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Meier wo extension at TDL - QO outlook worst case

Created by: vikhodush
Team: 2023-24 Carolina Hurricanes
Initial Creation Date: Feb. 15, 2023
Published: Feb. 15, 2023
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Description
Purpose of this is to look at worst case if the Canes went after Timo without extension talks happening as part of the initial trade. Wanted to see what Timo's QO would look like if they couldn't strike a long-term extension and didn't want to trade him either. I think this proves it's easily workable, although obviously not ideal.

The following year (2 years really) are where things could get trickier as a lot of core guys are due raises, but I still think the Canes maintain a ton of flexibility and can make it work. In two years you'd need (conservative estimates, let me know if you feel differently):

Aho + 2m, Necas + 4m, Jarvis +3m (bridge deal), Pesce +3m, Skjei +2m, Chat +2m = 16m for important pieces.

You'll have an extra 5m from the cap, 1.8m from Marty, 5.4m if you let Turbo walk = a little over 12m. If they were to keep Meier somehow long term after that (would be weird if he doesn't agree to a long-term deal before QO but does the following season), you'd probably get 1-1.5m AAV savings there. So we'd probably need to let somebody else like Skjei go which would be fine if Nikishin actually does come over in 2 years. Or, you could use Meier's 10m and now you have 22m, or 17m if you extend Turbo at a similar rate instead.

So it seems like there are plenty of options whether Timo extends or signs a QO with us both next year and when raises are due for our core. We could also trade him during offseason to recoup some of the assets we spent on him.

Let me know if I missed anything in my breakdown above or didn't factor something in properly. Was just an exercise to see how this would play out because I'm honestly bored out of my mind waiting for something to go down :)
Free Agent Signings
RFAYEARSCAP HIT
1$10,000,000
UFAYEARSCAP HIT
2$2,500,000
2$2,500,000
2$3,500,000
2$3,000,000
1$1,000,000
2$2,750,000
1$850,000
Trades
CAR
  1. Meier, Timo [RFA Rights]
Additional Details:
No retention, no extension talks as part of the deal = lesser return
SJS
  1. Morrow, Scott [Reserve List]
  2. 2023 1st round pick (CAR)
  3. 2024 2nd round pick (PHI)
DraftRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7
2023
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2024
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2025
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Logo of the CAR
ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
23$83,500,000$82,979,417$450,000$500,000$520,583

Roster

Left WingCentreRight Wing
$10,000,000$10,000,000
LW, RW
UFA - 8
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$8,460,250$8,460,250
C
UFA - 1
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$5,400,000$5,400,000
LW, RW
M-NTC
UFA - 1
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$7,750,000$7,750,000
LW, RW
UFA - 6
Logo of the Carolina Hurricanes
$3,000,000$3,000,000
RW
RFA - 1
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$894,167$894,167 (Performance Bonus$500,000$500K)
RW
RFA - 1
Logo of the Carolina Hurricanes
$1,000,000$1,000,000
LW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Carolina Hurricanes
$4,820,000$4,820,000
C
UFA - 7
$2,750,000$2,750,000
LW, RW
UFA - 5
Logo of the Carolina Hurricanes
$1,800,000$1,800,000
LW, RW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Carolina Hurricanes
$2,500,000$2,500,000
C, LW
UFA - 4
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$2,500,000$2,500,000
RW
UFA - 2
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
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$5,300,000$5,300,000
LD
M-NTC
UFA - 2
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$5,280,000$5,280,000
RD
M-NTC
UFA - 2
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$2,000,000$2,000,000
G
UFA - 4
Logo of the Carolina Hurricanes
$5,250,000$5,250,000
LD
M-NTC
UFA - 1
Logo of the Carolina Hurricanes
$4,025,000$4,025,000
RD
M-NTC
UFA - 1
$3,500,000$3,500,000
G
UFA - 4
$3,000,000$3,000,000
LD/RD
UFA - 1
Logo of the Carolina Hurricanes
$762,500$762,500
RD
UFA - 1
ScratchesInjured Reserve (IR)Long Term IR (LTIR)
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$850,000$850,000
LD/RD
UFA - 1
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$925,000$925,000
C
RFA - 1
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$762,500$762,500
LW, RW
UFA - 1

