As we assess prices for deadline trades, keep this in mind how rare top prospects get traded with a 1st round pick attached.
First, here some NJ prospects, and using three rankings: Corey Pronman, McKeens (among non-NHLers) and the Hockey News (for historical purposes you'll see below). There are plenty of others out there, so feel free to use your own.
Now, here are the list of forwards that have been traded for a top-25 prospect and a 1st round pick in the cap era (using the Hockey News rankings since they go back decades):
2012: Rick Nash: Erixon, Anisimov, Dubinsky, 1st (Erixon was #17 in 2012)
2013: Bobby Ryan: Silfverberg, Noesen, 1st (Silfverberg was #18 and Noeson #67 in 2013)
2018: Ryan O'Reilly: Thompson, 1st, 2nd, minor pieces (Tage was #24 in 2017)
2021: Jack Eichel: Krebs, Tuch, 1st, 2nd (Krebs was #18 in 2021)
None were deadline deals. All had multiples years on their contracts. (And none included a top-10 prospect).
Now, how about the deals with prospects in 26-50 range (that were dealt with a 1st):
2006: Pavel Demitra: Patrick O'Sullivan, 1st (O'Sullivan was #47 in 2004)
2007: Peter Forsberg: Upshall, Parent, 1st (Upshall was #48 in 2006)
2007: Ryan Smyth: O'Marra, Nilsson, 1st (O'Marra was #36 in 2006)
2010: Ilya Kovalchuk: Oduya, Cormier, Bergfors, 1st (Cormier was #30 in 2010, Bergfors #49 in 2007)
2011: Dustin Penner: Teubert, 1st, 3rd (Teubert was #48 in 2011)
2013: Jason Pominville: Hackett, Larsson, 1st, 2nd (Hacket was #35, Larsson was #38 in 2012)
2019: Taylor Hall: Bahl, Merkley, Schnarr, 1st, 3rd (Merkley was #49 in 2018)
2020: Blake Coleman: Foote, 1st (Foote was #28 in 2020)
2022: Kevin Fiala: Faber, 1st (Faber was #41 in 2022)
If you jump up to the deals that included 51-100 ranked prospects, the list expands by about three dozen. That range seems to be the sweet spot where prospects more often get dealt.
(the lists will vary a bit as definitions of "prospect" are not uniform and different people have different rankings. But you get the idea)
You've really hit the nail in the head. Holtz being traded, nevermind Luke or Nemec, would be a huge deal.
My only nitpick is THN as a source, their prospect rankings are awful. Stillman in the top 100 over Gritsyuk is an abhorrently bad take. I'd recommend taking a look at The Hockey Writers' recent top 100 list instead; they ranked Holtz 8th this year, along with Luke 1st and Nemec top 5.
“Will get less than Debrincat got” “they won’t get back a 7th overall player” . Well of course they won’t . Holtz isn’t even worth the 7th overall at this point
You've really hit the nail in the head. Holtz being traded, nevermind Luke or Nemec, would be a huge deal.
My only nitpick is THN as a source, their prospect rankings are awful. Stillman in the top 100 over Gritsyuk is an abhorrently bad take. I'd recommend taking a look at The Hockey Writers' recent top 100 list instead; they ranked Holtz 8th this year, along with Luke 1st and Nemec top 5.
The reason I used The Hockey News was they have lists going back decades. Probably not the best year-to-year, but they have used same methodology for years.
I think new jersey should just stay with their prospects. I'm 2 years they will be amazing. But I will keep trying to trade you Boeser and Garland. I wish vancouver had this talent coming up.
“Will get less than Debrincat got” “they won’t get back a 7th overall player” . Well of course they won’t . Holtz isn’t even worth the 7th overall at this point
Not sure how you got DeBrincat comp out of this post.
But if it needs to be said, Holtz > Korchinski. 2023 1st > 2022 2nd.
What argument is he strawmanning? At no point does he claim that he is refuting any argument. He is simply explaining why he thinks Holtz being traded would be out of the ordinary.
Interested to hear why you'd say that.
Assuming the time it'd take for either guy to make the NHL, I'd think Korchinski is a fair bit more valuable than Holtz at this point in time.
Interested to hear why you'd say that.
Assuming the time it'd take for either guy to make the NHL, I'd think Korchinski is a fair bit more valuable than Holtz at this point in time.
I disagree. I think Korchinski was a slight reach at 7, and I think Holtz still has the upside he was picked for
Interested to hear why you'd say that.
Assuming the time it'd take for either guy to make the NHL, I'd think Korchinski is a fair bit more valuable than Holtz at this point in time.
It was a comparison of DeBrincat trade vs Meier Trade values and the whole "it will cost less than DeBrincat" thing. So my point was really about Holtz's value vs the 7th pick value last year (which become Korchinski). But, yes, Holtz more value today than Korchinski.
I'd like to see Korchinski in pro hockey before putting him in top-10, top-20 prospect conversation.
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Holtz,
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