Jets fans can't complain about a solid argument

I don't know, it doesn't make any sense for MTL to move future assets for PLD. Is he going to push them over the hump and into the playoffs next season? Probably not. This team has no top pair defenseman, no legit starting goalie, it just doesn't make sense from MTLs perspective. Everyone already knows he wants to play in MTL, but there's no reason to give up significant assets to make it happen.

I think that you're really on the right track here, and I agree with your analysis whole-heartedly except for one potential problem: that first-round draft pick (with top-10 protection) may not turn out to be a 2024 first at all, and it therefore may not turn out to be as good as a current-year 19th overall when it finally DOES come around. I think that you'd have to limit the protection to top-5 to make the deal acceptable to Winnipeg.

No from Winnipeg. Dubois is a better player, playing a more valuable position and Winnipeg is not being forcedto trade him for cap reasons.

The first needs to be in 23 and there stl needs to be more coming from Montreal to be competitive.

Instead of using a completely unrelated trade as a comparable you'd be better of using actual similar comparables like the Horvat or Meier trades.

Don't think Jets are going to take a 1st that's got a high probability of being 2 years from now. Make it Florida's 1st this year

Yeah when the offer is worse than a rental offer it gets sad. Like you know we can trade Dubois minimum for what horvat got right? Why take a worse deal? Just because he goes where he wants? If the jets trade Dubois it's for the best return possible and this isn't close to that whatsoever especially if he can be traded to a team where he'd extend. It's not mtl or bust as most people seen to think.

All depends on if other GMs believe they can sign him long term. Which I'm hesitant to believe is the case.

I think OP makes some very strong arguments for this type of value. I agree with ledge and dairy though that the first would have to be the Florida first likely in the 13-16 overall range.

I also think Faber had quite a bit more value than Beck does so might need a different prospect in there.

I looked into this a bit before posting. Brock Faber was an honorable mention in Wheeler's top 50 prospect list right after the draft. Beck was ranked 50th by Wheeler as of last month. Mind you a chunk of players from the previous top 50 have graduated or moved around since then (including Faber who has moved up to rank 40). My point is maybe they aren't that far off eachother.

I don't think it has to be a 2023 1st since the Habs can see if Dubois will agree to a 1 year 6.3 mil OS and only potentially give up a 2024 1st and 3rd. I would be willing to remove all conditions on the 2024 1st if we can add a roster player like Dvorak to the deal

That 2024 1st i almost certainly still going to be top 5 even with PLD, hell it will probably still be top 10 if they added PLD and Bedard to next years roster. Zero chance Montreal considers an offer sheet on anyone. Not to mention Winnipeg can easily match that OS price wise.

PLD is NOT getting you a Meier return. He is only 24, but Meier is on another level above PLD. Bad comparable.

What's the difference between the Fiala trade and Horvat trade? B tier prospect, and a first? (Unless you're adding Beau, who I wouldn't consider to have that much trade value at the time he was traded).

The classic WPG homer strikes again

Yes I forgot to add the 2024 Jets pick coming back my bad. The reason they may not match the OS though is cause if they do they can't trade PLD at the next TDL meaning they get nothing when he does walk in FA. So yeah price wise they may match but vs no return later they may not.

Even if MTL won the lottery (Bedard) and trade for Dubois, they still won’t be a playoff team
Like you said, it makes zero sense for MTL
But hey, Campabee is having fun being unrealistic and making contract disappear

This is a really big reason why I like the idea of OS, that may be the contributing factor depending how they feel about the team for next year.

How is using previous trade history being unrealistic?! Fiala got 19th OVA + Faber (ranked just outside the top 50 prospects at the time of the trade. We are looking at a 2024 1st (likely in the range of 10-16 + Beck who was ranked the 50th top prospect just this month. We add Dvorak as a middle 6 center for a 1st in the same 2024 draft likely in the 17-25 range but have to give up top 10 protection (maybe you could argue for keeping top 5 protection but the value is good for both sides. We have 2 shots at a RD in the 2023 draft and are likely to select Herbal in the 3nd round if still available. So we are still building through the draft but also adding a young top 6C to the mix as well. How is that a loss for the Habs?

The trade is losing assets for no reason
The value is fine tho
MTL will stink next year, why trade for PLD next season when we can get him for free in 2024 ? MTL just extended Jake Allen, they aren’t trading him
Everything above is unrealistic outside the value of the trade

It's unlikely, but possible. The most probaly situation is that there are many teams where PLD is willing to sign long term and the Jets will move him to one of those teams to maximize the return.

It's is true though that the first will need to be in 23. There's no logical or rational reason or incentive for the Jets to wait until 24 for a protected 1st.

The OP is guilty of the normal ACGM foibles. They only look at the trade from their side and don't give any consideration to the other teams needs, wants or reasons for making the deal.

