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Keeping the Core 4

Created by: NickC1988
Team: 2023-24 Toronto Maple Leafs
Initial Creation Date: May 18, 2023
Published: May 19, 2023
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Description
It's not happening as quick as you like, but you can't constantly change a roster over and over and expect different results in the playoffs. Players need time to mature, mesh, and grow from prior experiences. Ovechkin won a cup after 13 years in the league. McDavid and Draisaitl are still chasing it, it's not always quick like Chicago and Pittsburgh.

You won't get fair value for any of the core 4 in a trade, Matthews wants to stay, Nylander wants to stay. A lot of teams didn't make it as far as they would've liked (COL, EDM, NYR) yet they won't be making the extreme moves everyone wants the Leafs to make.

Whether you blame Dubas or not, he is working a job a lot of users on this site DREAM to obtain and yet, he's debating stepping away because he's stressed out and mentally drained. You can't say he doesn't care or doesn't want to win. That guy is an elite GM in this league.

The players underperformed, absolutely, but you won't find any better options via trade, I can promise you that.

You know what the beauty of this situation is? Even if this team craps the bed this season, however unlikely that is, Nylander, Brodie, Matthews, and Lafferty are all pending UFAs and you could recoup ALL the draft picks you traded away these past 2-3 years in one deadline. Yes, that means a "rebuild" or "retool" whatever you want to call it. But at least you're getting a greater return that will help the team long term.
Free Agent Signings
RFAYEARSCAP HIT
1$4,000,000
1$825,000
1$825,000
UFAYEARSCAP HIT
2$1,750,000
1$2,000,000
1$2,750,000
2$1,500,000
Trades
1.
TOR
  1. 2023 3rd round pick (CHI)
CHI
  1. Murray, Matt
  2. Muzzin, Jake
  3. 2023 1st round pick (BOS)
2.
WPG
  1. Hirvonen, Roni
  2. Niemelä, Topi
  3. 2024 1st round pick (TOR)
DraftRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7
2023
Logo of the CHI
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
2024
Logo of the NYI
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the CHI
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the OTT
2025
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the CHI
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
22$83,500,000$82,897,283$0$0$602,717
Left WingCentreRight Wing
Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
$6,000,000$6,000,000
RW, LW
M-NTC
UFA - 2
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$11,640,250$11,640,250
C
NMC
UFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$10,903,000$10,903,000
RW
NMC
UFA - 2
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$925,000$925,000
LW, RW
RFA - 2
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$11,000,000$11,000,000
C, LW
NMC
UFA - 2
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$6,962,366$6,962,366
RW
NMC
UFA - 1
$2,000,000$2,000,000
LW, RW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$825,000$825,000
C, LW
RFA - 2
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$1,150,000$1,150,000
RW, C, LW
UFA - 1
$2,750,000$2,750,000
LW
UFA - 6
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$1,500,000$1,500,000
C
UFA - 4
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$2,100,000$2,100,000
RW, C, LW
M-NTC
UFA - 3
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$7,500,000$7,500,000
LD
NMC
UFA - 7
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$1,750,000$1,750,000
RD
UFA - 3
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$4,000,000$4,000,000
G
UFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$2,000,000$2,000,000
LD/RD
M-NTC
UFA - 2
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$1,400,000$1,400,000
RD
RFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$766,667$766,667
G
RFA - 2
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$5,000,000$5,000,000
LD/RD
M-NTC
UFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$1,100,000$1,100,000
RD
RFA - 2
ScratchesInjured Reserve (IR)Long Term IR (LTIR)
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$800,000$800,000
LD
UFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$825,000$825,000
LW, C
RFA - 2

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May 19, 2023 at 12:15 a.m.
#1
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Thing is..they're going to make the playoffs, so the recouping assets isn't a factor.
Thing about all the teams you mentioned is that they didn't have half the salary cap locked up in 4 players. The $$ were more spread throughout the lineup. How long do you roll out the same lineup and see them go out the same way? You've got enough proof that the concept doesn't work.
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May 19, 2023 at 12:24 a.m.
#2
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Quoting: Rangsey
Thing is..they're going to make the playoffs, so the recouping assets isn't a factor.
Thing about all the teams you mentioned is that they didn't have half the salary cap locked up in 4 players. The $$ were more spread throughout the lineup. How long do you roll out the same lineup and see them go out the same way? You've got enough proof that the concept doesn't work.


