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2022 Adjusted NHLe (long description so ignore if you don't want to read)

2022 Adjusted NHLe (long description so ignore if you don't want to read)

Draft Class: 2022
Created By: capsleafs447
Published: Feb. 19, 2023 at 4:23 p.m.
Description
Hiii! So earlier in the year, I did a full look at the NHLe of skaters selected in the 2022 draft (or 2022 eligible prospects who were signed after being undrafted). This type of model only shows point totals, so the statistics do not paint a clear picture of the player's performance. However, they can indicate if a player may be struggling or thriving offensively in their respective leagues. The benefit of NHLe is that it can be converted from league to league, so that you can (somewhat, not super accurately, but somewhat) compare players between leagues at purely a level of point totals. For example, if a forward scored 40 points in 50 Czech League games, that results in a very good (for a teenager) NHLe equivalent to a 38 point pace in a full 82 game NHL season. However, in the WHL, 40pts in 50g is equivalent to a 9 point pace in an 82 game NHL season. Furthermore, a player in the NCAA who scores 50 points in 25 games might look like they're producing significantly more than the Czech League player mentioned above, but they actually produced less according to this model at an NHLe equivalent to 32p per 82g. Obviously, there are holes in this method, it paints an unclear picture as point totals are arbitrary and a player with a high point total could just have a very good linemate, or a player with a low point total could be playing for a team that generates no offensive chances. Additionally, defenders are cast to the wayside (not to mention goaltenders who are absent from the model entirely) by this method, as defenders typically produce at a lower rate than forwards. Because of this, I have multiplied their NHLe's by 1.35 to inflate them to the point where you can (again, somewhat, not accurately, but somewhat) compare defenders' offensive production to forwards. My previous model used a multiplier of 1.5 for defenders, and while that was clearly too high, 1.25 is too low. There are many much, much better ways of looking at a players' performance with advanced statistics, but this method allows for players approximately the same age in different leagues and positions to be compared against each other. One last flaw in this model (and what essentially ruined my last model) is that the NHLe's of overagers will often be very inflated, so all overagers will have their NHLe multiplied by 0.75. A player overage by more than one year still only receives the 0.75 multiplier once, because otherwise their totals would be decimated by a 0.56 multiplier. To put this into contrast, an overage forward has a multiplier to lower their NHLe, while non-overage defenders have a multiplier working to increase their NHLe. As an example, a point-per-game NCAA overage forward has an NHLe of about 12, while a point-per-game NCAA non-overage defender has an NHLe of about 21.5. This may seem drastic, but it is crucial in comparing players in this model, as without any adjustments, the model would be dominated by overage forwards. That's everything about this model. If you've stuck with me thus far, congratulations! (you are also probably the only one). Here's the model!!!
ROUND 1TEAMORIGINALPLAYERDETAILS
1Logo of the Montreal Canadiens-Defender, Montreal Canadiens, 26.24. Model's biggest steal. Hutson slipping to #62 on draft day was shocking, but now, it's a crime. His physicality and snarl make up for his smaller stature, and his offensive upside is shining brighter than any defensive prospect we've seen in years. He's also taken large strides this year to improve his defensive game. Hutson has the potential to be truly elite.
2Logo of the New Jersey Devils-Forward, Arizona Coyotes, 25.37. A strong first season has Cooley exceeding expectations in the NCAA, scoring at a rate 1.4 times higher than Matty Beniers' 2021-22 NCAA rate of 18.49. With Cooley's defensive play, work ethic, and unrivaled puckhandling, I think it's safe to say that at the moment, he's showing the most potential out of anyone in this draft class.
3Logo of the Arizona Coyotes-Forward, St. Louis Blues, 24.95. Model's third biggest steal. I was not high on Snuggerud, but this season, he's leaped beyond all expectations and has shown flashes of greatness. It's worth mentioning that, like Cooley, Snuggerud is producing in the NCAA at a higher rate than Matty Beniers. He's a power forward like we haven't seen in years.
4Logo of the Seattle Kraken-Defender, Columbus Blue Jackets, 24.21. Jiricek has been tearing up the AHL, and he's gotten into two NHL games. While the statistical model doesn't categorize him as a steal, I definitely think he is. In my first model, Jiricek topped the list by a ridiculous margin, and I wouldn't be shocked if he's playing on Columbus' blue line full time before the end of the season. Jiricek's explosive mobility is unrivaled by defenders, and his complete two way game gives him quite a high ceiling.
5Logo of the Philadelphia Flyers-Forward, Toronto Maple Leafs, 23.59. Model's second biggest steal, an out-of-nowhere phenom drafted at #135..... Why does that sound so familiar? ...oh. The #135 pick in 2015 was Kirill Kaprizov, which is either a funny coincidence (cough, cough, the hockey gods screwing with us) or Kaprizov stepped into a cloning chamber. Grebenkin and Kaprizov aren't super similar, though, as Grebenkin's physicality, playmaking, and passing are his true defining characteristics. He's a player of a breed we haven't seen before, so if his success continues to the NHL level, he has the potential to revolutionize the game. Okay, fine, that's gutsy to say about a fifth round pick, and yes, I am a Leafs fan. But still, you can't deny how good Grebenkin has been this season, and how unique and effective his play style is. Prepare for the entire league to be Greb-yonked.
6Logo of the Columbus Blue JacketsLogo of the Chicago BlackhawksForward, Detroit Red Wings, 22.67. A defensively sound forward, Kasper is looking like more and more of a steal every day. We should just stop questioning Steve Yzerman. That's all I have to say.
7Logo of the Chicago BlackhawksLogo of the Ottawa SenatorsForward, Seattle Kraken, 22.64. Wright has been thriving since returning to the OHL, playing the best hockey we've seen from him in a while. While Wright's NHLe has been screwed by a rocky start to the season with injuries and barely any playing time, his play in the OHL and WJC should make GMs question if he ever should have slipped past #1.
8Logo of the Detroit Red Wings-Forward, Buffalo Sabres, 22.42. Jiri Kulich has smashed all of my expectations. He's dominated in the AHL in his first season on North American ice, and he may even secure a promotion to the NHL by the end of the season. He's fast, he's aggressive, and his scoring abilities are elite.
9Logo of the Buffalo Sabres-Forward, San Jose Sharks, 22.40. I remember being baffled when the Sharks traded the #11 pick for the #27 pick and two first rounders. Now? Mike Grier is a genius. Bystedt's speed and defensive upside coupled with his passing make him the most complete player in the draft. It also helps that he's 6'4". If everything goes right his Bystedt could be a Selke winner many times over. His game is so reminiscent of Bergeron and Kopitar that I can practically smell it (and I physically can't smell).
10Logo of the Anaheim Ducks-Forward, Detroit Red Wings, 21.26. Another European steal by Yzerman. Seriously, nobody let the Red Wings scouts go to Europe, for all of our sakes. Buchelnikov is a true sniper with a demonically fast shot, but he's also quite crafty and a great passer. Buchelnikov has primarily played in the VHL this season, but he's also dabbled in the KHL and looked quite good. And while it's very early to make this bold of a comparison; he looks very, very much like a young Nikita Kucherov.
