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Theorizing

Created by: fangm
Team: 2022-23 Toronto Maple Leafs
Initial Creation Date: Feb. 17, 2023
Published: Feb. 17, 2023
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Description
If it's true that Kane only wants to go to Toronto or NYR and the Rangers are out after the Tarasenko move then Davidson is in a really tough position cause he can't get too little for Kane or the fanbase will freak but he also needs to make the trade happen cause if he doesn't it will look bad on him for disrespecting a franchise legend and scare away UFAs or other players from signing long-term with him as well as pissing off a fan ase that will get nothing back for Kane.

From Toronto's point of view Kane has 35 points in 50 games, that's a 55 point pace and you aren't giving up anything significant for a player that can't play defense and isnt producing. But again Dubas kinda needs to make an effort if Kane publicly says he wants to come to Toronto.

I see the Kessel trade as a great example of how this could work. Toronto needed a 1st back for optics but gave away a 2nd to make it happen which everyone forgets in a large trade. So here is what I see happening if Kane's only target is Toronto.
Trades
TOR
  1. Kane, Patrick ($5,250,000 retained)
  2. Raddysh, Taylor
  3. 2023 2nd round pick (CHI)
  4. 2023 7th round pick (CHI)
Additional Details:
Chicago gets the headline 1st back for Kane but gives up their 2nd and big depth winger the leafs could use on the 3rd/4th line.

Chicago also picks up a 3rd
CHI
  1. 2023 1st round pick (TOR)
  2. 2023 3rd round pick (OTT)
  3. 2024 4th round pick (TOR)
Additional Details:
4th goes to Anaheim or Arizona to retain another 50%, it's just 165k in salary despite the big cap hit.
DraftRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7
2023
Logo of the CHI
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the CHI
2024
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the OTT
2025
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
22$82,500,000$76,179,579$212,500$0$6,320,421
Left WingCentreRight Wing
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$950,000$950,000
LW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$11,640,250$11,640,250
C
UFA - 2
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$10,903,000$10,903,000
RW
UFA - 3
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$6,962,366$6,962,366
RW
UFA - 2
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$11,000,000$11,000,000
C, LW
NMC
UFA - 3
Logo of the Chicago Blackhawks
-$2,625,000-$2,625,000
RW
NMC
UFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$3,500,000$3,500,000
LW, C, RW
M-NTC
UFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$2,250,000$2,250,000
RW, LW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Chicago Blackhawks
$758,333$758,333
RW
RFA - 2
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$2,100,000$2,100,000
RW, C, LW
M-NTC
UFA - 4
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$1,500,000$1,500,000
C
UFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$840,630$840,630
LW, RW
UFA - 1
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$7,500,000$7,500,000
LD
NMC
UFA - 8
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$2,000,000$2,000,000
RD
M-NTC
UFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$4,687,500$4,687,500
G
M-NTC
UFA - 2
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$5,000,000$5,000,000
LD/RD
NTC
UFA - 2
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$1,400,000$1,400,000
RD
RFA - 2
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$1,800,000$1,800,000
G
UFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$1,400,000$1,400,000
LD
UFA - 2
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$850,000$850,000
RD
RFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$800,000$800,000
LD
UFA - 2
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$750,000$750,000
LD/RD
UFA - 1
ScratchesInjured Reserve (IR)Long Term IR (LTIR)
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$5,625,000$5,625,000
LD
NTC
UFA - 2
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$796,667$796,667
LW, RW
RFA - 2
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$750,000$750,000
LD/RD
UFA - 1

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Feb. 17, 2023 at 3:49 p.m.
#26
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Quoting: jsteed02
Might need to use that LMAO


haha. So, on peoples comments where it says their username there is that little arrow next to the name. Click that and a little thing will drop down that says "View Profile" and "Add to Ignore list".
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Feb. 17, 2023 at 4:07 p.m.
#27
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Quoting: Garak
"Do right by his star guys"? We are two weeks away from the deadline and Kane hasn't even made the decision to leave. It's a two way street and Kane wants to do right by the Hawks too. There isn't any bad blood, he isn't kicking and screaming for a trade. A deal has to make sense for all sides. They are all big boys that signed big boy contracts. This narrative that it would have some sort of negative effect on the perception of the team is just another attempt at lowering his trade value. One could argue that, if there isn't a trade, it's his fault for waiting so long to make a decision.

That all being said, CHI isn't sending picks out to anyone and you aren't sneaking Raddysh into that trade without more going to CHI. So, take out Raddysh, and the 2nd and 7th round picks out. If you do that it would be a lot closer, but I'd still be hesitant to trade Kane for so little. You would most likely have to add a prospect like Minten or Moldenhauer. Robertson is not of any interest, he might still turn out ok, but his failure to produce much of anything at the NHL level and constantly being injured are not things I would bet on, especially for a player his size.


