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(VAN/NYI) - Horvat for Beauvillier, Räty, conditional 1st

Who won the trade?
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Jan. 31, 2023 at 4:35 p.m.
#126
NoQuitInNewYork
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Edited Apr. 3, 2023 at 4:03 p.m.
I’m surprised that Vancouver did this well in a Horvat trade.

A 1st, a prospect and a solid roster player isn’t a bad return.

Islanders better make the playoffs now. If not, Horvat probably leaves this upcoming offseason.
Jan. 31, 2023 at 7:21 p.m.
#127
I Love J Boqvist
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Quoting: sleeparc
And people don't think Meier can return Alex Holtz...Timo>Horvat. Grier's price just went up.


Who has been saying Meier cant get Holtz back? Its been Holtz + 1st + one other thing, whether thats yegor, another prospect, or another pick
Jan. 31, 2023 at 7:55 p.m.
#128
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Quoting: budgeteam
They cannot flip Beauvillier unless they retain significant salary, which they won't do.

Beauvillier has negative value in the current cap climate. That's one of the biggest stories of this deal, that Vancouver had to take a bad contract with term to get a middle of the road trade deadline type return for one of the most attractive rentals this off season.


I don't think they were planning to flip Beauvillier, but I didn't consider that he might be a cap dump, other than to the extent that the Islanders needed to clear some space for Horvat’s cap hit this season. I must admit that I haven’t seen Beauvillier play much lately, but I saw him as a solid middle-6 guy at a salary that was by no means a bargain but not unreasonably high for what he brings. I think that’s how the Canucks see him too, though I can’t say for certain, because I wouldn’t expect them to admit that they didn’t really want a guy they just traded for. He’s only got one more year left on his contract, so he won’t be a long-term liability, but they’re not in a position to trade cap space for futures. Horvat’s value to Vancouver was limited to whatever they could get in a trade for him, but as one of this year’s most sought after rentals and with the ability to retain more salary than they did, they should have been able to get a good return without taking back a contract they didn’t want. If Beau (not Bo) is a negative asset, they would have been better off to leave him out of the deal and take fewer positive assets.
Jan. 31, 2023 at 8:24 p.m.
#129
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Quoting: dgibb10
Who has been saying Meier cant get Holtz back? Its been Holtz + 1st + one other thing, whether thats yegor, another prospect, or another pick


It’s difficult to compare Meier with Horvat because Meier is a pending RFA while Horvat is a pending UFA. Meier’s $10M qualifying offer might reduce his trade value -- it would probably make me reluctant to give up too much -- but if enough teams think he’s worth that much, then he should fetch significantly more in a trade than if he was a pending UFA.
Feb. 1, 2023 at 3:15 p.m.
#130
feelsbadman
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Vancouver trades their 30 goal captain everyone's reaction - he ain't no Timo Meier XD
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Feb. 1, 2023 at 3:19 p.m.
#131
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Vancouver clearly wins this deal, but I don't think either fan base can be too thrilled.

The Islanders make perhaps the worst trade I have seen in years. This deal is tough to swallow for a contender, but for a team where Horvat's addition doesn't even bring them close to even money to make the playoffs, it's just ridiculous. Signing Horvat to an extension is actually likely to make this worse, as Horvat represents the exact type of scenario to create a massive overpayment on an extension. He's going to be 28 at the beginning of a new deal, he is a former captain, he is perceived to be a good 2 way player despite very mediocre defensive metrics and results, he's having a career year, and he is riding high on percentages that aren't likely to be sustainable. He's a good player, but given that he didn't come with an immediate extension, it kind of suggests that he isn't a guarantee to sign, or at the very least it's going to mean paying top dollar, and that isn't something a team in the Islanders situation should be interested in. The fact of the matter is that the Islanders are likely either giving up a mid first in a historically deep draft, or going into 2024 with the NHLs oldest roster after missing the playoffs two years in a row while having no 1st round pick. That is awful asset management. Basically this amounts to Lou just taking a stab and hoping for a miracle, but probably having it blow up in his face.

From Vancouver's point of view, I think they made the right call in trading Horvat given their situation, but the return isn't spectacular, and there is some concern that it signals a quick retool when this roster needs a complete overhaul. Beavillier is negative value right now, he's basically a Pierre Engvall getting paid to be Adrian Kempe. Raty is a good prospect, but represents a safe bet with modest ceiling, so overall the return is a little underwhelming, and could point to signs that Rutherford might try and rush things and turn his tenure in Vancouver into more mediocrity.

