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How Winnipeg should respond if Montreal decides to offersheet PLD

Created by: sensonfire
Team: 2023-24 Winnipeg Jets
Initial Creation Date: Mar. 30, 2023
Published: Mar. 30, 2023
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Description
1. Montreal can initiate an offersheet for PLD on Tuesday July 4th at 5:00PM.

July 4th is the Tuesday following the 2023 NHL draft and is later than June 26th.

Winnipeg can always trade PLD to another team as a rental before July 4th.

Or acquire Montreal's 2024 2nd from Arizona.




2. If the offersheet from Montreal has an AAV greater than 4.2 million, Winnipeg should not match it.

Winnipeg will then receive at least one 1st round pick in compensation.

Montreal's 1st last year was #1 overall and it is going to be in the Top 6 this year.

Getting a potentially Top 6 pick for 2024 because Montreal was dumb enough to offersheet PLD should make Winnipeg feel pretty good.





3. If the offersheet from Montreal has an AAV of 4.2 million or less, Winnipeg should match it and treat PLD as a rental with a NTC.

Winnipeg should then do what they can to build up the roster to go on a playoff run next year.

Given that Wheeler, Scheifele, Niederrieter, Dillon, DeMelo and Hellebuyck will all be UFAs.

I would also recommend doing so without spending any picks from the first three rounds of the draft to keep all options for an offersheet open.

However, this would require PLD to take a pay cut of at least 1.8 million for one year.

So, the risk that PLD would sign an offersheet in this case is rather low.




4. I would also recommend making a trade with Nashville to get back Winnipeg's 2024 2nd.

The point of this would be to leave all options open for an offersheet against Montreal.




5. Once the nightmare of a PLD offersheet from Montreal is over, Winnipeg can then respond with an offersheet of their own against any of Montreal's RFAs, as long as they are eligible.

I provide a list of them below.
Free Agent Signings
RFAYEARSCAP HIT
1$4,200,000
Trades
1.
WPG
  1. 2024 2nd round pick (WPG)
NSH
  1. Niederreiter, Nino
  2. 2024 4th round pick (WPG)
Additional Details:
Nashville should view this trade as getting a free 4th round pick.


Whether this trade works or is good value for either team is beside the point.



The point is to get back that 2024 2nd round pick, so Winnipeg can leave all options open for an offersheet against Montreal.
2.
WPG
  1. Caufield, Cole [RFA Rights]
  2. Gurianov, Denis [RFA Rights]
  3. Harvey-Pinard, Rafaël [RFA Rights]
  4. Ylönen, Jesse [RFA Rights]
MTL
    This is who Winnipeg can offer-sheet from Montreal for the 2023 off-season.
    3.
    MTL
      This is who Winnipeg can offer-sheet from Montreal for the 2024 off-season.
      4.
      MTL
        This is who Winnipeg can offer-sheet from Montreal for the 2025 off-season.
        5.
        MTL
          This is who Winnipeg can offer-sheet from Montreal for the 2026 off-season.
          6.
          WPG
          MTL
            https://montrealhockeynow.com/2023/03/28/montreal-canadiens-possible-canadiens-negotiation-tactic-to-pry-pierre-luc-dubois-from-jets/
            7.
            WPG
            1. 2024 2nd round pick (MTL)
            DraftRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7
            2023
            Logo of the WPG
            Logo of the WPG
            Logo of the WPG
            Logo of the NYR
            Logo of the WPG
            2024
            Logo of the WPG
            Logo of the WPG
            Logo of the MTL
            Logo of the WPG
            Logo of the WPG
            Logo of the WPG
            Logo of the WPG
            2025
            Logo of the WPG
            Logo of the WPG
            Logo of the WPG
            Logo of the WPG
            Logo of the WPG
            Logo of the WPG
            ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
            16$82,500,000$63,257,858$0$1,150,000$19,242,142
            Left WingCentreRight Wing
            Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
            $7,142,857$7,142,857
            LW
            UFA - 3
            Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
            $6,125,000$6,125,000
            C
            NMC
            UFA - 1
            Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
            $800,000$800,000 (Performance Bonus$300,000$300K)
            RW
            NTC
            UFA - 1
            Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
            $894,167$894,167 (Performance Bonus$850,000$850K)
            LW, C
            RFA - 1
            Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
            $4,200,000$4,200,000
            C
            UFA - 8
            Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
            $6,000,000$6,000,000
            RW, LW
            M-NTC
            UFA - 2
            Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
            $775,000$775,000
            LW, C
            RFA - 1
            Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
            $3,250,000$3,250,000
            C
            M-NTC
            UFA - 3
            Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
            $2,166,667$2,166,667
            RW
            UFA - 2
            Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
            Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
            $6,250,000$6,250,000
            LD
            NMC
            UFA - 5
            Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
            $3,000,000$3,000,000
            RD
            M-NTC
            UFA - 1
            Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
            $6,166,667$6,166,667
            G
            NMC
            UFA - 1
            Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
            $3,900,000$3,900,000
            LD
            UFA - 1
            Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
            $5,875,000$5,875,000
            RD
            M-NTC
            UFA - 2
            Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
            $5,950,000$5,950,000
            LD/RD
            M-NTC
            UFA - 2
            Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
            $762,500$762,500
            LD
            UFA - 1
            ScratchesInjured Reserve (IR)Long Term IR (LTIR)
            Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
            $3,362,500$3,362,500
            C, RW
            RFA - 3
            Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
            $1,400,000$1,400,000
            LD/RD
            RFA - 2
            Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
            $918,333$918,333
            RW, C
            RFA - 4
            Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
            $950,000$950,000 (Performance Bonus$3,500,000$4M)
            RW, LW
            RFA - 2
            Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
            $925,000$925,000 (Performance Bonus$275,000$275K)
            RD
            RFA - 1
            Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
            $885,000$885,000
            C
            RFA - 4
            Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
            $863,333$863,333 (Performance Bonus$420,000$420K)
            LD/RD
            RFA - 2
            Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
            $828,333$828,333
            LD/RD
            RFA - 1