You have demonstrated many, many times that you have no realistic grasp on player values.

Like Meier compared to PLD. The both score within 1 point of each other historically while PLD is two years younger.

Then you throw in that while Meier is a nice player, he's only a winger, while PLD is a young 1C the rarest thing in hockey. Meier just isn't in the same league.

Anyways, just take some time to educate yourself a little bit on hockey and which positions are hardest to fill and you'll start to gain a little perspective on how player values work.

Then you just need to work on viewing proposals without bias and stop with trolling and personal attacks when you don't have a valid counterpoint instead of displaying your ignorance with childish replies.

"Rarest thing in hockey" is that your own head cannon telling you that?

He's not getting you the return you think he is buddy. Cope with it and move on.

Has HE demonstrated that he knows nothing of player values... or have you?

PLD, prior to this season, was an average 60pt 2C. This season, better numbers, a 72 point pace.
Meier, the past two seasons, is a ppg+ goal scoring power forward.

He's better than Dubois right now. Not to mention Meier was putting up these numbers on a rebuilder. I don't know what "the rarest thing in hockey" is supposed to mean, or if you just made that up?
PLD isn't fetching you this rare, unicorn like return where a team is willing to give up 3 firsts because Windjammer on capfriendly said "he's the rarest thing in hockey!!!!"

If you're looking at a PLD return, you're looking towards a Horvat return:
1st
B prospect
Young roster player..

OR, a Chychrun return.
1st
two 2nds.
(which is similar in value....)

We saw what happened when the Yotes asking price for Chychrun was near two firsts+... they were waited out because nobody wanted to pay that price for him, regardless if he was a 24 year old top pairing LHD.
You're gonna see something similar if WPG takes the same route. The return, will be similar to one of those above^

Brush up a bit on your players and trade history.

I like how you use Dubois' career numbers, but only the last two for Meier on a feeble attempt to try and tilt the numbers so that you have a case for debate.

The fact is that Dubois and Meier produce at a trade within 1 point of each other over their careers and Dubois had done that while being younger and playing the more demanding position of center as opposed to a position with less responsibilities in winger. Both are power forwards, so in don't know why you made that silly point.

You definitely bring your hockey "knowledge" into doubt if you don't follow hockey enough to know that centers are always more valuable than wingers when they produce about the same. That's very basic hockey knowledge that smile that follows hockey should know.

So, you should probably go back and educate yourself on position and player values in trades and work on a rebuttal point where to don't have to resort to being disingenuous and trying to use cherry picked stats to try and give yourself a position to defend.

You just come off as being ignorant of basic hockey knowledge when you have to resort do cherry picking.

There simply is no rational or logical reasoning to support your position. PLD is younger, produces the same and does so while playing the more difficult position. Hence carries equal or more value. You can build a team around centers, you can't build a team around wingers.

You can build a team around any position. This is hockey. LHD, RHD, Goaltending, Wingers, Centers... it's not just "he's a center, so his value is more!"
I picked Meier's past two seasons specifically because they are better than any point total Dubois has scored in his career. If anything, it shows Meier's worth more.
They both scored around 60 point paces, until the past two seasons where Meier flourished, scoring 35 and a ppg+ season total in back to back years on a rebuilder.

You are the ONLY one believing in this magical, fantasy mock trade where Dubois will score you a kings ransom if traded.
Also, thanks for clarifying I'm the one whos ignorant, when you ignored almost every point I made, lmao. Really shows the homer in you!
Are we gonna ignore the Chychrun return..?

I know Jets fans are having a super hard time with knowing Dubois secretly doesn't want to play for their team, and might one day leave, but this is the reality of it.

You know how to tell who knows what they are talking about and who is exaggerating? The one exaggerating is the one claiming a 60-70 point top 6 center is the rarest thing in hockey. That means they are literally saying that PLD is better than a generational talent (which is truly the rarest thing in hockey) like McDavid, Crosby, Orr and Gretzky. PLD isn't even a franchise talent the likes of Draisaitl, Thompson, Mathews, Headman, Makar, Price, Vasilevsky and Hellebuyck. He currently ranks as a top line or top 6 center, these are the guys who put up 60-80 points a season, guys on this list include Suzuki, Aho, Barzal, PLD, Couture and Cozens. These are the guys who ideally play 2nd line on contending teams but can play top line on any teams if needed.

He is a widely known Winnipeg homer.

A 60-70 point center to him, is going to get Winnipeg 3 firsts and 2 A tier prospects in a trade.
Windjammer doesn't live in the realm of realism. It's all "my team my team my team"

I have been arguing this with him for the past year or so. This is the first time though I recall him saying PLD was the rarest thing in hockey. PLD doesn't even play the rarest/hardest position to find in hockey which is a top pairing RHD, how many Makar's can you find in the NHL vs how many 60-70 point centers?!