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Feb. 15, 2023 at 12:55 p.m.
#1
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Even without the extension I think he goes for more. He's already reached 30 goals on the year. Late 1st, okay prospect and next years 2nd probably wouldn't do it or Carolina would have this done by now. Honestly even the QO for him which I believe is 95% of his salary so 9.5m is not outrageous for him. So you do get him for an extra year no matter what. Worst case scenario you deal him to a team at the draft for a 1st++ who can afford him. Not sure everyone sees how valuable he truly is especially as an RFA
Feb. 15, 2023 at 1:00 p.m.
#2
GM Tom Dundon
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I don’t think Morrow is considered a ‘okay prospect’. I think the scouting community at large would view him in an upper tier of high upside RHD prospects.

NJ has already said they want an extension first, and what are they going to give up realistically? A similar 1st + Holtz? I highly suspect they come off of their D prospects…they are going to need those guys on their ELCs in the coming years.

Vegas doesn’t have prospects and picks to trade unless they give up Brisson which I’m not clear they will.

Toronto - Knies??? Robertson??? Will they even trade their first? Will it be the end of Nylander after next year if they re-sign Meier.

Quoting: In_it_to_winnik
Even without the extension I think he goes for more. He's already reached 30 goals on the year. Late 1st, okay prospect and next years 2nd probably wouldn't do it or Carolina would have this done by now. Honestly even the QO for him which I believe is 95% of his salary so 9.5m is not outrageous for him. So you do get him for an extra year no matter what. Worst case scenario you deal him to a team at the draft for a 1st++ who can afford him. Not sure everyone sees how valuable he truly is especially as an RFA
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Feb. 15, 2023 at 1:02 p.m.
#3
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Quoting: In_it_to_winnik
Even without the extension I think he goes for more. He's already reached 30 goals on the year. Late 1st, okay prospect and next years 2nd probably wouldn't do it or Carolina would have this done by now. Honestly even the QO for him which I believe is 95% of his salary so 9.5m is not outrageous for him. So you do get him for an extra year no matter what. Worst case scenario you deal him to a team at the draft for a 1st++ who can afford him. Not sure everyone sees how valuable he truly is especially as an RFA


Agree with most of it but morrow is considered substantially more than an okay prospect. I’m sure you could tweak the offer a bit but that would be the core of it. Basing it off of Fiala or Cat and it’s in that ballpark.
Feb. 15, 2023 at 1:26 p.m.
#4
Habs4Ever
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SJ should jump on that
It's a no brainer for me

NJ could offer : Holtz + 1st + Bahl
CAR : Morrow + 1st + PHI 2nd

Do you want a really good forward prospect or defenseman prospect

You choose from there IMO
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Feb. 15, 2023 at 1:30 p.m.
#5
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Quoting: TheRealisticGuy
SJ should jump on that
It's a no brainer for me

NJ could offer : Holtz + 1st + Bahl
CAR : Morrow + 1st + PHI 2nd

Do you want a really good forward prospect or defenseman prospect

You choose from there IMO


I’ve asked that question on here to SJS fans and seems they’d rather go for D prospect. Not sure how much higher they’d rank Holtz compared to morrow when you factor in positional preferences.
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Feb. 15, 2023 at 1:31 p.m.
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Quoting: Caniac555
I don’t think Morrow is considered a ‘okay prospect’. I think the scouting community at large would view him in an upper tier of high upside RHD prospects.

NJ has already said they want an extension first, and what are they going to give up realistically? A similar 1st + Holtz? I highly suspect they come off of their D prospects…they are going to need those guys on their ELCs in the coming years.

Vegas doesn’t have prospects and picks to trade unless they give up Brisson which I’m not clear they will.

Toronto - Knies??? Robertson??? Will they even trade their first? Will it be the end of Nylander after next year if they re-sign Meier.


