Well i will say i didnt see one pick was washingtons,
But even then im not far off. Pick value at that level is similar.

Late 1st ~= 2nds, and early-mid 2nds ~= late 1sts.
This is a well estabilished fact

LMAO now mid 2nds are basically late 1st. Good to know

They always have been, but general consensus on that has only been proven in the last 10 years or so.
Basically what I am saying is that your opinion is 10-15 years out of date lmao

Well **** if every second is equal value to a late 1st I guess teams can just trade 2nds instead of 1st now. FFS that's some of the dumbest stuff I've ever heard. But but but some guy on Twitter has a fancy chart of numbers.

Waste of my time and better off on my ignore list

Congrats. Your rude post accidentally discovered why smart GM's have been trading their picks back to gain extra value.

Dude is so angry he correctly figures out the logical consequences of what I said, a consequence that GM's have been exploiting in recent years and follows that up with
"This is crap, waste of my time - blocked"

I love CapFriendly lmao

I understand the point you're trying to make -- there's not much difference between a late 1st and an early-mid 2nd -- but even at that, I don't see how you get that that the picks Arizona got are equal to two late 1sts and a top 10 pick. Are you expecting Ottawa to end up in the bottom 10 of the league this year (which would make the 2023 1st a top 10 pick) and Washington and Ottawa to be near the bottom of the league in 2024 and 2026, respectively (which would make the two 2nds each almost equal to a late 1st)?

Another thing to consider is that the farther a pick is into the future, the less it's worth. It may have the same probability of developing into a good NHL player, but because it'll take longer to bear fruit, that's not as valuable to teams today. It's like the net present value concept for money -- a dollar today is worth more than a dollar years from now. That's difficult to measure though, because there's no identifiable interest rate on draft picks.

"...and for the 1st pick of the 2nd round, the Arizona Coyotes select ... the entire 2nd round"

Washington I think is the biggest wildcard here, and there is always the possibility that the Sens might put it together too.

But to answer your question, largely yes.
I do not respect Ottawa and the Dorian group at all. I think they bungled their rebuild years ago - which is why they need to trade the future for guys like Chychrun - because they donked the picks that they had to d&d their own versions



Yes I am aware of time value - in fact I'm publicly one its biggest boosters on this site (go see the Tkachuk trade thread for example).
This is another example of my sloppiness. Like the WSH pick I initially didn't notice how far out some of the picks were. Regardless the trade isn't hinging on a 2026 early 2nd here, and that certainly doesn't justify the consensus reaction we have seen on CF and elsewhere.

The one thing I will say is that Arizona is a bit of a special case in that they both have a large number of far futures and their ownership/money situation justifies trades acquiring more far-futures than any other team. Still time value diminishes the pick value - just not as severely in my opinion.

Makes me think Arizona should be looking at moving Keller in the next year or two along with the inevitable Schmaltz trade this summer

Feel like people are not giving enough credit to OTT's 23' 1st. It's currently at 13th position. That's carrying a lot of value here. ARZ could have been getting offers for more but with later 1sts. Obviously OTT could go up in the standings while on a heater now that they have Chychrun. They were already on a 3 game winning streak. Armstrong out in the parking lot slashing player's car tires so they're late to games.

WSH's 24' 2nd will also probably be low to mid round (no offense Capitols fans, I just don't see a bounce back next season)

2026 2nd is hilarious

I think you've hit the nail on the head. Arizona is betting on Ottawa missing the playoffs this year. People talk about these trades as if all 1sts are equal, but as my friend Random2152 showed us, the value drops off a lot as you get toward the end of the round, to the point where a late 1st is not much better than an early-to-mid 2nd. If the other teams bidding on Chychrun are firmly entrenched in playoff spots, no matter how many 2nds, 3rds and 4ths they threw in, they couldn't offer Arizona a chance at a top 10 pick this year. Did Arizona lower their return by waiting too long? Possibly. But it's also possible that they were waiting for what they saw as a good chance at a high pick. They already had a large stockpile of draft picks, so maybe their goal here was quality over quantity. Fans of teams near the top of the standings who were hoping to get him, console yourselves. You probably never had a chance.

I want to make it known just how DISASTEROUS this trade really was. Damage goods Damage goods Damage goods. Paying Luxury Car HIGH prices for Ford Pintos, Ladas, Gremlins, etc.

