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Game Theory

Created by: NHLfan10506
Team: 2022-23 San Jose Sharks
Initial Creation Date: Feb. 20, 2023
Published: Feb. 20, 2023
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Description
This is the stuff that fascinates me...and why I first signed up for ACGM.

This is a post about Game Theory and the risk calculations GMs make at the deadline. So imagine you are San Jose GM Mike Grier and play a little game....

(if you are here to assess trade values..and say your team rejects or poster is all over the place, thanks for not reading this).

------

Here is what we know...
-- Likely a handful of teams in on Meier (CAR, NJD, others)
-- Some want him as rental, some for long-term
-- Meier's contract is up this summer. Has one more RFA window.
-- Grier has so far declined requests to speak with Meier's agent about extension.
-- At least one team won't bid unless they speak with agent first.

Here is what we assume...(at least for this post)
-- San Jose will trade Meier at deadline
-- Grier will want to maximize returns

------

Here's the fun party for ACGM'ers.

It is unclear why Grier has to denied teams' permission to speak with Meier's agent. They have stated that they want to get closer to an agreed-upon trade before making that allowance. Some have speculated that he won't permit any discussions and try to sell Meier as rental instead. If the player or his agent are saying they want to go to UFA or they will only sign for one team, then allowing contact with other clubs may be a bad choice since it could result in fewer or lower bids.

Imagine there are four scenarios your AGM has mapped out for you...(with return prices for San Jose from low-to-high):

1. Meier negotiates with teams and picks only one (example: Mark Stone)
2. No negotiations, Meier sold as rental (example: standard UFA return)
3. Meier negotiates with teams and chooses faster path to UFA (example: Sam Reinhart)
4. Meier negotiates with teams and agrees to sign long-term in multiple places (example: Kevin Fiala)

------

If you are GM and you get to the point where you know you will trade Meier, which path do you take? Path A (allow teams to speak with Meier's agent, with one of Scenarios #1, #3 or #4) or Path B (deny teams permission and sell Meier as rental).

Path A -- Go for #4 and risk #1 or #3 occurring.
Path B -- Settle for #2 and hope for bidding war.

------

(I am a Devils fan)
Trades
1.
SJS
  1. Cormier, Lukas
  2. 2024 2nd round pick (VGK)
VGK
    Scenario #1 -- Meier negotiates with teams and says he will only extend for one team. The market dries up and San Jose is left with Mark Stone-esque return.
    2.
    SJS
    1. Appleton, Mason
    2. Heinola, Ville
    3. 2023 1st round pick (WPG)
    WPG
      Scenario #2 -- San Jose declines anyone from speaking with Meier and generates a typical rental bidding war from teams looking for short-term boost. Returns are mostly along lines of pick, prospect, player.
      3.
      SJS
      1. Morrow, Scott [Reserve List]
      2. 2023 1st round pick (CAR)
      CAR
        Scenario #3 -- San Jose allows teams to speak with Meier, who decides he wants fastest route to UFA and agrees to 1-2 extension. Long-term suitors are thereby removed from the market.
        4.
        SJS
        1. Holtz, Alexander
        2. Nemec, Simon
        3. 2023 1st round pick (NJD)
        NJD
          Scenario #4 -- San Jose allows teams to talk to Meier's agent. Meier agrees to extend with multiple teams. San Jose gets windfall return.
          5.
          SJS
          NJD
            If you only skipped to the trades, go back and read above.
            6.
            SJS
            NJD
              Which is it?