I'm probably under-rating morrow. I have difficulty rating prospects I'm the NCAA. I don't know why the sharks aren't giving permission to talk with team about an extention. You are 100% correct that they have the best prospect pool and assets to take a run at him. All the other teams are going to have to offer up multiple 1sts since they don't have the same prospect pool.

Would anyone be shock to see Vagas giving or 3 1sts at this point? I wouldn't.

Carolina and Toronto are in similar situations in terms of cap space and both being top teams in the league. They both have assets to make a deal happen (2 1st++). Toronto probably has a leg up in the race since they need a winger more than Carolina. I expect to see them in on O'Reilly/Hayes/Henrique. Good 2 way guys who fit RBs system.

I'll be very intrigued to see how this ends and what Carolina does. Honestly even garland I could see as a target. They always seem to make a big move
Feb. 15, 2023 at 1:34 p.m.
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Quoting: vikhodush
I’ve asked that question on here to SJS fans and seems they’d rather go for D prospect. Not sure how much higher they’d rank Holtz compared to morrow when you factor in positional preferences.


Don’t forget those same SJS sharks fans also believe the conversation starts at 1st/Jarvis 😂
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Feb. 15, 2023 at 1:35 p.m.
#8
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Quoting: vikhodush
Agree with most of it but morrow is considered substantially more than an okay prospect. I’m sure you could tweak the offer a bit but that would be the core of it. Basing it off of Fiala or Cat and it’s in that ballpark.


I'm assuming meier is more valuable than those two. He's a new aged powerforward. Also they got awful value back. Especially mini got robbed. What was it late 1st and good d prospect?? I still get frustrated that's all he went for. But if you base it on that than I can get in board with this offer.
Feb. 15, 2023 at 1:37 p.m.
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Quoting: RV23
Don’t forget those same SJS sharks fans also believe the conversation starts at 1st/Jarvis 😂


Lol they’ve seemed to come off that a bit since it doesn’t seem like canes or devs are gonna include certain guys. But you’ll still find more than enough of those outlandish offers on here
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Feb. 15, 2023 at 1:37 p.m.
#10
Hakuna Matata
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Quoting: TheRealisticGuy
SJ should jump on that
It's a no brainer for me

NJ could offer : Holtz + 1st + Bahl
CAR : Morrow + 1st + PHI 2nd

Do you want a really good forward prospect or defenseman prospect

You choose from there IMO


I feel NJ gonna offer one of Nemec or Hughes in the end as its gonna be a bidding war between what what i feel will be the final 2 Toronto and them


As if Toronto does include Sandin got to think NJ needs to beat him out with a higher prospect. As while Holtz looked good in the AHL last year hasnt done much this year.

Now someone else might come in and just send 2 1sts and prospects to beat them out but I dont see it
Feb. 15, 2023 at 1:39 p.m.
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Quoting: aadoyle
I feel NJ gonna offer one of Nemec or Hughes in the end as its gonna be a bidding war between Toronto and them

As if Toronto does include Sandin got to think NJ needs to beat him out with a higher prospect. As while Holtz looked good in the AHL last year hasnt done much this year.


I PROMISE NJ won’t go insane on this. The front office wants him, but not going to go full blown nuclear either.
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Feb. 15, 2023 at 1:40 p.m.
#12
Habs4Ever
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Quoting: aadoyle
I feel NJ gonna offer one of Nemec or Hughes in the end as its gonna be a bidding war between what what i feel will be the final 2 Toronto and them


As if Toronto does include Sandin got to think NJ needs to beat him out with a higher prospect. As while Holtz looked good in the AHL last year hasnt done much this year.

Now someone else might come in and just send 2 1sts and prospects to beat them out but I dont see it


IMO Holtz & Morrow have more value than Sandin but I might be wrong, especially for Sandin/Morrow
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Feb. 15, 2023 at 1:41 p.m.
#13
Hakuna Matata
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Quoting: RV23
I PROMISE NJ won’t go insane on this. The front office wants him, but not going to go full blown nuclear either.


They want an extension though so that will increase the price.

