bottom 6 is much better than it used to be

Detroit cuts you out of the deal and trades one of their three seconds for Addison.

EDIT: Also Addison does seem like a good choice to go after for Pitt.

That pick swap wouldnt be fair value going back to PIT in a draft day trade. You’d probably need another late 2nd to get the right amount of value.

in the MTL deal? I’m a pens fan and I feel that’s fair, maybe taking Ylenon back but this is pretty fair imo.

So a comparable trade is the ARI 27/34/45 going to SJS for 11. The FLA pick is assumed to be 28 (and can only get less valuable) and the PIT pick is 14, that 3 spot difference is worth roughly 10%.

I think the Habs would be all over this screaming no take backs. And depending on whether the Habs think there’s a tier change, that could make it an even better deal for them and much worse for the Pens.

Obviously depends on how the draft is going too and if their guy is still available.

100%. As an outside observer, I highly doubt the pens make that pick and use it to bring in some help.

If we were able to do something like this team above with the trade back and getting assets, I would be very happy. It’s doable if the new GM wants to get younger opposed to signing UFAs to big contracts. I’m okay with a couple, but I don’t want Severson Dumba etc.

Easy decline for Detroit.

🥃

Honestly as a Habs fan, I don't think Pittsburgh would do this trade, would probably at least ask for a 3rd instead of 4th round pick, and maybe something else too. But like you said, depends on who Montreal/Pittsburgh like in the draft

That pick is in the "mushy middle". There's no clear selection for Montreal there, while the late part of the round could have some RHD and goalie options without reaching.
I might do it if there were someone our scouts identified in that range that were still available, but I wouldn't go quite that far to grab that pick.
Now if we needed that pick to flip in another trade, like Romanov -> Dach, that's different.

Yea that's all true, if this trade were to happen it would need to be after the 13 picks are revealed to see who is available at 14, because if Reinbacher somehow drops that far or if Yager drops, I can see Montreal doing it as we have a lot of decent prospects but are lacking high quality prospects which we need more of.

You'll probably have to pick Domi or Compher. No shot they both come in at that low of AAV

The deal is fair according to the draft pick value chart(3.1+2.1+0.3=5.5) 14th overall (5.1) but teams typically overpay a tad to move up. An extra 2nd is a bit much, probably a 3rd round pick at the 1 value not the 2 value and its market value

Is Dubas the GM making these moves?

Everything looks fairly realistic. Good job

Depends entirely if Barlow/Wood is available otherwise yeah just grab a RHD option like Dragicevic @29OA

The only thing I see different is that Montreal would rather take the cap dump in Granlund instead of giving up the Florida 1st and Habs 2nd. That contract here is bought out with a 1.8M cap hit in the following 3 seasons after 2024. The Pens much rather have the cap flexibility and Montreal has the cap space to weaponize

Of the trades that have revolved around moving up in the 1st round, a 10% premia on the highest pick is the average “overpay” to complete the trade.

I only brought it up with the OP b/c I’m doing some work with picks and the draft ATM. But agreed that nothing looks off, and I figured OP would like to hear the Pens could get more.

Theathletic mock draft had an interesting idea to trade the 5th and 31st pick for the Wings 9thOA and 17thOA picks. Not sure what Hughes will do but he is unorthodox after last years draft chaos and Yzerman loves his enigmatic Russians after drafting Kucherov and trading for Sergachev. He goes Michkov at 5.

I think that’s the easiest solution for the Habs. Just take the best guy available and take his ELC in 3 years. Don’t need to overthink it.

As for the trade, Habs lose that instance pretty badly. If they’re going from 5 to 9, they surely shouldn’t be sending 31 back. I do wonder if they send 31 or 37 to SJS for pick #4, I think SJS is probably a team that would gladly take Michkov and they need more picks.