              Path A
              Path B
              Buyouts
              Retained Salary Transactions
              DraftRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7
              2023
              Logo of the SJS
              Logo of the WPG
              Logo of the CAR
              Logo of the NJD
              Logo of the SJS
              Logo of the CAR
              Logo of the SJS
              Logo of the SEA
              Logo of the SJS
              Logo of the CBJ
              Logo of the SJS
              Logo of the SJS
              Logo of the VAN
              2024
              Logo of the SJS
              Logo of the SJS
              Logo of the VGK
              Logo of the SJS
              Logo of the VGK
              Logo of the SJS
              Logo of the COL
              Logo of the SJS
              Logo of the SJS
              2025
              Logo of the SJS
              Logo of the SJS
              Logo of the SJS
              Logo of the SJS
              Logo of the SJS
              Logo of the SJS
              Logo of the SJS
              ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
              23$82,500,000$75,355,834$0$675,000$7,144,166
              Left WingCentreRight Wing
              Logo of the San Jose Sharks
              $2,500,000$2,500,000
              LW
              UFA - 2
              Logo of the San Jose Sharks
              $6,750,000$6,750,000
              C
              NMC
              UFA - 8
              Logo of the San Jose Sharks
              $4,725,000$4,725,000
              RW, LW
              UFA - 2
              Logo of the San Jose Sharks
              $950,000$950,000
              LW, RW
              RFA - 1
              Logo of the San Jose Sharks
              $8,000,000$8,000,000
              C
              M-NTC
              UFA - 5
              Logo of the San Jose Sharks
              $2,500,000$2,500,000
              RW, LW
              M-NTC
              UFA - 2
              Logo of the San Jose Sharks
              $750,000$750,000
              LW, RW
              UFA - 1
              Logo of the San Jose Sharks
              $1,025,000$1,025,000
              C, LW
              M-NTC
              UFA - 1
              Logo of the San Jose Sharks
              $863,333$863,333 (Performance Bonus$425,000$425K)
              RW
              RFA - 1
              Logo of the San Jose Sharks
              $1,050,000$1,050,000
              C, LW, RW
              UFA - 2
              Logo of the San Jose Sharks
              $2,000,000$2,000,000
              C
              UFA - 3
              Logo of the San Jose Sharks
              $750,000$750,000
              RW, C
              UFA - 1
              Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
              Logo of the San Jose Sharks
              $7,000,000$7,000,000
              LD/RD
              NMC
              UFA - 4
              Logo of the San Jose Sharks
              $10,000,000$10,000,000
              RD
              NMC
              UFA - 5
              Logo of the San Jose Sharks
              $2,750,000$2,750,000
              G
              UFA - 2
              Logo of the San Jose Sharks
              $3,250,000$3,250,000
              LD
              UFA - 4
              Logo of the San Jose Sharks
              $1,250,000$1,250,000
              RD
              UFA - 4
              Logo of the San Jose Sharks
              $2,250,000$2,250,000
              G
              M-NTC
              UFA - 1
              Logo of the San Jose Sharks
              $835,000$835,000
              LD
              RFA - 2
              Logo of the San Jose Sharks
              $762,500$762,500
              LD/RD
              UFA - 2
              ScratchesInjured Reserve (IR)Long Term IR (LTIR)
              Logo of the San Jose Sharks
              $750,000$750,000
              LD
              UFA - 1
              Logo of the San Jose Sharks
              $1,500,000$1,500,000 (Performance Bonus$250,000$250K)
              LD/RD
              UFA - 1
              Logo of the Vegas Golden Knights
              $793,333$793,333
              LD
              RFA - 3
              Logo of the San Jose Sharks
              $2,750,000$2,750,000
              RW, C
              RFA - 2
              Logo of the San Jose Sharks
              $3,000,000$3,000,000
              LW, RW
              UFA - 1
              Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
              $2,166,667$2,166,667
              RW
              UFA - 3
              Logo of the San Jose Sharks
              $2,250,000$2,250,000
              LD/RD
              UFA - 2
              Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
              $863,333$863,333 (Performance Bonus$212,500$212K)
              LD
              RFA - 2
              Logo of the New Jersey Devils
              $894,167$894,167 (Performance Bonus$850,000$850K)
              RW, LW
              RFA - 3
              Logo of the New Jersey Devils
              $950,000$950,000
              RD
              RFA - 4

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              Feb. 20, 2023 at 6:23 p.m.
              #1
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              My team rejects.






























              Path B. There's always the off-season, before the draft, to select Path A.
              NHLfan10506 and poeticentropy liked this.
              Feb. 20, 2023 at 6:23 p.m.
              #2
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              I dunno but I do know that NJ say no and look elsewhere for trade improvement at that cost
              RV23 liked this.
              Feb. 20, 2023 at 6:29 p.m.
              #3
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              Quoting: GMBL
              Path B. There's always the off-season, before the draft, to select Path A.


              If Path A were to be chosen, would probably be better to do so closer to the deadline when the urgency picks up significantly.
              Feb. 20, 2023 at 6:33 p.m.
              #4
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              Interesting idea but man 1, 2 and 3 suck for San Jose.

              As far as I’m aware, Grier stated he would let teams negotiate an extension with Meier’s camp. Friedman had stated this as well. It wouldn’t make sense to miss out on assets on such a high commodity like Meier.

              My belief is that Grier wants an offer he deems to be close to what they are looking for prior to any contract negotiations. Grier is getting a bunch of crap from devs fans saying he needs to move him already. Well clearly they don’t have to move him, whether they should or not is up for debate. To me it seems clear that if Jersey steps up with a legitimate offer that an extension could easily be done.

              Time is running out though
              Feb. 20, 2023 at 6:34 p.m.
              #5
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              This is also greatly predicated on the idea that Meier has a choice in where he goes…which he doesn’t.
              Feb. 20, 2023 at 6:55 p.m.
              #6
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              Quoting: glarson17
              This is also greatly predicated on the idea that Meier has a choice in where he goes…which he doesn’t.


              Well some teams like NJ are only interested if they can get an extension in place. Others like CAR might still be interested in him still but won't be giving up a boatload for him (rental type offer) if he's not open to extending. He's a QO away from FA and 10m is no joke, so no team will want to loss assets on him and/or get stuck with a QO that they may not be able to afford. So, he does have some leverage in that regard.
              Feb. 20, 2023 at 7:05 p.m.
              #7
              Stovetop
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              There are no scenario's in which The Sharks get a 1st, Holtz AND Nemec.

