SalarySwishSalarySwish
Forums/Armchair-GM

The cost of Dubois

Created by: Shanesaw9
Team: 2023-24 Montreal Canadiens
Initial Creation Date: Mar. 28, 2023
Published: Mar. 29, 2023
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Description
https://montrealhockeynow.com/2023/03/28/montreal-canadiens-possible-canadiens-negotiation-tactic-to-pry-pierre-luc-dubois-from-jets/

If Hughes is willing to offersheet Dubois, the cost would only be a 1st and 3rd round pick (or literally nothing in 2024 if the Jets match the offer sheet). This sets the floor for Dubois' value on the trade market.

There are a couple trade comparisons from last season that allow us to gauge what a fair offer for Dubois looks like (something better than the offersheet).

1. Chychrun
- Arizona did not have a lot of leverage when trading Chychrun because they weren't willing to take back any salary (poverty franchise) and their unreasonable asking price drove potential suitors into making other deals until the market dried up. This lack of leverage is a similar situation to the one the Jets find themselves in (actually the Jets are in a worse situation because Chychrun still had 2 years left and didn't isolate the marker to a specific team like Dubois has). The return for Chychrun will be a 1st, and two 2nds.

2. Horvat
- Since MTL could acquire Dubois for nothing in 2024, they are essentially trading for an extra year of Dubois, in other words they are paying the cost of a rental. Horvat is a good comparison as NYI acquired him as a rental and signed him long term (which is what MTL would do with Dubois). The return for Horvat was Beauvillier, Raty, and a 1st round pick.

Given these two offers, I believe an offer of FLA's 2023 1st round pick (assuming it is in the 12 - 16 range), Dvorak, and a B prospect or lower value roster player / pick is the cost of Dubois.

I chose Edmundson as the additional piece for a few reasons:
- Manitoba guy
- Playoff experienced D man with size, carries value around the league (despite coming off a tough season).
- Expendable to MTL with a surplus of young D, possible fit for WPG with Stanley reportedly asking for a trade.
Free Agent Signings
RESERVE LISTYEARSCAP HIT
3$775,000
RFAYEARSCAP HIT
8$8,000,000
8$8,000,000
1$2,900,000
2$775,000
1$775,000
1$775,000
1$775,000
UFAYEARSCAP HIT
1$775,000
1$775,000
1$1,750,000
Trades
MTL
  1. Dubois, Pierre-Luc [RFA Rights]
WPG
  1. Dvorak, Christian
  2. Edmundson, Joel
  3. 2023 1st round pick (FLA)
Buyouts
DraftRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7
2023
Logo of the MTL
Logo of the MTL
Logo of the MTL
Logo of the MTL
Logo of the PIT
Logo of the VGK
Logo of the MTL
Logo of the CGY
Logo of the MTL
Logo of the MTL
2024
Logo of the MTL
Logo of the COL
Logo of the MTL
Logo of the MTL
Logo of the MTL
Logo of the SJS
Logo of the MTL
Logo of the MTL
Logo of the EDM
2025
Logo of the MTL
Logo of the CGY
Logo of the MTL
Logo of the MTL
Logo of the MTL
Logo of the MTL
Logo of the MTL
Logo of the MTL
ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
23$83,500,000$74,224,166$1,170,000$695,000$9,275,834

