A logical take on the Horvat trade

Forums/Armchair-GM

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Created by: chealy2

Team: 2022-23 New York Islanders

Initial Creation Date: Jan. 30, 2023

Published: Jan. 30, 2023

Salary Cap Mode: Basic

Description

I'll be honest, I don't know why Lou waited this long to make this trade. HOWEVER, Horvat is just what the Isles need. 31 goals in 49 games and on pace for over 50 on the year, really good on the PP, solid 2-way center. NYI has needed a scorer since the Tavares days, here's our guy, assuming we extend him. I'm not worried about that, Lou has extended every player that he's given a 1st for since coming to Long Island.

For Vancouver's side, they got a solid return. Beauvillier needed a change of scenery so hopefully he can figure things out on the west coast. Raty was our top prospect so it sucks losing him, but if I'm being honest, I don't think he will ever be better than Horvat is right now. Raty will definitely become an everyday NHL guy and will likely be a top 6 center assuming Vancouver doesn't ruin him. I also don't like losing a 1st but we've seen what this core has done in the playoffs in the past after being written off. They're built for the playoffs, hopefully the 2 year difference hasn't taken too much of a toll on them for when that time comes. Just need to make the playoffs first, which I think is possible with the addition of Horvat + injured guys coming back after the break.

Overall, I think it works out for both sides. I'm ready for the Fire Lou mob to come after me because even after trading for an all star, this fanbase is never happy. Hopefully the normal discussion doesn't get drowned out by those that are losing their minds.

Buyouts

Rick DiPietro: $0

Buried

Richard Pánik: $250,000 ($1,375,000)

Draft	Round 1	Round 2	Round 3	Round 4	Round 5	Round 6	Round 7
2023
2024
2025

ROSTER

LONG-TERM OUTLOOK

EMBED

TEXT-EMBED

ROSTER SIZE	SALARY CAP	CAP HIT	OVERAGES	BONUSES	CAP SPACE
22	$82,500,000	$80,153,296	$245,796	$1,287,500	$2,346,704

Left Wing	Centre	Right Wing
Bailey, Josh $5,000,000$5,000,000 RW, LW, C UFA - 2	Horvat, Bo $4,125,000$4,125,000 C UFA - 1	Barzal, Mathew $7,000,000$7,000,000 C, RW UFA - 1
Lee, Anders $7,000,000$7,000,000 LW NTC UFA - 4		Palmieri, Kyle $5,000,000$5,000,000 RW, LW NTC UFA - 3
Parise, Zach $750,000$750,000 ($750,000$750K) LW UFA - 1	Nelson, Brock $6,000,000$6,000,000 C, LW M-NTC UFA - 3	Holmström, Simon $863,333$863,333 RW RFA - 2
Martin, Matt $1,500,000$1,500,000 LW, RW UFA - 2	Pageau, Jean-Gabriel $5,000,000$5,000,000 C M-NTC UFA - 4	Clutterbuck, Cal $1,750,000$1,750,000 RW UFA - 2
Johnston, Ross $1,100,000$1,100,000 LW UFA - 4	Cizikas, Casey $2,500,000$2,500,000 C UFA - 5

Left Defense	Right Defense	Goaltender
Pelech, Adam $5,750,000$5,750,000 LD NTC UFA - 7	Pulock, Ryan $6,150,000$6,150,000 RD NTC UFA - 8	Varlamov, Semyon $5,000,000$5,000,000 G M-NTC UFA - 1
Romanov, Alexander $2,500,000$2,500,000 LD RFA - 3	Dobson, Noah $4,000,000$4,000,000 RD RFA - 3	Sorokin, Ilya $4,000,000$4,000,000 G UFA - 2
Aho, Sebastian $825,000$825,000 LD UFA - 2	Mayfield, Scott $1,450,000$1,450,000 RD UFA - 1
Wotherspoon, Parker $750,000$750,000 LD UFA - 1

Scratches	Injured Reserve (IR)	Long Term IR (LTIR)
	Wahlstrom, Oliver $894,167$894,167 ($537,500$538K) RW RFA - 1
	Fasching, Hudson $750,000$750,000 RW UFA - 1

Jan. 30, 2023 at 8:09 p.m.

bagelbob

Joined: Jul. 2021

Posts: 3,623

Likes: 2,253

people are overvaluing horvat’s production this season. if lou extends him we’re paying him 8x8 or more to most likely be a 60 point player. that’s not “the scorer we need,” that’s just more expensive brock nelson

NMAvsFan, Fox_Czar_Cup and Db1899 liked this.

