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49Toronto Maple Leafs 2022 2023 Season Discussion (Part 4)

Mar. 24, 2023 at 3:55 p.m.
#1201
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I’ve always said I’d take our top six against any team:
Bunting Matthews Nylander
Tavares O’Reilly Marner

Over the past three seasons, this is how Tavares and Nylander have fared together:
GF 103 GA 110 CF 55.2% xG 55.13%
They’ve generally controlled play as a line while not taking on the toughest matchups and they have been outscored over a three-year period.
This season Tavares and Nylander when together are getting outscored 16-15; 42-19 for Nylander when he is away from Tavares and 31-21 when Tavares is away from Nylander.
Now with Jarnkrok tho (like he does whenever Keefe plays him in the top six) has complemented those two very well. That is still an option to go with but IMO you are wasting O'Reilly not in the top 6. If they had gone out and got another forward that would be different but saddling him with any combination of Kerfoot or Lafferty is a waste. That is what was happening to him in STL and why is point totals were so low (and getting injured).
For me, the optimal pairings have always been Matthews with Nylander and Tavares with Marner. Keep the ‘Ontario line’ together when O’Reilly is back. That line was really looking dangerous and Tavares has always looked his best when paired with Marner.

Have the Tavares line can go up against Hagel Point Kucherov, IMO they could break even, and I like our chances of the Matthews line going up against Killorn Cirelli Stamkos.

It’s the bottom six that got destroyed last year and really hurt us. Which means some combination of Lafferty Kampf Jarnkrok (which has played zero mins together) or Kerfoot Kampf Lafferty (most likely) going up against Colton Paul Jeannot (FML). That group could recreate a decent checking line like Engvall Kampf Mikheyev was (Kerfoot replaces Engvall and Lafferty replaces Mikheyev) Kampf NEEDS to have skaters who can carry out the puck with control and win some puck battles, something Kerfoot and Lafferty excel at. If the plan is to bring in Kines, having a 4th line of Knies Acciari Jarnkrok go up against Maroon Bellemare/Eyssimont Perry could do some real damage. I would still want to find a way of getting more mins for Jarnkrok but giving Calle some more offensive players to play with could make that a sneaky good line. Keefe will uses at least 8-10 different combinations in game so finding Jarnkrok more ice wouldn't be an issue. We just need the bottom six to break even this year.

Where TBL is not the same as before is on D. They will have Cole, Perbix, Bogosisn out in some pairing and that needs to be exposed. They will have a really weak third pairing, something Keefe will need to attack with his line changes.

I would like to see them try something like this:

Bunting Matthews Nylander
Tavares O'Reilly Marner
Kerfoot Kampf Lafferty
Knies Acciari Jarnkrok

McCabe Broide
Gio Holl
Rielly Liljegren

My two cents, maybe I'm dead wrong
Mar. 24, 2023 at 5:46 p.m.
#1202
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Quoting: aadoyle
I feel Bunting being with Matthews is just better. Jarnkrok has been good with him but he was also good with JT and Marner. I want to see him with ROR as if they can mesh we can build 3 scoring lines

As the speed of Jarnkrok and Lafferty with the finish of ROR could be deadly and makes more sense for a 2-way third line


only thing is having Jarn - AM - MM, you have three very legitimate 2 way forwards on a line. Bunting is solid, but the defensive side isn't quite his forte like Jarnkrok. If you pair those three together and it's clicking offensively, the real value comes where you have just a nightmare matchup line. They can go up against other top lines and not only score but keep the puck out of the net against opposing first lines. That is extremely valuable.
Mar. 24, 2023 at 5:47 p.m.
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Quoting: MatthewsFan
I’ve always said I’d take our top six against any team:
Bunting Matthews Nylander
Tavares O’Reilly Marner

Over the past three seasons, this is how Tavares and Nylander have fared together:
GF 103 GA 110 CF 55.2% xG 55.13%
They’ve generally controlled play as a line while not taking on the toughest matchups and they have been outscored over a three-year period.
This season Tavares and Nylander when together are getting outscored 16-15; 42-19 for Nylander when he is away from Tavares and 31-21 when Tavares is away from Nylander.
Now with Jarnkrok tho (like he does whenever Keefe plays him in the top six) has complemented those two very well. That is still an option to go with but IMO you are wasting O'Reilly not in the top 6. If they had gone out and got another forward that would be different but saddling him with any combination of Kerfoot or Lafferty is a waste. That is what was happening to him in STL and why is point totals were so low (and getting injured).
For me, the optimal pairings have always been Matthews with Nylander and Tavares with Marner. Keep the ‘Ontario line’ together when O’Reilly is back. That line was really looking dangerous and Tavares has always looked his best when paired with Marner.

