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What is Dubois Value Now based on Friedman

Created by: Howie
Team: 2022-23 Winnipeg Jets
Initial Creation Date: Mar. 27, 2023
Published: Mar. 27, 2023
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Description
This agm is to find a deal that works for both sides as with Dubois most likely going to mtl. Finding something may be hard so instead I outline the assets that make sense to make a deal work in terms of asset classes. These classes will be divided by picks, prospects and nhl/cap.

Hope that this is useful in making discussion so we can better understand how we each see it so a more connected way of a deal can be made. The last thing I like seeing is deals that obviously favor one side and are defended by the creator saying "no leverage".

Mtl needs to beat the rental offer so a random b prospect and a 2nd won't be enough on that front.

Thanks for reading and hope this was able to find a way to make a connected view.
Trades
1.
WPG
  1. 2023 1st round pick (FLA)
Additional Details:
Asset Class 1 Picks

Wildly considered the main asset that goes for Dubois with mtl already having a top 10 pick. The range of the pick could be from 14-20 but for this I'm assuming a middle ground of 17th overall. This would allow for a player with team control from a strong class to come up with the team. Pick would be match with a dach type move to help the team while fitting the timeline.

Jets would get this pick and hope someone drops but 2 mid teen picks would be desirable to a changing core.
MTL
  1. Dubois, Pierre-Luc
Additional Details:
*not actual trade
2.
WPG
  1. 2024 1st round pick (MTL)
Additional Details:
2024 1st round pick

This pick would most likely be moved in the case that a move at the draft doesn't work out. Protection would be on this pick most likely with top 10 making sense. This pick would be a counter to a 2023 first but comes at the risk of giving away a 2025 unprotected first depending on mtl performance.

Jets would likely prefer a 2023 first to avoid the wait on the pick and thus the process of changing the core.
MTL
3.
WPG
  1. Beck, Owen
  2. Kapanen, Oliver [Reserve List]
  3. Kidney, Riley
  4. Mailloux, Logan
  5. Mesar, Filip
  6. Roy, Joshua
Additional Details:
Asset class 2
Prospects

I included all the prospects that could be included in a deal some may be more more likely than others and one that would require only 1 prospect (roy)

Beck: young c that is probably a middle six guy that is just all around a good player
Kidney: young c that has shown qmjhl success and has more offensive playstyle buy also probably a middle sixer
Mailloux: young rhd that has size and a shot. Has controversy around him being able to play so may be a risk but fits the organizational needs better
Mesar: young winger that has offensive instincts and great offensive skill set probably middle six/2nd line guy
Roy: best guy that probably not included but here anyway as a way to demonstrate that the changing of prospects can affect how many assets are included
Kapanen: young center in liiga that has some offensive and probably a middle six to 3rd line c

Any other prospects could be included but not mentioned can be discussed in the comments to make sure that what I have here makes sense
MTL
4.
WPG
  1. Anderson, Josh
  2. Armia, Joel
  3. Dvorak, Christian
  4. Hoffman, Mike
Additional Details:
Asset Class 3
Nhl/cap

The nhl is a cap in cap out world so most likely some form of cap would be coming back to ensure mtl can afford him and not have an existing contract affect the teams future.

Armia: (2y 3.4m remaining) could be useful bottom six guy that he was before we traded him but may increase the return with many agms dumping with for assets
Dvorak: (2y 4.45m 8 team no trade list for those 2 years) could be a 2/3c for a couple years to replace Dubois and may be able to be flipped in the future for more assets
Hoffman (1y 4.5m) good scoring winger to help pp but would most likely be bottom six which is unideal for a guy like him (1 year would come off the books first)
Anderson:(4y 5.5m 8 team no trade list until final year 2026-2027 5 team no trade list) it honestly wouldn't be an Dubois mtl agm without him. He provides a physical role but most likely bottom six and expensive for that role.
MTL
5.
WPG
  1. 2023 7th round pick (MTL)
Additional Details:
My prediction here is based on 1 of the picks (here 2023 one) 2 of the prospects (kidney and mesar) and 1 nhl player (Dvorak)

This deal may not he exactly perfect but isn't the point but to create a way to figure out what makes sense for both sides.
MTL
    This is here for those that say to wait to ufa:
    This is the assumption that a trade is evident and most likely needs to beat the standard rental offer (1st prospect and other asset). So instead of saying that they wait respect that this is more to figure out what he's worth as a trade this offseason.

