Quoting: Windjammer
That's the most common offer from Montreal fans, but doesn't make it fair or reasonable as noted by most Jet and unbiased fans. The Jets may take back salary, but it won't be of the cap dump variety and it won't be two bad pieces, unless Winnipeg is compensated accordingly. Armia has negative value. If he had any value at all with retention, Montreal would have dumped him already. Dvorak has close to no value and is injured. So adding a B/C prospect to a late 1st isn't enough to beat the other offers Winnipeg will get.
If PLD only wanted Montreal, you'd have a bit more leeway, but with PLD willing to go to multiple teams, a marginal offer isn't going to cut it.
That value wasn't just set by Montreal's fans...it's based on the Horvat's deal.
Dvorak and Beauvillier are almost a perfect match here; Beauvillier is a bit younger, but they're both middle-six forwards, coming off with terms. At the moment of the trade, Beauvillier still had a year and a half at $4.15m, Dvorak at the draft would have two more seasons at $4.45m. Their most productive season are almost identical (18 goals/38 points in 70 games for Dvorak, 18 goals/39 points in 68 games for Beauvillier, both in 2019-20). At the time of the trade, Beauvillier had 9 goals/20 points in 49 games (0.41 ppg) while Dvorak ended up the 2022-23 season with 10goals/28 points in 69 games (0.41 ppg). Dvorak shows 1.46 pp60, same as Beauvillier with NYI at the time of the trade. This holds up by every metrics.
Coming off two great season in the QMJHL (30 goals/100 points in 66 games in 2021-22 followed by 28 goals/110 points in 60 games in 2022-23), Kidney is at the very least on the same level as Aatu Raty in terms of potential. Both were taken in the late 2nd round in the 2021 NHL Draft, and I would argue Kidney would probably go before Raty in a redraft.
Leaving us with the conditionnal 1st (Top-12 protected) acquired in the Horvat's deal. Now today we know that pick ended-up at #17 (which isn't that far from the 23rd offered in this scenario). But at the time, NYI were making a push for the playoffs. VAN took a gamble, and it worked. Good for them (especially since that pick was eventually flipped in the Hronek deal). In this scenario, WPG not only knows exactly what they're getting, whereas VAN could've ended-up with a later pick, they are also getting it THIS year, instead of having to wait at the deadline, to get a conditionnal 2024 1st. But hey, if that's what WPG wants, we can do that to. MTL has CGY's 1st, which is listed here as a 2025, but is in fact a 2024 Top-19 protected 1st. You'd rather gamble like VAN did, we can switch it up.
At the the end of the day, this offer is on-par with what VAN got from Horvat, a player who was outproducing Dubois at the time of the trade, but also a player NYI had a strong feeling they would be able to re-sign. While Dubois could be open to sign with anyone, he did mentioned that it was important for him to CHOSE his next destination. So you can at least expect him to test the UFA market to see what's outhere, which would bring the price down compared to Horvat.
...and if you're not willing to use the Horvat deal as a comparable, we can also use Fiala's and Bjorkstrand's. Although, I'm not sure that would be to WPG's advantage to do so.
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