I'm definitely operating on a very narrow assumption that Kane wants out and that Kane wants to go to Toronto. But even then I think anyone who feels Kane with fetch a 1st nevermind your suggestions of a 1st, 3rd and a prospect is completely off base. I know its Toronto media but the general take on most shows is that a Kane trade doesn't make sense for any teams cause the cost of getting a third team to retain is worth more than Kane given his injury concerns, production, defense, etc. I don't agree with that obviously I think something around a 2nd or two 3rds is fair value assuming you need to pay a 4th to a third team.

I feel the Hall to Boston trade is a good indication of his value. That was a star player being traded 3 years after winning the Hart on a down year who had a narrow list of targets and it was Hall and Lazar for Bjork (former 5th round pick, limited upside) and a 2nd.

I get where you are coming from and obviously we are all just fans with limited information and I've made this proposal under very limited circumstances. I was more interested in just the potential position Davidson could be in, not sure if they is again a Toronto perspective but I feel he's already viewed as a weak GM (Marazek trade was viewed as an L), Debrincat and Dach trades haven't worked out, also the decision to trade young good players instead of vets to kickstart the rebuild. Just seems he is in a tight spot that some team could squeeze and was wondering what Chicago fans like you feel he should do if he's left picking between a trade with limited value coming back and letting Kane walk this summer.
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Feb. 17, 2023 at 4:11 p.m.
#28
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Quoting: Juice
If Kane is really only giving you 1 team to deal with (which I doubt is actually the case) do you owe him any favours back?

What if staying in Chicago is what he wants? Do you owe it to him to let him stay or owe it to the fans/franchise to try and get something for him before he walks?

In two years if Matthews refuses to re-sign are you going to be content if the best we can do is land a 3rd round pick from the Kings because Auston refuses to waive his NMC to go anywhere else? Would we have been 'more ok' with Sundin leaving the leafs if we got a 3rd rounder for him instead of him walking for nothing?

I don't think it will take a substantial package to get Kane but there also has to be some legit value going to Chicago


Matthews doesn't have a NMC but if he did and the option was letting him walk for free or trading him for a 3rd and we were in the bottom 5 of the league then 100% you trade him for the 3rd. Doing anything else is just letting Dubas's ego/pride get in the way of doing what is best for the team which is helping them tank and collecting picks. If Davidson was smart he would have dealt with this in the summer instead of trying to force out Toews/Kane by moving away younger stars without trade protection. He put himself in a situation where they can call their shots his decisions have limited their trade value.

And yes, I would have preferred we traded Sundin for a 3rd instead of letting him walk for free. Not trading him which realistically given how good he was at the time would have netted us a 1st+ set our rebuild back by years.
Feb. 17, 2023 at 4:11 p.m.
#29
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Quoting: jsteed02
It would be sweet to get Kane for a low price like that, and I do figure it could happen given his NMC and some value is better than no value. I just hate the idea of putting Willy back on the left wing since he's been doing so well on the right this season. I would also think Kane would play with Matthews and Nylander (Matthews and Kane are buddies, and Nylander chose 88 for Kane)


Pretty sure Willie said he prefers playing the left but I could be wrong about that.
Feb. 17, 2023 at 4:14 p.m.
#30
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Quoting: JaredOfLondon
why does dubas need to make an effort to trade actual good pieces for a 34 year old with a bad hip who has always been awful defensivly has been playing like trash offensivly and is currently mailing it in. Hell Kane basically put up a "dont trade for me" performance against the team he apparently wants to go to.
There is zero incentive for the leafs to go after kane


Because if Toronto goes out in the first round and it comes out that Dubas could have got Kane for 1 or 2 mid round picks cause Kane wanted to come to Toronto and Dubas said no then he doesn't have a job next year. Especially if we lose in a game 7 where the big guys don't show up.

I think its bad enough that he said no to Perry on a league min and I can't explain how annoyed I get seeing AGMs where we trade a 1st or 2nd for Domi when the leafs turned him down this summer at a low cap hit. Dubas just can't keep affording to turn away players that the majority of the fan base would love and then fail/ have them succeed elsewhere.
Feb. 17, 2023 at 4:18 p.m.
#31
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Quoting: fangm
I'm definitely operating on a very narrow assumption that Kane wants out and that Kane wants to go to Toronto. But even then I think anyone who feels Kane with fetch a 1st nevermind your suggestions of a 1st, 3rd and a prospect is completely off base. I know its Toronto media but the general take on most shows is that a Kane trade doesn't make sense for any teams cause the cost of getting a third team to retain is worth more than Kane given his injury concerns, production, defense, etc. I don't agree with that obviously I think something around a 2nd or two 3rds is fair value assuming you need to pay a 4th to a third team.

I feel the Hall to Boston trade is a good indication of his value. That was a star player being traded 3 years after winning the Hart on a down year who had a narrow list of targets and it was Hall and Lazar for Bjork (former 5th round pick, limited upside) and a 2nd.