    You are entitled to you view but this is in no way saying a trade is going to happen but to figure out his new value based on the Friedman news.
    DraftRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7
    2023
    Logo of the WPG
    Logo of the FLA
    Logo of the WPG
    Logo of the WPG
    Logo of the NYR
    Logo of the WPG
    Logo of the MTL
    2024
    Logo of the WPG
    Logo of the MTL
    Logo of the WPG
    Logo of the WPG
    Logo of the WPG
    Logo of the WPG
    Logo of the WPG
    2025
    Logo of the WPG
    Logo of the WPG
    Logo of the WPG
    Logo of the WPG
    Logo of the WPG
    Logo of the WPG
    ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
    34$82,500,000$101,562,859$0$2,050,000-$19,062,859
    Left WingCentreRight Wing
    Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
    $7,142,857$7,142,857
    LW
    UFA - 4
    Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
    $6,125,000$6,125,000
    C
    M-NTC
    UFA - 2
    Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
    $8,250,000$8,250,000
    RW
    M-NTC, NMC
    UFA - 2
    Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
    $4,000,000$4,000,000
    LW, RW
    UFA - 2
    Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
    $6,000,000$6,000,000
    RW, LW
    M-NTC
    UFA - 3
    Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
    $1,250,000$1,250,000
    LW, RW, C
    M-NTC
    UFA - 1
    Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
    $3,250,000$3,250,000
    C
    M-NTC
    UFA - 4
    Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
    $2,166,667$2,166,667
    RW
    UFA - 3
    Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
    $925,000$925,000 (Performance Bonus$850,000$850K)
    LW, RW
    RFA - 1
    Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
    $750,000$750,000
    C, RW
    UFA - 1
    Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
    $825,000$825,000
    RW
    UFA - 1
    Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
    $775,000$775,000
    LW, C
    RFA - 2
    Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
    $916,667$916,667
    C
    RFA - 4
    Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
    $750,000$750,000
    RW, LW
    UFA - 1
    Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
    $750,000$750,000
    LW
    UFA - 1
    Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
    $859,167$859,167
    C
    RFA - 4
    Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
    $750,000$750,000
    RW, C
    UFA - 1
    Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
    $4,500,000$4,500,000
    LW
    UFA - 2
    Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
    $4,450,000$4,450,000
    C
    UFA - 3
    Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
    $950,000$950,000
    RW, C
    RFA - 4
    Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
    $856,667$856,667
    LW, RW
    RFA - 4
    Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
    $3,400,000$3,400,000
    RW, LW
    UFA - 3
    Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
    $5,500,000$5,500,000
    RW, LW
    M-NTC
    UFA - 5
    Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
    Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
    $6,250,000$6,250,000
    LD
    NMC
    UFA - 6
    Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
    $5,875,000$5,875,000
    RD
    UFA - 3
    Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
    $6,166,667$6,166,667
    G
    UFA - 2
    Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
    $5,950,000$5,950,000
    LD/RD
    M-NTC
    UFA - 3
    Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
    $3,000,000$3,000,000
    RD
    M-NTC
    UFA - 2
    Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
    $900,000$900,000
    G
    UFA - 1
    Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
    $897,500$897,500
    RD
    RFA - 4
    Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
    $3,900,000$3,900,000
    LD
    UFA - 2
    Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
    $925,000$925,000 (Performance Bonus$350,000$350K)
    LD
    RFA - 1
    Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
    $900,000$900,000
    LD
    RFA - 1
    Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
    $762,500$762,500
    LD
    RFA - 2
    ScratchesInjured Reserve (IR)Long Term IR (LTIR)
    Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
    $894,167$894,167 (Performance Bonus$850,000$850K)
    LW, C
    RFA - 2

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    Mar. 27, 2023 at 5:47 p.m.
    #1
    Jetsfan
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    Value hasnt changed.

    Either its a draft day sign and trade for a haul to MTL or a signing of a 1 year contract and trade him to any team for a one year rental.

    Either way he isnt playing on Winnipeg next year
    Mar. 27, 2023 at 5:49 p.m.
    #2
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    Quoting: Jetman
    Value hasnt changed.

    Either its a draft day sign and trade for a haul to MTL or a signing of a 1 year contract and trade him to any team for a one year rental.

    Either way he isnt playing on Winnipeg next year


    His value has changed as the likelihood of another team trading for him for a high price based on extending is now not an option. Best case is mtl beating the rental price. The elimination of that option leaves rental, mtl or self rental.
    Mar. 27, 2023 at 5:51 p.m.
    #3
    You know nothing JS
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    "Mtl needs to beat the rental offer".

    You could had stop there.
    Mar. 27, 2023 at 5:53 p.m.
    #4
    Hop on the Slaftrain
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    Very well detailed. I also proposed something along those lines earlier today - which was 2023 FLA 1st, a 2nd tier prospect with the names you have above and a roster player (if Winnipeg wants as long as MTL doesn't have to pay an extra ex. Hoffman). The roster player is not mandatory since MTL can afford Dubois without sending cap.
    Howie liked this.
    Mar. 27, 2023 at 5:55 p.m.
    #5
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    Quoting: jpsnow13
    "Mtl needs to beat the rental offer".

