Quoting: Windjammer
A lot don't work either value wise or contract wise.
The Helly trade is decent value, but the Jets would need a better goalie prospect coming back.
Petry isn't waiving for Winnipeg and the Jets aren't retaining that much if they are taking back Petry's contract.
The Jets aren't trading PLD for a mid first and 2 no value pieces when they can easily get more.
The Buffalo trade is okay.
The Jets have no reason to give NN and DeMelo away for picks.
The Jets get more for Scheifele retained.
The Jets aren't getting enough to take Mantha's contract.
So while they are getting a few late firsts, they are taking an awful lot of deadweight on or selling low on retained players.
I'm sure if you're sending Hellebuyck, Jersey would give up one of Schmid or Daws instead of Blackwood - hell they'd probably still send Blackwood if you wanted those guys to get extra time in the AHL.
I didn't do the math in my head on the Penguins trade but yeah, doesn't need retention as it's basically cost neutral (Petry+Granlund = $11.625M, Wheeler+Dillon = $12.025M). Petry waiving is the roadblock, but if we assume he does, I think the value of Petry/Granlund/1st for Wheeler/Dillon is fair, with the extra pick maybe thrown in for retention? Maybe Pittsburgh throws in a lottery ticket prospect but I don't think you need to add a ton more here.
Not going to argue on the PLD contract - I know where you stand, and personally I think it would be stupid for Montreal to give up extra assets if PLD is so dead set on signing there anyways.
As far as sending out Nino & DeMelo for picks - there would be plenty of reason to do that if you're doing a full tear down into a rebuild, no? I would assume at some point before their contracts end you'd want to cash in those veterans for futures if you're rebuilding.
Scheifele deal isn't awful, IMO - he's scoring on an inflated shooting percentage (over 20% this year), which sounds a lot like Bo Horvat from earlier this year - Horvat got a 1st/prospect/cap dump back along with Vancouver retaining 25%; I think Scheifele getting a 1st/recent 1st round pick/B- prospect with full retention and no cap coming back is pretty comparable. If you want to lower the retention or upgrade Beaucage I can see the case but I don't think it's far off in terms of value how it's set up.
Mantha's got 1x$5.7M left on his deal - I'd argue that you don't really need to be sending back RFA rights (unless you have no desire to sign them and the Caps have interest) but the value seems fair. Sean Monhan only got dumped with a 1st rounder because the Flames desperately needed the space to sign Kadri - right now the Caps have 11 F/ 4 D (+2 RFAs) / 2 G signed for next year with $7.3M in space available, so if the price to dump his contract gets too high they can just buy him out instead (saves $4.33M in 23-24 with a $2.17M penalty in 24-25.)
Beyond the PLD trade, I think there's room to wiggle on either side, but the way the rest of these deals are structured are exactly how I'd expect a team tearing it down to act - sacrificing current future value and cap space to amass a ton of picks and prospects. Four 1st round picks in one of the most loaded drafts in recent memory is a hell of a way to kick off a rebuild - even if you package two of those to jump up to a better spot, you're still getting some strong prospects in the door right at the start of the tear down.