How does MTL trading for Dubois take less cap than signing him as a UFA (if he decides to go that route)? Unless he comes with an extension already in place he can just play out the year and test free agency, and MTL would be in the exact same position as they would have been anyway, except they'd be out 2 first round picks and a pair of decent prospects. If he does want to play for the Habs then a reasonable offer will get him in free agency, and if he doesn't then they'd likely lose him after a season if they trade for him.

Dubois is an rfa this offseason which would give the habs his rights and main team to negotiate with. If the amount of trades for Dubois on here shows that there is a mutual interest in Dubois to the habs. It will be cheaper cap wise as when a ufa goes to market they have 32 teams that can make offers where the price can go up exponentially past what he would make now on a contract (8-9 long term now vs 9.5-10.5 ufa for same term) if you want him in free agency thats fine just don't complain when he goes to another team for a similar price and why they didn't pay to get a guy that wants to play there capeach

Unless he comes with an extension Dubois can test free agency after a season in MTL just like he can if they don't trade for him. As it stands right now MTL trading for Dubois is a waste of assets. Either the rumours are true and Dubois wants to play in MTL, which means he likely signs a reasonable deal after next season, or he doesn't/doesn't care where he plays, which means he would simply play out the year and test free agency anyway. Both scenarios mean that MTL likely pays him the same or close enough to not matter if he decides to sign with them. There's almost no benefit for MTL to trade for Dubois at this point.

Jets fans would be "unsatisfied" with that return? Damn, that's setting oneself up for disappointment 2 1sts (keep in mind that these aren't late 1sts, either) alongside a solid stopgap 2C and two recent 2nd round picks that have increased their stock since being drafted is a LOT- I'd argue that it's more than what Meier got. If I were a MTL fan, the highest I'd probably offer is Dvorak, Kidney, whichever of the '23 1sts is lower, and a '25 1st (top-10 protected)- and that would only be under the premise that I would've arranged a long-term extension with Dubois prior.

That's the whole point Dubois going to mtl would 100% come with an extension or some sort of arrangement where they understand his ask in a deal that is close to make it work. That's why he's getting similar to meier as he's younger rfa still and a center. I've seen dach and barron with a first in 2023 so this seems like less than that

HE IS AN RFA! That means that he is under team control you know that right? Why would Dubois sign a 1 year deal in mtl if he wants to play there. That's just not even close to what would happen. Why would he go to ufa if he's on the team he wants to be on long term? Answer that

Then put his extension into the trade description. Dubois could likely get similar to Meier in a trade, if it's to a team looking to make noise in the playoffs. Without an extension anything near the value Winnipeg wants isn't something MTL should touch.



Yes, he is an RFA for 1 more season, meaning he is under team control for that 1 season. If he wants to be in MTL they can simple wait and get him as a UFA for what would likely be the same or nearly the same cap hit as trading for him and signing him long term as an RFA. Or, he might not want to play in MTL, or just might not care where he plays, meaning he will likely want to test free agency even if he's traded to MTL, which means that in order to keep him after trading for him it would cost the same as if they had simple waited, except now they'd be out 2 1sts and 2 decent prospects. Without a long term extension in place MTL is a bad trade partner in a Dubois deal since the 1 year he is under team control isn't one that MTL is likely to be competitive in.

Dach, Barron, 1st is short sighted.
That combination of pieces are needed more than Dubois at this point in time and may well be more valuable to our future.

If Dubois was on Hughes' radar, you have to think he doesn't trade for Dach. If he did look at Dubois first, that means Winnipeg either didn't want to trade him or wanted too much.

Regardless, we made our choice and now we have to see it through. If Dach isn't the answer and Dubois is UFA, maybe we look at signing him then. For now we aren't interested.

Keep him as an own rental or trade him at the deadline if you can't manage to sign him. You'll get more from a contender than from Montreal.
Approximately a late 1st, a 2nd, one good prospect, and a contract to offset cap for next season, for Dubois 50% retained. We'll even help out and retain an additional 50% for a 4th.
I wouldn't do it, but I'd be okay with 12th overall (ish), 40th overall (ish), Beck, and Hoffman for Dubois with no retention.
Anything more and I'd rather use that pick and keep Beck.

I was the one who purposed the Dach, Barron and Florida's 2023 1st trade but that was before Barron had proved to be able to play in the NHL quite effectively and was what I considered to be the absolute max I would consider a fair deal. Now withhow Barron has progressed its more than I feel comfortable with as well.

There are reports that Hughes tried to acquire PLD at the 22 draft after the Romanov trade but the deal fell through and then he pivoted to Dach. So I believe the interest is there.

I don't believe that Dach is the answer at center, he has been playing his best on the wing with Suzuki and Caufield notat center but I agree making a move for PLD and giving up too many major assets right now isn't the smart thing to do.

