Edited Mar. 17, 2023 at 7:24 a.m.
An aggregate look at playoff chances using three sources
1.
538
2.
The Athletic
3.
Moneypuck
Overall rank. Team. 538 pts, Ath pts, MP pts (avg) -- (probabilities for bubble teams)
Metro
2. CAR: 116, 116, 118 (avg: 116.6)*
3. NJD: 111, 113, 113 (avg: 112.4)*
8. NYR: 105, 104, 103 (avg: 103.7)*
15. PIT: 94, 96, 95 (avg: 95.1) -- (avg 77% chance of playoffs)
18. NYI: 92, 92, 93 (avg: 92.4) -- (avg 50% chance of playoffs)
20. WAS: 88, 88, 87 (avg: 87.5) -- (avg 8% chance of playoffs)
27. PHI: 73, 74, 74 (avg: 73.5)^
32. CBJ: 62, 62, 62 (avg: 61.8)^
Atlantic
1. BOS: 128, 127, 127 (avg: 127.4)*
4. TOR: 107, 108, 107 (avg: 107.4)*
9. TBL: 104, 103, 104 (avg: 103.6)*
17. FLA: 92, 93, 93 (avg: 92.7) -- (avg 55% chance of playoffs)
21. BUF: 88, 87, 87 (avg: 87.1) -- (avg 8% chance of playoffs)
22. OTT: 84, 85, 84 (avg: 84.1)^
23. DET: 84, 83, 83 (avg: 83.2)^
28. MTL: 71, 71, 70 (avg: 70.8)^
Central
7. DAL: 103, 106, 104 (avg: 104.3)*
10. COL: 105, 103, 102 (avg: 103.3)*
11. MIN: 103, 102, 103 (avg: 102.5)*
14. WPG: 94, 96, 95 (avg: 95.2) -- (avg 62% chance of playoffs)
19. NSH: 92, 94, 91 (avg: 92.3) -- (avg 25% chance of playoffs)
25. STL: 79, 79, 79 (avg: 78.8)^
26. ARI: 76, 73, 74 (avg: 74.4)^
30. CHI: 66, 62, 67 (avg: 64.7)^
Pacific
5. VGK: 105, 106, 104 (avg: 105.2)*
6. LAK: 104, 104, 106 (avg: 104.4)*
12. EDM: 101, 102, 102 (avg: 101.5)*
13. SEA: 99, 99, 100 (avg: 99.5) -- (avg 92% chance of playoffs)
16. CGY: 92, 92, 94 (avg: 92.8) -- (avg 28% chance of playoffs)
24. VAN: 80, 82, 78 (avg: 79.9)^
29. ANA: 66, 65, 66 (avg: 65.4)^
31. SJS: 62, 63, 64 (avg: 63)^
* unanimous choice to make playoffs (97-100% chance)
^ unanimous choice to miss playoffs (0-3% chance)
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Using the aggregate projections...
Playoffs - round one
CAR (M1) vs PIT (WC1)
NJD (M2) vs NYR (M3)
BOS (A1) vs FLA (WC2)
TOR (A2) vs TBL (A3)
DAL (C1) vs SEA (WC1)
COL (C2) vs MIN (C3)
VGK (P1) vs WPG (WC2)
LAK (P2) vs EDM (P3)
------
2nd round
CAR vs NJD
BOS vs TOR
DAL vs COL
VGK vs EDM
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Conf finals
BOS vs CAR
DAL vs EDM
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Stanley Cup finals
BOS vs EDM
Champ: BOS