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Dubois Value

Created by: Howie
Team: 2022-23 Winnipeg Jets
Initial Creation Date: Apr. 25, 2023
Published: Apr. 25, 2023
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Trades
WPG
  1. Dvorak, Christian
  2. Mesar, Filip
  3. 2023 1st round pick (FLA)
  4. 2023 4th round pick (MTL)
Additional Details:
Is this Dubois' value bang on?
Seems to make sense for both and isn't screwing each other.
DraftRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7
2023
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2024
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2025
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ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
29$82,500,000$86,333,691$0$2,132,500-$3,833,691
Left WingCentreRight Wing
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$7,142,857$7,142,857
LW
UFA - 4
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$8,250,000$8,250,000
RW
M-NTC, NMC
UFA - 2
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$4,000,000$4,000,000
LW, RW
UFA - 2
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$2,166,667$2,166,667
RW
UFA - 3
Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
$1,250,000$1,250,000
LW, RW, C
M-NTC
UFA - 1
Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
$3,250,000$3,250,000
C
M-NTC
UFA - 4
Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
$6,000,000$6,000,000
RW, LW
M-NTC
UFA - 3
Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
$925,000$925,000 (Performance Bonus$850,000$850K)
LW, RW
RFA - 1
Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
$750,000$750,000
C, RW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
$825,000$825,000
RW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
$775,000$775,000
LW, C
RFA - 2
Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
$6,125,000$6,125,000
C
M-NTC
UFA - 2
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$750,000$750,000
RW, LW
UFA - 1
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$750,000$750,000
LW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
$4,450,000$4,450,000
C
UFA - 3
Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
$750,000$750,000
RW, C
UFA - 1
Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
$950,000$950,000
RW, C
RFA - 4
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
$6,250,000$6,250,000
LD
NMC
UFA - 6
Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
$5,875,000$5,875,000
RD
UFA - 3
Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
$6,166,667$6,166,667
G
UFA - 2
Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
$5,950,000$5,950,000
LD/RD
M-NTC
UFA - 3
Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
$3,000,000$3,000,000
RD
M-NTC
UFA - 2
Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
$900,000$900,000
G
UFA - 1
Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
$3,900,000$3,900,000
LD
UFA - 2
Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
$855,000$855,000 (Performance Bonus$82,500$82K)
G
RFA - 2
Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
$925,000$925,000 (Performance Bonus$350,000$350K)
LD
RFA - 1
Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
$845,833$845,833
G
UFA - 1
Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
$900,000$900,000
LD
RFA - 1
Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
$762,500$762,500
LD
UFA - 2
ScratchesInjured Reserve (IR)Long Term IR (LTIR)
Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
$894,167$894,167 (Performance Bonus$850,000$850K)
LW, C
RFA - 2

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Apr. 25, 2023 at 7:15 p.m.
#26
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Quoting: Shanesaw9

It's nice that a home province star wants to actually come home, and Montreal should look into it for sure, but they absolutely could wait, and even if they miss out they still have $8M+ to spend elsewhere. Dubois is good but he isn't a can't miss one in a decade opportunity.


LOL. Tell that to Bergevin who spent 9 years trying to acquire a player like him!
Apr. 25, 2023 at 7:17 p.m.
#27
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Quoting: Howie
So it's either
1st mesar Dvorak
Or
1st kidney Dvorak 4th?


Wait wait wait. Wasn't it Hoffman?
Apr. 25, 2023 at 7:18 p.m.
#28
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Quoting: Howie
I'm not saying he's worthless but definitely wouldn't trade much for him as he isn't a direct need. I prefer Hoffman simply because his contract ends sooner and don't have to worry about trading Dvorak again so soon. Ylonen is 24 next season and isn't really much of a prospect anymore. Not saying he's bad just wouldn't be what the jets want prospect wise. Hoffman would simply be for cap as most hab agms want to move cap to the jets. I'd say that Dvorak rn is worth about a late 3rd early 4th as sure he has value but with an injury and trade protection on top of the cap that teams would need to work around just makes it difficult warranting like a 2nd for him. Jets view Dvorak and Hoffman pretty similar as they aren't a need so if you want to put in Hoffman and keep Dvorak that's fine.


