I'm not a Leafs fan, but their offseason is shaping up to be a pretty fascinating one, so I thought I'd take a crack at it.
The Leafs are looking at big changes this summer. Most immediately is the front office situation, but the ripple effects will extend throughout the organization. There is a distinct possibility the core four will be broken up, as their combined cap hits are too expensive to adequately round out the rest of the roster.
Looking at each individually, Tavares has a NMC that he's not waiving (he's already said as much). He's staying. Matthews is the best player and cornerstone of the group, and the Leafs will prioritize extending him. He likely stays as well. Nylander has the best value contract of the group, so trading him to upgrade the roster elsewhere likely will end up being a net zero. I think he sticks around. That leaves Marner.
Marner is an elite playmaking RW who is also a borderline Selke-caliber defender. He's a top tier player. However, he also has a $10.9M cap hit. It may ultimately end up being in the Leafs' best interest to turn Marner and the cap space he occupies into multiple players who, while individually are not on Marner's level, combined can have a bigger impact on the roster. It has been reported that Toronto is looking for a "top-pairing defenseman" as the centerpiece of any Marner return. However, Marner is two years from free agency. Any team looking to acquire him is looking to win as well, so they won't be too eager to gut their roster. That makes a trade difficult. However, what may work is trading Marner to a contending team for primarily futures, and then flipping those futures to a rebuilding team to get the immediate contributors the Leafs desire.
That's the scenario I explored here. I've seen some Carolina fans promoting a futures-based package for Marner, and the fit seems pretty solid. Carolina has the cap room to absorb him and the future assets to trade to Toronto, meaning they can upgrade their roster in a major way to push for the cup without removing key contributors already on the team. The only roster player I traded away from the Hurricanes is Teräväinen, whose spot would be upgraded by Marner. Toronto then flips those futures to Philadelphia for Konecny, a player previously linked to the Leafs and can fill Marner's spot on the RW, and Provorov, who can provide the defensive support Toronto is looking for.
For free agents, I think the Leafs have to find a way to keep O'Reilly and Schenn, given how critical they were down the stretch. Acciari and ZAR are quality bottom six pieces, so I brought them back as well. In net, Samsonov is locked up to form a tandem with Woll, and Murray is offloaded.
As always, let me know your thoughts! Helpful feedback is appreciated! Cheers!
I borrowed the framework of this trade from a Carolina fan's ACGM. I replaced one of the first round picks with Teräväinen, but kept the rest of the return futures-based.
https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/4184801
The idea here is that Philly is staring down the barrel of a rebuild and Konecny and Provorov's contracts will be up before they are ready to compete again. As such, they'd probably want any return for them to be more futures-based. Toronto essentially flips many of the future assets they got for Marner to a team looking for that type of return in exchange for a quality defenseman and winger.
Modeled after the Mrazek trade from last year; Toronto gets rid of Murray's cap hit and moves down a few spots, San Jose gets a goalie option for next year and moves up in a deep draft. Note: this could be any team if the Sharks aren't interested. Wishing the best for Murray, but if his concussion issues linger, Toronto could alternatively send him to Robidas Island.
There’s one massive difference in the Mrazek to Chicago trade than the Murray to San Jose trade: San Jose doesn’t need the cap, Chicago did. San Jose has no reason to take on Murray with his risk for this
You want Teuvo instead of the 1st? That's fine. No retention. Otherwise, put the 1st back in and drop Teuvo. Carolina isn't in the business of paying players to play against it. The entire point of my ACGM was to prove it HAS to be futures for this to work for Carolina
The Hurricanes trade makes sense for the teams without retaining. No need for Carolina to do that.
However the Philadelphia trade doesn't make sense. Koncecy the Leafs would love, but would MUCH rather upgrade the D via UFA. We moved Sandin at the deadline last year because our LHD is set for the next year with McCabe, Reilly and Gio.
San Jose also probably isn't interested in Murrary, if we have the cap room I would likely keep him.
Late 1sts aren't getting our top D man and top winger.
Quoting: DH28Hockey
IMO regarding the Philly trade:
Take out the 2024 2nd and add Murray and the Boston 1st
The 2nd quote is totally wrong lol. That trade barely gets TK let alone Provy and if you thrown in Murray you’re throwing in another 1st just to dump him but you still haven’t even paid for Provy lol this trade is just all wrong and gets shut down easily
The 2nd quote is totally wrong lol. That trade barely gets TK let alone Provy and if you thrown in Murray you’re throwing in another 1st just to dump him but you still haven’t even paid for Provy lol this trade is just all wrong and gets shut down easily
I don't know what to tell you man, you post on every single Flyers trade basically just telling people why their trade is bad when the reality is you're overvaluing the Flyers assets 90% of the time
I don't know what to tell you man, you post on every single Flyers trade basically just telling people why their trade is bad when the reality is you're overvaluing the Flyers assets 90% of the time
Quoting: DH28Hockey
I don't know what to tell you man, you post on every single Flyers trade basically just telling people why their trade is bad when the reality is you're overvaluing the Flyers assets 90% of the time
I mean no, everyone just thinks they are going to bend over the Flyers and fleece them when in reality they don’t have to move anyone and can just wait til a deadline for when a team gets desperate and overpays them like what happens for players at every single deadline. TK will have a dozen teams asking about him and even more will again at the deadline if he isn’t moved. Danny can easily create a bidding war and get someone to up their offer and overpay. With retention, you can do the same for Provy. People so easily forget that there was a bidding war for Risto where 6 GMs were reported to have offered 1st round picks for Risto. If Risto can get a bidding war started over him then you can 100% create one for TK and Provy if done the right way. You all look at everything so straight on and not how hockey actually works behind the scenes, people overpay for players all the time Danny might as well wait until someone is ready to do that for his players
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