11Logo of the Arizona CoyotesLogo of the San Jose SharksForward, Montreal Canadiens, 21.03. The average for the first forward selected in each draft in the last 25 years is 47.18, 2.2 times more than Slafkovsky's, but over the past five years it's just 35.37, which is still 1.7 times more than Slafkovsky's. If his pace continues, he will have the third worst NHLe in the past 25 years, ahead of only Sam Reinhart (17.48) and Joe Thornton (9.41). This draft class (and the majority of draft classes in the past few years) has not had players thrive at an elite level like draft classes of the past. Crosby had 103.26, and McDavid had 87.47. There hasn't been a half a point per game NHLe since Nico Hischier in 2017-18, but over the span of 2001-02 to 2017-18, every #1 forward scored at more than half a point per game NHLe with the exceptions of Reinhart and Eric Staal (31.38). So while Slafkovsky's NHLe is disheartening, the trend for #1 forwards in recent years has been steadily declining so it is not entirely unexpected. Also, Joe Thornton has an abysmal rookie NHLe but is one of the greatest players of all time, while Nail Yakupov's rookie NHLe was an above-average 50.10. And, remember, this is Slafkovsky's first season adjusting to North American ice. So while he hasn't found success yet, it is far, far too early to judge him.
12Logo of the Columbus Blue Jackets-Forward, Philadelphia Flyers, 20.97. Gauthier is actually having a pretty decent season, definitely exceeding my expectations for him. His maturity is one reason he was selected so high, and his size, speed, shot, and skating are all elite and make for a lethal combination.
13Logo of the Chicago BlackhawksLogo of the New York IslandersDefender, Chicago Hawks, 20.44. Like Gauthier, Korchinski falling in the model is not worrying whatsoever. While he was a reach at #7, he has definitely proven that he was more than worth his pick. Korchinski's speed, offense, and powerplay are his best facets.
14Logo of the Winnipeg Jets-Defender, Montreal Canadiens, 20.01. Model's fourth biggest steal. Adam Engstrom has had a breakout season in the SHL highlighted by his fantastic two-way game. His mobility is great, and while positioning used to be a weakness of his, this season, it's been a strength.
15Logo of the Vancouver Canucks-Forward, Buffalo Sabres, 19.97. While Ostlund still hasn't cracked the SHL, his play in Allsvenskan has been good. His mobility and silky-smooth hands make me wonder if I'm watching Mat Barzal every time I see him.
16Logo of the Buffalo SabresLogo of the Vegas Golden KnightsDefender, Anaheim Ducks, 19.55. Mintyukov hasn't found the same success on the Ottawa 67's that he did in Saginaw earlier this year. Also, his defensive liabilities and positioning are concerning to say the least. However, his offensive upside is truly elite.
17Logo of the Nashville Predators-Forward, Columbus Blue Jackets, 19.32. Questions have been raised about whether Dumais' success will transfer to the professional level, particularly due to his size and skating, but to be honest, I'm not worried at all. Once he irons out the kinks in his game, of which there aren't many, Dumais could be an unstoppable force.
18Logo of the Dallas Stars-Defender, New Jersey Devils, 19.15. Don't let the model worry you. Nemec's defensive play has been exceptional, and quite frankly, I still think he's the best defender in this draft. New Jersey has a deep prospect pool and one of the best teams in the league, so they have plenty of time to develop him in the AHL.
19Logo of the Minnesota WildLogo of the Los Angeles Kings
Ty Nelson (+49 )
Defender, Seattle Kraken, 19.01. Like Hutson, Ty Nelson dropped tremendously in the draft due to his size. And, like Hutson, Nelson has been proving everyone wrong. While Nelson still has some work to do to improve his defense, he's certainly taken quite a few steps forward. Also, the snarl Nelson brings to his game makes up for his smaller stature. Does anyone remember that Brad Marchand is 5'9"? No. And soon, nobody will remember Nelson is either.
20Logo of the Washington Capitals-Defender, Dallas Stars, 18.31. Christian Kyrou has struggled after his trade to Sarnia to maintain the same success he found earlier this season. His defensive holes also should make scouts wonder if Kyrou has what it takes to succeed at the NHL level.
21Logo of the Pittsburgh Penguins-
Jani Nyman (+28 )
Forward, Seattle Kraken, 17.52. A promotion to Liiga after a stellar start has sent Nyman's stock flying upwards, but he sometimes struggles with consistency. Nyman's signed to a Liiga deal that goes through 2024 so it will be a while before we see him on North American ice.
22Logo of the Anaheim DucksLogo of the Boston BruinsDefender, Columbus Blue Jackets, 17.20. Mateychuk was snubbed from the World Juniors, but he's had a productive season taking several steps forward defensively. While Mateychuk has certainly has good all-around play, he sometimes makes head-scratching decisions regarding positioning.
23Logo of the St. Louis Blues-Forward, Seattle Kraken, 17.06. Goyette has dominated in the OHL, and his skating and passing are otherworldly. That said, with physicality not being a big part of his game, he may struggle to make the transition to the pro level.
24Logo of the Minnesota Wild-Forward, Winnipeg Jets, 16.49. Oh, wait, what? He's a defender??? Are you sure??? But he doesn't play defense?! Okay, I'll stop being mean. Salomonsson reminds me of John Carlson in that his offensive skills are way above average, but the gaping holes in his defense help bring him down to earth. He certainly fits Winnipeg's mould, though.
25Logo of the Chicago BlackhawksLogo of the Toronto Maple LeafsForward, Washington Capitals, 15.90. Take this with a grain of salt, as Suzdalev is currently playing on a line with some schmuck named, uh, what is it again? Boulevard? Oh, right. Connor freaking Bedard. While Suzdalev certainly is good in his own right, I'd wait to get excited until next year when his linemate isn't the second best Connor to ever lace up a pair of skates.
26Logo of the Montreal CanadiensLogo of the Calgary FlamesForward, Boston Bruins, 15.83. The first of many Matthews in a row, Poitras has had quite the success this year in Guelph. His passing and playmaking abilities are among the best in the draft, but his shot needs work.
27Logo of the San Jose SharksLogo of the Carolina HurricanesDefender, New Jersey Devils, 15.69. Casey is a defensive juggernaut, which we knew before this year, but the steps he's taken offensively this year are very promising. It's shocking that Casey fell out of the first round, as his stock now is going through the stratosphere. He is certainly the biggest victim in this model of zero consideration of defense.
28Logo of the Buffalo SabresLogo of the Florida PanthersForward, Buffalo Sabres, 15.67. Savoie was a surprising snub from the world juniors, especially when you remember that this time last year, he was being considered a top two prospect in the draft. While positioning and shooting are areas in his game that need improvement, I still think Savoie has the potential to be an elite player.
29Logo of the Arizona CoyotesLogo of the Edmonton OilersForward, New York Islanders, 15.28. Matthew Maggio is certainly an intriguing prospect. He's dominating the OHL, but he was also drafted as an overager, and his passing needs work. However, his scoring abilities have really started to shine in the last two years, and it's certainly possible that Maggio could be an effective player at the pro level.
30Logo of the Winnipeg JetsLogo of the New York RangersForward, Dallas Stars, 15.24. Model's fifth biggest steal and #2 riser. I'm gonna be honest, I really wanted the Caps to draft Seminoff last year. Not only was he born in Leesburg, a DC suburb, but he literally has 'Semin' in his name. And, he's a hard working two-way forward with very good playmaking skills. But alas, the Caps passed on him four different times, and the Stars nabbed him in the sixth round, way later than he was projected to go. And since then? He's been on fire. Not only is he a steal in the model, but his work ethic and defensive upside make him a ginormous steal in real life. I'm still pissed that GMBM didn't draft him, though.
