Team: 2023-24 Toronto Maple Leafs

Initial Creation Date: Mar. 8, 2023

Published: Mar. 8, 2023

Salary Cap Mode: Basic

We all know Arizona is cash poor and needs to artificially stay above the cap floor and pay minimal amounts of actual cash to stay viable and make payroll. They are treading water until their new arena is built in the hopes that a new arena in a better location with a young and exciting team will put them back in the black on the ledger.

This creates an opportunity for a cash rich team like the Leafs to take advantage of that situation.

Here I have the Leafs acquiring 2 players that are good-to-very good players that are on deals with significant term that pay significant real money.

1. LW Crouse is owed 17.9 million dollars on the remaining 4 years of his contract.
2. C/RW Schmaltz is owed a whopping 22.95 million on the remaining 3 years of his contract, which also includes a 1.5 M cash signing bonus in 24-25. On top of that, he has a NTC that kicks in as of July 1, 2023 so if ARZ wants out of that $ commitment, they will want to move him at the draft.

In exchange for taking on the almost 41 million dollars in money owed (for two good players mind you), the Leafs would send back:

1. Matt Murray (this assumes his inconsistency and injury problems continue and Samsonov is the better bet). Murray has just 1 year remaining at $8,000,000 (real money), however OTT is eating 2 M of that. If he is injured, insurance covers most of the bill and he can be placed on IR to still count against their cap to reach the floor. Alternatively, they can buy him out which would not help their cap floor issues as much, but would save them real money as the buyout would cost 2M x 2 years for a total of 4M real dollars. [NTC considerations here as well, but I think the Leafs can work around that with Murray.]
2. Jake Muzzin (assumes his career is done and he is okay with the paychecks coming from ARZ's insurance company). ARZ can use his contract by placing him on IR to move 5.625 M closer to the cap floor. Leafs likely promise him a front office job the following year a la Spezza.

The Leafs would send some good assets along to ARZ as well:
1. 2023 1st round pick (BOS)
2. LW prospect Hirvonen (top 5 in the Leafs system and near NHL ready)
3. 2024 3rd round pick (NYI)
4. (ARZ could also have one of the Leafs younger RFAs that need to be resigned like Abruzzese or Der-Arguchintsev, both require waivers if resigned so the Leafs may used them as trade pieces instead of potentially losing them for nothing)

***Remember, this isn't just a hockey deal but a business deal so the return may not be as high as the general fan or Coyotes fan would expect/want. There are only a handful of teams with the money to make a deal like this and who are in a position to take on these contracts next season.

All told the Coyotes end up between 0 - 4M in real dollar commitments over 2 years while avoiding needing to pay out 41M in real dollars over the next 4 years. They get 5.625M phantom cap they can use to reach the cap floor if necessary with another potential 4.69M phantom cap from Murray if he's injured (or less if they buy him out with 4M in real dollars spent).

The Leafs end up with a very good 3C, who could also play top-6 RW or 2C if they want to shift Tavares to LW (like they have done with O'Rielly). They also get their missing power forward element in Crouse who can ride shotgun with Matthews and Marner. He essentially becomes a Bunting replacement as there isn't enough cap to bring Bunting back as well (nor would I commit to him long term at north of 3M, though I appreciate what he brings it just doesn't make good sense long term).

There are risks here for the Leafs of course. They now have an additional 10.15M on their cap when Matthews and Nylander need new contracts in 24-25. However, they will have Brodie's 5M coming off the cap and a presumed increase of several million on the cap, let's say 3M. That would allow them to sign Matthews at 13M per season and Nylander at 9.5M per season (roughly 4M in raises). Then resigning Marner the following season at 12.5M should not be a problem with Tavares' contract coming off the books at the same time and further cap increases (could resign Tavares to play LW at a hometown discount for 2 years if he wants). They will also likely have a rough year on D in 2025-26 with Brodie gone, Reilly getting older, and not much other than Niemela in the pipeline. UFA options will be limited due to cap, but they could add a good pending-UFA D at the deadline if they avoid LTIR.

Other Notes:
- I have re-signed Acciari for 4 years, which seems like a lot of term, but it is at the amount that can be safely sent to the minors with no cap penalty. At his age I think he takes the money, likely plays 2-3 of those years as a reliable 4C with spot 3RW duty before being sent down or traded.

- I signed Miles Wood as an energy 4th liner to fit well with Acciari and Lafferty. The contract may not be realistic, but I am assuming that coming off injury with lower production we may be able to get him on a 1 or 2 year deal at 2-ish million as a prove it type deal with opportunity. He would have potential to play further up the lineup should Knies or Robertson not be viable options in the top-9. [I have a feeling Buffalo or Boston signs him for more money and term though.]

- I re-signed Schenn as the new 6/7 D option for 2 years. Seeing how excited he is to return to Toronto, I feel like he may be down with that (if he doesn't ant to move back to Vancouver).

- I resigned Samsonov to a 4 year deal with an estimated low cap hit assuming he takes it to be the established starter on a contending team and will still be just 30 when the contract expires with an opportunity for a bigger payday at that time if he has success. HE seems to quite like it here as well. There is about a million of wiggle room on that signing, more if they don't sign Wood and go with a McMann or Steves on the 4th line instead.

Anyway, those are my Wednesday morning ramblings. Have fun tearing them down CapFriendly community.