If NJ goes with Holtz but another team beats that offer if they really want him Nemec will get it done
Feb. 15, 2023 at 1:42 p.m.
#14
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Quoting: TheRealisticGuy
IMO Holtz & Morrow have more value than Sandin but I might be wrong, especially for Sandin/Morrow


I dont see how a struggling wing and Morrow who hasnt played an NHL game has more value than a 22 year old LD playing top 4 in Toronto.

A good example of just how good Sandin is (Watch the DAL vs. TOR 5 on 3 PK) or when he delivered the reverse hit on Wheeler

Like when I checked his stats I went huh as despite being 5'11 this kid is physical
Feb. 15, 2023 at 1:43 p.m.
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Quoting: In_it_to_winnik
I'm assuming meier is more valuable than those two. He's a new aged powerforward. Also they got awful value back. Especially mini got robbed. What was it late 1st and good d prospect?? I still get frustrated that's all he went for. But if you base it on that than I can get in board with this offer.


Every situation is unique but I think you can certainly make the case to use those as a decent baseline. Can make the argument Timo is more valuable but Cat was coming off of a monster season and his QO is lower. Either way I think the players are roughly in the same tier and the situations have a bunch of similarities to the point that you can use those deals.
Feb. 15, 2023 at 1:44 p.m.
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Quoting: aadoyle
They want an extension though so that will increase the price.

If NJ goes with Holtz but another team beats that offer if they really want him Nemec will get it done


We wouldn’t go to that extent, we’d let whatever team beat our offer win. Our team reporters are saying their sources have said “Hughes and Nemec are untouchable. Absolute non-starter”. You gotta ask yourself when does a team draft somebody 2OA and then trade said player within 12 months? It just doesn’t happen.
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Feb. 15, 2023 at 1:44 p.m.
#17
GM Tom Dundon
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First off, I’m never shocked by what Vegas will do. Itd be dumb to continue this trend because at some point they will be bottom dwellers with no prospects incoming.

I would like to add that Carolina and Toronto are not in the same position cap wise. The Canes have $10m in LTIR overage to use, while Toronto only has $1.1m. I realize Toronto can make some moves to increase that amount, but not much more than about 5.5-6m. Leafs would have to make moves and/or ask for retention or contracts to go back. Canes would not.

Canes and Knights (if they put Stone on LTIR) are the only buying contender teams in large enough LTIR overage spots to afford Meier without any help needed. Other teams like Buffalo, Jets, and Wild could as well but doesn’t seem like they’re in it.

Quoting: In_it_to_winnik
I'm probably under-rating morrow. I have difficulty rating prospects I'm the NCAA. I don't know why the sharks aren't giving permission to talk with team about an extention. You are 100% correct that they have the best prospect pool and assets to take a run at him. All the other teams are going to have to offer up multiple 1sts since they don't have the same prospect pool.

Would anyone be shock to see Vagas giving or 3 1sts at this point? I wouldn't.

Carolina and Toronto are in similar situations in terms of cap space and both being top teams in the league. They both have assets to make a deal happen (2 1st++). Toronto probably has a leg up in the race since they need a winger more than Carolina. I expect to see them in on O'Reilly/Hayes/Henrique. Good 2 way guys who fit RBs system.

I'll be very intrigued to see how this ends and what Carolina does. Honestly even garland I could see as a target. They always seem to make a big move
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Feb. 15, 2023 at 1:47 p.m.
#18
GM Tom Dundon
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Why would Toronto trade him then? This is the issue I see for a few teams when it comes to Meier - subtracting from their club today. Canes and Knights won’t have to do that.

Quoting: aadoyle
I dont see how a struggling wing and Morrow who hasnt played an NHL game has more value than a 22 year old LD playing top 4 in Toronto.

A good example of just how good Sandin is (Watch the DAL vs. TOR 5 on 3 PK) or when he delivered the reverse hit on Wheeler

Like when I checked his stats I went huh as despite being 5'11 this kid is physical
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Feb. 15, 2023 at 1:48 p.m.
#19
Hakuna Matata
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Quoting: Caniac555
Why would Toronto trade him then? This is the issue I see for a few teams when it comes to Meier - subtracting from their club today. Canes and Knights won’t have to do that.