31Logo of the Tampa Bay Lightning-Defender, St. Louis Blues, 15.23. Buchinger has taken a very big step forward this year in cementing the offensive aspects of his game. I'm quite confident that he'll be successful at the NHL level, as his skating and defense are already well developed.
32Logo of the Edmonton OilersLogo of the Colorado Avalanche
Otto Salin (+116 )
Defender, Los Angeles Kings, 15.00. Take this with a grain of salt. Salin has only played 27 games this season in Liiga, and while he's played well, the small sample size definitely contributes to how much he's risen. That said, Salin does look like he could have some promise, but he may flounder for a bit when he comes to North America as his defensive liabilities could hinder his development.
ROUND 2TEAMORIGINALPLAYERDETAILS
33Logo of the Montreal Canadiens-Defender, Arizona Coyotes, 14.91
34Logo of the San Jose SharksLogo of the Arizona CoyotesForward, Carolina Hurricanes, 14.88. Younger brother of Jets prospect Chaz Lucius.
35Logo of the Seattle Kraken-Forward, Winnipeg Jets, 14.87. McGroarty slips from the first round in this model, but I wouldn't be concerned. His two way game, defensive reliability, and leadership experience are why he was selected so high.
36Logo of the Arizona CoyotesLogo of the Philadelphia FlyersForward, Toronto Maple Leafs, 14.83. Moldenhauer slipped in his draft year due to missing quite a bit with injury, but this season, he's returned with a vengeance. His playmaking is among the best in the Leafs' system, but his skating could be a hinderance if it doesn't improve before he leaves the USHL.
37Logo of the Washington CapitalsLogo of the New Jersey DevilsForward, Minnesota Wild, 14.42. Ohgren hasn't found the same success in Djurgardens as his teammate, Noah Ostlund, but it's definitely far too early to be concerned. Ostlund's skating and shot are exceptional, but his speed and passing may prevent him from being a difference-maker.
38Logo of the Toronto Maple LeafsLogo of the Chicago BlackhawksDefender, Florida Panthers, 14.39
39Logo of the Chicago BlackhawksLogo of the Ottawa Senators
Parker Bell (+116 )
Forward, Calgary Flames, 14.38
40Logo of the Detroit Red Wings-Forward, Seattle Kraken, 14.28. Firkus has a laser beam of a shot, silky smooth hands and passing, a great two-way game, and a superb work ethic. By all accounts, he should've been a first rounder, but teams passed on him due to his size. This model has him way lower than the skill he's shown this season, especially due to his great all-around play.
41Logo of the Buffalo Sabres-Forward, Columbus Blue Jackets, 14.22
42Logo of the Anaheim Ducks-Forward, New York Islanders, 14.14
43Logo of the Arizona CoyotesLogo of the San Jose SharksForward, New York Rangers, 14.08
44Logo of the Columbus Blue Jackets-Forward, Chicago Hawks, 14.07. While his point total may not be high, the hype surrounding Greene is huge. His speed and playmaking abilities are elite, and while I don't love the term 'Hockey IQ', with Greene, there's no other way to describe it. The creativity he utilizes is astonishing.
45Logo of the San Jose SharksLogo of the New York IslandersDefender, Boston Bruins, 13.98
46Logo of the New Jersey DevilsLogo of the Winnipeg JetsForward, Chicago Hawks, 13.87. Due to missing all but four games of this season due to injury, I had to evaluate Nazar based on his play last season. That's the main reason he fell so much, not due to any fault of his own, but due to small sample sizes.
47Logo of the Minnesota WildLogo of the Vancouver CanucksDefender, Ottawa Senators, 13.71
48Logo of the Vegas Golden Knights-Forward, Montreal Canadiens, 13.70
49Logo of the Seattle KrakenLogo of the Nashville PredatorsDefender, New Jersey Devils, 13.69. When I initially made this model last fall, I remember Daniil Orlov cracking the top three. Honestly, I'm not sure how, as the stellar aspects of Orlov's game lie in his defense (I have a little bit of cognitive dissonance between 'Orlov' and 'defense' because of Dmitry Orlov). He's played at all levels of Russian hockey this season, and he's definitely a prospect to keep an eye on. It's too early to get excited, though.
50Logo of the Dallas Stars-
Jake Richard (+120 )
Forward, Buffalo Sabres, 13.68
51Logo of the Los Angeles Kings-Forward, Toronto Maple Leafs, 13.59. Fraser Minten was the Leafs' reward for dumping Petr Mrazek's contract when they unloaded Mrazek and the pick that became Sam Rinzel to trade down for Fraser Minten. That said, Minten already may be a better player than Rinzel. Minten's defensively sound game is his primary strength, so while he's fallen in this model, his stock has only risen in real life. Offensive production is a concern, but his Kampf-esque playing style makes him a promising future #3 center.
52Logo of the Detroit Red WingsLogo of the Washington CapitalsDefender, Anaheim Ducks, 13.53. Luneau was once heralded as a top fifteen prospect, particularly due to his stickhandling, but he fell out of the first round due to skating and other defensive liabilities. Those have improved this year, but neither his offensive nor defense is good enough to make Luneau a standout player. He still definitely has a very good chance of cracking the NHL, but the top 4D ceiling he once had may be unreachable.
53Logo of the Anaheim DucksLogo of the Pittsburgh PenguinsForward, New York Rangers, 13.38
54Logo of the Boston Bruins-Defender, Montreal Canadiens, 13.36. #1 riser. Tourigny skyrocketed up the charts in this model, but it's worth mentioning that he's a double overager. He's had some success this year playing in Slovakia, but his defensive game needs work if he wants to play in the NHL.
55Logo of the Winnipeg JetsLogo of the St. Louis BluesForward, Montreal Canadiens, 13.31. I really want Mesar and Slafkovsky to each have long careers with the Habs, just because their story is so heartwarming. Getting the opportunity to play alongside your childhood friend? It's the stuff of fairytales. While physicality is a weakness of Mesar's, his speed, stickhandling, and skating transform him into a dynamo. His two-way game isn't too shabby, either. Mesar's exceptional world junior performance and reliable play in the OHL this year have shown that he's taken great strides forward. I wouldn't be shocked if he played a handful of games for the Habs as soon as next season.
56Logo of the Minnesota Wild-Forward, Arizona Coyotes, 13.31. Miko Matikka has one of the most fun-to-say names of the draft. He's also a classic power forward standing at 6'3" with a great slapshot and stickhandling bolstered by a good physical game. While he's struggled after being traded to Waterloo, this season has definitely been a net positive for Matikka.
57Logo of the Chicago BlackhawksLogo of the Minnesota WildForward, Nashville Predators, 13.29. There's only one word I can say to convey my thoughts on Kemell's season: oof. After he fell ridiculously in the draft last year, Kemell's season has been nothing short of disastrous. His already-present defensive liabilities only became more apparent, and he took a big step back with his offense, all capped off by a disappointing World Juniors performance. While we musn't forget that Kemell was once considered a top five player in this draft, this season has to improve drastically or it might be time to question if he's worthy of his first round selection.
58Logo of the Seattle KrakenLogo of the Toronto Maple LeafsForward, Washington Capitals, 13.18. Miroshnichenko was once considered a generational talent. After being diagnosed with Hodgkin's Lymphoma and taking a step back from hockey, Miroshnichenko slipped all the way to #20 where the Capitals took a massive gamble. So far it's worked out perfectly, as Miroshnichenko has returned to hockey and debuted in the KHL this season. While his performance may be less than expected, it's important to remember that he's a rookie in the KHL that less than a year ago was fighting cancer. Miroshnichenko's ceiling is still as high as it's always been, but given everything he's been through, there's no guarantee he ever reaches that level.
59Logo of the Calgary Flames-Forward, Anaheim Ducks, 13.18
60Logo of the Carolina Hurricanes-Forward, Buffalo Sabres, 13.11
61Logo of the Seattle KrakenLogo of the Florida Panthers
Josh Filmon (+105 )
Forward, New Jersey Devils, 13.01