Since they are holding a bazillion picks over the next few years if they want the flexibility to trade up, Ottawa's pick even at 16 is also a much better foundation for a trade to picks 9-15 than a pick in the high twenties. Teams in the top 15 are going to be willing to drop a handful of spots much more readily than slide all the way back to 27.

A significant part about this trade is that the Senators haven't had a legitimate top 4 since 2012 or before that.

Bryan Murray spent years trying to add a top 4 defenseman, both internally and externally. Cowen and Wiercioch both did not develop as expected, and the budget combined with some bad contracts prevented the team from building the top 4.

Then Phaneuf trade was a creative way around that. Phaneuf and Ceci were deployed like a #1 shutdown pair, but I think it's debatable whether both were legitimate top 4 defensemen. Phaneuf fell off a cliff once be left Boucher's system. I don't think Ceci was ever as bad as be was made out to be. He was mostly a victim of how few fans/twitter mathematicians are qualified for scout defenseman. With all that said, I think it's fair to atleast say that may not have been a legitimate top 4.

I don't think you read the thread, the Coyotes didn't get Pinto.

Teams can only develop so many prospects in their system, and their won't always be opportunities to consolidate the value of multiple picks to trade up like with San Jose last year.

I also highly doubt Arizona will construct an actual roster with long term pieces anytime soon. So it's not like they are going to flip the 2026 2nd.

In practical terms, by the time they are in a position to cash in on that 2026 2nd in any way, it will be 2026. Yes, people are correct that future picks are less valuable than current picks, but it when a team already had multiple top 96 picks list year, this year, and next year, it doesn't matter at all. In fact, it wouldn't surprise me if Ottawa offered up a sooner 3rd, and the 2026 2nd was Arizona's idea. They had a similar condition with the Rangers and opted to take a future 2nd.

They benefit from spreading out their picks because there is no conceivable way to draft an average of 12+ times for years straight and get max value out of those picks.

2023 -- two 1sts, one 2nd, four 3rds -- 7 in the first three rounds
2024 -- one 1st, four 2nds, three 3rds -- 8
2025 -- one 1st, four 2nds, two 3rds -- 7
2026 -- one 1st, three 2nds, two thirds -- 6

Plus all the late picks. Picks are a good trade commodity in their situation. They don't take up a roster or contract slot. They can trade up, trade back or out of a round completely and pick up more that year or another year, trade for young guys they like (McBain, Smith last year).

We'll see where Ottawa lands and what they do with that pick before I have a fit about this deal. It's not a trade I would have made, but lots of trades aren't.

i swear that guy has half this website blocked just because they've mildly annoyed him or disagreed with him

Im not certain if this was intended, but this is pretty much just what I said, but in more detail. So yeah we mostly agree (i think your reason is slightly different but generally correct enough so ehh)

This really feels like the Sens are going on a magical run, almost like the Hamburglar one.

They have been one of the hottest teams in the league, and they showed up huge in those two clutch games against Detroit. They smoked Detroit and showed they wanted it.

If you follow the Chychrun stuff, it's the cherry on top and it's given the team something else to rally around. They brought in another player who dreamed of being a Senators. For a team that has struggled with having their territory invaded by fans of the Canadiens and Maple Leafs, it's huge when the team has now been around long enough for their to be star players who grew up here and want to play for Ottawa.

Dorion made the right call to not move out any roster players. It is pretty clear that they have something special going on right now in the room. Even something like moving out Brannstrom or one of the defensemen who gets pushed down the depth chart, it wouldn't be worth disrupting things by voting someone who helped the Senators with this turn around of the island.

The Zaitsev trade was an isolated case, and he already was on and off the team all season. He had one foot out the door, and was probably grateful to move on.

The big thing is that if the Senators opt to extend Chychrun in two years, while it will still cost top 2 money, he will almost certainly want to be here. That's another big aspect of the trade. He will only be 27 at the end of his contract. Aside from defensemen who play a really heavy stay at home type style and take a lot of punishment, most defenseman take longer to fall off than forwards. Especially ones who aren't slow and can handle losing a step. The Senators window to do something with this core is the next 5 or so years. They conceivably traded for a player who will be around for that entire window.