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Forums/Armchair-GM

Controversial who is better

Created by: Juiceman
Team: 2022-23 Custom Team
Initial Creation Date: Mar. 27, 2023
Published: Mar. 27, 2023
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Description
My picks are the players on the left side. I am willing to justify my picks
ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
26$82,500,000$208,902,250$0$0-$126,402,250
Left WingCentreRight Wing
Logo of the Colorado Avalanche
$9,000,000$9,000,000
RD
UFA - 5
Logo of the New York Rangers
$9,500,000$9,500,000
RD
UFA - 7
Logo of the Vancouver Canucks
$7,850,000$7,850,000
LD
UFA - 5
Logo of the Dallas Stars
$8,450,000$8,450,000
LD/RD
UFA - 7
Logo of the Nashville Predators
$9,059,000$9,059,000
LD
NMC
UFA - 6
Logo of the Tampa Bay Lightning
$7,875,000$7,875,000
LD
M-NTC
UFA - 3
Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
$6,250,000$6,250,000
LD
NMC
UFA - 6
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$7,500,000$7,500,000
LD
NMC
UFA - 8
Logo of the Boston Bruins
$6,500,000$6,500,000
LD
NTC, NMC
UFA - 8
Logo of the Florida Panthers
$7,500,000$7,500,000
RD
NMC
UFA - 3
Logo of the Boston Bruins
$9,500,000$9,500,000
RD
UFA - 8
Logo of the Colorado Avalanche
$4,100,000$4,100,000
LD
UFA - 2
Logo of the Dallas Stars
$7,750,000$7,750,000
LW, RW
RFA - 4
Logo of the Minnesota Wild
$9,000,000$9,000,000
LW
UFA - 4
Logo of the Vancouver Canucks
$7,350,000$7,350,000
C, LW
UFA - 2
Logo of the New Jersey Devils
$8,000,000$8,000,000
C
UFA - 8
Logo of the Florida Panthers
$9,500,000$9,500,000
RW
UFA - 8
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$10,903,000$10,903,000
RW
UFA - 3
Logo of the Vancouver Canucks
$5,250,000$5,250,000
C, LW, RW
UFA - 1
Logo of the New York Islanders
$4,125,000$4,125,000
C
UFA - 1
Logo of the Colorado Avalanche
$6,300,000$6,300,000
C
NMC
UFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$11,640,250$11,640,250
C
UFA - 2
Logo of the Tampa Bay Lightning
$9,500,000$9,500,000
RW
NMC
UFA - 5
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$8,500,000$8,500,000
C, LW
M-NTC, NMC
UFA - 3
Logo of the Tampa Bay Lightning
$8,500,000$8,500,000
LW, C
NMC
UFA - 2
Logo of the Washington Capitals
$9,500,000$9,500,000
LW
M-NTC, NMC
UFA - 4
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender

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Mar. 27, 2023 at 8:30 p.m.
#51
I Love J Boqvist
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Quoting: mokumboi
Dude, stop trying to do intentional false equivalencies. They're not arguments. And I hate to break it to you, but most analytic formulas grade Heisky out higher. So you picked the one cherry-picked formula who gives Hughes an advantage for the particular time frame you prefer. That's the definition of cherry-picking. Sorry.


Evolving hockey overrates the canucks bc they are heavily lucky offensively (they use actual goals for offense) and have had bad goaltending (they use xGoals for defense).
Mar. 27, 2023 at 8:42 p.m.
#52
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Quoting: mokumboi
Dude, stop trying to do intentional false equivalencies. They're not arguments. And I hate to break it to you, but most analytic formulas grade Heisky out higher. So you picked the one cherry-picked formula who gives Hughes an advantage for the particular time frame you prefer. That's the definition of cherry-picking. Sorry.


You know what else is not an argument? Whatever you’re saying. Now tell me. I’m open to hearing arguments on how Heiskanen has been better this season, but you haven’t made any
Mar. 27, 2023 at 8:43 p.m.
#53
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Quoting: dgibb10
Evolving hockey overrates the canucks bc they are heavily lucky offensively (they use actual goals for offense) and have had bad goaltending (they use xGoals for defense).


Lol so your argument is that evolving hockey is biased towards canucks? Keep trolling. At least come up with a valid argument instead of making big reaches like this.
Mar. 27, 2023 at 8:45 p.m.
#54
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Quoting: dgibb10
Hughes is a playmaker too he was just stuck with Erik Haula for most of the year while Pettersson gets Kuzmenko.

Haula has had the same amount of xGoals playing alongside hughes as Kuz has alongside Pettersson, but Haula has been snakebitten and unable to finish a SINGLE chance hughes has provided him all year (yes you're reading that right, 0 goals).
Meanwhile Kuzmenko of the same amount of chances has given pettersson 22 assists.

Switch that scoring ability/luck and Hughes would be at 108 points while Pettersson at 71.