Have the Tavares line can go up against Hagel Point Kucherov, IMO they could break even, and I like our chances of the Matthews line going up against Killorn Cirelli Stamkos.

It’s the bottom six that got destroyed last year and really hurt us. Which means some combination of Lafferty Kampf Jarnkrok (which has played zero mins together) or Kerfoot Kampf Lafferty (most likely) going up against Colton Paul Jeannot (FML). That group could recreate a decent checking line like Engvall Kampf Mikheyev was (Kerfoot replaces Engvall and Lafferty replaces Mikheyev) Kampf NEEDS to have skaters who can carry out the puck with control and win some puck battles, something Kerfoot and Lafferty excel at. If the plan is to bring in Kines, having a 4th line of Knies Acciari Jarnkrok go up against Maroon Bellemare/Eyssimont Perry could do some real damage. I would still want to find a way of getting more mins for Jarnkrok but giving Calle some more offensive players to play with could make that a sneaky good line. Keefe will uses at least 8-10 different combinations in game so finding Jarnkrok more ice wouldn't be an issue. We just need the bottom six to break even this year.

Where TBL is not the same as before is on D. They will have Cole, Perbix, Bogosisn out in some pairing and that needs to be exposed. They will have a really weak third pairing, something Keefe will need to attack with his line changes.

I would like to see them try something like this:

Bunting Matthews Nylander
Tavares O'Reilly Marner
Kerfoot Kampf Lafferty
Knies Acciari Jarnkrok

McCabe Broide
Gio Holl
Rielly Liljegren

My two cents, maybe I'm dead wrong


"destroyed" is harsh for any facet of that series when they Leafs were at worst 50/50 in that series. We've completely revamped our 4th line which was just a mix and match of sh*t and random vets. It has improved.

That being said I'd like to see a balanced 3 line deep approach

Calle is also playing so well with Matthews right now I don't see Keefe breaking that until it looks like a problem. Matthews himself even has been dumping so much praise on jarnkrok, seems to be working.
Mar. 24, 2023 at 5:50 p.m.
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this isn't what I see happening, or necessarily want to see come game 1, but would be kinda sick to see the AZ boys on a line

Knies - Matthews - Jarnkrok
Bunting- Tavares - Marner
Lafferty - ROR - Nylander
ZAR - Kampf - Acciari
Mar. 24, 2023 at 5:57 p.m.
#1205
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Quoting: leafs101
"destroyed" is harsh for any facet of that series when they Leafs were at worst 50/50 in that series. We've completely revamped our 4th line which was just a mix and match of sh*t and random vets. It has improved.

That being said I'd like to see a balanced 3 line deep approach

Calle is also playing so well with Matthews right now I don't see Keefe breaking that until it looks like a problem. Matthews himself even has been dumping so much praise on jarnkrok, seems to be working.


Last year the Leafs’ bottom six – which included some combination of Engvall, Kampf, Kase, Blackwell, Spezza, Clifford, and Simmonds – combined for three goals, with Mikheyev scoring two empty netters. TBL bottom six of Colton, Paul, Hagel, Perry, Bellemare, and Maroon combined for 10 goals (no empty netters). Call it however you want, the gap in depth scoring was significant.

It was a major deciding factor especially considering how well the top 6 out performed theirs.
Fr3ig39XoAApkhH?format=jpg&name=900x900

Again, like I said, just have the bottom 6 break even this year
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Mar. 24, 2023 at 6:20 p.m.
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Quoting: MatthewsFan
Last year the Leafs’ bottom six – which included some combination of Engvall, Kampf, Kase, Blackwell, Spezza, Clifford, and Simmonds – combined for three goals, with Mikheyev scoring two empty netters. TBL bottom six of Colton, Paul, Hagel, Perry, Bellemare, and Maroon combined for 10 goals (no empty netters). Call it however you want, the gap in depth scoring was significant.

It was a major deciding factor especially considering how well the top 6 out performed theirs.
Fr3ig39XoAApkhH?format=jpg&name=900x900

Again, like I said, just have the bottom 6 break even this year


fair. Do think our bottom 6 is much improved this year though.
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Mar. 24, 2023 at 6:37 p.m.
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Fr50lQbX0AAEhWu?format=jpg&name=medium
Mar. 24, 2023 at 6:46 p.m.
#1208
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Quoting: leafs101
fair. Do think our bottom 6 is much improved this year though.