Habs could keep both - they have tons of cap space, I put Dvorak in the trade because you would think having a middle 6 C to mitigate the loss of Dubois would be an ideal roster return.

Hoffman would be a terrible fit in WPG, IMO... sure he has one less year but he would have no role there.
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Apr. 25, 2023 at 7:19 p.m.
#29
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Quoting: jonh514
Wait wait wait. Wasn't it Hoffman?


Dvorak is the one in the deal it doesn't really matter who.
I like the
1st mesar Hoffman 4th deal personally
Apr. 25, 2023 at 7:20 p.m.
#30
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Quoting: Shanesaw9
Habs could keep both - they have tons of cap space, I put Dvorak in the trade because you would think having a middle 6 C to mitigate the loss of Dubois would be an ideal roster return.

Hoffman would be a terrible fit in WPG, IMO... sure he has one less year but he would have no role there.


Hoffman could possibly be the 2nd line lw possibly and try perfetti as the 2 c. Cap could be tight with caufield Dubois and other players via fa. Just seems like if you can include Hoffman it opens up Cap and the roster spot for a younger guy.
Apr. 25, 2023 at 7:22 p.m.
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Neither a jets nor Habs fan, but is he really worth a mid first and high end prospect and a second? He seems like his efforts to control his playing location (which to be honest I don't have an issue with, but the NHL is a boys club who doesn't like this stuff) would be lowering his value.
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Apr. 25, 2023 at 7:24 p.m.
#32
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Quoting: jonh514
LOL. Tell that to Bergevin who spent 9 years trying to acquire a player like him!


Bergevin managed to acquire Suzuki and he also struck gold with Danault (too bad he signed Gallagher over him oof).

Bergevin also refused to rebuild, which is what is different about the position Hughes finds himself in. They could potentially draft a C this year with their top pick (Fantilli, Carlsson, Smith), Hughes already acquired Dach who looks great, it's only been one full season.

I trust Hughes more at attracting free agents being a former agent, plus St. Louis is well respected by players around the league. MTL is building towards something and you can actually get a sense of a greater plan than see if we can get into the playoffs every year.
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Apr. 25, 2023 at 7:24 p.m.
#33
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Quoting: BCAPP
Neither a jets nor Habs fan, but is he really worth a mid first and high end prospect and a second? He seems like his efforts to control his playing location (which to be honest I don't have an issue with, but the NHL is a boys club who doesn't like this stuff) would be lowering his value.


He still has a base value as a rental where he can realistically return a first a prospect and another piece. Mtl has to beat that type of offer and why Dubois deals are rampant as jets can't lose him for nothing and mtl don't want to lose the player by being too patient or by cap reasons for Dubois wanting more in fa than now.
Apr. 25, 2023 at 7:25 p.m.
#34
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Quoting: Shanesaw9
Habs could keep both - they have tons of cap space, I put Dvorak in the trade because you would think having a middle 6 C to mitigate the loss of Dubois would be an ideal roster return.

Hoffman would be a terrible fit in WPG, IMO... sure he has one less year but he would have no role there.


Habs would love to keep Dvorak. They need a 3rd line Center and Dvorak is a good team guy. Is he paid about 1M too much? Sure he is, but with all the kids in our lineup, it's not a big deal. Hoffman has to go and yes, I would add a 4th, if WPG takes him in the deal so we don't have to buy him out.
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Apr. 25, 2023 at 7:29 p.m.
#35
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Quoting: Shanesaw9
Bergevin managed to acquire Suzuki and he also struck gold with Danault (too bad he signed Gallagher over him oof).

Bergevin also refused to rebuild, which is what is different about the position Hughes finds himself in. They could potentially draft a C this year with their top pick (Fantilli, Carlsson, Smith), Hughes already acquired Dach who looks great, it's only been one full season.

I trust Hughes more at attracting free agents being a former agent, plus St. Louis is well respected by players around the league. MTL is building towards something and you can actually get a sense of a greater plan than see if we can get into the playoffs every year.


