I ENCOURAGE EVERYONE TO GO READ DANIEL NUGENT BOWMAN'S RECENT Q/A WITH GM KEN HOLLAND OF THE OILERS! This will shed a lot of light into the position the oilers find themselves in.
I think the thing people have to realize is yes, the Oilers need a defenseman, and probably the infamous 3rd line center role again with another winger upfront at the deadline. With the Oilers in win now mode, Holland sat down with Daniel Nugent Bowman (Athletic) and did a Q/A Interview. He stated when asked about spending big on an asset: "The problem is I'm not adding. The guy I'm bringing in has got to be better (than what's on the roster). I'm going to pay a price, right? If your paying a price, it can't be a little, slight improvement. If your going to pay a price, it's got to be a significant improvement over the players that we got."
Let that sink in.
If you do look at the ask that Arizona has on Chychrun, I think you have to think, there asking for payment in exchange for THEIR number 1 defenseman. Keyword is THEIR. On most other teams, especially a playoff team like the Oilers, Chychrun is probably a Number 2 or 3. Same with LA on this. You have to realize that Chychrun is probably a 2 at best, defiantly a 3. and if your asking for payment for a 2-3, it's most likely a 1st, and a high end prospect like a Bourgault, but obviously the trade hasn't happened yet so you have to think. Is Chychrun all the hype? Maybe? Are teams convinced enough he is? I don't think so, cause otherwise someone would have paid that for a number 1 by now.
I think there is a player that fits what Holland knows what we are missing on the backend. We play a bit too edgy if I can read Holland off the interview, and for what your missing, if he wants to pay for someone who absolutely will guarantee check ALL the boxes you need in spending 2 firsts and a 1st round pick-prospect.
I think the one player that is probably in the top 3 for the Norris this year that does do this for the Oilers, is and yes hate me all you want for his horrid contract, Erik Karlsson.
San Jose knows they want out of that contract, and if they want to maximize value on that player, the time is now. I mean he is having a Norris Caliber year. Now yes there was that rumor that Grier wanted 3 firsts, and only 17% retention. No one is doing that, he just did that to gage interest, and typical media they ate it up. I think what people forget to realize is that Grier has almost no leverage in this deal. He knows and everyone knows that this contract is HORRENDOUS. Like top 3 in the league for just garbage contracts, AND what people also forget is Erik Karlsson has a FULL No Movement Clause with his contract. Which means any deal has to be approved by him.
So you can guarantee if the team isn't ready to compete for not just a spot in the playoffs, but lord Stanley, you can bet he Veto's any trade with that. Now who does that leave? To me I'd say there is about 6 teams in the NHL who have a legit chance at going all the way to hoisting the cup. Colorado of course, Tampa maybe? Toronto, Carolina, Boston, and Edmonton. A lot of people think Dallas, Winnipeg, and Vegas should be in this, and maybe there points say so, but I see some big gaps on those teams, and key thing here is they haven't had as much adversity as the other teams.
With that being said, out of the 6 teams I don't see Boston, Tampa, or Toronto being in the running for a player like Karlsson, I'm sure they would like too, but Toronto is Capped out, Boston just acquired Lindholm last year, and Tampa has Hedman, Cernak, and Sergachev all in their top 3. From there Carolina just acquired Burns, so that leaves Colorado, and of course Edmonton who have legit chances.
I think Colorado is interested, but they sure as heck ain't paying anything at all, and you have to think, do they really need Karlsson? I don't think so. Would they like him? Who wouldn't?! He is a number 1, has been his whole career, go look at his stats if you disagree. So that leaves Edmonton.
It's about time for Kenny to fleece someone, he is due after some mid level or poor trades like the one from Detroit. Still having PTSD over that one lol. And Grier knows Ken is his only dance partner on this, and like I and everyone else agree: "If there is a time to do this, it is now." The fact is that Grier will not retain more than 30%, I believe that's his max after he is already above 30% on burns for the next three years. So with this being said, you need a broker. And which team is at the low of the lows, with over 50 Million in usable cap space after next year, our good'ol friends in the windy city, Chicago!
Kyle Davidson has made it clear, it is rebuild central over in Chicago, and picks and prospects are what they want in any form. Rebuilds on average take 3-5 years legitimately, I'm going off of the current Stanley cup champs success in a rebuild. so ideally with 5 years left, Chicago would be willing to entertain this, if especially another 1st is at play, and I believe Rocky Wirtz is the only owner in the NHL Bottom Feeder teams that would allow a GM to retain a large sum on a player that won't play for you over 5 years. Sure as heck wont be Gutierrez in Arizona lol. From here, the key is what will Chicago want to retain this much. My estimation is for another 30% on top of San Jose's previous 30%, is a 1st and a 3rd round pick. Now 1sts this year are worth a premium which is why I am saying a third down the road. Now what will San Jose want? I think probably a 2nd and decent prospect. You might be thinking this is WAYYY to little, but if your Grier, and you have a chance to get some cap off your books, plus get some tradable other assets off your books as well? I would do this all day. I would pay San Jose Barrie, and Foegele plus Lavoie, and a 2nd Round Pick this year (Which is comparable to a late-first last year.) Also remember that San Jose will most likely flip both Barrie and Foegele at either this trade deadline, or next as well. Barrie could get upwards of a 1st next year at the deadline for someone who needs a powerplay specialist Dman.
