Assuming 83.5M salary cap. The general rule here is: if it ain't broke, don't fix it.
UFAs:
Sign Haula, Tatar, Graves. Let Sevo and Wood walk.
Haula and Tatar play good roles with us and keeping them for 2-3 years makes sense while we consider prospect options to fill those roles.
Wood isn't worth 3M as a 4th liner.
For Sevo and Graves it's one or the other - Graves at 4M as a 2nd liner and top PKer is probably a better deal than Sevo at 4.5M-5M as a 3rd liner and PP2 dman.
RFAs:
Sign Bastian, McLeod, Boqvist, Sharangovich, Bratt, Meier, Bahl. Trade Blackwood.
Blackwood doesn't have a spot with us anymore - VV and Schmid are our tandem going forward (calling up Daws if either get injured) and a change of scenery might fix him. I flipped him to Ottawa, who need a goalie that's at least serviceable, for a third-round pick, but really anywhere is fine, as long as they'll take him and give us something in return.
Bastian and McLeod need to stay, they want to be here, we want them. Sign them to matching contracts, lock down your fourth line, and move forward.
Boqvist is a good bottom-sixer, get him for as cheap as you can.
Sharangovich I kept for a few years, but I do see him getting traded in the near future if any of our prospects is ready to make the jump to the NHL. Shango doesn't have a strong role within our system - he can't be fed pucks to snipe on any of our current lines, which we're trying to keep intact, and his usefulness as a PKer just won't cut it when half our forwards can PK. Also, he's kind of expensive to keep on the third line as a healthy scratch...
Bratt gets a 7.875x8, because it makes 63M total, and also because I don't know if he's worth 8M. Before I get the "you can pay people more than what Jack is making", the issue with Bratt is that he's kind of streaky and can go invisible for weeks at a time. Realistically he's probably going to get an 8.25x8, but that's why we have cap space.
Meier's getting an 8x7. Though he's angling for at least 9M, I suspect the Swiss connection with Nico and Jonas, as well as being on a Team That Isn't The Sharks (aka: winning), can get him to drop down to a team-friendlier 8M-8.5M.
If Bratt and Meier get significantly more expensive contracts than my projection, you trade Sharangovich for prospects or picks and use that money to figure it out.
Prospect Watch:
For the forwards, the most touted are probably Holtz and Filmon. Holtz we've seen in the NHL and we know that he needs top 6 minutes in order to function, as well as offseason work on skating and other aspects of his game. Even if he can get there, it will be tricky to find and justify a spot on the roster - maybe Tatar's, but Tuna does so much for the top line that Holtz isn't going to replicate (and if you let Tuna go, Timo is going to that top line anyway). Filmon probably needs another year of development.
Nemec is on the up-and-up for defensive prospects. Currently, the bottom line is a rotation between Bahl, Smith, and Hughes depending on opponents and needs. Nemec will likely come up in 24-25, once Smith's contract is up; I don't see us trying to force him to the NHL this season just to sit on the bench.
The lines as I've set up are honestly just projection because we know Lindy is going to Yahtzee them into oblivion within the first two periods of game 1 of the next season.
Also, Lindy, if you're reading this, FIX THE POWERPLAY. Clearly, putting all our talent on PP1 doesn't work, so spread it out and have 2 good PP lines that can split the PP time evenly. Here, my suggestion.
Oh, and get Mercer an extension sooner rather than later. Please.
Meier would get that 8th year on that deal. I don’t think it’s crazy that he signs that cap hit. He’s going to get 8 years of playoff hockey in NJ and that’s worth a discount from the estimated 9-10m
Why would meier or bratt sign those deals? They are leaving 10 million on the table
There are [checks notes] only 14 players in the entire league making 10m+ cap hit. Bratt, as I mentioned before, is a bit streaky and has a tendency to ghost for several games in a row. Him and his agent did the arbitration route this year so they could prove Bratt's worth, and we see he's a capable 70-point player. When you have M. Tkachuk and Kucherov posting 100+ points a season and making "only" 9.5m cap hit, Bratt isn't getting 10. Bratt's getting 8. Meier, as I also mentioned before, is angling more for 9m (his QO is 10m but that's not necessarily what he signs, as he mentioned himself he'd be more flexible if he was signed to a contender). And, again, gotta keep in mind the Swiss connection here, and that Meier knows that in NJ he can play for a Cup for the next 5+ years (barring another Year of Seven Goalies-level catastrophe) instead of tanking for draft picks.