Jan. 30, 2023 at 8:09 p.m.

pretzelcoatl

n.1 Topias Vilen fan

Joined: Jul. 2021

Posts: 5,910

Likes: 2,572

If you're high on Raty or low on the Isles' future it's super questionable

Jan. 30, 2023 at 8:10 p.m.

Prime_Jimbo

VAN

Joined: Jan. 2022

Posts: 6,129

Likes: 1,875

In the nicest way possible, I hope you guys land 12th in the lottery and age/grind/etc catches up next year and the pick goes top 5 to Van. Boom or bust for NYI in the move. Some risk but worthwhile risk in Raty being a key return for Bo. I wasn't sold they'd get a young C back for him but I'm happy they did.

Jan. 30, 2023 at 8:11 p.m.

aadoyle

Hakuna Matata

Joined: Feb. 2020

Posts: 33,721

Likes: 20,881

imagine the Islanders can't get into a playoff spot, flip Bo Horvat and get a better return
— Omar (@TicTacTOmar) January 30, 2023

And if u think about it Lou could be playing 5D chess

Jan. 30, 2023 at 8:16 p.m.

NMAvsFan

Representing the 505

Joined: Sep. 2020

Posts: 4,485

Likes: 3,677

Horvat is shooting 150% above his career average so he's due to regress. In fact, he only has two goals in his last ten games so it may already be happening. Beware signing players having a career year in a contract year to big-money, long-term deals.

Db1899 and SociallyHawkward liked this.

Jan. 30, 2023 at 8:17 p.m.

NMAvsFan

Representing the 505

Joined: Sep. 2020

Posts: 4,485

Likes: 3,677

Quoting: aadoyle

imagine the Islanders can't get into a playoff spot, flip Bo Horvat and get a better return
— Omar (@TicTacTOmar) January 30, 2023

And if u think about it Lou could be playing 5D chess

Seems like a super risky move to think someone is going to pay him an even higher price than he paid

Jan. 30, 2023 at 8:19 p.m.

AndrewGoalie33

DobsonIsUntouchable

Joined: Jul. 2021

Posts: 761

Likes: 359

It’s not so much the player than it is what we gave up to get the player. After losing 10 out of our last 13, it appeared that the writing was on the wall for this group. This trade feels like a case of the “sunk cost fallacy”

Jan. 30, 2023 at 8:29 p.m.

aadoyle

Hakuna Matata

Joined: Feb. 2020

Posts: 33,721

Likes: 20,881

Quoting: NMAvsFan

Seems like a super risky move to think someone is going to pay him an even higher price than he paid

If Horvat's coming with a Lou extension teams will pay

As Lou is pretty good at getting guys extended for reasonable dollars. Sure there are some duds but its been pretty good

A team like SEA could go **** it and give a good package back for Bo Horvat

Jan. 30, 2023 at 8:32 p.m.

chealy2

Thread Starter

NYI

Joined: Jun. 2021

Posts: 369

Likes: 78

Quoting: AndrewGoalie33

I agree, I'm not really sure why it took so long, but even after losing all those games we're still only 2 points out. And most of those losses came with Pelech/Palmieri out. I still think we have a legitimate shot at the 1st wildcard spot.

Jan. 30, 2023 at 8:34 p.m.

#10

NMAvsFan

Representing the 505

Joined: Sep. 2020

Posts: 4,485

Likes: 3,677

Quoting: aadoyle

Maybe but seems unlikely. Guess we'll find out in a few weeks.

Jan. 30, 2023 at 8:35 p.m.

#11

Ledge_And_Dairy

Joined: Jun. 2019

Posts: 38,250

Likes: 19,514

A few things
1. Like Kadri last year Horvat is definitely producing way above expectation.
2. Horvat is not a strong 2-way player, he is a strong offensive center

This definitely felt like an overpay without an extension. I was honestly expecting a trade more along the lines of Boeser and Bailey

SociallyHawkward liked this.

Jan. 30, 2023 at 8:50 p.m.

#12

Db1899

Joined: Aug. 2021

Posts: 15,020

Likes: 12,091

Quoting: chealy2

the isles have less than a 15% chance at the playoffs. Even with horvat they are closer to a bottom 5 team than a playoff caliber team

Jan. 30, 2023 at 8:58 p.m.

#13

GMBL

Joined: May 2022

Posts: 8,566

Likes: 3,319

Quoting: bagelbob

Horvat is a 2C, so the mistake will be if they pay him like a 1C or not. His production is bound to come down, especially with how things are typically with the Isles, however, he's probably going to be scoring 30-40 goals, and perhaps he stays at the 70-80pts mark in 82 games. I think a slightly better and more expensive Brock Nelson is kind of accurate though. So, if he comes in at 7m it shouldn't be too bad.

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