    You could had stop there.


    It was more to outline it as a whole rather than a simple sentence which can be interpreted differently. I wanted to make this overview so people that don't know the whole situation can see it and learn something. Just the statement of beating the rental offer may explain it buy going into depth avoids confusion.
    Mar. 27, 2023 at 5:56 p.m.
    #6
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    Quoting: SevenLeg
    Very well detailed. I also proposed something along those lines earlier today - which was 2023 FLA 1st, a 2nd tier prospect with the names you have above and a roster player (if Winnipeg wants as long as MTL doesn't have to pay an extra ex. Hoffman). The roster player is not mandatory since MTL can afford Dubois without sending cap.


    Yeah like my deal that I've attached to is: 2023 Florida first kidney Mailloux and Dvorak for Dubois and vesalainen. Haven't got the best feedback but I still feel like it presents positives for each side.
    Mar. 27, 2023 at 5:59 p.m.
    #7
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    This is a great breakdown of the options, extremely well done. WPG seems to be headed toward a retool with the likes of Wheeler and Scheifele on the other side of 30 and expiring after next year. I could see them looking for futures more than NHLers now, so one of Dvorak and Hoffman for cap might fit better than Anderson. They are definitely bidding against teams that would be looking to add PLD as a rental, and those teams may be looking to flip his rights to MTL next offseason to recoup some assets (maybe a 5th or 6th for the extra year on a deal), so they may be willing to add that little bit extra now to get it done.

    I think your prediction is about right: a 2023 1st, 2 prospects, and probably Dvorak.
    Howie liked this.
    Mar. 27, 2023 at 6:03 p.m.
    #8
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    Quoting: CaseyFlyman
    This is a great breakdown of the options, extremely well done. WPG seems to be headed toward a retool with the likes of Wheeler and Scheifele on the other side of 30 and expiring after next year. I could see them looking for futures more than NHLers now, so one of Dvorak and Hoffman for cap might fit better than Anderson. They are definitely bidding against teams that would be looking to add PLD as a rental, and those teams may be looking to flip his rights to MTL next offseason to recoup some assets (maybe a 5th or 6th for the extra year on a deal), so they may be willing to add that little bit extra now to get it done.

    I think your prediction is about right: a 2023 1st, 2 prospects, and probably Dvorak.


    Yeah I like Dvorak the most to just play and don't worry about the term as he can just be used for more assets. I definitely could have included more potential prospects but me explaining every mtl prospect when I'm not a fan to begin with seemed extra. I may be optimistic on the deal I suggested but I may be undervalued it too just knowing winnipeg can't have nice things lol.
    CaseyFlyman liked this.
    Mar. 27, 2023 at 6:14 p.m.
    #9
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    thoughts on Kuzy for PLD? It would require WPG to still be going for it but they would be getting 2 years with him instead of 1. Obviously depends on WPG not being on his no trade list too
    Mar. 27, 2023 at 6:28 p.m.
    #10
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    Quoting: qc14
    thoughts on Kuzy for PLD? It would require WPG to still be going for it but they would be getting 2 years with him instead of 1. Obviously depends on WPG not being on his no trade list too


    Definitely a no go Kuznetsov does nothing for use and we need the assets from Dubois to help the retool. Just not a fit and probably blocks the trade with the trade protection
    Mar. 27, 2023 at 6:47 p.m.
    #11
    You know nothing JS
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    Quoting: Howie
    It was more to outline it as a whole rather than a simple sentence which can be interpreted differently. I wanted to make this overview so people that don't know the whole situation can see it and learn something. Just the statement of beating the rental offer may explain it buy going into depth avoids confusion.


    That's the point. No depth needed. The logic stops at MTL will never beat PLD rental market value.

    It's as simple as:

    Rental market for PLD for one playoff run > Habs offer for an additionnal season in a rebuilding year

    Friedman reporting teams touched base on the value of a Habs offer doesnt changes anything. WPG probably just want to know where to start negociations elsewhere with it.

    That's the "whole situation". Projecting a suffucient MTL offer is what creates "confusion". It's a loose-loose deal.
    habitantlecolon liked this.
    Mar. 27, 2023 at 6:55 p.m.
    #12
    Le patriote
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    Quoting: jpsnow13
    "Mtl needs to beat the rental offer".



    For me habs need to beat the Offer Sheet price (1st+3rd). So less than what Jets fans are looking for the «rental offer»!! They don't have any leverage left.
    Mar. 27, 2023 at 6:58 p.m.
    #13
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    Quoting: habitantlecolon
    For me habs need to beat the Offer Sheet price (1st+3rd). So less than what Jets fans are looking for the «rental offer»!! They don't have any leverage left.