I agree. I'm just saying 25 year 6' 3 Centers who score ~30 goals and have PPG potential do NOT grow on trees and in a lot of cases the guys drafted in the top 10 this draft won't hit his level.
Apr. 25, 2023 at 7:31 p.m.
#36
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Quoting: jonh514
Habs would love to keep Dvorak. They need a 3rd line Center and Dvorak is a good team guy. Is he paid about 1M too much? Sure he is, but with all the kids in our lineup, it's not a big deal. Hoffman has to go and yes, I would add a 4th, if WPG takes him in the deal so we don't have to buy him out.


See now that's also a reason why to include mesar over kidney. Jets are doing habs a favor in taking Hoffman who is taking up cap and a spot so the difference between mesar and kidney shouldn't really matter as you keep kidney who has done quite well. Mtl has 3 4ths this year and giving 1 also isn't too big. Saving the money from a buyout in the Second year may not be too much (1.667m) but with mtl cap is gold and could be the difference between ability to retain, take on a bad contract for a pick (Monahan) or spend to make the team slightly better thus showing a progression.
Apr. 25, 2023 at 7:32 p.m.
#37
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Quoting: jonh514
Habs would love to keep Dvorak. They need a 3rd line Center and Dvorak is a good team guy. Is he paid about 1M too much? Sure he is, but with all the kids in our lineup, it's not a big deal. Hoffman has to go and yes, I would add a 4th, if WPG takes him in the deal so we don't have to buy him out.


You could flip Hoffman for Mantha, +$1.2M cap hit, sign Dubois and Caufield to $8M each and still have $2M in cap space, no need to really dump Hoffman or buy him out.

I'd like to move on sure, but it's not actually necessary to facilitate a trade for Dubois.
Apr. 25, 2023 at 7:34 p.m.
#38
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Quoting: Shanesaw9
You could flip Hoffman for Mantha, +$1.2M cap hit, sign Dubois and Caufield to $8M each and still have $2M in cap space, no need to really dump Hoffman or buy him out.

I'd like to move on sure, but it's not actually necessary to facilitate a trade for Dubois.


That's true but why not when you have the option to. Opening up 4.5 million extra if you attach Hoffman to the deal is massive going into the offseason. Cap is an asset as well and getting rid of Hoffman opens cap and a roster spot for more youth to get more impactful minutes
Apr. 25, 2023 at 7:38 p.m.
#39
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Quoting: Shanesaw9
You could flip Hoffman for Mantha, +$1.2M cap hit, sign Dubois and Caufield to $8M each and still have $2M in cap space, no need to really dump Hoffman or buy him out.

I'd like to move on sure, but it's not actually necessary to facilitate a trade for Dubois.


Maybe. I don't really want Mantha though. I would be just as happy signing Engvall for 3M/season and the same production. I would also rather keep space for kids like Heineman & Roy to make the team. No more of this Armia-style logjam where kids can't get a shot because Armia HAS to work out.
Apr. 25, 2023 at 7:42 p.m.
#40
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Edited Apr. 25, 2023 at 8:23 p.m.
Quoting: jonh514
I agree. I'm just saying 25 year 6' 3 Centers who score ~30 goals and have PPG potential do NOT grow on trees and in a lot of cases the guys drafted in the top 10 this draft won't hit his level.


No they don't grow on trees, they get drafted early by rebuilding teams which is where MTL is right now haha.

There's a 17% chance the habs get Bedard or Fantilli (If they get Bedard I would absolutely pony up to get Dubois a year early). After that there's a 24.8% chance they draft 5th and with any luck they get Will Smith or Carlsson

I believe 3-4 of these players will be better than Dubois. Then they could also drop as low as 7th and still land Dvorsky or another good C prospect with size.

If Dubois really wants to come to MTL, they will absolutely have a spot and the cap space for him in 2024 (assuming WPG's ask is too high). All I'm saying is the habs don't need to trade for Dubois.
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Apr. 25, 2023 at 7:44 p.m.
#41
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Quoting: Howie
That's true but why not when you have the option to. Opening up 4.5 million extra if you attach Hoffman to the deal is massive going into the offseason. Cap is an asset as well and getting rid of Hoffman opens cap and a roster spot for more youth to get more impactful minutes


Because you are trying to extort us for Mesar and extra draft picks, makes no sense for a rebuilding team... the habs don't owe Hoffman a spot over a young player, he's irrelevant.