Edmonton has $36M in Nurse, McDavid, Ekholm and Draisaitl. COL is about to have $40M in Nichushkin, Rantanen, Mackinnon and Makar. NYR have $38M in Trouba, Zibanejad, Panarin, and Fox.

If the Leafs decide to move somebody in the core 4, they'll be significantly worse next season. At that point you might as well rebuild around Knies/Liljegren/Woll because you'll just be wasting the prime years of whoever isn't traded.
May 19, 2023 at 12:32 a.m.
#3
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Quoting: NickC1988
Edmonton has $36M in Nurse, McDavid, Ekholm and Draisaitl. COL is about to have $40M in Nichushkin, Rantanen, Mackinnon and Makar. NYR have $38M in Trouba, Zibanejad, Panarin, and Fox.

If the Leafs decide to move somebody in the core 4, they'll be significantly worse next season. At that point you might as well rebuild around Knies/Liljegren/Woll because you'll just be wasting the prime years of whoever isn't traded.


Edmonton hasn't won anything. Neither have New York.

Colorado won before the MacKinnon extension. Toronto have just been failing longer with the same players. Surely you have yo switch it up. Theyve rolled over with no fight year after year. Regardless who the supporting cast is.
You're waisting their primes now.
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May 19, 2023 at 1:11 a.m.
#4
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Quoting: Rangsey
Edmonton hasn't won anything. Neither have New York.

Colorado won before the MacKinnon extension. Toronto have just been failing longer with the same players. Surely you have yo switch it up. Theyve rolled over with no fight year after year. Regardless who the supporting cast is.
You're waisting their primes now.


They still have lots of years though. If your argument is the 40M to 4 fwds issue, then just wait a couple years for Tavares to be gone. Willy, Mitch, and Auston will still have many good years. Maybe not as many as we wanted, but still a good and long chance to win a cup.
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May 19, 2023 at 1:14 a.m.
#5
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Funny enough, I think the worst thing that happened to our team was being too good too early. Had we not made the playoffs for the first 2 years of the Matthews era, the expectations of the team to win every year (even though the kids weren’t ready until last year) and “trade the core” narrative wouldn’t exist. We’d probably have a shot at a true #1 d man, too.
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May 19, 2023 at 3:06 a.m.
#6
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That's a lot of cap hit Chicago is taking on for a late 1st, doubt a 3rd goes back to Toronto....maybe a 4th at best
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May 19, 2023 at 4:03 a.m.
#7
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Quoting: Rangsey
Edmonton hasn't won anything. Neither have New York.

Colorado won before the MacKinnon extension. Toronto have just been failing longer with the same players. Surely you have yo switch it up. Theyve rolled over with no fight year after year. Regardless who the supporting cast is.
You're waisting their primes now.


The core 4 have been together for 5-years, the first one Matthews and Marner were sophomores in the league, so I don't think you can hold that against them really. So, in 4-years they lost to two underdogs (their Kryptonite), and to two good teams in the other two. The final result though in the end is 0/4 (0/5). During that time

WSH, STL, TBx2, COL, (CAR/DAL/FLR/VGK) would have won the Cup.

From those who won already teams:
WSH - won the cup, 1st round exit, 1st round, 1st round, and missed this last one. The core won at the end of their cup window, and now they are trying to get younger.
STL - missed playoffs, won the cup, 1st round, 1st round, 2nd round, Missed playoffs. The old guard are done and now they are shifting towards a younger core.
TB - 1st round exit, Cup, Cup, finals, 1st round exit. They are very much in their Cup window still.
COL - 1st round, 2nd round, 2nd round, 2nd round, Cup, 1st round exit. They are very much still in their Cup window as well.