Overall Vancouver easily wins the deal, but fans will probably want to see a bit more of the bigger picture before they get too excited, but at least there is a lot of hope on their side of things. The Islanders just reek of desperation, and end up making a deal that might go down as the worst we have seen since Hall for Larsson. Some will try and defend it, but it's not defensible. The reality is that if Lou was going to take a swing this big, it should have been in the years where the Islanders were atop their division with a deep playoff ready roster, letting those teams sink or swim on their own, and then spending this much on a team that has been very mediocre for the last 18 months is just a terrible strategy, no matter how optimistic you are.
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Feb. 1, 2023 at 3:29 p.m.
#132
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Quoting: jr400
I don't think they were planning to flip Beauvillier, but I didn't consider that he might be a cap dump, other than to the extent that the Islanders needed to clear some space for Horvat’s cap hit this season. I must admit that I haven’t seen Beauvillier play much lately, but I saw him as a solid middle-6 guy at a salary that was by no means a bargain but not unreasonably high for what he brings. I think that’s how the Canucks see him too, though I can’t say for certain, because I wouldn’t expect them to admit that they didn’t really want a guy they just traded for. He’s only got one more year left on his contract, so he won’t be a long-term liability, but they’re not in a position to trade cap space for futures. Horvat’s value to Vancouver was limited to whatever they could get in a trade for him, but as one of this year’s most sought after rentals and with the ability to retain more salary than they did, they should have been able to get a good return without taking back a contract they didn’t want. If Beau (not Bo) is a negative asset, they would have been better off to leave him out of the deal and take fewer positive assets.


Beauvillier is probably overall pretty neutral to slightly negative. He's basically getting paid twice what he should be, and it's apparent teams aren't willing to pay players of his calibre and age the money he is getting. Dylan Strome and Nino Neideritter both signed last summer for less money and limited term, and both have been significantly better players over the last few seasons than Beauvillier, so it's unlikely he is seen as an asset based on his cap hit. Vancouver can afford to just take him back, and can maybe flip him in his UFA season for an asset if they put him in a position that best utilizes his skills, but I don't think he was a requested trade piece so much as the player that made sense to make the money work.
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Feb. 1, 2023 at 4:16 p.m.
#133
WentWughes
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Quoting: mondo
I'm in the camp of "wait and see what happens". I think it's a win for the Islanders if they make the playoffs and Horvat re-signs, but if they don't and he doesn't they're out their two best assets for nothing.

Looking at it a bit more, yeah I think the Canucks could've gotten a better return than this. It could be on them for wanting a roster player in a return instead of quality futures.


Not a big fan of waiting until hindsight. That's not something that the GMs can see when making the trade.
Feb. 1, 2023 at 5:36 p.m.
#134
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I think the problem with this trade is that now New York is pot committed on re-signing Horvat. Bo's agent can play hardball with Lou and tell him he won't sign for a dollar less than $9M per season at max term. If Lou tell him to kick rocks and Horvat goes to free agency, then the Islanders just got massively fleeced and Lou looks like a moron. If Lou gives him what he asks for, then he's just committed more money than he should have on an extension for a player that may or may not be having a fluke season.
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Feb. 1, 2023 at 6:01 p.m.
#135
torontos finest
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Quoting: KSIxSKULLS
Not a big fan of waiting until hindsight. That's not something that the GMs can see when making the trade.


Feb. 1, 2023 at 6:21 p.m.
#136
WentWughes
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Quoting: mondo


You're in the camp of wait and see so you can take hindsight into the equation when the GMs couldn't. Vancouver won the trade based on the circumstances when the trade happened.
Feb. 2, 2023 at 9:34 a.m.
#137
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Quoting: KSIxSKULLS
You're in the camp of wait and see so you can take hindsight into the equation when the GMs couldn't. Vancouver won the trade based on the circumstances when the trade happened.


I agree completely, the only real caveat to the "wait to see what happens" is when the GM demonstrates later they had knowledge that most people didn't. Trades need to be evaluated based on the information that was available at the time, but sometimes we can find out later that the GMs involved had information that can change our perception of the deal.

I think with Vancouver, they win the deal against the Islanders, but whether or not they got "good" value will kind of depend on how the assets will be used in a rebuild. If Rutherford fully understands this is a tear down, then priortizing the 1st as an asset above all else is the right move, and a more valuable 1st wasn't likely to be available. If he plans on a 1-2 year turn around, then the deal is a bit underwhelming because the roster player he got back is negative value, and the prospect doesn't have a super high ceiling.