Would it be nice to move him? Sure. Should they pay to do so? No. I'd rather buy him out than pay extra for the Jets to take him.
Apr. 25, 2023 at 7:48 p.m.
#42
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Quoting: jonh514
Maybe. I don't really want Mantha though. I would be just as happy signing Engvall for 3M/season and the same production. I would also rather keep space for kids like Heineman & Roy to make the team. No more of this Armia-style logjam where kids can't get a shot because Armia HAS to work out.


Point is they could replace Hoffman with a higher cap hit and still have lots of wiggle room... could care less if they actually got Mantha.

Roy will need time in Laval, and if you are giving these spots to kids immediately for opening night then when injuries hit you are screwed.

I would rather see Roy not rushed, get a call up to the NHL when an opportunity presents itself and go from there.
Apr. 25, 2023 at 7:51 p.m.
#43
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Quoting: Howie
So it's either
1st mesar Dvorak
Or
1st kidney Dvorak 4th?


I'm only saying it's close enough. There's some wiggle room around negotiations.
If Jets say they want Mesar and Hughes says no Mesar, the next step would be Winnipeg picking a different player and suggesting an addition for doing so.

The template for a trade would be:

Any 1st that isn't Montreal's own pick
A non-NHL prospect
A roster player who offsets some cap and can be flipped for an additional asset (may require retention or raising their value while in Winnipeg)

If they are willing to compromise in one of those, they can ask for more in another. Take the Calgary 1st instead of Florida's, and getting Hughes to agree to Mesar is much more likely.
Take Armia instead of Dvorak, perhaps you can get Florida's pick and Mesar. I just don't think you're going to get your choice in all 3 of those areas.
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Apr. 25, 2023 at 7:52 p.m.
#44
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Quoting: Shanesaw9
Because you are trying to extort us for Mesar and extra draft picks, makes no sense for a rebuilding team... the habs don't owe Hoffman a spot over a young player, he's irrelevant.

Would it be nice to move him? Sure. Should they pay to do so? No. I'd rather buy him out than pay extra for the Jets to take him.


How is mesar being extorted but kidney who has done better is just being thrown away in the deal. If beck is the 3rd line c than kidney is either 4th line c or a 3rd line winger. 3rd line winger is likely what mesar is too so it's not really extorting value but doing mtl a service and allowing mtl to save cap and roster spots. Mtl also has 3 4ths this year so a later one from the pens is not realistically that much on top of the deal
Apr. 25, 2023 at 7:54 p.m.
#45
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Quoting: ricochetii
I'm only saying it's close enough. There's some wiggle room around negotiations.
If Jets say they want Mesar and Hughes says no Mesar, the next step would be Winnipeg picking a different player and suggesting an addition for doing so.

The template for a trade would be:

Any 1st that isn't Montreal's own pick
A non-NHL prospect
A roster player who offsets some cap and can be flipped for an additional asset (may require retention or raising their value while in Winnipeg)

If they are willing to compromise in one of those, they can ask for more in another. Take the Calgary 1st instead of Florida's, and getting Hughes to agree to Mesar is much more likely.
Take Armia instead of Dvorak, perhaps you can get Florida's pick and Mesar. I just don't think you're going to get your choice in all 3 of those areas.


What about Hoffman instead of Dvorak? That should help the deal as keeping a good 3rd line center than Hoffman should be more beneficial to mtl.
What about Florida 1st, mesar, Hoffman Pittsburgh 4th?
Apr. 25, 2023 at 8:03 p.m.
#46
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Quoting: Howie
What about Hoffman instead of Dvorak? That should help the deal as keeping a good 3rd line center than Hoffman should be more beneficial to mtl.
What about Florida 1st, mesar, Hoffman Pittsburgh 4th?