The Oilers would get a Number 1 defenseman in Erik Karlsson at 5.635 Million. and you would save a Million bucks or just shy of it too go get a guy like Noel Acciari off the Blues
I know this has been long but let me know what you think! Do you think this could be a doable thing for all three teams? Let me know in the comments!
Trades
1.
EDM
Retention on Cap Hit of Erik Karlsson via San Jose (30% Retention so 2.415 Million over the next 5 Years)
CHI
2023 1st round pick (EDM)
2025 3rd round pick (EDM)
Additional Details:
**Top 10 Protected 2023 1st Round Pick**
**Edmonton has the option to send their Third Round Pick in 2026 or 2025.**
That's a lot of big braining, but in the end, I dont think San Jose is going to go from asking for 3 1sts to getting table scraps for the current Norris front runner
That's a lot of big braining, but in the end, I dont think San Jose is going to go from asking for 3 1sts to getting table scraps for the current Norris front runner
I think you have a point here, and I appreciate the complement on what I was trying to do. I think it comes down too, does San Jose want to ride out the Contract for 5 more years, Or do they want to officially say rebuild mode is on and get some assets back while you can. I think he slows down quite a bit next year for the Oilers or San Jose. Definitely hard to do the whole Norris thing twice lol.
Nice thoughts, and you took your time with it, too. Awesome.
I see what you're saying about Chych being 2 or 3 on a team like LA or EDM, but hear me out here;
27pts in 35 games while being able to eat like 22+ minutes a night definitely isn't a 2 or 3 defenseman "at best".
Teams are mostly going to be iffy on Chychrun because of his injury history. His last "full" season was in 2019-20 where he played 66 games. It's unclear if he can remain healthy moving forward.
It's clear he wants out, and AZ might have to part with a 1st and a mid/high tier prospect. I think if EDM waved a 1st and Broberg in front of their faces long enough they might bite. But does Holland want to do that?
Edmonton needs to take a step here, if they want to bring a cup to McDavid, and I think bringing in a big defensive name could do that.
That being said, I don't know if EK is the solution? Chych plays a more dominant 2-way game while being able to produce offensively, while EK is a one man offensive powerhouse.
I'm not saying Chychrun is the answer, either, but a good food for thought is that EK is also 32 and very injury prone. One wrong move and he's out. Do you want to take that risk? I mean, if you're throwing that many assets at EK, and at other teams to retain, wouldn't you just rather grab Chychrun?
I think a safer option (if Holland doesn't want to spend) would be to grab a low cost, effective rental like Maatta and maybe a good middle6/top6 forward and go for another run.
well, you definitly took a lot of time a lot of thoughts on this, and i respect that. Unfortunaly its ridiculous and will never happen
Fair, I am being an optimist on the San Jose Return here but honestly I don't think I'm that far off. If it's a 1st and Niemelainen or Lavoie going to San Jose plus Barrie, and Foegele, I think deal is done. Grier will bight the bullet, he did on Burns. And Like I said, the Oilers know unless some contender like Toronto moves heaven and earth to get a deal done, they are the only dance partners for San Jose who legitimately are set-up to do this.
Nice thoughts, and you took your time with it, too. Awesome.
I see what you're saying about Chych being 2 or 3 on a team like LA or EDM, but hear me out here;
27pts in 35 games while being able to eat like 22+ minutes a night definitely isn't a 2 or 3 defenseman "at best".
Teams are mostly going to be iffy on Chychrun because of his injury history. His last "full" season was in 2019-20 where he played 66 games. It's unclear if he can remain healthy moving forward.
It's clear he wants out, and AZ might have to part with a 1st and a mid/high tier prospect. I think if EDM waved a 1st and Broberg in front of their faces long enough they might bite. But does Holland want to do that?
Edmonton needs to take a step here, if they want to bring a cup to McDavid, and I think bringing in a big defensive name could do that.
That being said, I don't know if EK is the solution? Chych plays a more dominant 2-way game while being able to produce offensively, while EK is a one man offensive powerhouse.
I'm not saying Chychrun is the answer, either, but a good food for thought is that EK is also 32 and very injury prone. One wrong move and he's out. Do you want to take that risk? I mean, if you're throwing that many assets at EK, and at other teams to retain, wouldn't you just rather grab Chychrun?
I think a safer option (if Holland doesn't want to spend) would be to grab a low cost, effective rental like Maatta and maybe a good middle6/top6 forward and go for another run.