That’s not how it works. You can’t just give and take away goals because of “could have should have would have”. How about the fact that Pettersson is one of the leaders in post/crossbar hits? Pettersson isn’t exactly lucky. As for Kuzmenko, a lot of his goals are deflections/tap ins. That’s why his shooting % is so high. It isn’t like Pettersson is just randomly touching the puck and picking up assists
Mar. 27, 2023 at 8:46 p.m.
#55
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Quoting: mokumboi
Dude, stop trying to do intentional false equivalencies. They're not arguments. And I hate to break it to you, but most analytic formulas grade Heisky out higher. So you picked the one cherry-picked formula who gives Hughes an advantage for the particular time frame you prefer. That's the definition of cherry-picking. Sorry.


It’s not cherry picking. EVO, EVD, Off, Def, GAR, and WAR aren’t cherry picked stats. They are used by almost every analytical model
Mar. 27, 2023 at 8:49 p.m.
#56
mokumboi
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Quoting: Juiceman
You know what else is not an argument? Whatever you’re saying. Now tell me. I’m open to hearing arguments on how Heiskanen has been better this season, but you haven’t made any


I have made numerous arguments about both these players and about the inherently faulty measure you've used, but you just ignore or wildly misrepresent them. But whatever, man. If you want to believe that Hughes is much better than Heiskanen based on using one thoroughly subjective measure for a specified period of time, have at it. Just know that nobody is going to go along with it. Because duh.
Mar. 27, 2023 at 8:52 p.m.
#57
mokumboi
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Quoting: Juiceman
It’s not cherry picking. EVO, EVD, Off, Def, GAR, and WAR aren’t cherry picked stats. They are used by almost every analytical model


Yes, that is very much cherry picking. I cannot help but feel like you do not understand what that phrase means. And exactly none of those stats are objective. Most of them are not even individual stats.
Mar. 27, 2023 at 9:08 p.m.
#58
I Love J Boqvist
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Quoting: Juiceman
That’s not how it works. You can’t just give and take away goals because of “could have should have would have”. How about the fact that Pettersson is one of the leaders in post/crossbar hits? Pettersson isn’t exactly lucky. As for Kuzmenko, a lot of his goals are deflections/tap ins. That’s why his shooting % is so high. It isn’t like Pettersson is just randomly touching the puck and picking up assists


That is exactly how predictive analysis should work. (and it's how Evolving hockey's model DOES work for defense, again inflating canucks players numbers). But yes I'm sure shooting at the highest % any player has since 1990 is very sustainable and definitely predictive of the future. (although its probably just bc the pacific has garbage goalies)


Why is should have could have would have okay to use for defensive metrics but not offensive?? Seems a bit hypocritical from you no??

In terms of crossbars and snakebitten, that would be Erik Haula, also I'd love a source on your post/crossbars leaderboard. Bc just from watching I can think of at least a few dozen points hughes has missed out on from overturned goals, posts, and crossbars. Heck i can think of close to 10 from the last few weeks
Mar. 27, 2023 at 9:18 p.m.
#59
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Quoting: Juiceman
Lol so your argument is that evolving hockey is biased towards canucks? Keep trolling. At least come up with a valid argument instead of making big reaches like this.


Not intentionally, but due to the model, it does this year. It even admits that its offensive numbers are influenced by luck if you read about it, and the canucks, specifically Pettersson, Kuzmenko, and Horvat (which is where 63/93 pettersson points and 28/58 pettersson assists come from.) have been very lucky this year in terms of shooting, (mostly due to bad goaltending). And even if you say its not luck (it is just look at last year where they had a negative goals above expectation), that would simply mean Pettersson has much better finishers around him.
Mar. 27, 2023 at 9:35 p.m.
#60
I Love J Boqvist
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Quoting: mokumboi
Yes, that is very much cherry picking. I cannot help but feel like you do not understand what that phrase means. And exactly none of those stats are objective. Most of them are not even individual stats.


He also has no idea what goes into these stats. Spouting these stats while at the same time questioning xGoals (which is what the defensive model is built on) shows his lack of knowledge
mokumboi liked this.
Mar. 27, 2023 at 9:35 p.m.
#61
Rip
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Quoting: Stammer_Time91
Your hypocrisy is astonishing. Me being a Tampa fan has no bearing on the argument of MacKinnon vs Matthews. Your response however reeks of envy since you are a leafs fan. Matthews is a very elite player. But he is not yet as good as MacKinnon is. Your argument of playoff performance is flat out ignorant. Saying it took him 5 years to get out of the first round is the exact same thing Matthews is currently struggling with. Since you clearly are unaware of the history I'll fill you in. MacKinnon went to the playoffs when he was 18 and 22. Both first round exits, at the hand of the team, not his own individual play. Yes it took him 3 tries to get out of the second round, but again, his individual play is not what caused them to lose. MacKinnon is well over a point per game in the playoffs. Matthews on the other hand, has gone to the playoffs 6 consecutive seasons since he entered the league as a rookie. All first round exits. 6. Yes, while the same argument could be made that the team wasn't good enough around him, Matthews hasn't been good enough in the playoffs as of yet to be in the same conversation as MacKinnon. Auston is a minus player and not even at a point per game in the playoffs. Not to mention Matthews is invisible when it matters most, although he did improve in that regard last season. I also hate the Avs and Leafs equally as I am a Wings and Bolts fan, so I'm not "playing favorites".