62Logo of the Montreal CanadiensLogo of the Edmonton Oilers
Owen Beck (-29 )
Forward, Montreal Canadiens, 12.98. Owen Beck should be much, much higher on this model. He's a defensively sound forward, and the success he reached when he was playing for Mississauga earlier this season was phenomenal. He hasn't reached the same success yet in Peterborough, but Beck is an all-around player that is certainly worth the hype surrounding his name.
63Logo of the New York Rangers-Forward, Montreal Canadiens, 12.73
64Logo of the Ottawa SenatorsLogo of the Tampa Bay LightningForward, Minnesota Wild, 12.70. It's weird thinking back and remembering when Yurov was considered a top ten prospect. While he doesn't have any glaring weaknesses, he doesn't have any extraordinary strengths, either, other than his skating.
65Logo of the New York IslandersLogo of the Colorado AvalancheDefender, Vancouver Canucks, 12.63. #4 riser. A 7th round pick in this past draft, Kudryavtsev has skyrocketed up the charts. He plays a two way game with smooth skating and a rocket shot from the point, he quarterbacks the powerplay quite well, and is a great penalty killer. The main reason Kudryavtsev isn't even higher on this model is that the Greyhounds stink this year which has dampened his point totals. Kudryavtsev should give Canucks fans something to look be excited about.
ROUND 3TEAMORIGINALPLAYERDETAILS
66Logo of the Chicago BlackhawksLogo of the Montreal CanadiensForward, Seattle Kraken, 12.53
67Logo of the Arizona Coyotes-Forward, Vegas Golden Knights, 12.53
68Logo of the Seattle Kraken-
Nolan Burke
Forward, Nashville Predators, 12.31. An undrafted free agent that has exploded in Sarnia this year. His goalscoring has been phenomenal, but only time will tell if it's sustainable.
69Logo of the Philadelphia Flyers-Forward, Arizona Coyotes, 12.30. Model's third biggest bust. Oh, Conor Geekie. How the mighty have fallen. The first major bust of the model, Geekie has struggled to take a step forward due to his issues with mobility and his skating that is, to be frank, quite bad. He's still obviously a very skilled player, and his goalscoring certainly has improved this year, but his skating may prevent him from ever reaching the level expected from him this time last year.
70Logo of the Washington CapitalsLogo of the New Jersey DevilsForward, Detroit Red Wings, 12.30
71Logo of the Carolina HurricanesLogo of the Chicago BlackhawksForward, Chicago Hawks, 12.25
72Logo of the Ottawa Senators-Forward, Montreal Canadiens, 12.25. Fun name. That's the main thing I wanted to say.
73Logo of the St. Louis BluesLogo of the Detroit Red WingsDefender, Edmonton Oilers, 12.21. Yevseyev's KHL debut has made him a player to keep an eye on. He's competent defensively, but his offense isn't quite good enough for him to muster any excitement yet.
74Logo of the Buffalo Sabres-Forward, Carolina Hurricanes, 12.20. When Trikozov fell out of the first round, everyone said "Russian Factor". However, this season has been nothing but disappointing. While he's a very smart hockey player, his offensive spark just hasn't been there this year, leading to disappointing performances in both the VHL and MHL.
75Logo of the Montreal CanadiensLogo of the Anaheim DucksDefender, Montreal Canadiens, 12.20. Nurmi honestly is too high in this model. He's a double overager in Liiga, and neither his defense or offense is developed enough for him to have a shot at cracking the Habs roster. He still has plenty of time, though.
76Logo of the San Jose Sharks-
Jack Devine (+145 )
Forward, Florida Panthers, 12.20. #3 riser. While Jack Devine has risen tremendously in the model compared to the draft, it's worth remembering that this was about the place where Devine was expected to go. If I recall correctly, my mock had him somewhere in the 80s. While his finishing needs work, Devine is very good away from the puck.
77Logo of the Winnipeg JetsLogo of the Columbus Blue JacketsForward, Ottawa Senators, 11.93
78Logo of the New York Islanders-Forward, Toronto Maple Leafs, 11.79. #5 riser. Lisowsky is a really interesting prospect. He was taken in the 7th round, mainly due to being average in many aspects. He's a good goalscorer, but this season, he's improved many aspects of his game, catching many people's attention. Lisowsky may not have a high ceiling, but his chances of making the NHL are very high for a seventh round pick.
79Logo of the Vegas Golden KnightsLogo of the Winnipeg JetsDefender, San Jose Sharks, 11.75. Havelid falls primarily due to the small sample size of games played this season due to injury. Not anything to be concerned about.
80Logo of the Vancouver Canucks-
Ben King (+27 )
Forward, Anaheim Ducks, 11.73
81Logo of the Chicago BlackhawksLogo of the Vegas Golden KnightsForward, Vegas Golden Knights, 11.60
82Logo of the Nashville Predators-Forward, Chicago Hawks, 11.39
83Logo of the Dallas Stars-
Kyle Jackson (+113 )
Forward, Seattle Kraken, 11.36
84Logo of the Nashville PredatorsLogo of the Los Angeles KingsForward, Winnipeg Jets, 11.27
85Logo of the Washington Capitals-Forward, Philadelphia Flyers, 11.20
86Logo of the Tampa Bay LightningLogo of the Pittsburgh PenguinsDefender, Minnesota Wild, 11.05
87Logo of the Ottawa SenatorsLogo of the Boston BruinsForward, Minnesota Wild, 11.01
88Logo of the St. Louis Blues-Defender, Pittsburgh Penguins, 11.00. Pickering, a cousin of Denton Mateychuk, skyrocketed up people's rankings late in the season due to a fantastic showing at the NHL draft combine. His skating is one of the best in his class, and he's a decent two way defender, but he doesn't have a high upside offensively. Defensively, though, he's taken great strides this season, and the only reason he fell is because of the model's flaws.
89Logo of the Minnesota Wild-
Sam Rinzel (-64 )
Defender, Chicago Hawks, 10.99. Sam Rinzel has not adapted well to the USHL. He was drafted out of high school, as the raw flashes of untapped potential he displayed were tantalizing enough for the Hawks to take on the contract of Petr Mrazek. Rinzel's skating, playmaking, and creativity are all fantastic, but his unrefined game and defensive mistakes have led to his struggles. Rinzel is a very boom-or-bust player, and unfortunately, this season has not gone his way so far. It's still too early to panic.
90Logo of the Chicago BlackhawksLogo of the Toronto Maple LeafsForward, Philadelphia Flyers, 10.79
91Logo of the Seattle KrakenLogo of the Calgary FlamesForward, Vegas Golden Knights, 10.65
92Logo of the Montreal CanadiensLogo of the Carolina Hurricanes
Noah Laba (+19 )
Forward, New York Rangers, 10.61
93Logo of the Florida Panthers-Forward, Washington Capitals, 10.60. Persson has continued to produce offensively, but his defensive game has only decayed this season. As a Caps fan, I'm a little worried.
94Logo of the Arizona CoyotesLogo of the Edmonton OilersForward, Chicago Hawks, 10.53. The other Savoie.
95Logo of the Toronto Maple LeafsLogo of the New York RangersForward, San Jose Sharks, 10.42. Taken with a very early second, Lund came from a bit of an untraditional market in the Green Bay Gamblers of the USHL. In his first season in the NCAA, he hasn't shown the same finishing abilities he's displayed in the past. Regardless, Lund's size and shot allow him to be a formidable player in front of the net, and his speed makes him a decent two-way forward.
96Logo of the Columbus Blue JacketsLogo of the Tampa Bay LightningDefender, Dallas Stars, 10.42
97Logo of the New York RangersLogo of the Colorado AvalancheForward, Anaheim Ducks, 10.40. Gaucher has never been a flashy or particularly skilled player, but his physicality and net-front presence secured him a first round selection. His ceiling has never been high, but his size and snarl make him a safe bet to eventually make the NHL.
ROUND 4TEAMORIGINALPLAYERDETAILS
98Logo of the New York IslandersLogo of the Montreal CanadiensForward, Minnesota Wild, 10.30. Haight had a miserable start to the year in Barrie, but after a move to Saginaw, he's playing the best hockey we've seen from him yet. He's quite skilled and mobile, but consistency has been an issue.
99Logo of the Winnipeg JetsLogo of the Arizona CoyotesForward, Vancouver Canucks, 10.20
100Logo of the Seattle Kraken-