The Islanders virtually can't change my mind. There is no scenario where I can look at this trade and make sense of it. I have heard some saying Lou will just flip Horvat for more than he paid to get him if things don't work out, and while I don't doubt the packages out there will get better closer to the deadline, the thing is that that also means the value of the pick they just gave away will also have gone up, because it will be more of a sure thing to either be in the middle of a deep draft or an unprotected pick for an aging team with an empty prospect cupboard who just missed the playoffs twice in a row. If it doesn't work and they flip Horvat, they enter an offseason where they should clearly start a rebuild without their own first the next year. That's still terrible.
Feb. 2, 2023 at 12:36 p.m.
#138
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Quoting: KennyBoi
Finally the Horvat to BOS trades can stop.

Think Lou overpaid, unless Horvat gets extended which I imagine is the case here.


I honestly don't quite get the idea that extending Horvat just forgives a terrible trade. He is a UFA at year end, even if a team wanted just his signing rights ahead of the draft, that costs what? A 3rd? 2nd at most? So that gets back some of the value, but the price paid is based on him helping now, but this team is likely beyond help for this season. It's not that they can't be a good team, or that Horvat couldn't help, but I don't think people realize just how far out of it they are. There are plenty of scenarios where the Islanders play more like the version of them that went to the conference finals, but that still isn't enough to make it. They realistically need to play at a .700 points percentage to give themselves a good chance, and they didn't have many 30 game stretches at that level even back when they were very good. They need to be better than very good, they need to be excellent. Anything less and they fall short, and basically overpaid for signing rights.
Feb. 2, 2023 at 12:38 p.m.
#139
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Quoting: tkecanuck341
I think the problem with this trade is that now New York is pot committed on re-signing Horvat. Bo's agent can play hardball with Lou and tell him he won't sign for a dollar less than $9M per season at max term. If Lou tell him to kick rocks and Horvat goes to free agency, then the Islanders just got massively fleeced and Lou looks like a moron. If Lou gives him what he asks for, then he's just committed more money than he should have on an extension for a player that may or may not be having a fluke season.


Yeah, that's a scary proposition to me. One of Lou's strengths has been his ability to maximize leverage when he has it, but now he enters a negotiation where he gave the other side maximum leverage before it even started.
Feb. 5, 2023 at 3:13 p.m.
#140
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Actual quote from Lou on Horvat's extension.



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Feb. 5, 2023 at 3:59 p.m.
#141
Bedard23
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Quoting: Danny12357
Vancouver clearly wins this deal, but I don't think either fan base can be too thrilled.

The Islanders make perhaps the worst trade I have seen in years. This deal is tough to swallow for a contender, but for a team where Horvat's addition doesn't even bring them close to even money to make the playoffs, it's just ridiculous. Signing Horvat to an extension is actually likely to make this worse, as Horvat represents the exact type of scenario to create a massive overpayment on an extension. He's going to be 28 at the beginning of a new deal, he is a former captain, he is perceived to be a good 2 way player despite very mediocre defensive metrics and results, he's having a career year, and he is riding high on percentages that aren't likely to be sustainable. He's a good player, but given that he didn't come with an immediate extension, it kind of suggests that he isn't a guarantee to sign, or at the very least it's going to mean paying top dollar, and that isn't something a team in the Islanders situation should be interested in. The fact of the matter is that the Islanders are likely either giving up a mid first in a historically deep draft, or going into 2024 with the NHLs oldest roster after missing the playoffs two years in a row while having no 1st round pick. That is awful asset management. Basically this amounts to Lou just taking a stab and hoping for a miracle, but probably having it blow up in his face.

From Vancouver's point of view, I think they made the right call in trading Horvat given their situation, but the return isn't spectacular, and there is some concern that it signals a quick retool when this roster needs a complete overhaul. Beavillier is negative value right now, he's basically a Pierre Engvall getting paid to be Adrian Kempe. Raty is a good prospect, but represents a safe bet with modest ceiling, so overall the return is a little underwhelming, and could point to signs that Rutherford might try and rush things and turn his tenure in Vancouver into more mediocrity.

Overall Vancouver easily wins the deal, but fans will probably want to see a bit more of the bigger picture before they get too excited, but at least there is a lot of hope on their side of things. The Islanders just reek of desperation, and end up making a deal that might go down as the worst we have seen since Hall for Larsson. Some will try and defend it, but it's not defensible. The reality is that if Lou was going to take a swing this big, it should have been in the years where the Islanders were atop their division with a deep playoff ready roster, letting those teams sink or swim on their own, and then spending this much on a team that has been very mediocre for the last 18 months is just a terrible strategy, no matter how optimistic you are.


The islanders have made infinitely worse trades then this *cough cough* Chara for Yashin
Feb. 6, 2023 at 8:31 a.m.
#142
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Quoting: IconicHawk
The islanders have made infinitely worse trades then this *cough cough* Chara for Yashin


Yeah that was awful. I think this trade is just strange because it isn't about over- or undervaluing a piece in this trade, but more that it seems that Lou completely missed the mark on his valuation of the roster as a whole. If this deal was about Horvat as a go forward piece, then why pay the mid season premium? Why not trade for his rights after the season for a fraction of the cost?

