 29-138 ANA NSH L-OT O 2 41 39 .951
2022-12-09 21 29-148 ANA SJS L L 4 19 15 .789
2022-12-30 24 29-169 ANA NSH L L 6 43 37 .860
2023-01-02 25 29-172 ANA PHI L L 4 33 29 .879
2023-01-19 31 29-189 ANA CBJ W W 0 18 18 1.000
2023-01-28 34 29-198 ANA ARI W W 1 34 33 .971

Through all these games he faced 353 shots and saved 314 of them for a .889 save %. That's actually worse than his .898 save % on the year. According to the basic stats, Gibson has actually played worse against the worst teams rather than better like you would turn his numbers around. In other words, your thoughts are wrong and I can show it. How's that for 'educating' myself?

/edit

I realized if I included the Islanders, I should include the 2 games against Nashville as well. So its updated with that and changed his the overall picture to 437 shots and 390 saves, or a 0.892 save %. Go figure, a better team bumped up those numbers.


I said he pulls the harder assignments, I didn't say he played better against teams not currently in a playoff position. Lets check Stolarz's starts

NJD L
SJS W
SJS W
CHI L
OTT L
DAL L
WPG L B2B after MIN
SJS W
CBJ Pulled
ARI W

Of the three teams he started against currently in the playoff conversation, one was NJ back in mid October before anyone knew they were good (game 3, NJ first win on the season), one was Dallas, and one was Winnipeg on game 2 of a back to back. Of those contests, Stolarz has only won against Arizona and San Jose.

Gibson, on the other hand, has won against the following teams this season
Toronto, Detroit, NY Rangers, Seattle, Vegas, Dallas, CBJ (relief appearance), Colorado, and Arizona.
He dragged the following teams into extra hockey in spite of his teams inability to score (31st in the league this season)
Boston, Nashville, Minnesota, Pittsburgh

A lot of playoff contenders or hopefuls in that group, yet he stole wins with a team that gives up the highest SOG/gp, and has the 2nd worst scoring in the league. It's frankly amazing we've won any games this season, so again, Gibson is not the problem in Anaheim.

https://hockeyviz.com/fixedImg/shotLocDef/2223/ANA/wrap
Jan. 30, 2023 at 7:01 p.m.
#19
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Edited Jan. 30, 2023 at 7:11 p.m.
Quoting: GiggywithGibby
I said he pulls the harder assignments, I didn't say he played better against teams not currently in a playoff position. Lets check Stolarz's starts

NJD L
SJS W
SJS W
CHI L
OTT L
DAL L
WPG L B2B after MIN
SJS W
CBJ Pulled
ARI W

Of the three teams he started against currently in the playoff conversation, one was NJ back in mid October before anyone knew they were good (game 3, NJ first win on the season), one was Dallas, and one was Winnipeg on game 2 of a back to back. Of those contests, Stolarz has only won against Arizona and San Jose.

Gibson, on the other hand, has won against the following teams this season
Toronto, Detroit, NY Rangers, Seattle, Vegas, Dallas, CBJ (relief appearance), Colorado, and Arizona.
He dragged the following teams into extra hockey in spite of his teams inability to score (31st in the league this season)
Boston, Nashville, Minnesota, Pittsburgh

A lot of playoff contenders or hopefuls in that group, yet he stole wins with a team that gives up the highest SOG/gp, and has the 2nd worst scoring in the league. It's frankly amazing we've won any games this season, so again, Gibson is not the problem in Anaheim.

https://hockeyviz.com/fixedImg/shotLocDef/2223/ANA/wrap


>Gibson has bad stats
>Other goalies have better stats
>'It's because they are playing worse teams!'
>Other goalies have better stats against those bad teams
>Gibson isn't a problem in Anaheim

You can understand why I don't pay attention to you.
 
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