Dyllan Gill (+123 )
Defender, Tampa Bay Lightning, 10.19
101Logo of the Carolina HurricanesLogo of the Philadelphia FlyersDefender, Arizona Coyotes, 10.06
102Logo of the New Jersey Devils-Forward, Vancouver Canucks, 10.03. Model's biggest bust. In July, I thought the Canucks hit the jackpot when they nabbed Lekkerimaki, but in a very Canucksesque fashion, he's promptly sucked this season with no warning. Where is the Jonathan Lekkerimaki of last season, when he was producing at a higher rate in the SHL than he's producing this season in Allsvenskan? His goalscoring has disappeared, his skating has looked worse, and he's struggled on a team where young players like Noah Ostlund and Liam Ohgren have done well. I can only hope that Lekk can find his game before he loses his shot at the NHL.
103Logo of the Los Angeles KingsLogo of the Chicago BlackhawksForward, Winnipeg Jets, 9.99. Remember when Brad Lambert, Matt Savoie, Shane Wright, and Ivan Miroshnichenko were considered the best top four we'd seen in years? It's crazy that they slid so much that none of them were even top three. While Miroshnichenko dealt with injuries and Savoie slipped for his size, Lambert's fall was all of his own making. His inconsistent play and minimal work ethic have led to his offensive skills withering away. Sure, he played well in the preseason and the WHL, but his abysmal AHL and World Juniors performances were hard to watch. Lambert looked uninspired and apathetic. He plays well when he needs to make a good impression, but when it matters, he's nowhere to be found. As I said the day he was drafted, I don't think Aatu Raty is a good comparison for Lambert; this pick reeks of Kristian Vesalainen. No, I don't hate the Jets. Winnipeg fans, I'm sorryyy, please don't obliterate me.
104Logo of the Ottawa Senators-Defender, Seattle Kraken, 9.91
105Logo of the Detroit Red Wings-Forward, Detroit Red Wings, 9.82. Quite a fun name.
106Logo of the Buffalo Sabres-Forward, New York Islanders, 9.78. Another fun name.
107Logo of the Anaheim Ducks-Forward, Edmonton Oilers, 9.74. Schaefer's scoring touch has dissipated, and without it, his snarl is not enough to make him an impact player. Also, his puckhandling weaknesses have become more apparent.
108Logo of the San Jose Sharks-Forward, Los Angeles Kings, 9.68
109Logo of the Columbus Blue Jackets-Forward, Boston Bruins, 9.68.
110Logo of the New Jersey DevilsLogo of the New York IslandersForward, Columbus Blue Jackets, 9.51
111Logo of the New York RangersLogo of the Winnipeg Jets
Alex Bump (+22 )
Forward, Philadelphia Flyers, 9.31
112Logo of the Vancouver Canucks-Defender, Vegas Golden Knights, 9.28
113Logo of the Detroit Red WingsLogo of the Vegas Golden KnightsForward, New Jersey Devils, 9.27
114Logo of the Nashville Predators-
Ryan Hofer (+67 )
Forward, Washington Capitals, 9.21. A big overager who uses his body to create chances, and a pretty good shot, too. Mobility is an issue, though. I got to see Hofer play in person, and he looked much better than I expected. He's not a skilled player, and mobility issues could prevent him from reaching the NHL, but he could be a valuable fourth-liner. If everything goes right, we might even have another Garnet Hathaway on our hands.
115Logo of the Dallas Stars-Forward, Vegas Golden Knights, 9.16
116Logo of the Los Angeles Kings-Forward, Chicago Hawks, 9.12
117Logo of the Boston BruinsLogo of the Washington CapitalsDefender, Dallas Stars, 9.10. Model's second biggest bust. Oh, Lian. I was never high on you, but I certainly wasn't expecting this. He's a physical defender with very little offensive upside, but this season, he doesn't even look great defensively. In today's game, physicality with no skill only goes so far.
118Logo of the Pittsburgh Penguins-Forward, Arizona Coyotes, 9.05. His play at the World Juniors was concerning.
119Logo of the Boston Bruins-Forward, New York Rangers, 8.90
120Logo of the St. Louis Blues-Defender, Nashville Predators, 8.87
121Logo of the Minnesota Wild-Forward, Detroit Red Wings, 8.87
122Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs-Defender, San Jose Sharks, 8.76
123Logo of the Seattle KrakenLogo of the Calgary FlamesDefender, Nashville Predators, 8.74
124Logo of the Carolina Hurricanes-Defender, Dallas Stars, 8.52
125Logo of the Florida Panthers-Forward, Chicago Hawks, 8.52
126Logo of the New Jersey DevilsLogo of the Edmonton OilersDefender, Arizona Coyotes, 8.34. If you were expecting Maveric Lamoureux any higher, you haven't been paying attention. Lamoureux is a 6'7" terrifying eater of souls who really doesn't contribute offensively, but he's very, very mobile and defensively sound. I'm so thankful he's in the west. If your favorite team plays in the Central Division, and you're not already having nightmares of Maveric Lamoureux, don't worry. You will be soon.
127Logo of the Montreal CanadiensLogo of the New York RangersForward, Florida Panthers, 8.34. Fun name!
128Logo of the Vegas Golden KnightsLogo of the Tampa Bay LightningForward, Seattle Kraken, 8.14
129Logo of the Detroit Red WingsLogo of the Colorado AvalancheDefender, St. Louis Blues, 8.12
ROUND 5TEAMORIGINALPLAYERDETAILS
130Logo of the Montreal Canadiens-Forward, Calgary Flames, 7.97
131Logo of the Arizona Coyotes-Defender, St. Louis Blues, 7.96
132Logo of the Boston BruinsLogo of the Seattle KrakenForward, Nashville Predators, 7.95
133Logo of the Philadelphia Flyers-Defender, Buffalo Sabres, 7.82
134Logo of the Buffalo SabresLogo of the New Jersey Devils
Zam Plante (+16 )
Forward, Pittsburgh Penguins, 7.82
135Logo of the Toronto Maple LeafsLogo of the Chicago BlackhawksForward, Calgary Flames, 7.81
136Logo of the Ottawa Senators-Forward, Nashville Predators, 7.80
137Logo of the Detroit Red Wings-Defender, Carolina Hurricanes, 7.70. While Grudinin is fast and skilled, his size and decision making made him slip far, far down in the draft this past summer. This season has done nothing to ease those concerns, as they've been even more apparent.
138Logo of the Columbus Blue JacketsLogo of the Buffalo SabresDefender, New York Islanders, 7.44. Odelius wasn't drafted for his offense, and his defense is still quite good so slipping in the model is nothing to be concerned about.
139Logo of the Anaheim Ducks-Forward, Washington Capitals, 7.43. My favorite name of the draft. Nooo, it's not just because he's a Cap. Okay, fine, it is. I can't help but hear the tune of "ba rum pum pum pum" every time I read his name.
140Logo of the San Jose Sharks-Forward, Los Angeles Kings, 7.34. Often called "The Other Jack Hughes", Jack D Hughes was a very hyped prospect. But, after two straight overwhelming seasons in the NCAA, the hype surrounding him has all but dissipated.
141Logo of the New Jersey DevilsLogo of the Columbus Blue JacketsDefender, Boston Bruins, 7.33
142Logo of the New York Islanders-Forward, Los Angeles Kings, 7.21
143Logo of the Ottawa SenatorsLogo of the Winnipeg JetsForward, Florida Panthers, 7.20
144Logo of the Vancouver Canucks-Forward, Ottawa Senators, 7.16
145Logo of the Vegas Golden Knights-Defender, Arizona Coyotes, 7.13
146Logo of the Nashville Predators-Forward, Tampa Bay Lightning, 7.09. I jumped on the Lucas Edmonds band-wagon last year, and whoo, was I wrong. Edmonds' playmaking and puck control haven't transferred over to the pro level, and at this stage in his development, it's quite possible that they won't ever transfer over.
147Logo of the Dallas Stars-Forward, Florida Panthers, 7.04
148Logo of the Los Angeles Kings-Defender, New York Islanders, 7.00. He's a defensive defender, so nothing to be concerned about.
149Logo of the Washington Capitals-Defender, Pittsburgh Penguins, 6.93
150Logo of the Pittsburgh Penguins-Forward, Ottawa Senators, 6.90
151Logo of the Ottawa SenatorsLogo of the Boston Bruins
Dylan James (-111 )
Forward, Detroit Red Wings, 6.73
152Logo of the St. Louis Blues-Defender, Carolina Hurricanes, 6.67. I never understood the Alex Pelevin hype, to be honest. He was ranked quite high before the draft, but his skating and mobility issues made me wonder why anyone would call him a 'shutdown defender'. This year, his skating has improved ever so slightly, and I doubt Pelevin will ever hit North American ice.