Quoting: NYR1983
Meier would get that 8th year on that deal. I don’t think it’s crazy that he signs that cap hit. He’s going to get 8 years of playoff hockey in NJ and that’s worth a discount from the estimated 9-10m
He probably would go for 8 tbh. I just figured 7 would line up nicely, as Hischier's contract ends in '27, Siegenthaler's in '28, and 7-year Meier's would be in '29.
There are [checks notes] only 14 players in the entire league making 10m+ cap hit. Bratt, as I mentioned before, is a bit streaky and has a tendency to ghost for several games in a row. Him and his agent did the arbitration route this year so they could prove Bratt's worth, and we see he's a capable 70-point player. When you have M. Tkachuk and Kucherov posting 100+ points a season and making "only" 9.5m cap hit, Bratt isn't getting 10. Bratt's getting 8. Meier, as I also mentioned before, is angling more for 9m (his QO is 10m but that's not necessarily what he signs, as he mentioned himself he'd be more flexible if he was signed to a contender). And, again, gotta keep in mind the Swiss connection here, and that Meier knows that in NJ he can play for a Cup for the next 5+ years (barring another Year of Seven Goalies-level catastrophe) instead of tanking for draft picks.
He probably would go for 8 tbh. I just figured 7 would line up nicely, as Hischier's contract ends in '27, Siegenthaler's in '28, and 7-year Meier's would be in '29.
maybe you are misunderstanding me. To get 10 more million on their deals their cap hits would only go up over a million bucks not get to 10 aav. A 10 million AAV would mean they have left almost 20 million on the table.
Meier can easily take his 10 million QO and still get 9 million in FA the next year. that is 73 million, you only signed him to 56 million. I can see him leaving some on the table to play for a good team and with his friends but that is a lot of money. NJ holds little leverage to get him to sign under 8.5-9 million x 8 years.
Bratt has been scoring at the same rate as Meier, why would he sign for less? Adding an 8th year to his deal would actually make his cap hit go up. Even if Bratt took his QO (6 million) and then got 7 x 9 million on the market the next season, that is 68.75 million but you signed him 63 million. That one is a lot closer but there isnt much of a reason to sign under 8 million for him especially at 8 years for an almost 25 year old. .
maybe you are misunderstanding me. To get 10 more million on their deals their cap hits would only go up over a million bucks not get to 10 aav. A 10 million AAV would mean they have left almost 20 million on the table.
Meier can easily take his 10 million QO and still get 9 million in FA the next year. that is 73 million, you only signed him to 56 million. I can see him leaving some on the table to play for a good team and with his friends but that is a lot of money. NJ holds little leverage to get him to sign under 8.5-9 million x 8 years.
Bratt has been scoring at the same rate as Meier, why would he sign for less? Adding an 8th year to his deal would actually make his cap hit go up. Even if Bratt took his QO (6 million) and then got 7 x 9 million on the market the next season, that is 68.75 million but you signed him 63 million. That one is a lot closer but there isnt much of a reason to sign under 8 million for him especially at 8 years for an almost 25 year old. .
Even if we consider total contract value, you're saying Bratt goes for 9Mx8 and Meier goes for 9.5Mx8. I don't see that happening for Bratt. A friend of mine calls him "basically the same player" as Kevin Fiala, who's making 7.875M. Statlines roughly match as well. I can't see Bratt justifying 9M to anyone. 8.5M is the absolute most I would give him, 8.25M is probably what he's going to get.