Roster

Left WingCentreRight Wing
Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
$8,000,000$8,000,000
LW, RW
UFA - 8
Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
$7,875,000$7,875,000
C
UFA - 7
Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
$3,400,000$3,400,000
RW, LW
UFA - 2
Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
$4,500,000$4,500,000
LW
UFA - 1
$8,000,000$8,000,000
C
UFA - 8
Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
$2,900,000$2,900,000
RW, LW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
$1,750,000$1,750,000
LW, RW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
$3,362,500$3,362,500
C, RW
RFA - 3
Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
$775,000$775,000
LW, RW
RFA - 2
Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
$1,700,000$1,700,000
C
UFA - 2
Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
$5,500,000$5,500,000
RW, LW
M-NTC
UFA - 4
Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
$6,500,000$6,500,000
RW, LW
M-NTC, NMC
UFA - 4
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
$4,875,000$4,875,000
LD
M-NTC
UFA - 3
Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
$3,500,000$3,500,000
RD
UFA - 2
Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
$1,000,000$1,000,000
G
UFA - 1
Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
$863,333$863,333 (Performance Bonus$420,000$420K)
LD/RD
RFA - 2
Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
$1,400,000$1,400,000
LD/RD
RFA - 2
Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
$1,925,000$1,925,000
G
M-NTC
UFA - 2
Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
$925,000$925,000 (Performance Bonus$275,000$275K)
RD
RFA - 1
Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
$828,333$828,333
LD/RD
RFA - 1
ScratchesInjured Reserve (IR)Long Term IR (LTIR)
Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
$1,100,000$1,100,000
LW, RW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
$10,500,000$10,500,000
G
NMC
UFA - 3
Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
$775,000$775,000
LW, RW
UFA - 2
Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
$766,667$766,667
RD
UFA - 2
Taxi Squad
Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
$918,333$918,333 ($0$0$0$0)
RW, C
RFA - 3
Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
$885,000$885,000 ($0$0$0$0) (Performance Bonus$80,000$80K)
C
RFA - 3

Embed Code

  • To display this team on another website or blog, add this iFrame to the appropriate page
  • Customize the height attribute in the iFrame code below to fit your website appropriately. Minimum recommended: 400px.

Text-Embed

Click to Highlight
Mar. 29, 2023 at 1:23 p.m.
#1
Subbanator
Avatar of the user
Joined: Jul. 2017
Posts: 7,184
Likes: 3,226
The Jets are heading into an interesting off season, they can take the road they should take and sell off aiming to acquire prospects and picks or they can head down this road and stay in mediocrity.

Either way it's more likely a prospect is involved in any PLD trade then having two veteran roster players being moved for him
Andy_Dick liked this.
Mar. 29, 2023 at 1:33 p.m.
#2
Leaf Fan Joke Here
Avatar of the user
Joined: Oct. 2020
Posts: 335
Likes: 106
Ayo...Armia on the top line??? Did I switch into a different dimension overnight?
Fergy22 liked this.
Mar. 29, 2023 at 1:37 p.m.
#3
Avatar of the user
Joined: Jul. 2020
Posts: 15,607
Likes: 6,912
The Jets haveno reason to accept less than PLD gets as a rental and Edmundson has negative value to the Jets.
Mar. 29, 2023 at 1:37 p.m.
#4
Thread Starter
Habs 2010
Avatar of the user
Joined: May 2020
Posts: 1,501
Likes: 930
Edited Mar. 29, 2023 at 1:46 p.m.
Quoting: Subbanator7667
The Jets are heading into an interesting off season, they can take the road they should take and sell off aiming to acquire prospects and picks or they can head down this road and stay in mediocrity.

Either way it's more likely a prospect is involved in any PLD trade then having two veteran roster players being moved for him


That would be the 12-16 overall pick. That is the core piece in this deal.

Alternative trade:
FLA 2023 1st Round Pick
COL 2024 2nd Round Pick
Ylonen

The offer with the vets is probably better.
Mar. 29, 2023 at 1:44 p.m.
#5
Thread Starter
Habs 2010
Avatar of the user
Joined: May 2020
Posts: 1,501
Likes: 930
Edited Mar. 29, 2023 at 1:55 p.m.
Quoting: HabsAreSus
Ayo...Armia on the top line??? Did I switch into a different dimension overnight?


All Suzuki and Caufield really need is some big plug to win some puck battles who is decent defensively - doesn't really matter who it is.