153Logo of the Minnesota Wild-Forward, Carolina Hurricanes, 6.62. Alex Perevalov's scoring ability that we got used to seeing last year is nowhere to be found. He's still playing okay defensively, but his stock is dropping, fast.
154Logo of the Anaheim DucksLogo of the Toronto Maple LeafsDefender, Minnesota Wild, 6.61
155Logo of the Calgary Flames-Forward, Anaheim Ducks, 6.58
156Logo of the Carolina Hurricanes-Forward, San Jose Sharks, 6.58
157Logo of the Florida Panthers-Defender, Philadelphia Flyers, 6.44
158Logo of the Edmonton Oilers-Defender, Winnipeg Jets, 6.43
159Logo of the New York Rangers-Defender, Arizona Coyotes, 6.42
160Logo of the Tampa Bay Lightning-Defender, Vancouver Canucks, 6.41. The other Elias Pettersson has failed to find success thus far.
161Logo of the New York RangersLogo of the Colorado AvalancheDefender, Florida Panthers, 6.39
ROUND 6TEAMORIGINALPLAYERDETAILS
162Logo of the Montreal Canadiens-Forward, Chicago Hawks, 6.31
163Logo of the Arizona Coyotes-Defender, Buffalo Sabres, 6.18
164Logo of the Seattle Kraken-
Isaac Howard (-133 )
Forward, Tampa Bay Lightning, 6.12. Model's fourth biggest bust and #3 faller. Skating and speed have left Howard dead in the water. While it's possible he could improve with coaching, and he still packs the same snarl, Howard hasn't been able to make an impact in the NCAA at all. Now is the time to be concerned.
165Logo of the Philadelphia Flyers-Defender, Ottawa Senators, 6.02. Aggressive and physical, but his lack of offense and mediocre defense are concerning.
166Logo of the New Jersey Devils-Defender, Carolina Hurricanes, 5.63
167Logo of the Pittsburgh PenguinsLogo of the Chicago BlackhawksForward, Philadelphia Flyers, 5.56
168Logo of the Ottawa Senators-Forward, Seattle Kraken, 5.55
169Logo of the Los Angeles KingsLogo of the Detroit Red WingsDefender, San Jose Sharks, 5.54
170Logo of the Buffalo Sabres-
Tyson Dyck (+36 )
Forward, Ottawa Senators, 5.51
171Logo of the Carolina HurricanesLogo of the Anaheim DucksForward, Winnipeg Jets, 5.42
172Logo of the San Jose Sharks-Forward, Buffalo Sabres, 5.39
173Logo of the Chicago BlackhawksLogo of the Columbus Blue JacketsForward, San Jose Sharks, 5.39
174Logo of the New York Islanders-Forward, Nashville Predators, 5.37
175Logo of the Winnipeg Jets-
Adam Zlnka (+29 )
Forward, Arizona Coyotes, 5.30
176Logo of the Vancouver Canucks-Defender, Detroit Red Wings, 5.22
177Logo of the Vegas Golden Knights-Forward, Edmonton Oilers, 5.17
178Logo of the Anaheim DucksLogo of the Nashville Predators
Kai Schwindt
Forward, Florida Panthers, 5.09. Brother of Cole Schwindt, who was recently traded from Florida to Calgary in the Tkachuk-Huberdeau deal.
179Logo of the Dallas Stars-Forward, Minnesota Wild, 5.07
180Logo of the Los Angeles Kings-Defender, Ottawa Senators, 5.04. Hamara has not adapted well to North American ice. His offense is gone, his defense is meh, and he looks unmotivated.
181Logo of the Washington Capitals-Forward, New York Rangers, 4.91
182Logo of the Pittsburgh Penguins-
Ryan Chesley (-145 )
Defender, Washington Capitals, 4.87. Model's fifth biggest bust and #1 faller. Holy crap. I was not expecting to be writing this. Ryan Chesley was, on draft day, considered the best defensive defender in the draft. So when the Caps nabbed him in the second round (with VV's pick, too), I was ecstatic. However, this season has gone downhill. Chesley doesn't look the same defensively, while he's still good, he doesn't seem to have the same ability to lock down a play and defend the rush. His decision making has also been questionable, and his shooting has been abysmal. I sincerely hope that Chesley can turn things around, as the potential he once showed was great, but I'm not hopeful.
183Logo of the Boston Bruins-Forward, Tampa Bay Lightning, 4.86
184Logo of the St. Louis Blues-
Noah Warren (-142 )
Defender, Anaheim Ducks, 4.81. #2 faller. Warren was selected for his physicality, so falling in the model is expected. However, it surely was not expected for him to fall this much. His offense has declined, and his defense hasn't improved, either. Warren's lack of skill may prevent him from reaching the NHL, despite his size.
185Logo of the Minnesota Wild-Forward, Detroit Red Wings, 4.76
186Logo of the Florida PanthersLogo of the Toronto Maple LeafsDefender, Ottawa Senators, 4.75
187Logo of the Buffalo SabresLogo of the Calgary FlamesForward, Minnesota Wild, 4.55. #4 faller. Last year, Lorenz played in the AJHL but produced as such a high rate that he was considered as valuable as players in the CHL. However, in the NCAA, it's evident that he has gaping holes in his game, especially regarding his shot, stickhandling, and passing.
188Logo of the Chicago BlackhawksLogo of the Carolina HurricanesForward, Buffalo Sabres, 4.54
189Logo of the Florida Panthers-Defender, Washington Capitals, 4.53
190Logo of the Edmonton Oilers-Forward, Chicago Hawks, 4.50
191Logo of the New York Rangers-Forward, Los Angeles Kings, 4.47. The other Wright.
192Logo of the Tampa Bay Lightning-
Nathan Staios
Defender, Florida Panthers, 4.36
193Logo of the Colorado Avalanche-Forward, Buffalo Sabres, 4.31
ROUND 7TEAMORIGINALPLAYERDETAILS
194Logo of the Montreal Canadiens-Defender, Vancouver Canucks, 4.30
195Logo of the San Jose SharksLogo of the Arizona Coyotes
Landon Sim (-11 )
Forward, St. Louis Blues, 4.23
196Logo of the Seattle Kraken-Forward, Tampa Bay Lightning, 4.11
197Logo of the Philadelphia Flyers-Defender, Colorado Avalanche, 3.96
198Logo of the New Jersey Devils-Forward, Pittsburgh Penguins, 3.94
199Logo of the Chicago Blackhawks-Defender, New York Rangers, 3.87
200Logo of the Boston BruinsLogo of the Ottawa SenatorsDefender, New Jersey Devils, 3.83
201Logo of the Detroit Red Wings-Forward, Columbus Blue Jackets, 3.45
202Logo of the Buffalo Sabres-Defender, Los Angeles Kings, 3.19
203Logo of the Columbus Blue JacketsLogo of the Anaheim DucksForward, St. Louis Blues, 3.13. #5 faller. Kaskimaki's defensive flaws and decision making have only gotten worse this year. Also, his underdeveloped skating has been an issue since his promotion to Liiga.
204Logo of the Arizona CoyotesLogo of the San Jose SharksDefender, Los Angeles Kings, 3.08
205Logo of the Carolina HurricanesLogo of the Columbus Blue JacketsForward, Boston Bruins, 3.06
206Logo of the Ottawa SenatorsLogo of the New York Islanders
Joe Fleming
Defender, Vegas Golden Knights, 2.79
207Logo of the Winnipeg Jets-Defender, Detroit Red Wings, 2.45
208Logo of the Vancouver Canucks-Defender, New Jersey Devils, 1.68. Zero offensive upside. Defensively competent, but not enough to compete in today's NHL.
209Logo of the Vegas Golden Knights-Defender, Eli Barnett, 1.40. Barnett's height was the only reason he was drafted. No offense, no defense, and not even much snarl in his game. Barnett is about as spicy as a glass of milk.
210Logo of the Nashville Predators-
211Logo of the Buffalo SabresLogo of the Dallas Stars
212Logo of the Detroit Red WingsLogo of the Los Angeles Kings
213Logo of the Washington Capitals-
214Logo of the Florida PanthersLogo of the Pittsburgh Penguins
215Logo of the Los Angeles KingsLogo of the Boston Bruins
216Logo of the Montreal CanadiensLogo of the St. Louis Blues
217Logo of the San Jose SharksLogo of the Minnesota Wild
218Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs-
219Logo of the Calgary Flames-
220Logo of the Philadelphia FlyersLogo of the Carolina Hurricanes
221Logo of the Florida Panthers-
222Logo of the Edmonton Oilers-
223Logo of the Tampa Bay LightningLogo of the New York Rangers
224Logo of the Tampa Bay Lightning-
225Logo of the Colorado Avalanche-
Feb. 19, 2023 at 6:15 p.m.
#1
Reinbacher Josi 2.0
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Habs drafted the first overall guy anyway, big W.
Feb. 20, 2023 at 6:41 a.m.
#2
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Edited Feb. 20, 2023 at 7:17 a.m.
That has been extremely deep investigation. I would never expect something like this from a Leafs fan wink The model is useful, but in my opinion beside forward/D-man separation it also lacks component for player's size. The model is useful, but not ultimately perfect (not that there can be ultimate model, teams would sell their families for that).

