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Breaking up the core 4

Created by: LegendaryMyGuy
Team: 2023-24 Toronto Maple Leafs
Initial Creation Date: May 18, 2023
Published: May 18, 2023
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Description
In a perfect world the Leafs retool and run it back. However, that seems unfeasible at this point because we are going on year 7 of disappointment. Simply put the lights seem a little too bright for Mitch Marner when it comes to playoff hockey in Toronto. An undeniable talent that would benefit from playing in a smaller hockey market. Regardless of that it is only rational to trade a piece like Marner if the value is reciprocated and provides you an equal opportunity to compete for the cup.

I do think LA is trending towards those early to mid 2010 teams again and have a short window to do so. They need a star to unlock that. Space needs to be made in the backend for guys like Clark and Bjornfoot and the Leafs benefit from a guy like Roy. Vilardi is a great young talent and an RFA that has not been given the best opportunities to fully develop playing behind Iafallo, Moore, Arvidsson and Fiala. Kempe is definitely the hardest sell just given the production relative to the cap hit but I do think Marner garners this type of package. I would not be opposed to Fiala and Roy for Marner but Fiala has a NMC.

As for the other moves it is seemingly clear that both Schenn and Acciari both want to be here whereas ROR does not. Both Schenn and Acciari get raises on short term deals and with the extra cap from shedding the Murray contract in a similar fashion to Mrazek the Leafs look to resolve the 3C hole and I believe Compher is the answer. If that is not possible, looking at depth bottom 6 players like namestikov or barbashev would be acceptable or even looking into the market for a guy like Henrique.

The rest is negligible and can go any which way but I do see Samsonov back with the leafs on a short term deal that transitions into Woll being the goalie of the future.
Free Agent Signings
RFAYEARSCAP HIT
2$900,000
3$4,000,000
3$3,500,000
UFAYEARSCAP HIT
2$1,500,000
2$1,500,000
2$1,400,000
4$4,500,000
Trades
1.
TOR
  1. 2023 2nd round pick (TBL)
CHI
  1. Murray, Matt
  2. 2023 1st round pick (BOS)
2.
DraftRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7
2023
Logo of the TBL
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
2024
Logo of the NYI
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the CHI
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the OTT
2025
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the CHI
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
22$82,500,000$78,294,283$0$0$4,205,717
Left WingCentreRight Wing
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$2,100,000$2,100,000
RW, C, LW
M-NTC
UFA - 3
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$11,640,250$11,640,250
C
NMC
UFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$6,962,366$6,962,366
RW
NMC
UFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$11,000,000$11,000,000
C, LW
NMC
UFA - 2
$3,500,000$3,500,000
RW, C
RFA - 2
Logo of the Los Angeles Kings
$5,500,000$5,500,000
LW, RW
UFA - 3
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$925,000$925,000
LW, RW
RFA - 2
$4,500,000$4,500,000
C, RW
UFA - 5
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$1,500,000$1,500,000
C, RW
UFA - 3
$1,400,000$1,400,000
LW, RW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$900,000$900,000
C, LW
RFA - 2
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$1,150,000$1,150,000
RW, C, LW
UFA - 1
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$7,500,000$7,500,000
LD
NMC
UFA - 7
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$1,500,000$1,500,000
RD
UFA - 3
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$4,000,000$4,000,000
G
UFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$2,000,000$2,000,000
LD/RD
M-NTC
UFA - 2
Logo of the Los Angeles Kings
$3,150,000$3,150,000
RD
UFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$766,667$766,667
G
RFA - 2
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$5,000,000$5,000,000
LD/RD
M-NTC
UFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$1,400,000$1,400,000
RD
RFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$800,000$800,000
LD
UFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$1,100,000$1,100,000
RD
RFA - 2
ScratchesInjured Reserve (IR)Long Term IR (LTIR)
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$5,625,000$5,625,000
LD
M-NTC
UFA - 1

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May 18, 2023 at 12:00 p.m.
#1
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I don't think Marner should be the guy that gets moved.