              I can see a swap out of Nemec for Mukhamadulin, but Nemec is pretty much untouchable along with Hughes.
              Feb. 20, 2023 at 8:08 p.m.
              #8
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              Quoting: GMBL
              Path B. There's always the off-season, before the draft, to select Path A.

              If Path A were to be chosen, would probably be better to do so closer to the deadline when the urgency picks up significantly.


              Yeah, I thought of that...but then gets too complicated. Dealing him at draft gets real dicey as there is a narrow window between when they have to elect arbitration and make a deal if they want a 2023 pick.

              I think there will be many more bids with Path B...some I presume they would like.
              GMBL liked this.
              Feb. 20, 2023 at 8:16 p.m.
              #9
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              Quoting: glarson17
              This is also greatly predicated on the idea that Meier has a choice in where he goes…which he doesn’t.


              He has no choice in where he is dealt at deadline. But if he chose to, he could drop a hammer on San Jose's trade return.

              Once they took away conditional picks on signing, a lot of power moved into the hands of pending RFAs to hold leverage with the current teams.
              Grier has to work with the teams Meier agrees to if he wants maximum return.
              It is, in effect, a de facto no-trade clause if Grier wants a big return.
              Feb. 20, 2023 at 8:18 p.m.
              #10
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              Quoting: glarson17
              Interesting idea but man 1, 2 and 3 suck for San Jose.

              As far as I’m aware, Grier stated he would let teams negotiate an extension with Meier’s camp. Friedman had stated this as well. It wouldn’t make sense to miss out on assets on such a high commodity like Meier.

              My belief is that Grier wants an offer he deems to be close to what they are looking for prior to any contract negotiations. Grier is getting a bunch of crap from devs fans saying he needs to move him already. Well clearly they don’t have to move him, whether they should or not is up for debate. To me it seems clear that if Jersey steps up with a legitimate offer that an extension could easily be done.

              Time is running out though


              Others, Lebrun I think, said he may get traded without permission ever granted.
              And its also been reported that NJD doesn't make an offer without talking to agent first.
              Feb. 20, 2023 at 8:21 p.m.
              #11
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              Quoting: AStovetop
              There are no scenario's in which The Sharks get a 1st, Holtz AND Nemec.

              I can see a swap out of Nemec for Mukhamadulin, but Nemec is pretty much untouchable along with Hughes.


              Me neither...but I needed one team to be one giving the "windfall option" and figured it was best to be my own.

              (personally, I don't think Holtz would be included either)
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              Feb. 20, 2023 at 8:22 p.m.
              #12
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              Quoting: GMBL
              Well some teams like NJ are only interested if they can get an extension in place. Others like CAR might still be interested in him still but won't be giving up a boatload for him (rental type offer) if he's not open to extending. He's a QO away from FA and 10m is no joke, so no team will want to loss assets on him and/or get stuck with a QO that they may not be able to afford. So, he does have some leverage in that regard.


              A lot leverage...if he chooses to use it.

              Fiala picked three teams, I believe.
              GMBL liked this.
              Feb. 20, 2023 at 8:56 p.m.
              #13
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              Quoting: NHLfan10506
              A lot leverage...if he chooses to use it.

              Fiala picked three teams, I believe.


              I just said some because for the rest of the season, he's still under contract and if the next team can afford his QO, could be a 1.5 year rental in a place that he doesn't prefer still.
              Feb. 20, 2023 at 10:50 p.m.
              #14
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              Quoting: GMBL
              I just said some because for the rest of the season, he's still under contract and if the next team can afford his QO, could be a 1.5 year rental in a place that he doesn't prefer still.


              If Meier said, privately or publicly, I only want to sign for XYZ team. Some teams will exit the market.
              San Jose is forced to take him to Arbitration, sell him as rental or to deal directly to XYZ. Other teams know this.
              Feb. 20, 2023 at 11:23 p.m.
              #15
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              Quoting: NHLfan10506
              If Meier said, privately or publicly, I only want to sign for XYZ team. Some teams will exit the market.
              San Jose is forced to take him to Arbitration, sell him as rental or to deal directly to XYZ. Other teams know this.


              It would definitely drive down the possible return, which will bring other buyers who can take him as a rental 1.5 into the mix as well. They would need to be able accommodate ~8m cap hit since that's what he will get in arbitration probably. So, he does have a fair bit of leverage now but he will gain more leverage in the off-season since it would only be teams who are looking to add him for the long-term at that time. Obviously, Grier would like to maximize the return so he would try to trade him to one of those teams or team who Meier is willing to extend with. If it's a single team, they still would need to pay more than the teams who are looking to rent him for a year or a year and a half.
               
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