I'll put a short comment for some (possibly) unexpected names on your list:

Hutson... the offense is undisputible, but will he be able to match the 6ft4 opponents in the NHL? I don't see a huge surprise him being taken that late. When it comes to risk management, he is ultimate boom-or-bust. In general teams also can't have more than 1 small D-man in the lineup and be succesful. Colorado's 2022 roster might be exception to that and they on average still weren't really small (average in the playoffs 6ft1 and 220lbs or so, with the next men in the lineup being Curtis MacDermid). All the other past 10 or so champions were all made of brick wall on the back end, with an average of roughly 6ft3 and 225lbs. Teams might be wise to spend their middle and lower-rounds picks on tough, low-scoring 6ft3, 200 lbs defenders (especially rare big RHDs).
Some Hutson-like overage calibers for 2023 Draft: Sam Court, Maxim Fedotov, Bogdan Konyushkov. All are overagers and therefore somewhat "tested".

Grebenkin... your model might be very useful when searching for overage forwards. Like it or not, for a forwards is their production the most important criteria. If a overage forward is 6ft2 and he scores in KHL/VHL/SHL/NCAA, he has bottom-6 pottential for NHL. The teams might be smart with their high and middle-rounds picks NOT to Draft KHLers/MHLers in their 1st year of eligibility, but do draft them a year later with their 4th-6th round picks. In my opinion that's better risk-management.
Some of the interesting names of similar caliber for 2023 Draft: German Tochilkin, Vadim Moroz, Ruslan Gimbatov... However, there are some exceptions. For example, Tigran Yarulin has decent KHL numbers, but it is painful to watch him in the MHL. He plays on the bottom-6 on a average team, looks disinterested and sucks big time. Therefore, if a player plays 3 leagues and he is good in only 1 of them, it might be an exception to the model. If a player is good in 2 of the 3 leagues, he is legit. Similar might be said for SHL/Allsvenskan/SWE U-20 players.

Bystedt... yes, if over 6ft3 and heavy player is 1PPG in CHL/USHL/SWE U-20, he is worth late 1st/early 2nd round pick. Size matters and this players might also be candidates for center-spot job in the NHL. If that kind of player can serve in the NHL as full-time 3C, occasional 2C Adam Lowry-type, that's a win.
Similar, less known calibers for 2023 Draft: Anton Wahlberg, Danny Nelson, David Edstrom, Jaden Lipinski, Dylan Roobroeck, Sutter Muzzatti, Gleb Veremyev...

Buchelnikov... model predicts he is future potential top-liner in the NHL. But I wouldn't spend more than 5th round pick on him. Here is a game from the 2022 MHL playoffs: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x-1l54WE5KQ . At 1:16:40 is his season-ending injury (btw, it might be part of a reason why Blues have selected lesser-known Nikita Yevseyev) and then at 2:03:12 he was off the surface with ice bag on his leg. And that was it for his season, quarter-finale or so of the MHL, despite it really wasn't that bad and he was able to walk and doing basically everything off the ice. I definitely wouldn't risk high or middle-rounds pick for that kind of player, especially in their 1st year of Draft eligibility. But tested overagers, I might risk 5th or 6th round pick on that caliber. Candidate for 2023 Draft: KHL-tested Alexander Suvorov.