Settle down bud, no one cares
Mar. 27, 2023 at 9:58 p.m.
#62
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Quoting: RipNasty
Settle down bud, no one cares


Im calm as can be. Well actually you clearly care, you just don't know what you're talking about. You're a clown. Have a good night
Mar. 27, 2023 at 10:40 p.m.
#63
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Quoting: dgibb10
He also has no idea what goes into these stats. Spouting these stats while at the same time questioning xGoals (which is what the defensive model is built on) shows his lack of knowledge


Where did I even mention expected goals? Once again, I ALREADY KNOW THAT HUGHES IS BETTER OFFENSIVELY, but not defensively. Go to xEVD and cadet. Peterson still clears in both. Not only that, but petterson has a higher xGAR and xWAR
Mar. 27, 2023 at 10:42 p.m.
#64
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Quoting: mokumboi
Yes, that is very much cherry picking. I cannot help but feel like you do not understand what that phrase means. And exactly none of those stats are objective. Most of them are not even individual stats.


Those are the broadest stats that show overall impact on the game. Cherry picking stats would be me using giveaways and shots on goal/60. What other stats do you want me to use? Those are the most common stats used to compare players. You’re telling me that WAR is a cherry picked stat? Get a grip
Mar. 27, 2023 at 10:43 p.m.
#65
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Quoting: mokumboi
I have made numerous arguments about both these players and about the inherently faulty measure you've used, but you just ignore or wildly misrepresent them. But whatever, man. If you want to believe that Hughes is much better than Heiskanen based on using one thoroughly subjective measure for a specified period of time, have at it. Just know that nobody is going to go along with it. Because duh.


What metrics show that Heiskanen has been better this year?
Mar. 27, 2023 at 10:52 p.m.
#66
I Love J Boqvist
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Quoting: Juiceman
Where did I even mention expected goals? Once again, I ALREADY KNOW THAT HUGHES IS BETTER OFFENSIVELY, but not defensively. Go to xEVD and cadet. Peterson still clears in both. Not only that, but petterson has a higher xGAR and xWAR


Quoting: Juiceman
Where did I even mention expected goals? Once again, I ALREADY KNOW THAT HUGHES IS BETTER OFFENSIVELY, but not defensively. Go to xEVD and cadet. Peterson still clears in both. Not only that, but petterson has a higher xGAR and xWAR


When you talk about could have should have would have and ignore the expected production offensively (where pettersson is getting incredibly lucky), meanwhile spouting evolving hockey as if it is gospel while having no understanding of how their model is built.

Hughes is SIGNIFICANTLY better offensively. but since evolving hockey's offensive models are based on actual goals (where pettersson is getting incredibly lucky, see Horvat and Kuzmenko unsustainable shooting % and goals above expected), where hughes has gotten unlucky (see eric haula and a large portion of devils shooting %s), the model looks at pettersson much more favourably than it should.

To quote evolving hockey themselves "we’ve chosen to use the GF RAPM for the basis of our offensive components. This means a certain amount of luck will be included in the results, and the amount of luck included here will likely be hard to determine."
and
"Especially given the amount of randomness and luck that occurs in the NHL, it’s very important that we not only rely on WAR (and its components) for analysis, but that we dig further when evaluating players. Additionally, we feel it is important to keep in mind the idea of WAR as an “estimate” – there are margins around a player’s final number. Fangraphs suggests a 1 Win +/- error around a given value within a season. It’s not clear where this notion comes from. The methods we used for constructing our model did not allow us to determine error estimates, and while additional research is required to lock this down, we feel a .5 Win +/- error range makes sense given the magnitude for hockey is roughly half that of baseball."
Mar. 27, 2023 at 11:34 p.m.
#67
mokumboi
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Quoting: Juiceman
What metrics show that Heiskanen has been better this year?


Dom's GSVA, for one (not that I'm a fan of his model, either).
Mar. 28, 2023 at 12:29 a.m.
#68
Rip
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Quoting: Stammer_Time91
Im calm as can be. Well actually you clearly care, you just don't know what you're talking about. You're a clown. Have a good night


Petty insults are a small man's game.
Mar. 28, 2023 at 8:22 a.m.
#69
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Quoting: RipNasty
Petty insults are a small man's game.


haha still going wow. your level of trolling is remarkable
Mar. 28, 2023 at 10:17 a.m.
#70
Rip
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Quoting: Stammer_Time91
haha still going wow. your level of trolling is remarkable


This is the world we live in eh? You come in blasting off with insults and somehow you are the one being trolled eh? The fragility of hockey bros is outstanding. "Don't accept my insults and other bs? Then you are the troll!" Hilarious. Poor little guy must feel really unimportant in your day to day eh? Good luck friend.
 
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