Joined: Jul. 2018
Posts: 349
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Vancouver clearly wins this deal, but I don't think either fan base can be too thrilled.
The Islanders make perhaps the worst trade I have seen in years. This deal is tough to swallow for a contender, but for a team where Horvat's addition doesn't even bring them close to even money to make the playoffs, it's just ridiculous. Signing Horvat to an extension is actually likely to make this worse, as Horvat represents the exact type of scenario to create a massive overpayment on an extension. He's going to be 28 at the beginning of a new deal, he is a former captain, he is perceived to be a good 2 way player despite very mediocre defensive metrics and results, he's having a career year, and he is riding high on percentages that aren't likely to be sustainable. He's a good player, but given that he didn't come with an immediate extension, it kind of suggests that he isn't a guarantee to sign, or at the very least it's going to mean paying top dollar, and that isn't something a team in the Islanders situation should be interested in. The fact of the matter is that the Islanders are likely either giving up a mid first in a historically deep draft, or going into 2024 with the NHLs oldest roster after missing the playoffs two years in a row while having no 1st round pick. That is awful asset management. Basically this amounts to Lou just taking a stab and hoping for a miracle, but probably having it blow up in his face.
From Vancouver's point of view, I think they made the right call in trading Horvat given their situation, but the return isn't spectacular, and there is some concern that it signals a quick retool when this roster needs a complete overhaul. Beavillier is negative value right now, he's basically a Pierre Engvall getting paid to be Adrian Kempe. Raty is a good prospect, but represents a safe bet with modest ceiling, so overall the return is a little underwhelming, and could point to signs that Rutherford might try and rush things and turn his tenure in Vancouver into more mediocrity.
Overall Vancouver easily wins the deal, but fans will probably want to see a bit more of the bigger picture before they get too excited, but at least there is a lot of hope on their side of things. The Islanders just reek of desperation, and end up making a deal that might go down as the worst we have seen since Hall for Larsson. Some will try and defend it, but it's not defensible. The reality is that if Lou was going to take a swing this big, it should have been in the years where the Islanders were atop their division with a deep playoff ready roster, letting those teams sink or swim on their own, and then spending this much on a team that has been very mediocre for the last 18 months is just a terrible strategy, no matter how optimistic you are.