Cap Hit Calculations
SEASON INITIAL BASE SALARY INITIAL CAP HIT SIGNING BONUS BUYOUT COST POST-BUYOUT EARNINGS SAVINGS CAP HIT (Logo of the Edmonton OilersEDM)
2023-24 $5,000,000 $5,000,000 $1,000,000 $1,541,667 $2,541,667 $3,458,333 $1,541,667
2024-25 $5,400,000 $5,000,000 $0 $1,541,667 $1,541,667 $3,858,333 $1,141,667
2025-26 $4,200,000 $5,000,000 $0 $1,541,667 $1,541,667 $2,658,333 $2,341,667
2026-27 $3,900,000 $5,000,000 $0 $1,541,667 $1,541,667 $2,358,333 $2,641,667
2027-28 $0 $0 $0 $1,541,667 $1,541,667 -$1,541,667 $1,541,667
2028-29 $0 $0 $0 $1,541,667 $1,541,667 -$1,541,667 $1,541,667
2029-30 $0 $0 $0 $1,541,667 $1,541,667 -$1,541,667 $1,541,667
2030-31 $0 $0 $0 $1,541,667 $1,541,667 -$1,541,667 $1,541,667
TOTAL $18,500,000 $20,000,000 $1,000,000 $12,333,333 $13,333,333 $6,166,667 $13,833,336
Cap Hit Calculations
SEASON INITIAL BASE SALARY INITIAL CAP HIT SIGNING BONUS BUYOUT COST POST-BUYOUT EARNINGS SAVINGS CAP HIT (Logo of the Edmonton OilersEDM)
2023-24 $3,250,000 $2,750,000 $0 $1,083,334 $1,083,334 $2,166,666 $583,334
2024-25 $0 $0 $0 $1,083,334 $1,083,334 -$1,083,334 $1,083,334
TOTAL $3,250,000 $2,750,000 $0 $2,166,667 $2,166,667 $1,083,333 $1,666,668
Karlsson's cap hit is 11.5M. That means this trade and the subsequent buyouts would free up 9M or more in cap for the next four seasons compared to keeping Karlsson.
It's the next off season that is important in terms of cap, and maybe the one after that. That 9M will enable them to get multiple picks and prospects either through taking bad contracts, taking good players on expiring contracts who other teams need to dump (and flipping them at the deadline), or by trading for good young players at a discount because other teams have to move them.
The response is going to be San Jose doesn't have to move Karlsson, he is playing really good. They don't benefit from his play because they are nowhere close to being a contender. It's a detriment to them because they want to finish as low as possible. There is also no guarantee he continues this level of play due to his extensive injury history. If he gets hurt again, they are back in the situation where he is an 11.5M anchor. The fact that Karlsson is having one of the greatest post-Orr OFD seasons of all time, and we still hear how difficult it is to move him should help prove this. The risk of his contract and term is very high, even if the reward of his current level of play is also high. If a team acquires him without significant cap considerations, and he goes back to being an anchor, that can destroy that team's chance of winning in the current tight cap environment. Saying it is a massive risk would be an understatement. Surprisingly, on a site NAMED AFTER THE SALARY CAP, that point seems to be lost in a lot of the Karlsson threads. People only look at the short term with his trades, not the entire picture.