Lafreniere to Detroit a What-If Offseason

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Created by: xvash2

Team: 2023-24 Detroit Red Wings

Initial Creation Date: Apr. 14, 2023

Published: Apr. 14, 2023

Salary Cap Mode: Basic

Description

The purpose of this exercise is to explore a potential off-season in which the Red Wings target a cash-constrained New York Rangers via offer-sheeting Alexis Lafreniere. Lafreniere has struggled to meet his draft expectations buried on the 3rd line with limited PP opportunities in NY. With the Rangers having just $12M to re-sign players this off-season, a desire to keep Kane, Tarasenko, and Miller among others could mean they have difficulty re-signing Lafreniere to a higher-than-expected dollar amount. Red Wings can afford to spend a 2024 2nd and give Lafreniere elite talent to play with, and give Larkin+Raymond high-skill support on the left wing.

The Red Wings also target FAs Damon Severson and Adin Hill to fill out top-4 RHD and 1A/1B goaltending needs.

Free Agent Signings

RFA	YEARS	CAP HIT
Lethemon, John	2	$825,000
Veleno, Joseph	2	$1,250,000
Luff, Matt	2	$850,000
Lindström, Gustav	2	$1,000,000
Lafrenière, Alexis	2	$4,201,487

UFA	YEARS	CAP HIT
Suter, Pius	2	$3,500,000
Hill, Adin	3	$4,750,000
Severson, Damon	7	$7,000,000

Offer Sheets

Offer sheet annual average (AAV) is calculated by dividing the contract value by the lower of: 1. The contract length, or 2. Five years

PLAYER	AAV	COMPENSATION
Lafrenière, Alexis	$4,201,487	2024 2nd round pick

Buyouts

Justin Abdelkader: $1,055,556

Retained Salary Transactions

Jakub Vrána: $2,625,000 (50%)

Draft	Round 1	Round 2	Round 3	Round 4	Round 5	Round 6	Round 7
2023
2024
2025

ROSTER

LONG-TERM OUTLOOK

EMBED

TEXT-EMBED

ROSTER SIZE	SALARY CAP	CAP HIT	OVERAGES	BONUSES	CAP SPACE
23	$83,500,000	$74,792,876	$0	$5,200,000	$8,707,124

Left Wing	Centre	Right Wing
Lafrenière, Alexis $4,201,487$4,201,487 LW, RW RFA - 2	Larkin, Dylan $8,700,000$8,700,000 C NTC UFA - 8	Raymond, Lucas $925,000$925,000 ($2,500,000$2M) RW, LW RFA - 1
Rasmussen, Michael $1,460,000$1,460,000 LW, C UFA - 1	Copp, Andrew $5,625,000$5,625,000 C, LW, RW M-NTC UFA - 4	Perron, David $4,750,000$4,750,000 RW, LW M-NTC UFA - 1
Kubalik, Dominik $2,500,000$2,500,000 LW, RW UFA - 1	Kasper, Marco $918,333$918,333 ($1,000,000$1M) C RFA - 3	Berggren, Jonatan $925,000$925,000 RW, LW RFA - 1
Suter, Pius $3,500,000$3,500,000 C, LW UFA - 2	Veleno, Joseph $1,250,000$1,250,000 C RFA - 1	Zadina, Filip $1,100,000$1,100,000 RW, LW RFA - 1

Left Defense	Right Defense	Goaltender
Walman, Jake $3,400,000$3,400,000 LD M-NTC UFA - 3	Seider, Moritz $863,333$863,333 ($850,000$850K) RD RFA - 1	Husso, Ville $4,750,000$4,750,000 G M-NTC UFA - 2
Edvinsson, Simon $894,167$894,167 ($850,000$850K) LD RFA - 3	Severson, Damon $7,000,000$7,000,000 RD UFA - 8	Hill, Adin $4,750,000$4,750,000 G UFA - 2
Määttä, Olli $3,000,000$3,000,000 LD UFA - 2	Chiarot, Ben $4,750,000$4,750,000 LD/RD M-NTC UFA - 3

Scratches	Injured Reserve (IR)	Long Term IR (LTIR)
Fabbri, Robby $4,000,000$4,000,000 LW UFA - 2
Lindström, Gustav $1,000,000$1,000,000 RD RFA - 1
Luff, Matt $850,000$850,000 RW UFA - 1

Apr. 14, 2023 at 10:20 p.m.

JoeROFLCOPTER

Joe

Joined: Nov. 2022

Posts: 7,695

Likes: 5,610

I'm a huge fan of Lafrienere to Detroit but offersheeting I'm not. Plus NYR matches that

Jfstompers liked this.

Apr. 14, 2023 at 10:25 p.m.

palhal

LongtimeLeafsufferer

Joined: Jul. 2015

Posts: 60,027

Likes: 22,963

I wouldn't mind if some team put in a offer sheet for LAF or Miller from the Rangers off goalies Samsonov or Swayman.
But IMO 7m X 7 years for Severson is really an overpay.

Ffmorgan09 liked this.

Apr. 14, 2023 at 10:25 p.m.

MoreHitzSeider

Seiders on the Storm

Joined: May 2020

Posts: 9,890

Likes: 7,764

Yzerman won't sign any player to an offer sheet.

Apr. 14, 2023 at 10:26 p.m.

Jfstompers

Pop Pop

Joined: Feb. 2018

Posts: 14,674

Likes: 8,301

Quoting: JoeROFLCOPTER

I'm a huge fan of Lafrienere to Detroit but offersheeting I'm not. Plus NYR matches that

Yeah the only way they get him in an offer sheet is if they go up another tier

Apr. 14, 2023 at 10:27 p.m.

Jfstompers

Pop Pop

Joined: Feb. 2018

Posts: 14,674

Likes: 8,301

I think it takes the next tier up if you really want him on an offer sheet.