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            Mar. 30, 2023 at 12:13 p.m.
            #26
            MisstheWhalers
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            Quoting: sensonfire
            This post has many problems:



            1. I specifically said the following:

            "However, this would require PLD to take a pay cut of at least 1.8 million for one year.

            So, the risk that PLD would sign an offersheet in this case is rather low."



            2. There are some that think Montreal is not done with offer-sheets.

            Some Habs ACGMs on Capfriendly recently have been about offersheeting PLD.

            And Marc D'Amico wrote a whole article about it.

            https://montrealhockeynow.com/2023/03/28/montreal-canadiens-possible-canadiens-negotiation-tactic-to-pry-pierre-luc-dubois-from-jets/



            3. Because if Winnipeg does not respond, then it sets a bad precedent.

            Any team could then poach their best players with an offersheet and be left unpunished.

            It's why Carolina offersheeted Kotkaniemi.



            4. Why would Montreal trade multiple assets for Dubois when they can sign him for free next year?

            Also, players who had their offer-sheet matched can't be traded for 1 full year.


            1. Sure
            2. Some blogger or Podcaster thinking "this is what the Habs should do to get PLD at the lowest cost" means absolutely NOTHING.
            3. Carolina offersheeted Kotkaniemi out of pure pettiness and Montreal got used by Aho&agent to get what they wanted, hopefully the Kotkaniemi contract works out for the Canes.
            4. Cause those assets might never amount to anything, they know what PLD is and as others have said if the Jets trade him elsewhere and he likes it maybe he signs there and the Habs miss out on him.
            sensonfire liked this.
            Mar. 30, 2023 at 12:22 p.m.
            #27
            Go Habs Go
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            Quoting: Onlyfairtrades1
            Keep telling yourself that if it helps you sleep at night, and go ahead and try more offer sheets and see how they work out. The poster here is spot on, Montreal will have plenty of RFA's of their own to worry about and the thought no one wants to play for the Jets is nonsense. It's all about GREEN for many players.


            Worrying about RFA's isn't only a factor when you're expecting an offer sheet in retribution.
            Montreal will still have those concerns with their own RFA's whether or not they go the offer sheet route.
            They simply may be more incentivized to get players signed to extensions early, before an offer sheet becomes an option.
            (Not saying they should go that route, but if you're prepared to do so, you're prepared for the possibility of that team attempting to poach one of your players.)