I believe it’s a harder group to play against but the scoring is still an issue. This is the same Acciari who was with FLA last year that got swept by TBL:
Acciari - 0 goals 0 points in his last 19 playoff games
Lafferty - zero playoff experience (1 game does not count for me)
Kampf - has struggled really bad this year, 3 goals in his last 43 games. I also don’t believe in the, well he did it last year.
Kerfoot - 1 goal in his last 26 games, struggling to even produce with core guys this year.
ZAR - 4 goals in his last 46 games (two coming in the same game only a week ago)
Jarnkrok ? - has looked incredible when placed in the top six, when in the bottom 6 and playing with this group above, invisible.
Knies - no idea
O’Reilly - for the same reasons I don’t want Jarnkrok in the bottom 6 are the same reasons I don’t want ROR there. To get the most out of him, play him with skill players, otherwise you are wasting him.


Long winded way of saying, they will be harder to play against, meaning harder to score against. But I don’t believe in their chances to score.
Mar. 24, 2023 at 7:01 p.m.
#1209
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Edited Mar. 24, 2023 at 7:22 p.m.
Quoting: MatthewsFan
I’ve always said I’d take our top six against any team:
Bunting Matthews Nylander
Tavares O’Reilly Marner

Over the past three seasons, this is how Tavares and Nylander have fared together:
GF 103 GA 110 CF 55.2% xG 55.13%
They’ve generally controlled play as a line while not taking on the toughest matchups and they have been outscored over a three-year period.
This season Tavares and Nylander when together are getting outscored 16-15; 42-19 for Nylander when he is away from Tavares and 31-21 when Tavares is away from Nylander.
Now with Jarnkrok tho (like he does whenever Keefe plays him in the top six) has complemented those two very well. That is still an option to go with but IMO you are wasting O'Reilly not in the top 6. If they had gone out and got another forward that would be different but saddling him with any combination of Kerfoot or Lafferty is a waste. That is what was happening to him in STL and why is point totals were so low (and getting injured).
For me, the optimal pairings have always been Matthews with Nylander and Tavares with Marner. Keep the ‘Ontario line’ together when O’Reilly is back. That line was really looking dangerous and Tavares has always looked his best when paired with Marner.

Have the Tavares line can go up against Hagel Point Kucherov, IMO they could break even, and I like our chances of the Matthews line going up against Killorn Cirelli Stamkos.

It’s the bottom six that got destroyed last year and really hurt us. Which means some combination of Lafferty Kampf Jarnkrok (which has played zero mins together) or Kerfoot Kampf Lafferty (most likely) going up against Colton Paul Jeannot (FML). That group could recreate a decent checking line like Engvall Kampf Mikheyev was (Kerfoot replaces Engvall and Lafferty replaces Mikheyev) Kampf NEEDS to have skaters who can carry out the puck with control and win some puck battles, something Kerfoot and Lafferty excel at. If the plan is to bring in Kines, having a 4th line of Knies Acciari Jarnkrok go up against Maroon Bellemare/Eyssimont Perry could do some real damage. I would still want to find a way of getting more mins for Jarnkrok but giving Calle some more offensive players to play with could make that a sneaky good line. Keefe will uses at least 8-10 different combinations in game so finding Jarnkrok more ice wouldn't be an issue. We just need the bottom six to break even this year.

Where TBL is not the same as before is on D. They will have Cole, Perbix, Bogosisn out in some pairing and that needs to be exposed. They will have a really weak third pairing, something Keefe will need to attack with his line changes.

I would like to see them try something like this:

Bunting Matthews Nylander
Tavares O'Reilly Marner
Kerfoot Kampf Lafferty
Knies Acciari Jarnkrok

McCabe Broide
Gio Holl
Rielly Liljegren

My two cents, maybe I'm dead wrong


My one issue with the lines is if Tampa shuts down the top 6. I know impossible but we have seen it happen (game 7 vs. Tampa Rielly scored no goal from AM, MM, JT, WN)

I feel having ROR on the 3rd line with Jarnkrok and either Acciari or Lafferty works. As Tampa then has 3 lines to deal with vs. 2. Heck when Knies comes maybe he earns his way up.