Matthews as an unknown for re-signing is more of a risk, imagine trading away Marner, and pissing off Matthews and he leaves for nothing, two superstars gone for the price of one.

Marner at least is controlled for 2 years, success with a new grouping could encourage him to stay.
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May 18, 2023 at 12:06 p.m.
#2
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The points Vilardi and Kempe provide is cheaper than that of Marner, and that's not even including how much the Kings need Roy.
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May 18, 2023 at 12:13 p.m.
#3
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The Kings biggest problem right now is cap space. Trading away Kempe and Roy frees up about 9m in cap but getting Marner and Robertson is 13m in cap so they are basically taking on another 4m in cap. They only have about 7m in cap to sign a top 4 LHD and a starting goaltender so if you cut that down to only 4m to do so they would basically only get one or the other not both not to mention Roy leaving would leave big hole on the right side as well. Basically the defense would crumble apart taking on that much cap while creating another problem. So Kings would pass on this trade
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May 18, 2023 at 12:17 p.m.
#4
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Big Cactus
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Quoting: OilersRule
I don't think Marner should be the guy that gets moved.

Matthews as an unknown for re-signing is more of a risk, imagine trading away Marner, and pissing off Matthews and he leaves for nothing, two superstars gone for the price of one.

Marner at least is controlled for 2 years, success with a new grouping could encourage him to stay.


The prospect of Matthews leaving if Marner is traded is definitely one to consider and raises a lot of concern. To your point of shopping Matthews, you would be hard pressed to find a destination in which A. Matthews signs long term and B. That destination having a package to equal the value of a guy like Matthews. Nylander will be undervalued and won't be a player you could trade comfortably and walk away thinking you won that deal. Marner is the only viable option in terms of value he could possibly bring in. The situation here in Toronto is definitely not pretty
May 18, 2023 at 12:26 p.m.
#5
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Marner is worth far more than the return. And they’d be adding a 1st?
May 18, 2023 at 12:50 p.m.
#6
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Big Cactus
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Quoting: capsleafs447
Marner is worth far more than the return. And they’d be adding a 1st?


I definitely think a young RFA with a 60+ point ceiling, a bonafide top 4 defenceman and a 30 goalscorer signed through the next 3 seasons on a very team friendly deal garners a first round pick regardless of Marner being the other piece in the return
May 18, 2023 at 12:55 p.m.
#7
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Big Cactus
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Quoting: tryger
The points Vilardi and Kempe provide is cheaper than that of Marner, and that's not even including how much the Kings need Roy.


Quoting: tryger
The points Vilardi and Kempe provide is cheaper than that of Marner, and that's not even including how much the Kings need Roy.


I think Roy is a very big piece in LA but you have to think with 1 year left and money tied up in the d core and the young guys coming in if management sees it that way. On the front of Vilardi and Kempe I completely agree the contract framework for both those guys is unreal. I was exploring a somewhat reasonable deal for a player of marners calibre. You cannot trade the guy for peanuts like most of the fanbase is
May 18, 2023 at 12:59 p.m.
#8
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Big Cactus
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Quoting: Hckeydude123
The Kings biggest problem right now is cap space. Trading away Kempe and Roy frees up about 9m in cap but getting Marner and Robertson is 13m in cap so they are basically taking on another 4m in cap. They only have about 7m in cap to sign a top 4 LHD and a starting goaltender so if you cut that down to only 4m to do so they would basically only get one or the other not both not to mention Roy leaving would leave big hole on the right side as well. Basically the defense would crumble apart taking on that much cap while creating another problem. So Kings would pass on this trade


I think the kings look to offload that Petersen contract somehow. Maybe through picks or even taking on a ltir contract but that should work to alleviate any cap discrepancy to sign a goalie and d man
May 18, 2023 at 1:11 p.m.
#9
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Quoting: LegendaryMyGuy
The prospect of Matthews leaving if Marner is traded is definitely one to consider and raises a lot of concern. To your point of shopping Matthews, you would be hard pressed to find a destination in which A. Matthews signs long term and B. That destination having a package to equal the value of a guy like Matthews. Nylander will be undervalued and won't be a player you could trade comfortably and walk away thinking you won that deal. Marner is the only viable option in terms of value he could possibly bring in. The situation here in Toronto is definitely not pretty


To the point A - I think Leafs management should talk to Matthews and see what destinations he's interested in, allow the teams and his agent to talk and come to a contract before the trade occurs.

