Think the Blues prefer 3 years of Saad over 5 years of Rust.

Saad doesn't really need a change of scenery. And with where the Blues are at there's no reason to take on Rust's term.

Granlunds should happen - Petry's is an easy no. Too much of a waste

Player A (30 yo, signed for 5 more years):
Last 4 years:
251 games, 93 goals, 202 points

Player B (30 yo, signed for 3 more years):
Last 4 years:
250 games, 79 goals, 143 points

Both guys have a similar AAV.

All things considered, I'd take player A. Bryan Rust.

Blues say no at this point

Blues would rather have Saad than Rust. He might not score as many points but he is cheaper and signed for less term. We don't want another long term forward contract on the books

Rust's NMC falls off at the start of the 2025/26 season. Could be an easy trade piece to a contender. Trade as a whole was just a thought.

Except you haven't considered all things, and your math is off anyway. Blues will happily keep Saad, thanks.

What have I not considered?

Rust's last 4 years possession numbers: relative CF% average is 3.2 and his relative FF% average is 4.5

Saad's same numbers in that time period are: relative CF% average is 3.2 and his relative FF% average is 2.2

Slightly in Rust's favor.

Rust has great possession numbers on the PK (145min) and ok numbers on the PP (175min). Saad has ok numbers on the PP (130min) but doesn't really kill penalties (80min).

Both seem to be nice guys who are liked in their locker rooms. So what did I miss?

Also, I would rather keep Rust. So I think we're both happy with the guys on their current teams.

Edit: You highlighted the AAV poition of my statement. Rust makes 0.6MM more. So about the same.

The Blues situation. The Blues' cap space. And how their cap space situation means not taking on extra cap at winger when that's the last area they need to spend on. The Blues' reluctance to take on those two extra years of term for a guy who'll be into his mid-30's. The fact that playing Crosby most of the time and Malkin most of the rest of the time means his slight raise in specific analytic numbers isn't very impressive at all. All sorts of things.

Well they're relative possession numbers so they account for linemates. Also Rust is 0 6MM more per year and is a better two-way player so his drop-off shouldn't be too bad.

At the end of the day you prefer Saad. I have no problem with that. I prefer Rust.