As for the OP's comment about this package being less than Dach + Barron + 2023 1st you are wrong. Dach = 2024 1st, Beck = Barron and 2023 1st = 2023 1st so we are just supposed to throw in a good roster player in Dvorak and one of our top 10 prospects for free as well?! Habs have another route you didn't mention in your description as well, we can OS PLD at his current salary for 1 year and force the Jets to match and not be able to trade him at next years deadline, so the Jets get nothing in return or let him walk and it only costs us a 2024 1st and 3rd. This is where I peg his current value at (2024 1st and 3rd) due to the fact that he (through his agent) has expressed interest in coming to Montreal and that he wants to test FA. Teams looking to acquire him at next years deadline are going to be giving up a 2024 1st, a good prospect and a roster player for a retained PLD but that is at the deadline premium not in the offseason where the premium doesn't apply.

I understand WPG wanting to cash in on Dubois, but Howie answer that :
Dubois for 8 years at 9M
Or
Dubois for 7 years at 10M minus 2 1st round pick, Owen Beck, Riley Kidney & Christian Dvorak …
I will take the 1M difference and keep all the assets

'24 1st + '24 3rd is what we have to give you if we OS him. We'll make it the COL 2nd instead of the 3rd if you willingly send him over. Please stop assuming we're sending the farm for a guy who will be in MTL after next season regardless.

As with many things, two things can be true at the same time. PLD could be worth more than MTL is offering and MTL won't pay a high price to get him before free agency.

A few things:

-I'm not sure Montreal would value Vesalainen all that much and I'm not sure how you have valued here. But I doubt its more than as a throw in or a Kravstov-type trade.

-Players almost never take discounts just because they're traded where they want to play. You're still competing against the option to test the market. And frankly, Dubois seems like the kind of guy that is more than willing to bet on himself. Even if he wants to be a Hab, he's not going to take a discount just because of that. He'll want to get paid.

-Look at the returns that guys like Meier (RFA which NJ intends to sign or recoup most of the value in a trade), Horvat (Islanders clearly intended to sign) and even Eichel (locked up with a fair contract) got. Beck is a prospect who generally gets ranked around where Mukhamadullin and Raty are ranked (depending on which ranking) and a tier below Krebs was ranked). The Florida pick is likely to be as good or better than any 1st that was moved. Kidney isn't as project-able prospect, but he's still got decent upside. He probably has value at least similar to a 2nd rounder he was picked with. The value of Dvorak (who Montreal isn't looking trade) is probably a little better than what Beavillier's was, but worse than what Tuch's was (even though Tuch only broke out after the trade).

Lets say Dubois' clear preference is Montreal. If Montreal really felt they needed Dubois now, they'd risk an offersheet and force Winnipeg to either take a 1st and a 3rd or match and only be able to trade him as a pure rental in 2024. Now, Montreal wont do that since they're rebuilding and wouldn't risk an unprotected 2024 1st, but that's around were there ceiling would be.

But even if Dubois just wants to test the market and Montreal is only a preferable destination, I'm just not sure I understand how you established Dubois' value in a trade (to anyone). It feels like you think he's worth slightly less than Eichel (less quality, but good quantity) and worth significantly more than guys like Meier and Horvat. And I just don't see how the market would ever get there.

Like, if I was matching a trade to the recent market for a player in Dubois' position, I'd be offering something like:

FLA 2023 1st
Dvorak
Beck
Kidney (or similar prospect)

or

MTL 2023 2nd
COL 2024 2nd (with a condition that it becomes MTL 2024 1st if Montreal makes the playoffs in 2024)
Evans or Gurianov
Beck
Kidney (or similar prospect)

as being around the market price. It seems like with your proposal most teams would explore alternatives or just wait until the deadline.

Btw that second offer is way worse than the first one you offered by a lot. The first one is identical to the one I had besides the extra first sure maybe switch it to Colorado's second next year and it's a deal tbh

Its only much worse depending on how you value cap space. The first is basically an upgraded mirror to the Horvat trade, the other is comparable to the Meier trade.

Neither was a counter-proposal. You want another 2nd, you're not getting Florida's 1st or you're going to have to add something that makes A LOT more sense for Montreal than Vesalainen.

So Florida's 1st Dvorak kidney beck and 2024 Colorado 2nd works

Not for Montreal.

Who do you think Dubois is? Thats more than what Meier went for and Meier is a better player

Debatable

Not even close to debatable. Meier has averaged 61 points and 30 goals since 2017-2018 while being good defensively and most of it being on a bad team while Dubois is averaging 57 points and 24 goals while being bad defensively on a better team

If you switch the teams who's better now huh? It's the age old idea of a player doing bad but a team is bad or player plays good on a bad team what would he do on a good one. Also comparing the value of a center to a wing is hard as Dubois is responsible for more on the ice in a 200 foot game, faceoffs etc. Also Dubois will get a cheaper deal than meier in the future as meier has the qo 10m and Dubois less. I'm not fully saying Dubois is more valuable than Dubois. I'd rather meier myself too but to completely disregard what Dubois brings in comparison. Both are amazing players and to see how they compare in 5 years