I like Dach with Dubois, Anderson with Drouin, Gallagher with Evans. Bunch of wildcards like Slafkovsky, 2023 top pick, etc. but Armia could get showcased here... has had success with Suzuki in the past (Suzuki had the best GF% with Armia as his linemate in 2020-21 and I think Caufield-Suzuki-Armia also put up good GF% relative to teammates in 2021-22).

If it gets Armia's value back up so they can trade him that alone is worth it. Main point is, a spot on the top line is up for grabs.
Mar. 29, 2023 at 1:44 p.m.
#6
Tony Ferguson Fan
Avatar of the user
Joined: May 2022
Posts: 547
Likes: 348
Edit: I said something stupid but idk how to delete my comment
Mar. 29, 2023 at 2:02 p.m.
#7
Thread Starter
Habs 2010
Avatar of the user
Joined: May 2020
Posts: 1,501
Likes: 930
Quoting: Windjammer
The Jets haveno reason to accept less than PLD gets as a rental and Edmundson has negative value to the Jets.


I referenced an article and added 6 paragraphs of my own thoughts explaining how I believe this is a fair offer.

Your rebuttal is a 21 word sentence with no analysis in which you combined the words "have" and "no" to form a brand new word. Thank you for your contribution to the discussion.
Mar. 29, 2023 at 2:07 p.m.
#8
I Love J Boqvist
Avatar of the user
Joined: Jan. 2023
Posts: 11,131
Likes: 2,892
Beauvillier>>>Dvorak
Raty would be closer to one of the habs top few prospects

using horvat comparable gets Farrell/Beck as comparable to raty
tsyls liked this.
Mar. 29, 2023 at 2:08 p.m.
#9
Avatar of the user
Joined: Jul. 2020
Posts: 15,607
Likes: 6,912
Edited Mar. 29, 2023 at 2:14 p.m.
Quoting: Shanesaw9
I referenced an article and added 6 paragraphs of my own thoughts explaining how I believe this is a fair offer.

Your rebuttal is a 21 word sentence with no analysis in which you combined the words "have" and "no" to form a brand new word. Thank you for your contribution to the discussion.


Cool. But no reasoning and no logic in your 6 paragraphs doesn't mean a whole lot when Montreal has no leverage to force Winnipeg to take less than a rental return.

If the Jets think PLD has been a good soldier and want to do him a solid and trade him where he wants to to they may take a little less to do him a favour. However, it won't be markedly less or include whatis essentially a cap dump coming back. They'd just move him elsewhere. Problem solved.

Plainly put this offer has less value than your OS scenario, so the Jets would just take Montreal's unprotected 24 1st from the OS in the unlikely event this is the best offer out there.
Mar. 29, 2023 at 2:10 p.m.
#10
Avatar of the user
Joined: Oct. 2022
Posts: 361
Likes: 183
Trading anything for Dubois is ridiculous.

This team is still not a playoff contender in the east for 2023-24.

So giving up assets to have Dubois now, AND burn a year off his contract with another lackluster season, doesn't make much sense.

Drouin is awful and Hughes should be fired if he considers re-signing him AND playing him at C, Dvorak is a better keep at 3C.

Moving that Florida pick would be a bad idea, especially with Sandin-pellikka or Wood projected around there, keep the pick, stock the system, sign Dubois in FA, then figure out the goaltending situation.
Andy_Dick liked this.
Mar. 29, 2023 at 2:15 p.m.
#11
Thread Starter
Habs 2010
Avatar of the user
Joined: May 2020
Posts: 1,501
Likes: 930
Quoting: dgibb10
Beauvillier>>>Dvorak
Raty would be closer to one of the habs top few prospects

using horvat comparable gets Farrell/Beck as comparable to raty


How so?

Dvorak: 27 yr old C , 2 years left @$4.45M
- Career PPG: 0.491

Beauvillier: 25 yr old W, 1 year left @$4.15M
- Career PPG: 0.457

So Dvorak is slightly more productive, plays a position of higher value (can also play wing), and offers more team control with a 2 year term vs 1 year. I'd say they are almost perfect comparisons... please elaborate on why you feel Beauvillier is ">>>" Dvorak.
Andy_Dick liked this.
Mar. 29, 2023 at 2:24 p.m.
#12
I Love J Boqvist
Avatar of the user
Joined: Jan. 2023
Posts: 11,131
Likes: 2,892
Quoting: Shanesaw9
How so?