Engstrom... I have never really understood all the hype around Calle Odelius, while the playoff-production and regular season +/- have indicated that Adam Engstrom was the best D-man on Djurgardens U-20 team. And Engstrom is taller than Odelius. Odelius' regular season numbers were clearly positively impacted by the incredibly strong Djurgardens line (Ohgren, Ostlund, Lekkerimaki). In the playoffs Engstrom was able to raise his performance to the same level as forwards, while Odelius' numbers have droped significantly. Now Engstrom is on the new team and he migh have another „Odelius“ on his team: Tom Willander. Scouts are high on Willander, but he is not dominant neither in the U-20, SHL or in the internationals. So, if 6ft1 or smaller D-man is not the best D-man on his junior team, I generally wouldn't risk any Draft pick on him. For example, Willander is on my DND list.
Example of overlooked Engstrom-type D-man: Justin Kipkie. I don't think he is on anyone's radar. He plays on a bad Victoria team and is on par with Kalem Parker for being 1st-2nd D-man on the team. But Kipkie is much younger, taller and his relative +/- is much better (Parker's absolute +/- is 2nd worst in the WHL). It's just that Kipkie is LHD, while Parker is RHD. That's the only reason I can find why Parker is on NHL's list and Kipkie is not. For comparison, Kipkie should be worth at least 5th round pick and Parker shouldn't.

Nyman... that's an easy one. Nyman came from the same Mestis club as Roby Jarventie. They both were very young on their respective Draft day, they share similar size and their absolute production was basically identical. However, Nyman was a bit bigger and his relative production in the Draft season was even better (Jarventie was 5th scorer on his team, Nyman was 1st). Therefore it was an easy decision to me, Nyman was worth late 1st/early 2nd round pick.
It's harder to find comparable pair to Jarventie-Nyman. Maybe Devin Kaplan-Danny Nelson. Same team, a year appart, similar size, comparable relative and absolute production. But Nelson projects to be even bigger and is younger on his respective team. Therefore Nelson is worth 2nd round pick to me (potential big NHL centers are expensive).

Maggio... his case study is complicated. In his 1st year of Draft eligibility (2020/21) he was teammate with Logan Mailloux on HockeyEttan team. Their production was not far appart (Mailloux' was better), but we really can't compare 6ft3 RD and 5ft10 RW. If not for infamous incident, every team would have Mailloux in their lineup far in front of Maggio. Year or two in the advance, Mailloux is roughly 1PPG player in the OHL and Maggio is much more than that. But who will be able to play in the NHL better? 100% are cards on Mailloux. Sucessfull junior 5ft10 RWs are common, but they rarely make it to the NHL. Maggio is in his D+2 year and he is OHL's leading scorer. In his D+1 year he was good, but for the most part just supporting player for Wyatt Johnston and way below 1PPG player in the playoffs. No wonder he was just 5th round pick. Similar might be said for Matthew Savoie and Conor Geekie, who in the 2022 playoffs were badly outperformed by their teammates (including a year younger Zach Benson). The difference is just the NHL GMs were blindfolded and wanted to believe Savoie and Geekie are the driving force on the team. So I would say Maggio is team's (and league's) leading scorer, but the numbers are showing us better player then reality is.
Islanders are buyers at the TDL. When keep emptying their already small prospect pool they might sell Maggio high. I wouldn't bank on him being NHL star one day, but on the other hand at the moment NYI might sell him as 2nd round pick equivalent.
Similar high-caliber comparison is Gabriel Perreault (as last season Isaac Howard) – team's leading scorer, but the numbers might be lying to us. You might say Dragicevic is another one, but that's also obvious. Less obvious are Koehn Zimmer and Reidly Heidt (beside Chase Wheatcroft and Hudson Thornton) and maybe some Swedes. Otto Steinberg and Theo Lindstein are excellent in the internationals, but on their respective teams (U-20 and SHL) are they for the most part just average players.
Same can be said for Eduard Sale, he is very good against junior opponents and in the internationals, but struggles against adult opponents. His production in CZE-1 is just comparable to Kulich's one and worse than Jiricek's. Similar numbers were scored by Mysak in 2020. On U-20 internationals is Sale not dominant player and that's a red flag for him being extremely high Draft pick. I wouldn't touch him in the top 15, but somebody other probably will.
It,'s early to say, but direct comparison in the lower rounds to Matt Maggio is possibly Nick Lardis. In better club he is scoring like a machine. But a team spending for say 2nd or early 3rd round pick on him, they might regret that later.
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Feb. 20, 2023 at 10:18 a.m.
#3
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This is great - I love this.

Sorry ahead of time for the long post, but I would raise a couple items about how you are treating NCAA players (and AHL).

First, looking at this quote:
Quoting: capsleafs447
Furthermore, a player in the NCAA who scores 50 points in 25 games might look like they're producing significantly more than the Czech League player mentioned above, but they actually produced less according to this model at an NHLe equivalent to 32p per 82g.


Generally, I have seen NCAA get an NHLe multiplier of around 0.2 to 0.4 depending on what source you use. Some have broken it further by conference as we all know, some are more defensive, others more offensive. So take the mid-point of that, which is 3.0. A player with 50 pts in 25 games would be 2 ppg season. Over 82 NCAA games, if they played that many, that would mean 164 points. Multiply 164 by 0.3 and you'd get NHLe of 49.2. You would have to take the lowest figure (0.2), to result in NHLe of 32.8.

Since you are getting such a high number for Czech league, I am guessing you are using Patrick Bacon's data? I will simply suggest you look at league adjustment figures from various sources, plug 'em into the model, and see how they change.

Or if you really want simple, use Christian Roatis's NHLe Calculator. Just plugged first three in....

Hutson: 42
Cooley: 39
Snuggerud: 37


Second, there are no such things as "overagers" in NCAA. If you want to adjust by age, that would be a useful and justifiable input in your model. But it needs to work both ways. If D+1 players still playing juniors are dinged, than D+1 players who are playing pro hockey or NCAA should see their numbers *go up* with age adjustments.

But you would league means first. Some examples:

WHL: 18.1
USHL: 18.3
NCAA: 22.0
AHL: 25.2

If you are going to penalize a 19-year old playing in WHL (x0.75) because they are a year older than the average, then a similar number should be applied to players playing in older leagues. a 20-year Freshman in NCAA is still two years below league average. An 18-year-old in AHL is 7 years younger.

Average ppg by class

FR: 0.35
SO: 0.38
JR: 0.40
SR: 0.42

A little match can get you adjustments by class...

FR: x1.114
SO: x1.032
JR: x0.964
SR: x0.929

So adjusting the previous three players would get

Hutson: 47
Cooley: 43
Snuggerud: 41


Love what you have put in here. @ me if you make updates.
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Feb. 20, 2023 at 10:55 a.m.
#4
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love the time you put into it and the adjustment made! this model will never be perfect, but its always nice to look at! i still think Chl players are a bit at a disvantage. for exemple, Dumais's number are historic, the guy doing something we havent seen since the 1980s, at a d+1 year, still rank not that high. i know the big question with dumais is size and style of play, but if a bigger foward was doing what he is doing he woukd get crosby level hype!
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