Quoting: tkecanuck341
If Dubas picked up the phone and said to all 31 GMs in the league, "Matthews and Marner are available. Deadline is June 30th. Go." I guarantee there would be deals done by then.
Of those teams.
No rebuilding team will trade their future for 1 year of Matthews or 2 of Marner. I would say that eliminates Arizona, Columbus, Anaheim, SanJose, Montreal, Philly, and Chicago. Those who missed the playoff but aren't necessarily in rebuild mode include the Sabres, Redwings and Sens. Leafs won't trade superstar players to a divisional rival, so that eliminates those 3.
Pittsburgh was supposed to be in contention this year. They need to decide what direction their franchise is going to go in. Pittsburgh does not have the assets to trade for Matthews anyways unless they gave up a young piece of their core, like Guentzle, which is a player they will need for a rebuild in the near future, so they are probably out.
Washington may be the only team in the east that missed the playoffs who has the assets to and who may consider trading for Marner or Matthews. However, they need to figure out what direction to go in as well, as they finished way lower than expected, and may consider rebuilding or retooling rather than going all in this upcoming season. It may take time for them to figure out what is best for their frachise. You mix in that time with the time it takes for Leafs management to figure out who is going to be in charge next season and what direction to take the team, there is probably no fit there as well.
NJ, Carolina, and Florida will not negotiate until their seasons are done, which could be a while, so there is likely not enough time to come up with a deal involving those 3. They are all out.
Tampa is up against the cap, and are unlikely to move one of their big guns for Marner or Matthews. They are probably out.
Boston does not have a lot of moveable assets as well, and need to figure out what direction their franchise is going in. They obviously won't move their big guns, so they are likely out.
Rangers are in cap hell as well, and are likely going to be unable to re-sign Tarasenko let alone afford a guy like Marner or Matthews. Yes, they may have the assets, but not the cap space. They are out.
That leaves the Islanders. Like the rangers, they have assets, but unless they move out a guy like Bailey, they have very little cap space. They are out.
So those guys aren't going to be traded within the east.
Western teams still in the playoffs: Edmonton, Vegas, Dallas, Seattle. Likely not enough time to get a deal done there as they will be focused on playing not trading. They are out. All except for Seattle will be in cap hell anyways.
Colorado does have some cap space with Landeskog out. They could use some offence. They have a surplus of defence and some young forwards they could move. (Byram, Toews, Newhook, Girard, etc). However, acquiring a guy like Matthews or Marner would mean their depth, especially up front, would stink. They likely use the money they have to acquire some depth rather then an expensive superstar forward. They are out.
Minnesota is sort of similar. They could use a number 1 C like Matthews to play with Kaprizov, but spending that money would mean having terrible depth, and likely trading out a young player like Boldy. Their top line might be the best in the league, but their depth would stink. They are out
Winnipeg. Of all the teams I mentioned so far, this is the most unlikely scenario. If you have watched the leafs history with the Jets in recent years, they hate each other. So that is likely off the table.
LA is an interesting option. Cap space. Lots of young assets. However, their first priority will be a goalie. Their offence is good as is. What they struggled to do is keep the puck out of their net. What they will be looking for is a steady stay at home left shot defenceman, and a goaltender. Likely no fit there.
Vancouver is in cap hell, and so is Calgary. Those are both going to off the table just due to the time it would take to figure out the cap implications.
So who is left over? St. Louis and Nashville. St. Louis has assets and young players. Do they have cap space? Not really, and their goaltending situation like LA is in shambles. Unless they are sending back a guy like Kyrou or Thomas, they won't have the cap to acquire a star forward and figure out their goaltending situation. They are out.
Nashville has cap space and some assets. Do I like those assets? Unless their name is Saros, no. Nothing useful to the Leafs. They are out.
So, given time, cap restrictions, and all other factors, the likeliness of a trade before July 1st is almost 0.