I'm not the one making the trade. wink

Hoffman doesn't have enough of an impact on Montreal to warrant conceding in other areas of the trade. (Neither does Dvorak, but makes more sense due to the extra year at least.)
Armia, Gallagher, and Allen, are the possibilities, with Armia being the easiest for Winnipeg to take (and therefore extract the least value in negotiations).
Apr. 25, 2023 at 8:19 p.m.
#47
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Quoting: Howie
How is mesar being extorted but kidney who has done better is just being thrown away in the deal. If beck is the 3rd line c than kidney is either 4th line c or a 3rd line winger. 3rd line winger is likely what mesar is too so it's not really extorting value but doing mtl a service and allowing mtl to save cap and roster spots. Mtl also has 3 4ths this year so a later one from the pens is not realistically that much on top of the deal


Kidney produced more in the weak QMJHL after being traded to a strong team... yes. He's also been invisible in two habs camps while Mesar stood out (same with Beck who had a comparable season to Mesar). Just because you are willing to take Hoffman doesn't mean MTL will want to pay Mesar or Beck (over Kidney) for you to do it. Just because MTL has 3 4th's doesn't mean they should just give them away either...

I don't even necessarily like the idea of giving up Lidney in this deal, not because Kidney is untouchable or anything but because we are already offering 17th overall which is going to be a very good prospect in a deep draft - and the bottom line is MTL could potentially acquire Dubois for nothing in 2024 (and rebuilding one more year they will only lead to even more good draft picks).

There's a total cost for Dubois that makes sense.

For me it's Dvorak, Ylonen, FLA 1st (17th). Now I could see us parting with Kidney instead of Ylonen, but for me that's pushing it right to the limit.
Apr. 25, 2023 at 8:23 p.m.
#48
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Quoting: Shanesaw9

I don't even necessarily like the idea of giving up Kidney in this deal, not because Kidney is untouchable or anything but because we are already offering 17th overall which is going to be a very good prospect in a deep draft - and the bottom line is MTL could potentially acquire Dubois for nothing in 2024 (and rebuilding one more year they will only lead to even more good draft picks).



Nothing more needs to be said. Sometimes, I wonder if we are treating the jets and Chevy with penance instead of using our leverage. Yes, its a balancing act but the leverage is so in our favour and the Jets are so screwed (did it to themselves with Laine deal) We cant simply go to each extreme that they get nothing or they get something fair. It will be closer to fair but they wont be getting close to what they think when there is probably a lot of background noise ppl are unaware but its in the ether (PLD showing up to 2022 draft, offer sheets) It may be far worse than Jets fans realize.
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Apr. 25, 2023 at 8:29 p.m.
#49
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Quoting: Shanesaw9
Kidney produced more in the weak QMJHL after being traded to a strong team... yes. He's also been invisible in two habs camps while Mesar stood out (same with Beck who had a comparable season to Mesar). Just because you are willing to take Hoffman doesn't mean MTL will want to pay Mesar or Beck (over Kidney) for you to do it. Just because MTL has 3 4th's doesn't mean they should just give them away either...

I don't even necessarily like the idea of giving up Lidney in this deal, not because Kidney is untouchable or anything but because we are already offering 17th overall which is going to be a very good prospect in a deep draft - and the bottom line is MTL could potentially acquire Dubois for nothing in 2024 (and rebuilding one more year they will only lead to even more good draft picks).

There's a total cost for Dubois that makes sense.

For me it's Dvorak, Ylonen, FLA 1st (17th). Now I could see us parting with Kidney instead of Ylonen, but for me that's pushing it right to the limit.


So swapping in Hoffman does nothing to improve the return? Dvorak could still be useful to the Habs and to basically keep him in exchange for giving up Hoffman and pick 110 seems like a steal to keep Dvorak. Ylonen again is nothing to the jets as we would never give him the time needed to succeed. That's why I really want mesar as sure he might have struggled he can have the upside where management forces coaches to see what he could bring with an increased role. Kidney may have done better but im more worried with him always being in these deals that there's something underlying where there's a reason he's included. Like is it that mtl fans think that the production won't transfer, will he struggle and have to change his game, is there attitude or some type of personal affect? Just seems like there's a reason why Kidney is always the one choosen
Apr. 25, 2023 at 8:35 p.m.
#50
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Montreal doesn’t have any need to spend big to get Dubois no matter what Winnipeg fans think

Dvorak and Floridas 1st
Or Dvorak kidney and a second
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