Your math is off on Meier btw, as you give him an extra year at 9M, so the value you're comparing isn't 73M but 64M for the 7 years I'm proposing (10+9x6) as compared to 56M. Meier maybe could get 9M on free market, yes, and I do think he'll get a little more than 8M in practice (probably 8.5M), but 8M seems like a good sweet spot between making bank and being doable for the Devils.
And if we do need to bring Bratt and Meier up by 1M a piece (unlikely, but), you trade Shango and get the 2.5M back, plus the 830k currently available as space, and you'll be fine.
OTTAWA does what???? Come on.
Blackwood's past 3 seasons have his Sv% sub 900.
No team is paying you anything for his rights, let alone a THIRD ROUNDER. Seriously.
IF he gets a deal from any NHL team it will be a 2-way and he'll be back in the AHL.
OTTAWA does what???? Come on.
Blackwood's past 3 seasons have his Sv% sub 900.
No team is paying you anything for his rights, let alone a THIRD ROUNDER. Seriously.
IF he gets a deal from any NHL team it will be a 2-way and he'll be back in the AHL.
2 of Mac's past 3 seasons have also been on bottom tier Devils teams. Historically in his earlier seasons he did look very strong and was projected to end up as a starter (people called him MB29 like Marty Brodeur was MB30), but. Dude has flashes of brilliance, can definitely keep you in games sometimes (like the Boston one where he locked it down after the two goals by Zacha), and could honestly be a decent backup/1B option provided he... stays healthy. Yeah. That's a bit of a problem for him too. Keeps getting hurt. But there's definitely a way to sell it as a "change of scenery" thing, which could really help him too - the Devils team this season literally plays worse in front of him. Lack of confidence, I don't know. He definitely has potential, he just needs a team that can work with him and aren't instinctively regressing in front of him.
Ottawa could bat at it, their goalie situation is... literally Forsberg who's on IR, I think, because Talbot wants out. Look, at least I didn't say Toronto, which some of my friends think could want him. (Why tho?) Really, anywhere you can ship the guy and get anything back is good. (The "third" is a bit of a Devils meme, given that a lot of our best players - Siegenthaler, Marino, Vanecek - were acquired for essentially a third-round pick. But if you can get a third, fourth, whatever, just get something back, anything. No room left for him in NJ.)
Decent post.
Agreed on Wood and Blackwood, the Devils should 100% move on from them in the summer.
I have a hard time seeing Blackwood fetching a 3rd rd pick in return however, he'd more likely go unqualified and end up an UFA.
Not sure if this is something you intended but keeping Nemec in the AHL to slide his ELC one more year is the correct decision in my opinion.
I think you're very optimistic on the Bratt and Meier deals getting them signed to less than 16m combined, I see them coming in at 500k - 1m more in AAV as a pair.
If Fitzgerald can get Bratt and Meier signed to less than 17m AAV combined he will have done very well in that aspect of the offseason.
The rest of the RFA deals are fine, though the term given to Yegor should take him straight to UFA but might be worth it as the AAV is teamfriendly (or should I say capfriendly).
Resigning both Haula and Tatar means that there will be room for only one of Foote and Holtz in the big league.
This is not a small issue as Foote loses his waiver-exemption (I'd bet he gets claimed if placed on waivers) and Holtz kinda has to be playing in the NHL next season.
There's also Clarke and Thompson (who also loses his waiver-exemption) who'll be pushing for spots in the lineup.
It's gonna be very crowded at forward next season, therefore I think it makes more sense only to resign one of the two UFAs.
If it were up to me it'd be Tatar, dude has been fantastic this year whereas I believe that Boqvist could rather comfortably handle the 3C role quite well.
There's a similar case with resigning Graves, as it keeps the turning waiver eligible Reilly Walsh out of the lineup.
It's not as big an issue as with the forwards but I'm personally rooting hard for Walsh to play in the Devils NHL lineup next season.
6 years out from being drafted I think he'd be more than capable of being an asset at 3RHD/7D.