Only teams among them to have a change in their core are VGK, FLR, DAL, and to some extent COL. DAL and COL was through natural progression mostly, younger players that were drafted taking over from/adding to the previous core. VGK just went and got themselves superstars.

So, the Leafs just need to wait for a natural turnover (Tavares contract expiring), the problem that they have now though is they don't have young enough dmen to take over their aging group, and they don't got too much in the pipeline. Should they consider changing their core? Maybe, but it depends on what the offers are, there is no sense in trading Matthews, Marner or Nylander at a discounted rate.
May 19, 2023 at 4:29 a.m.
#8
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Quoting: NickC1988
Edmonton has $36M in Nurse, McDavid, Ekholm and Draisaitl. COL is about to have $40M in Nichushkin, Rantanen, Mackinnon and Makar. NYR have $38M in Trouba, Zibanejad, Panarin, and Fox.

If the Leafs decide to move somebody in the core 4, they'll be significantly worse next season. At that point you might as well rebuild around Knies/Liljegren/Woll because you'll just be wasting the prime years of whoever isn't traded.


Big difference in even your examples is that, you have a spread of big salaries, TOR has all 4 big salaries at forward, PIT has Croisby, Letang, Malkin AND Fleury, CHI has Toews, Seabrook, etc....

And you have a lot of faith in the limited youngsters on the roster to develop into key roles (liljegren was a healthy scratch half the playoffs, Woll might be an NHLer, he might not (Rochester tuned him up in AHL playoffs with a very strong veteran team in front of him), and Knies might be a top 6 guy, but he might also be a good 3LW), but behind them theres very little on the way, and few picks over the next 3 years.
May 19, 2023 at 4:53 a.m.
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Quoting: Hammerwise
Big difference in even your examples is that, you have a spread of big salaries, TOR has all 4 big salaries at forward, PIT has Croisby, Letang, Malkin AND Fleury, CHI has Toews, Seabrook, etc....

And you have a lot of faith in the limited youngsters on the roster to develop into key roles (liljegren was a healthy scratch half the playoffs, Woll might be an NHLer, he might not (Rochester tuned him up in AHL playoffs with a very strong veteran team in front of him), and Knies might be a top 6 guy, but he might also be a good 3LW), but behind them theres very little on the way, and few picks over the next 3 years.


That's why the Leafs cant afford to lose Matthews, Marner or Nylander without getting a comparable player. Maybe it's time to tame expectations and expect 2 to 3 years of mediocrity. The core 4 will then be Matthews, Marner, Nylander and Reilly.
May 19, 2023 at 4:58 a.m.
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Edited May 19, 2023 at 5:09 a.m.
The Leafs dont have a lot of youth, they havent really had a true rookie forward become a full timer for a few seasons now. Sandin is gone and Liljegren was a healthy scratch in the playoffs/Timmins didnt dress at all. Knies is here, but the only other high end prospects are either struggling/failing (Amirov/Robertson), looking iffy/midlevel/more likely AHLers (Steeves/SDA) or a few years away (Niemala/Hirvonen) but its a real thin group of youngsters, and one reason the Leafs are in cap trouble annually, not enough ELC on the roster.

Alot of picks are gone over the next 3 years. So overall there isn;t a large or good group of youngsters they have to fill KEY roles, and due to the lack of picks that probably gets worse

Saying that, Leafs window is NOW. They have tried the 4 forwards approach and if you're looking for change it certainly isnt the usual tinkering of bargain basement UFAs for the bottom 6, and the team is even more limited now when it comes to TDL assets. The defense is reaching implosion with Giordano, Brodie filling KEY top 6 roles and nearing retirement.