To the point B - Not having to overpay in free agency as a bidding war can be an advantage, and deal with existing contracts (like Calgary having to pay to ship Monahan) could be a positive for both teams, I still think LA would be a good fit, with guys like Durzi-Byfield-Clarke-Turcotte etc... and some picks. Doesn't really affect LA's core, but they get better by trading away futures.

Definitely could be interesting.
May 18, 2023 at 1:40 p.m.
#10
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Big Cactus
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Quoting: OilersRule
To the point A - I think Leafs management should talk to Matthews and see what destinations he's interested in, allow the teams and his agent to talk and come to a contract before the trade occurs.

To the point B - Not having to overpay in free agency as a bidding war can be an advantage, and deal with existing contracts (like Calgary having to pay to ship Monahan) could be a positive for both teams, I still think LA would be a good fit, with guys like Durzi-Byfield-Clarke-Turcotte etc... and some picks. Doesn't really affect LA's core, but they get better by trading away futures.

Definitely could be interesting.


If you are trading Matthews for guys like Durzi, Byfield, Clarke and Turcotte and some picks or a similar package your window to "win now" has undoubtedly closed with no true foresight on how long it will take to contend again. Turcotte and Clark are effectively nothing right now, Durzi has struggled and does not look like more than a fringe top 4 and Byfield has been solid but he's not Auston Matthews. If this is the return for a guy at his worst is an 85 point two way center you might as well prep for the tank again and move off Marner and Nylander as well
May 18, 2023 at 2:06 p.m.
#11
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I have loved the dozens of ACGMs posted by Toronto stalwarts in the past week or so in which they admit, intentionally or not, explicitly or not, that what they really want NOW is to have their team constructed from the bottom up like Los Angeles is doing, and not from the top down like permanent also-rans Toronto and Edmonton have.

Los Angeles will have no trouble re-upping Matt Roy in 2024 when Kopitar's and Petersen's cap hits come off the books, freeing up $14 million plus the cap rise. Gee, I wonder who might be signing a seven-year, $100 million contract then?
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May 18, 2023 at 2:35 p.m.
#12
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Quoting: LegendaryMyGuy
If you are trading Matthews for guys like Durzi, Byfield, Clarke and Turcotte and some picks or a similar package your window to "win now" has undoubtedly closed with no true foresight on how long it will take to contend again. Turcotte and Clark are effectively nothing right now, Durzi has struggled and does not look like more than a fringe top 4 and Byfield has been solid but he's not Auston Matthews. If this is the return for a guy at his worst is an 85 point two way center you might as well prep for the tank again and move off Marner and Nylander as well


All a matter of perspective I guess.

5-7 years of trying to run the same roster to no avail, no legitimate cap room to sign existing UFA/RFA's (Bunting, Acciari, O'Reilly, Kerfoot, Kampf, Samsonov, Schenn, Holl, Gustafsson) and no real solid prospects in the system to replace those guys on ELC's

Their window is all but closed at this point.

The question shouldn't be, "can they win a cup next year with the same roster who's failed the previous 5 years to piece together any manageable run?", it should be "How do they ensure they come out of this with pieces in place to not take a step back with upcoming teams with solid prospect pools like Detroit, Ottawa or Montreal"

a roster of

Knies - Tavares - Nylander
Bunting - O'Reilly - Marner
Robertson - Byfield - Acciari
Jarnkrok - Kampf - Lafferty

Likely has a better chance at performing than the current roster, meanwhile stocking the system with a few pieces ie. Turcotte/Clarke or whatever 1st rd picks they get.

Obviously it doesn't have to be LA, but the question remains the same, can they afford to take the chance of losing people for nothing, or getting limited by NMC.... because that scenario would be 1000x worse than the one proposed.
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