            The KK offer sheet was indeed embarrassing for Bergevin, but mostly because he allowed it to get to that point. He plays hardball in negotiations for players that don't match his preferred profile. He tacks on $500k or more for players he likes and deducts it from players he doesn't.
            Pivoting to Dvorak had the potential to be a win. He was widely viewed as a breakout candidate as a 2C in a new situation. It didn't work out as expected, but it's not like KK has either.
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            Mar. 30, 2023 at 12:28 p.m.
            #28
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            Nothing happens with PLD unless MTL re-acquires it’s 2nd rounder from ARZ.

            PLD isn’t taking a pay cut. And PLD has ALL the leverage right now. He can talk to MTL when free agency starts. If he says he wants to be a hab, Kent Hughes calls ARZ and reacquires his 2nd rd pick.

            WIN only needs to worry once that happens.

            If WIN was smart, they could put this all to bed by themselves acquiring MTL’s 2nd rd pick of ‘24.
            sensonfire liked this.
            Mar. 30, 2023 at 1:12 p.m.
            #29
            Leafs going to Leafs
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            Quoting: BadaBing
            You obviously don`t have an understanding of the Montreal Canadiens Organization. There is no issue with Cap with the departure of Drouin and Dadonov
            Goaltending is better than what the Leafs have
            Their D will have NHL experience under their belt and will be more effective next season
            a team with possible contention for playoff will compensate injuries with trades
            HABS would be a .500 and like I previously said pick will be 13-16


            MTL have 9.9 mill in projected cap space next year with Caufield to sign... that's not a lot of cap space
            Goaltending as sure not... Montembault (who's your best goaltender) has the same save percentage and a worse GAA as Matt Murray, the Leafs backup. That's not better goaltending
            1 year of NHL experience for an entire D core against the best isn't going to fair as well as you'd hope
            Not when half your team is from the AHL, injuries won't compensate with trades
            The Habs won't be a .500 team because the Atlantic is the strongest division in the league and will finish where they are this season (maybe a little better if Boston massively implodes) because every other team in the Atlantic is just better. Best case standings wise, you're pick ends up 13, worst case it ends up 5/6/7/8
            Mar. 30, 2023 at 1:21 p.m.
            #30
            Go Habs Go
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            Quoting: Leafsfan98
            MTL have 9.9 mill in projected cap space next year with Caufield to sign... that's not a lot of cap space
            Goaltending as sure not... Montembault (who's your best goaltender) has the same save percentage and a worse GAA as Matt Murray, the Leafs backup. That's not better goaltending
            1 year of NHL experience for an entire D core against the best isn't going to fair as well as you'd hope
            Not when half your team is from the AHL, injuries won't compensate with trades
            The Habs won't be a .500 team because the Atlantic is the strongest division in the league and will finish where they are this season (maybe a little better if Boston massively implodes) because every other team in the Atlantic is just better. Best case standings wise, you're pick ends up 13, worst case it ends up 5/6/7/8


            BTW with Cole signed at $8M per year and Monahan signed at $5M for 1 year an all other RFAs signed we still have $6M in Cap available. You really need to look at your facts
            Mar. 30, 2023 at 1:27 p.m.
            #31
            Leafs going to Leafs
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            Quoting: BadaBing
            BTW with Cole signed at $8M per year and Monahan signed at $5M for 1 year an all other RFAs signed we still have $6M in Cap available. You really need to look at your facts


            It says on CapFriendly that MTL has 9.6 mill next season, Monohan comes off LTIR for 15.9 mill in cap but signs for 5 mill... that's 10.9 mill. Even if Cole takes a pay cut to win and signs at 8, this leaves 2.9 mill without signing rookies, not the 6 mill you're saying. Get your facts straight
            Mar. 30, 2023 at 2:25 p.m.
            #32
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            Quoting: ricochetii
            Worrying about RFA's isn't only a factor when you're expecting an offer sheet in retribution.
            Montreal will still have those concerns with their own RFA's whether or not they go the offer sheet route.
            They simply may be more incentivized to get players signed to extensions early, before an offer sheet becomes an option.
            (Not saying they should go that route, but if you're prepared to do so, you're prepared for the possibility of that team attempting to poach one of your players.)