I get where you are coming from and obviously we are all just fans with limited information and I've made this proposal under very limited circumstances. I was more interested in just the potential position Davidson could be in, not sure if they is again a Toronto perspective but I feel he's already viewed as a weak GM (Marazek trade was viewed as an L), Debrincat and Dach trades haven't worked out, also the decision to trade young good players instead of vets to kickstart the rebuild. Just seems he is in a tight spot that some team could squeeze and was wondering what Chicago fans like you feel he should do if he's left picking between a trade with limited value coming back and letting Kane walk this summer.


The cost of retaining another 25% of Kanes contract is about $150k in actual salary and some cap space, because of his actual salary in this final year of his contract being only $2.9M. As long as the third party team has the cap space, the extra retention itself shouldn't cost that much. A 3rd tops.
Feb. 17, 2023 at 4:19 p.m.
#32
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Quoting: Lenny7
So, for the price of a 3rd, as well as getting the opportunity to jump about 6 spots in the draft, Chicago moves Kane & and Taylor Raddysh?

I'm not going to sit here and say that Kane is worth a massive haul, because he certainly isn't, but I really don't see the benefit here for the Hawks. Take out their 2nd and it might be closer.


I think you are dreaming if you think Kane can fetch a 1st. He's producing at a lower rate than Kerfoot did last year and everyone was happy to see him as a cap dump.
Feb. 17, 2023 at 4:22 p.m.
#33
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Quoting: fangm
Because if Toronto goes out in the first round and it comes out that Dubas could have got Kane for 1 or 2 mid round picks cause Kane wanted to come to Toronto and Dubas said no then he doesn't have a job next year. Especially if we lose in a game 7 where the big guys don't show up.

I think its bad enough that he said no to Perry on a league min and I can't explain how annoyed I get seeing AGMs where we trade a 1st or 2nd for Domi when the leafs turned him down this summer at a low cap hit. Dubas just can't keep affording to turn away players that the majority of the fan base would love and then fail/ have them succeed elsewhere.


or he could add good players
Feb. 17, 2023 at 5:17 p.m.
#34
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Quoting: JaredOfLondon
or he could add good players


Not saying you are wrong. I'm just saying, Imagein the headlines if at the end of April the leafs are out in the first round and its public knowledge the Leafs turned down a cheap trade for Kane at the deadline. There is no way in those circumstances the team could renew Dubas.
Feb. 17, 2023 at 5:20 p.m.
#35
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Quoting: fangm
Not saying you are wrong. I'm just saying, Imagein the headlines if at the end of April the leafs are out in the first round and its public knowledge the Leafs turned down a cheap trade for Kane at the deadline. There is no way in those circumstances the team could renew Dubas.


who cares? He's got a bad hip, is a massive drag on every team he's ever played on defensivly and he's not even very good at offence any more. Throw in that he's been mailing in his effort and he's a total garbage bag of a person I'd rather spend to get a good player that can help the team. Dubas shouldnt be interested in him even if hes free
Feb. 17, 2023 at 6:27 p.m.
#36
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Quoting: fangm
Matthews doesn't have a NMC but if he did and the option was letting him walk for free or trading him for a 3rd and we were in the bottom 5 of the league then 100% you trade him for the 3rd. Doing anything else is just letting Dubas's ego/pride get in the way of doing what is best for the team which is helping them tank and collecting picks. If Davidson was smart he would have dealt with this in the summer instead of trying to force out Toews/Kane by moving away younger stars without trade protection. He put himself in a situation where they can call their shots his decisions have limited their trade value.

And yes, I would have preferred we traded Sundin for a 3rd instead of letting him walk for free. Not trading him which realistically given how good he was at the time would have netted us a 1st+ set our rebuild back by years.


Difference of opinion, then. I certainly wouldn't value a 3rd round pick as enough to jeopardize my integrity as a GM into being strong armed. It's not an ego thing...it's that a 3rd rounder really isn't that valuable

And yes, Matthews has a NMC that kicks in next year, on his final year.
Feb. 28, 2023 at 3:40 p.m.
#37
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Quoting: Garak
CHI declines.


LOL
Feb. 28, 2023 at 3:41 p.m.
#38
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Quoting: Juice
Difference of opinion, then. I certainly wouldn't value a 3rd round pick as enough to jeopardize my integrity as a GM into being strong armed. It's not an ego thing...it's that a 3rd rounder really isn't that valuable

And yes, Matthews has a NMC that kicks in next year, on his final year.


LOL
Feb. 28, 2023 at 3:57 p.m.
#39
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Quoting: fangm
LOL


Do you actually think this offer is better than what we got? Because you wanted Raddysh and CHI's 2023 2nd round pick. Those things automatically makes this worse than what we did get. You either think you are pulling a fast one including Raddysh or you have no clue who he is. Also, adding another team or teams to the mix would have increased his trade value. Kane forced his way to NYR after the Rangers had already made all the moves they wanted to make, and he also said "TOR was never an option".
 
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