I appreciate the thought here! Yea I agree that's probably what is holding teams back on Chychrun, I just can't see him holding up Number 1 or 2 minutes forever. I think if the Yotes did want anyone I think it would be Broberg but I think ideally they want to bring in a guy like Karlsson to mentor Bouchard and Broberg, similar to what Keith did. I just think the Defence plays a bit to edgy like I said and from what I read into Hollands interview, I think I'm close, and nothing like a Vet Dman too calm things down on the blueline. That's what Erik Johnson is for Colorado, and Giordano for the Leafs. I do think it's needed for success.
Either way I think the oilers acquiring Chychrun would be good and a bit of an upgrade for sure, I just don't think it wins us a cup, and if that's the case 2 firsts and a class A prospect is a bit rich for me. If it was a Bourgault/Shaefer and a 1st like you said, thats a good deal in my opinion. I'm sure holland is probably thinking the same thing we are! lol.
If you're aware of how he's playing then why is this the proposed return?
I think the thing I'm trying to highlight in this proposal, is how little leverage San Jose has with Karlsson. Sure he is playing like a Norris Defenseman, but with five years left, and at age 32, he won't probably produce like this ever again. He will be steady but Norris play twice or three times in the future? I find that a bit tough to swallow. Plus almost 20 teams will I find be guaranteeing needing a broker to take on his contract. If he was a 7 Million dollar defenseman, three firsts would be totally accurate, but he is at 11.5 Million in a cap strapped league. And for what teams are looking for, I just think there is very few teams looking to make a move for him. I think this deadline will be all about Wingers, or rental Dman.
I'm sure Sharks GM would love to have that conversation with his owner.
" Oh by the way, would you please pay Norris trophy winning Defenseman Erik Karlsson $23 million to not play for us? Mmmmkkkkkk? Thanks a bunch."
Doh. I read it wrong. Chicago is paying some of it. Well then yeah. It's totally happening.
And yes your reading it wrong, they are giving up 2.415 in cap for the next five years. When they have over 50 Million next year. They will gladly look at this cause lets face it. There just crap and a first is there only hope.
You think San Jose has leverage, they don't. That's the whole point in all this. Is to show people that Karlsson is actually holding all the cards with that NMC he is waiving in front of Grier's face, Not the Oilers, Not the Sharks, But Karlsson. Also if you wanna clown, go to someone else's post. I bet you think Dylan Larkin is comparable to Leon Draisaitl.
You think San Jose has leverage, they don't. That's the whole point in all this. Is to show people that Karlsson is actually holding all the cards with that NMC he is waiving in front of Grier's face, Not the Oilers, Not the Sharks, But Karlsson. Also if you wanna clown, go to someone else's post. I bet you think Dylan Larkin is comparable to Leon Draisaitl.
Lol San Jose isn’t retaining $20 mil for a bunch of garbage in return
Lavoie is worth a 1st in himself, he is playing AMAZING this year and he shoulda went in the first the year he was drafted. Barrie has constantly played like he is worth 4.5 Million, and you watch the Oilers or someone will flip him for a 1st next year at the deadline. Look what there asking for Dman out of Colombus, and Barrie is two fold better than him. And Foegele a lot of people like, he is just overpaid. And like I said, a 2nd this year is like a late first last year. 2023 is deep as heck.
Lavoie is worth a 1st in himself, he is playing AMAZING this year and he shoulda went in the first the year he was drafted. Barrie has constantly played like he is worth 4.5 Million, and you watch the Oilers or someone will flip him for a 1st next year at the deadline. Look what there asking for Dman out of Colombus, and Barrie is two fold better than him. And Foegele a lot of people like, he is just overpaid. And like I said, a 2nd this year is like a late first last year. 2023 is deep as heck.
Lavoie never should have been in 1st and his attitude is as issue, guys like that struggle in the pros if they get there. Barrie is moved for cap reasons here I’m sure. A 2nd still isn’t a 1st, it’s a pick in the 60ish mark so get real there. And Foegle is a checking line 4th liner. There’s no value here at all. I don’t see San Jose moving Karlsson for that even if they didn’t have to retain $20 MILLION. Just very unrealistic when the ask was 3 1st for 18% retention and yet there’s not a 1st in the offer and double the retention
Fair, I am being an optimist on the San Jose Return here but honestly I don't think I'm that far off. If it's a 1st and Niemelainen or Lavoie going to San Jose plus Barrie, and Foegele, I think deal is done. Grier will bight the bullet, he did on Burns. And Like I said, the Oilers know unless some contender like Toronto moves heaven and earth to get a deal done, they are the only dance partners for San Jose who legitimately are set-up to do this.
i just dont seenit personally, i dont think its worth it for grier to retain for that long. if karlson is traded, iis gonna be in the offseason. he knows not enough team can afford him otherwise, he would get much more interest and bidders and a better offer when there is more teams who can afford him.
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