            The KK offer sheet was indeed embarrassing for Bergevin, but mostly because he allowed it to get to that point. He plays hardball in negotiations for players that don't match his preferred profile. He tacks on $500k or more for players he likes and deducts it from players he doesn't.
            Pivoting to Dvorak had the potential to be a win. He was widely viewed as a breakout candidate as a 2C in a new situation. It didn't work out as expected, but it's not like KK has either.


            I think all GM's do the same in negotiating with players because of human bias. They are going to give a better deal to players that fit their idea of what they want and play hard ball with ones that are less so. Bergevins mistake was short sighted in his not accepting that by offer sheeting another teams player it gives them incentive to do it back. Gorton will not do this. He could have when he stripped the Rangers down and had a ton of cap space, but he is not short sighted.
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            Mar. 30, 2023 at 8:44 p.m.
            #33
            Jet69
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            Quoting: dopplsan
            I still don't get the incentive for MTL to do any of this, when they know he's going to be coming to Quebec in a year.

            Even with PLD, it's not like MTL is going to be notably better than they were this year; so, why waste assets just to get the guy a year sooner, unless they *really* want that 8th year in his contract.


            The final year of the contract actually doesn’t make a difference, 8 years as an RFA or 7 as a UFA, it’s the contract dollars and marketing. Montreal would be looking at and approx extra 12-16M of total dollars more if they wait until he is a UFA of the cap goes up as expected. It is also a year earlier of jersey sales and marketing. I can only imagine the Habs ownership salivating at the thought of what Dubois could sell.
            It’s as much a business decision as it is a rebuild decision.
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            Mar. 30, 2023 at 9:00 p.m.
            #34
            Nah.
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            Quoting: jgimp69
            The final year of the contract actually doesn’t make a difference, 8 years as an RFA or 7 as a UFA, it’s the contract dollars and marketing. Montreal would be looking at and approx extra 12-16M of total dollars more if they wait until he is a UFA of the cap goes up as expected. It is also a year earlier of jersey sales and marketing. I can only imagine the Habs ownership salivating at the thought of what Dubois could sell.
            It’s as much a business decision as it is a rebuild decision.


            I guess I don’t have as much a beat on MTL marketing, but I’m not sure Dubois is so much a needle mover as a lot of people project. We’re not talking, like, Austin Matthews “going home” to the Coyotes, or John Tavares to TOR. The cap going up will help Dubois, sure, but we’re not talking some high-end eight-figure guy; Dubois’ market value is ****ed as is because everybody knows he will only sign long-term with MTL, so he and/or his agent made their calculation years ago when they decided to make their hissy-fits public.

            Plus, MTL isnt AZ, CBJ, or CAR - they rake in cash even when they suck.

            The cost has to be weighed against what is given up over offer-sheet compensation/“drama” for lack of a better phrase.
            Andy_Dick and sensonfire liked this.
            Mar. 30, 2023 at 9:23 p.m.
            #35
            Jet69
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            Edited Mar. 30, 2023 at 9:29 p.m.
            Quoting: dopplsan
            I guess I don’t have as much a beat on MTL marketing, but I’m not sure Dubois is so much a needle mover as a lot of people project. We’re not talking, like, Austin Matthews “going home” to the Coyotes, or John Tavares to TOR. The cap going up will help Dubois, sure, but we’re not talking some high-end eight-figure guy; Dubois’ market value is ****ed as is because everybody knows he will only sign long-term with MTL, so he and/or his agent made their calculation years ago when they decided to make their hissy-fits public.

            Plus, MTL isnt AZ, CBJ, or CAR - they rake in cash even when they suck.

            The cost has to be weighed against what is given up over offer-sheet compensation/“drama” for lack of a better phrase.