    Yeah but an os value is a unprotected 2024 first what would rather trade?
    2023 first (17th overall) kidney kapanen and Dvorak
    2024 (unprotected could be 1st ovr) and 2024 3rd (early to mid 70s)
    Mar. 27, 2023 at 7:04 p.m.
    #14
    Jeff Gorton
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    Quoting: habitantlecolon
    For me habs need to beat the Offer Sheet price (1st+3rd). So less than what Jets fans are looking for the «rental offer»!! They don't have any leverage left.


    habs could offer sheet at 4m (2nd round pick) for 1 year and screw the Jets. cause either they match it and cant trade him for a year or they lose him for a 2nd rounder
    Mar. 27, 2023 at 7:06 p.m.
    #15
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    Quoting: JeffGorton
    habs could offer sheet at 4m (2nd round pick) for 1 year and screw the Jets. cause either they match it and cant trade him for a year or they lose him for a 2nd rounder


    He needs to accept the os and can't be below the qo of 6m which is a minimum 1st and 3rd. It's an idea just doesn't work in reality
    Mar. 27, 2023 at 7:06 p.m.
    #16
    I Love J Boqvist
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    Very optimistic about the valuations of every single prospect.
    Mar. 27, 2023 at 7:07 p.m.
    #17
    Le patriote
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    Quoting: Howie
    Yeah but an os value is a unprotected 2024 first what would rather trade?
    2023 first (17th overall) kidney kapanen and Dvorak
    2024 (unprotected could be 1st ovr) and 2024 3rd (early to mid 70s)


    As th offer sheet state 1st 3rd from next year, if habs add the unprotection can be lifted. So my Mailloux Dvorak Ylonen 2025 CGY 1st is an higher bid than a 1st + 3rd. a 1st, a former 1st, an active nhler and a C prospect. Not that bad as a return.
    Mar. 27, 2023 at 7:07 p.m.
    #18
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    Quoting: JeffGorton
    habs could offer sheet at 4m (2nd round pick) for 1 year and screw the Jets. cause either they match it and cant trade him for a year or they lose him for a 2nd rounder


    I don't think that we will pull the thrigger but yeah this could really well be it!
    Mar. 27, 2023 at 7:07 p.m.
    #19
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    Quoting: habitantlecolon
    As th offer sheet state 1st 3rd from next year, if habs add the unprotection can be lifted. So my Mailloux Dvorak Ylonen 2025 CGY 1st is an higher bid than a 1st + 3rd. a 1st, a former 1st, an active nhler and a C prospect. Not that bad as a return.


    Jets would want the 2023 first as a minimum
    Mar. 27, 2023 at 7:08 p.m.
    #20
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    Quoting: habitantlecolon
    As th offer sheet state 1st 3rd from next year, if habs add the unprotection can be lifted. So my Mailloux Dvorak Ylonen 2025 CGY 1st is an higher bid than a 1st + 3rd. a 1st, a former 1st, an active nhler and a C prospect. Not that bad as a return.


    You can't make an os with protection my guy lol
    Mar. 27, 2023 at 7:10 p.m.
    #21
    Le patriote
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    Quoting: Howie
    Jets would want the 2023 first as a minimum


    You are not in situation of power to have any decision leverage. So it will be the year Habs decide. No other team will mess with that even for a rental. Jets have no longer leverage of any kind. If they would have liked such deal they have done it prior to tdl ...
    Mar. 27, 2023 at 7:11 p.m.
    #22
    Le patriote
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    Quoting: Howie
    You can't make an os with protection my guy lol


    i'm not saying that i'm doing an OS, i'm talking about the price ... using 1st + 3rd of OS to show you that the value is way less that what you guys think it is.
    Mar. 27, 2023 at 7:14 p.m.
    #23
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    Quoting: habitantlecolon
    i'm not saying that i'm doing an OS, i'm talking about the price ... using 1st + 3rd of OS to show you that the value is way less that what you guys think it is.


    But the os has the condition of no protection which makes it the most valuable thing they can get for a retool.
    Mar. 27, 2023 at 7:19 p.m.
    #24
    Le patriote
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    Quoting: Howie
    But the os has the condition of no protection which makes it the most valuable thing they can get for a retool.


    yep, but i'm doing a better offer too.
    Mar. 27, 2023 at 7:24 p.m.
    #25
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    Quoting: habitantlecolon
    yep, but i'm doing a better offer too.


    How is that offer better lol I'd rather you guys os him as we basically get a guaranteed top 10 pick with no conditions. How is getting a pick 2 drafts later with conditions, Mailloux who has risks, ylonen who would see his value diminish and Dvorak who sure gives us a c back but ultimately isn't a need. Can you please explain how the deal is better than an os. We don't take on cap and get the best pick possible so that's kinda hard to beat.
     
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