Strange trade overall, we just don't see a lot of head scratchers like this anymore, and I kind of miss them.
Feb. 7, 2023 at 10:14 a.m.
#143
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Quoting: drewjenkins
To be more accurate ... they got the following:

A mid prospect with 3rd line center upside.

A conditional 1st that is lottery protected.

An overpaid cap-dump with 2 years left.

Nothing to write home about TBH.


And Isles got Horvat extended. A top 6 center at 27 years of age in his prime for magic beans yet so many here at first thought Canucks won this deal by A MILE! LMAO
Feb. 7, 2023 at 10:18 a.m.
#144
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Quoting: IconicHawk
The islanders have made infinitely worse trades then this *cough cough* Chara for Yashin


A gritty depth d in Romanov for the 13th overall pick.
Feb. 8, 2023 at 11:05 p.m.
#145
LongtimeLeafsufferer
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Quoting: Koskinen_The_Great
And Isles got Horvat extended. A top 6 center at 27 years of age in his prime for magic beans yet so many here at first thought Canucks won this deal by A MILE! LMAO


We can this discussion in 2031. Is signing a player who will 28.5 years old when his eight year contract starts a good deal? Horvat has been traditionally a 65 point 2nd line centre.
Feb. 10, 2023 at 5:57 p.m.
#146
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Quoting: tkecanuck341
I think the problem with this trade is that now New York is pot committed on re-signing Horvat. Bo's agent can play hardball with Lou and tell him he won't sign for a dollar less than $9M per season at max term. If Lou tell him to kick rocks and Horvat goes to free agency, then the Islanders just got massively fleeced and Lou looks like a moron. If Lou gives him what he asks for, then he's just committed more money than he should have on an extension for a player that may or may not be having a fluke season.


Well, we know now that they did extend him, and clearly that was their intent since they didn’t even wait to see him to play for them, but for me that wouldn’t have been an essential part of the trade. It wasn’t an unreasonable price to pay for the year’s top rental, so if I was Lou I’d have had no qualms about letting him walk if I thought he was asking too much. Better that than saddling yourself with a bad contract for 8 years.
Feb. 10, 2023 at 6:38 p.m.
#147
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Quoting: jr400
Well, we know now that they did extend him, and clearly that was their intent since they didn’t even wait to see him to play for them, but for me that wouldn’t have been an essential part of the trade. It wasn’t an unreasonable price to pay for the year’s top rental, so if I was Lou I’d have had no qualms about letting him walk if I thought he was asking too much. Better that than saddling yourself with a bad contract for 8 years.


Not sure you can say Horvat is top rental when Patrick Kane is still on the market.

I don't think there's any way that Lou was going to let him walk. As he said "It's too long and too much money."
Feb. 11, 2023 at 4:44 p.m.
#148
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Quoting: tkecanuck341
Not sure you can say Horvat is top rental when Patrick Kane is still on the market.

I don't think there's any way that Lou was going to let him walk. As he said "It's too long and too much money."


Horvat almost has as many goals as Kane does points. Horvat plays a premium position. Kane is one of, if not the worst, defensive winger in hockey

Kane obviously has had the far better career, but Horvat was most definitely the top rental available. You could argue Larkin if he were to become available
Feb. 11, 2023 at 4:49 p.m.
#149
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Quoting: mv21227
Horvat almost has as many goals as Kane does points. Horvat plays a premium position. Kane is one of, if not the worst, defensive winger in hockey

Kane obviously has had the far better career, but Horvat was most definitely the top rental available. You could argue Larkin if he were to become available


Vancouver isn't tanking as hard as the Blackhawks. The Canucks have nearly 60 more goals on the season than the Hawks do. Horvat had a better supporting cast than Kane.
Feb. 11, 2023 at 6:03 p.m.
#150
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Quoting: tkecanuck341
Not sure you can say Horvat is top rental when Patrick Kane is still on the market.


Before this season it would have been Kane for sure, but I put Horvat ahead because he’s having a career year while Kane is having his worst season ever. For a rental all you care about is what the guy’s going to do in the next few months, so I’d weigh this season much more heavily than the past (except for knowing what it takes to win three cups – that probably stays with you). Also Kane’s cap hit is much higher, even if Chicago retains 50%, which makes him much less attractive because most contending teams would have to dump salary or involve a third team to afford him.

I forgot about Larkin. There hasn’t been much talk about him. I guess the experts think he’s going to stay in Detroit.
 
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