Dvorak: 27 yr old C , 2 years left $4.45M
- Career PPG: 0.491

Beauvillier: 25 yr old W, 1 year left $4.15M
- Career PPG: 0.457

So Dvorak is slightly more productive, plays a position of higher value (can also play wing), and offers more team control with a 2 year term vs 1 year. I'd say they are almost perfect comparisons... please elaborate on why you feel Beauvillier is ">>>" Dvorak.


bc dvorak just had a knee surgery, has a M-NTC that starts making him harder to move, is worse defensively, is due 5.75 mill a year in real dollars, and is older. At his contract I view that term as a -ve not a +ve
Mar. 29, 2023 at 2:36 p.m.
#13
Avatar of the user
Joined: Jun. 2018
Posts: 1,252
Likes: 282
so yougive them Beck and flo picks and mailloux but only if you are allowed to spoeak to Pld and find out how much money he is looking for and you sign him if you cant sign him right awy then i would just wait a year so that you dont give dubois all the leverage.. if he asked t\for too much then you just walk away and you have lost nothing..without a signing dubois will get you much less and then i am not giving up mailloux in the deal
Mar. 29, 2023 at 2:38 p.m.
#14
Avatar of the user
Joined: Feb. 2022
Posts: 4,912
Likes: 2,274
Quoting: OilersRule
Trading anything for Dubois is ridiculous.

This team is still not a playoff contender in the east for 2023-24.

So giving up assets to have Dubois now, AND burn a year off his contract with another lackluster season, doesn't make much sense.

Drouin is awful and Hughes should be fired if he considers re-signing him AND playing him at C, Dvorak is a better keep at 3C.

Moving that Florida pick would be a bad idea, especially with Sandin-pellikka or Wood projected around there, keep the pick, stock the system, sign Dubois in FA, then figure out the goaltending situation.



What no one talks about if if they trade for him the Habs lose leverage in negotiations and pld can ask for whatever dollar figure he wants.

It makes a lot more sense in a rebuild to go without the quick fix and if he really wants to go to Montreal then sign a reasonable deal as a free agent.

Giving up the Florida pick isn’t needed.

Chevy can trade Pld for a late 1st and mid prospect at the deadline. Habs won’t care as they don’t need Dubois with so much depth down the middle for the future and an option at signing him as a free agent.

They sign him, great, otherwise they are well on track to be competitive in 3 years

It makes no sense blowing up the rebuild. But Jets fans that think he’s worth this massive package including A prospects and a top15 pick aren’t thinking about compromise and have no clue about leverage dynamics
Shanesaw9 and OilersRule liked this.
Mar. 29, 2023 at 2:53 p.m.
#15
Thread Starter
Habs 2010
Avatar of the user
Joined: May 2020
Posts: 1,501
Likes: 930
Quoting: OilersRule
Trading anything for Dubois is ridiculous.

This team is still not a playoff contender in the east for 2023-24.

So giving up assets to have Dubois now, AND burn a year off his contract with another lackluster season, doesn't make much sense.

Drouin is awful and Hughes should be fired if he considers re-signing him AND playing him at C, Dvorak is a better keep at 3C.

Moving that Florida pick would be a bad idea, especially with Sandin-pellikka or Wood projected around there, keep the pick, stock the system, sign Dubois in FA, then figure out the goaltending situation.