I dont but apparently people like hey lets throw Sandin in to make our package better. Makes no sense but unless Dubas has a backup plan for LD then it could work idk

Like if we get Meier then go trade for McCabe I guess you can say its fine.

But in general if Toronto went 1ST + Sandin + Knies, NJ would be the team going hey want Nemec
Feb. 15, 2023 at 2:45 p.m.
#20
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This is a fair return for Meier, however I don’t see why San Jose would move Meier without an extension in place and miss out on additional assets coming back
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Feb. 15, 2023 at 2:47 p.m.
#21
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Quoting: glarson17
This is a fair return for Meier, however I don’t see why San Jose would move Meier without an extension in place and miss out on additional assets coming back


I don’t either but I also thought we’d get to the stage with the 2-3 interested teams that SJS are comfortable with returns at this point. More my impatience than anything else as I’d think it’s a missed opportunity if they don’t get an extension done.
Feb. 15, 2023 at 2:54 p.m.
#22
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Quoting: vikhodush
I don’t either but I also thought we’d get to the stage with the 2-3 interested teams that SJS are comfortable with returns at this point. More my impatience than anything else as I’d think it’s a missed opportunity if they don’t get an extension done.


Yeah I’m not sure what all is going on, sounds like he hasn’t talked extension with any teams yet. I think Grier wants to feel out all the appropriate offers and go from there. Who knows though, typically the sharks are pretty tight lipped as an org on this stuff
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Feb. 15, 2023 at 2:57 p.m.
#23
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Quoting: vikhodush
I’ve asked that question on here to SJS fans and seems they’d rather go for D prospect. Not sure how much higher they’d rank Holtz compared to morrow when you factor in positional preferences.


Ideally we get a deal that helps both. SJ needs a high end RD prospect in the pipeline with Merkley not working out, but they will also need a scoring winger prospect especially if they are shipping out Meier. They could also get that RD prospect if they're shipping out Karlsson (much harder to do)
So 1st+morrow + a winger prospect?
Grier is reportedly asking for the moon or else a deal would have already gone through. Their camp reportedly considered Nemec a "A/B tweener" and Holtz a B prospect, which says their bar for A vs B prospects is crazy high. So I bet they think Morrow would be a B and then they'd want another B thrown in, which could be that forward. I'm not saying Grier will get this ask. I am one of those that thinks neither Karlsson or Meier will get moved because Grier wants to keep them and only will move them for overpays
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Feb. 15, 2023 at 2:58 p.m.
#24
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Quoting: glarson17
Yeah I’m not sure what all is going on, sounds like he hasn’t talked extension with any teams yet. I think Grier wants to feel out all the appropriate offers and go from there. Who knows though, typically the sharks are pretty tight lipped as an org on this stuff


GMDW made some cheeky remarks about Grier and said he loves the guy so I translate that to mean we’re deep into talks lol
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Feb. 15, 2023 at 3:00 p.m.
#25
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Quoting: poeticentropy
Ideally we get a deal that helps both. SJ needs a high end RD prospect in the pipeline with Merkley not working out, but they will also need a scoring winger prospect especially if they are shipping out Meier. They could also get that RD prospect if they're shipping out Karlsson (much harder to do)
So 1st+morrow + a winger prospect?
Grier is reportedly asking for the moon or else a deal would have already gone through. Their camp reportedly considered Nemec a "A/B tweener" and Holtz a B prospect, which says their bar for A vs B prospects is crazy high. So I bet they think Morrow would be a B and then they'd want another B thrown in, which could be that forward. I'm not saying Grier will get this ask. I am one of those that thinks neither Karlsson or Meier will get moved because Grier wants to keep them and only will move them for overpays


Yeah seems like he has extremely high standards with those valuations haha. Assuming he’s just trying to negotiate and position things in the media to increase his leverage. Could add a guy like Gunler to that offer. I think he’s a true Bish prospect but Grier would view him as a C prospect with those standards lol
 
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