            Agree with weighing the decision, assets, long term cost etc. I get it.
            But Just look at the Montreal hype just with the rumor swirling last draft, then the recent Friedman comments since then (tbh, I’m not a huge Elliot fan, so I don’t necessarily believe his most recent comments, but back to my point)
            Habs fans have been losing their **** about it. It’s been discussed by every pundit on Sportnet, TSN, ESPN alike. It’s being talked about in podcast by reputable personalities as well as everyday homers. You can’t tell me the the owners don’t see that and think ka-Ching! It ALWAYS comes down to money.
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            Mar. 30, 2023 at 10:39 p.m.
            #36
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            Quoting: dopplsan
            I guess I don’t have as much a beat on MTL marketing, but I’m not sure Dubois is so much a needle mover as a lot of people project. We’re not talking, like, Austin Matthews “going home” to the Coyotes, or John Tavares to TOR. The cap going up will help Dubois, sure, but we’re not talking some high-end eight-figure guy; Dubois’ market value is ****ed as is because everybody knows he will only sign long-term with MTL, so he and/or his agent made their calculation years ago when they decided to make their hissy-fits public.

            Plus, MTL isnt AZ, CBJ, or CAR - they rake in cash even when they suck.

            The cost has to be weighed against what is given up over offer-sheet compensation/“drama” for lack of a better phrase.


            Quoting: jgimp69
            Agree with weighing the decision, assets, long term cost etc. I get it.
            But Just look at the Montreal hype just with the rumor swirling last draft, then the recent Friedman comments since then (tbh, I’m not a huge Elliot fan, so I don’t necessarily believe his most recent comments, but back to my point)
            Habs fans have been losing their **** about it. It’s been discussed by every pundit on Sportnet, TSN, ESPN alike. It’s being talked about in podcast by reputable personalities as well as everyday homers. You can’t tell me the the owners don’t see that and think ka-Ching! It ALWAYS comes down to money.


            Dubois jersey sales is so meaningless. He may as well be talking about the lack of carbon footprint PLD brings with a lot of family and friends not needed to be flown in and out of Montreal to attend his games.
            Montreal loses their sh3t over what language the coach speaks, its called a microscope. Dubois isnt at all a needle mover
            dopplsan and sensonfire liked this.
            Mar. 30, 2023 at 10:48 p.m.
            #37
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            Quoting: stephane_robidas
            Imagine turning Laine and Roslovic into a third-round pick


            Sunk cost fallacy is the only thing that explains why some clearly dont get it!
            PLD is gone, you recoup what you can and not we'll keep him if that is the case rhetoric I heard today. No you cant!
            And, they cant keep him til the TDL, it has become an even bigger circus than last offseason.
            You dont risk losing the asset for nothing. WE already saw teams sitting guys out for weeks before the TDL. You don't let an bankable asset wilt in the wind for lukewarm at best offer as a rental with a late 1st and B prospect. Take the top15 pick and move on. Its done. PLD is gone!
            sensonfire liked this.
            Mar. 31, 2023 at 8:40 a.m.
            #38
            Go Habs Go
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            Quoting: Leafsfan98
            It says on CapFriendly that MTL has 9.6 mill next season, Monohan comes off LTIR for 15.9 mill in cap but signs for 5 mill... that's 10.9 mill. Even if Cole takes a pay cut to win and signs at 8, this leaves 2.9 mill without signing rookies, not the 6 mill you're saying. Get your facts straight


            https://www.capfriendly.com/teams/canadiens
            Go to column 2023-2024 and add up the total. If you don`t know how to add use a calculator. Price is on LTIR
            Mar. 31, 2023 at 9:04 a.m.
            #39
            Leafs going to Leafs
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            Quoting: BadaBing
            https://www.capfriendly.com/teams/canadiens
            Go to column 2023-2024 and add up the total. If you don`t know how to add use a calculator. Price is on LTIR


            Fine, I'll play your stupid game and pretend MTL has 26 mill next season while acquiring Dubois as all you Habs fans want and say you have the cap space for... Caufield signs for 8 (which he'll prob go for 9-10 but whatever), Monahan signs for 5... this leaves 13 mill... Dubois signs for 8 mill like what he'll ask for and Gurianov signs for the exact same amount (3 mill)... this leaves 2 mill without signing any rookies/H-P and Ylonen and only improving your team by adding PLD. That team doesn't have much cap space to trade for a chance at the playoffs and likely will end with a top 10 pick like I said previously
             
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