Apr. 14, 2023 at 10:31 p.m.

MoSeider53

Future Norris guy

Joined: Aug. 2022

Posts: 15,605

Likes: 8,625

Yzerman is like Holland, He doesn't believe in offer sheets. he didn't become the best GM in the league by pissing off other GMs

Yzerman won't pay Damon Severson 7 x $7,000,000 that's a major overpay he wouldn't pay a much younger Filip Hronek who's better that much. And he won't pay Severson that much either.

Apr. 14, 2023 at 10:36 p.m.

palhal

LongtimeLeafsufferer

Joined: Jul. 2015

Posts: 60,027

Likes: 22,963

Quoting: Jfstompers

I think it takes the next tier up if you really want him on an offer sheet.

The Rangers can probably only one of their two RFAs....LAF and Miller to a 4.3m contract with the Rangers current cap. Now if the those want to take a "pay cut" fine, but if some team wants to offer sheet and the players accept, the Rangers could lose one of them with a 4.3m offer sheet.

Jfstompers liked this.

Apr. 14, 2023 at 10:42 p.m.

xvash2

Thread Starter

Xvash2

Joined: Jun. 2017

Posts: 23

Likes: 3

To clarify, the Rangers have ~$11-12M to re-sign at least 5 players for next season. Miller was a top-line minute muncher for the Rangers this season and put up offensive and defensive production on par with highly-paid defensive talent. You have to think he looks at Fox/Trouba's salaries and thinks he deserves at least $5-6M+. Perhaps Rangers get a sweetheart deal for Kane in the form of a $1M salary so he can stay but otherwise it will be tough for them to retain both Lafreniere and Miller AND fill out the remainder of their roster.

The Wings of course could use the leverage of a potential offer-sheet as an avenue to negotiate a trade in lieu of that approach, but the threat to the Rangers is very real.

Apr. 14, 2023 at 10:43 p.m.

xvash2

Thread Starter

Xvash2

Joined: Jun. 2017

Posts: 23

Likes: 3

Quoting: HockeyIsMyPassion61

You want a top-4 RHD? There are 2 available this season - Severson and Mayfield. Severson is closer to Hronek in terms of replacement, and due to the constrained market, an overpayment will be necessary if the WIngs wish to sign him. Of course, the team could continue to try and play Ben Chiarot in the Top-4, but I think we've all seen the charts on how that approach has played out.

Apr. 14, 2023 at 10:44 p.m.

#10

Jfstompers

Pop Pop

Joined: Feb. 2018

Posts: 14,674

Likes: 8,301

Quoting: palhal

Yeah but Laf is going to get 3ish million anyways so the rangers only have to find another million or so to keep him. They aren't swimming in cap space but it's not that much money to find to keep him. Make it 3+ million they need to find plus upgrade a 2nd to a 1st and 3rd then you may have them.

Apr. 14, 2023 at 11:08 p.m.

#11

MoreHitzSeider

Seiders on the Storm

Joined: May 2020

Posts: 9,890

Likes: 7,764

Quoting: xvash2

Mayfield isn't a top 4D. If a GM wants to run his team into the ground by paying Severson 7 mil AAV, that's their business. But it won't be Yzerman.

Apr. 15, 2023 at 12:07 a.m.

#12

Onlyfairtrades1

Joined: Feb. 2023

Posts: 3,484

Likes: 1,452

Good luck with that offer sheet nonsense.

Apr. 15, 2023 at 12:20 a.m.

#13

aedoran

Joined: Dec. 2017

Posts: 21,779

Likes: 12,086

It would make more sense to offer sheet an RHD.

Apr. 15, 2023 at 2:00 p.m.

#14

xvash2

Thread Starter

Xvash2

Joined: Jun. 2017

Posts: 23

Likes: 3

Quoting: aedoran

It would make more sense to offer sheet an RHD.

Here are your Top-4 RHD RFAs you could offer sheet:

* Evan Bouchard

That's it. Edmonton has the cap space to afford at least $6M+ for him, which means it'd be a 1st+3rd at minimum to try and poach him.

Apr. 15, 2023 at 2:03 p.m.

#15

xvash2

Thread Starter

Xvash2

Joined: Jun. 2017

Posts: 23

Likes: 3

Quoting: MoreHitzSeider

Mayfield isn't a top 4D. If a GM wants to run his team into the ground by paying Severson 7 mil AAV, that's their business. But it won't be Yzerman.

Mayfield played 21min a night on the Island this season on the top-pairing with Pelech. His defensive statistics are superior in every way to Chiarot, and he brings the size at 6'5" 220+. He isn't a big point-producer but if the DRW are pairing him with someone like Edvinsson, they don't need him to be, they need him to be a defensive rock against with Edvinsson can grow his two-way game.

Apr. 15, 2023 at 2:33 p.m.

#16

MoreHitzSeider

Seiders on the Storm

Joined: May 2020

Posts: 9,890

Likes: 7,764

Edited Apr. 15, 2023 at 2:39 p.m.

Quoting: xvash2

Lebda, Olausson, White and Lilja used to pair with Lidstrom. No one ever called them top 4D. If Mayfield were truly a top 4D the Isles would've re-signed him by now instead of letting him test UFA.

This is selective justification to support a flawed narrative on your part. Cherry picking.

Being a top 4D on the Red Wings doesn't make a Defenseman a true top 4D.

Yzerman could sign Mayfield because he's big and a RD and plays with an edge. And he could be a good fit with Edvinsson. But this doesn't make him a legit top 4D.

Apr. 15, 2023 at 6:25 p.m.

#17

aedoran

Joined: Dec. 2017

Posts: 21,779

Likes: 12,086

Quoting: xvash2

Byram???

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