You're probably right, ultimately it might come down to a draft day decision, who is available at the FLA pick and does MTL want Dubois a year early or should they just use the pick?
Mar. 29, 2023 at 5:38 p.m.
#16
Avatar of the user
Joined: Jul. 2019
Posts: 588
Likes: 177
Hughes isnt going to offersheet PLD because what if wpg matches. Then PLD has lost all leverage AND hughes has those draft picks tied up until WPG matches,
So thats not the bottom of that trade. PLD has leverage because he's going to walk to UFA. But WPG can move him to another team before then as he doesn't have any trade protections, and recoup legit assets for at least a full season of service.
A first + A prospect would probably the ask for PLD at the start of a season.
Mar. 29, 2023 at 7:39 p.m.
#17
Thread Starter
Habs 2010
Avatar of the user
Joined: May 2020
Posts: 1,501
Likes: 930
Quoting: slater417
Hughes isnt going to offersheet PLD because what if wpg matches. Then PLD has lost all leverage AND hughes has those draft picks tied up until WPG matches,
So thats not the bottom of that trade. PLD has leverage because he's going to walk to UFA. But WPG can move him to another team before then as he doesn't have any trade protections, and recoup legit assets for at least a full season of service.
A first + A prospect would probably the ask for PLD at the start of a season.


If WPG matches an offersheet of 1 yr × $6.4M then they lose Dubois for nothing in 2024 as a free agent. As per the CBA they can't trade him for a year.
Andy_Dick liked this.
Mar. 29, 2023 at 8:00 p.m.
#18
Avatar of the user
Joined: Feb. 2022
Posts: 4,912
Likes: 2,274
Quoting: Shanesaw9
If WPG matches an offersheet of 1 yr × $6.4M then they lose Dubois for nothing in 2024 as a free agent. As per the CBA they can't trade him for a year.


Just offer sheet him at 4.1 million. PLD understands he'll be paid later. Let Winnipeg match, not able to trade for a year and get nothing (obviously its kinda sketch and bettman wouldnt be happy but it shows the position the jets are in and how oblivious these jets homers are atm) These homers are dumb asking for these bounties. It would be hilarious to see leverage used here.
Mar. 29, 2023 at 8:47 p.m.
#19
Thread Starter
Habs 2010
Avatar of the user
Joined: May 2020
Posts: 1,501
Likes: 930
Quoting: Koskinen_The_Great
Just offer sheet him at 4.1 million. PLD understands he'll be paid later. Let Winnipeg match, not able to trade for a year and get nothing (obviously its kinda sketch and bettman wouldnt be happy but it shows the position the jets are in and how oblivious these jets homers are atm) These homers are dumb asking for these bounties. It would be hilarious to see leverage used here.


PLD would never agree to that, if he is to sign an offersheet it would be with the hope and intent that WPG does not match so he is free to play with MTL. WPG matches $4.1M all day, but @ $6.4M there is a legitimate chance WPG takes the 1st and 3rd round pick and moves on.
Mar. 29, 2023 at 8:52 p.m.
#20
I Love J Boqvist
Avatar of the user
Joined: Jan. 2023
Posts: 11,131
Likes: 2,892
Quoting: Shanesaw9
PLD would never agree to that, if he is to sign an offersheet it would be with the hope and intent that WPG does not match so he is free to play with MTL. WPG matches $4.1M all day, but $6.4M there is a legitimate chance WPG takes the 1st and 3rd round pick and moves on.


If you really want to go the offer sheet route and ensure PLD signs it make it 8.4 for 1 year. Extra 2nd, not a chance they match and the habs aren't gonna be near the cap next year regardless.
Mar. 29, 2023 at 8:53 p.m.
#21
Avatar of the user
Joined: Feb. 2022
Posts: 4,912
Likes: 2,274
Quoting: dgibb10
If you really want to go the offer sheet route and ensure PLD signs it make it 8.4 for 1 year. Extra 2nd, not a chance they match and the habs aren't gonna be near the cap next year regardless.


PLEASE GOD OFFER SHEET. The hilarity would be entertaining. We agree on something. My Gawd
 
Reply
To create a post please Login or Register
Question:
Options:
Add Option
Submit Poll