Sure u can use JT-ROR-Marner but do it in a scenario where u need to tie a game or want to add some insurance to a lead (Like what we see Keefe do with faceoffs in opponents zone)

The real question will be Knies. As I believe he plays Saturday. If an elimination occurs, we could see him vs. NSH and like Bunting we could see a quick rise or fall. Rooting for him all the way as man imagine he adapts quick and develops chemistry with JT or Matthews. Will be some fun times for us
Mar. 24, 2023 at 7:23 p.m.
#1210
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Quoting: aadoyle
My one issue with the lines is if Tampa shuts down the top 6. I know impossible but we have seen it happen (game 7 vs. Tampa Rielly scored no goal from AM, MM, JT, WN)

I feel having ROR on the 3rd line with Jarnkrok and either Acciari or Lafferty works. As Tampa then has 3 lines to deal with vs. 2. Heck when Knies comes maybe he

The real question will be Knies. As I believe he plays Saturday. If an elimination occurs, we could see him vs. NSH and like Bunting we could see a quick rise or fall. Rooting for him all the way as man imagine he adapts quick and develops chemistry with JT or Matthews. Will be some fun times for us


If TBL plays an entire series like Game 7 where they looked like the 90’s Devils where they got the lead and clogged up the neutral zone, keeping everything to the outside, then yes, spread out the scoring.

But that’s not happening every game.

ROR has played almost exclusively with Tavares, Marner, or Nylander.

He has taken a few shifts with Kerfoot and Lafftery. If he didn’t get injured, maybe we could have seen a different combination. But I would have serious questions about Keefe (I already do lol) if he goes with some unknown combination using O’Reilly before the playoffs.





You know the saying, KISS. Why break something that works
Mar. 24, 2023 at 9:37 p.m.
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Quoting: MatthewsFan
I believe it’s a harder group to play against but the scoring is still an issue. This is the same Acciari who was with FLA last year that got swept by TBL:
Acciari - 0 goals 0 points in his last 19 playoff games
Lafferty - zero playoff experience (1 game does not count for me)
Kampf - has struggled really bad this year, 3 goals in his last 43 games. I also don’t believe in the, well he did it last year.
Kerfoot - 1 goal in his last 26 games, struggling to even produce with core guys this year.
ZAR - 4 goals in his last 46 games (two coming in the same game only a week ago)
Jarnkrok ? - has looked incredible when placed in the top six, when in the bottom 6 and playing with this group above, invisible.
Knies - no idea
O’Reilly - for the same reasons I don’t want Jarnkrok in the bottom 6 are the same reasons I don’t want ROR there. To get the most out of him, play him with skill players, otherwise you are wasting him.


Long winded way of saying, they will be harder to play against, meaning harder to score against. But I don’t believe in their chances to score.


which is why I think they'll spread the lines out with something along lines of

Jarnkrok - Matthews - Nylander
Knies or Lafferty - Tavares - Marner
Bunting - ROR - Kerfoot
ZAR or Knies - Kampf - Lafferty or Acciari

or some combo where 3rd line is another legitimate threat while keeping lines 1 and 2 dangerous
Mar. 24, 2023 at 10:25 p.m.
#1212
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Quoting: leafs101
which is why I think they'll spread the lines out with something along lines of

Jarnkrok - Matthews - Nylander
Knies or Lafferty - Tavares - Marner
Bunting - ROR - Kerfoot
ZAR or Knies - Kampf - Lafferty or Acciari

or some combo where 3rd line is another legitimate threat while keeping lines 1 and 2 dangerous



For all the hell I give our bottom 6, TBL doesn’t worry me at all. Just don’t let them outscore us 10-3 again.

Paul - 2 goals in his last 26 games
Jeannot - 2 goals in his last 62 games
Colton - 5 goals in his last 19 games
Perry - 4 goals in his last 26 games
Maroon - 1 goal in his last 39 games
Bellemare - 3 goals in his last 37 games

Using O’Reilly in the bottom 6 against TBL isn’t necessary. Now, matching up against BOS:
Bertuzzi Coyle Frederic (maybe Hall if healthy) is a different story.

If we are able to get by TBL, using Matthews, Tavares, O’Reilly down the middle against BOS will be a must.
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Mar. 25, 2023 at 9:43 p.m.
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Tough, avoidable loss, but there was a lot to like in that game (particularly Auston Matthews). Onto the next game I suppose
Mar. 25, 2023 at 9:44 p.m.
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Page 49 already? Time for a new forum again haha

https://www.capfriendly.com/forums/thread/694656
Mar. 26, 2023 at 9:43 a.m.
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Quoting: Nathaniel
Tough, avoidable loss, but there was a lot to like in that game (particularly Auston Matthews). Onto the next game I suppose


i couldnt watch the game but jaw dropped to the literal floor when I saw 15 SOG for Matthews. That's like inconceivably ridiculous.
 
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