So if the Leafs do change, it has to start with one of the big 4, and I just dont think you get the value for Tavares (partly his contract, his age, his speed and his declining 2 way game), so really its just the 3

Problems are:

You need to move them this offseason, they carry a huge cap hit at TDL, most contenders wont have that kind of space left or be looking at paying market value/long term re-signing, BUT most importantly, if you deal one of them at TDL you are pretty much tanking in the year. Why would the leafs, who'll be a contender, suddenly tank their own playoff hopes. If they are kept thru 23-24, the UFA rights wont get back as good a package, and Marner on last yr will have a slightly lesser value,
The leafs window is now, so any of the big 4 you move, you need a suitable, albeit lesser replacement
you're never going to get a Marner for a Marner or a Matthews for a Matthews. (you might get 2-4 assets that help you build a TEAM)

So for example, (and just an rough one), if CGY offered top 6 RW replacement Toffoli, solid 20+ goal scorer but expiring UFA and a solid top 4 RD Tanev (if he wasnt a UFA too) and a 1st and a bit more for expiring Nylander, isnt the best offer, but it addresses the short term loss of Nylander with toffoli, provides another KEY piece elsewhere in the team and replaces some of the draft capitol we lack, it'd be worth thinking about, because theoretically it could make the leafs a better team, even though they're moving the best player. Or (again rough example at best) say PHI offers a bunch of young guys like C Morgan Frost, RW prospect Bobby Brink, RW Owen Tippett and LD prospect Adam Ginning for Marner, you get THEORETICALLY a 2C, A 2RW, two prospects who are the best at the position in this orgainzation AND approx 5mil in cap space.
May 19, 2023 at 5:04 a.m.
#11
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Quoting: GMBL
That's why the Leafs cant afford to lose Matthews, Marner or Nylander without getting a comparable player. Maybe it's time to tame expectations and expect 2 to 3 years of mediocrity. The core 4 will then be Matthews, Marner, Nylander and Reilly.


I just dont see the internal upgrades needed, and with the big UFAs, they wont resign cheaply for mediocrity, and once again it'll be the same issue, good contender, lacking depth, trading prospects/picks for cup runs that end the same way. The only thing happening in 2-3 yrs time is that the big guys will be older, eating just as much a % of the cap, a defense hitting retirement and even less KEY prospects on the way.

Yeah, I just dont think you get a marner for a marner or a matthews for a matthews, I think based on the current team, and its limited key prospects and picks, a package might be better. Say Tkachuk for example, and bear in mind he was coming off an all around career year and was just a RFA, he got a top 6 forward and a top 4 defenseman and picks (albeit the players were expiring UFAs). Tkachuk is/was the best player in that deal hands down. I dont think you're going to get a player close to a matthews or marner in trade but you might get a slight downgrade as a replacement AND multiple pieces that build a better team.

Ultimately its been 4-5 seasons of this core and the team can't progress. Now that they have fewer prospects and picks, I think they're best chance has just passed. They will remain a contender true with those four, but I think they lack the supporting cast, cap flexibility, key prospects and picks to improve upon their chances this year. And while the cap WILL jump in 24-25 there still isnt enough to resign the big 4, keep the quality RFAs AND replace the Key aging defense hitting UFA/retirement.
May 19, 2023 at 5:45 a.m.
#12
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Blackhawks accept.
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May 19, 2023 at 7:40 a.m.
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Quoting: Hammerwise
I just dont see the internal upgrades needed, and with the big UFAs, they wont resign cheaply for mediocrity, and once again it'll be the same issue, good contender, lacking depth, trading prospects/picks for cup runs that end the same way. The only thing happening in 2-3 yrs time is that the big guys will be older, eating just as much a % of the cap, a defense hitting retirement and even less KEY prospects on the way.

Yeah, I just dont think you get a marner for a marner or a matthews for a matthews, I think based on the current team, and its limited key prospects and picks, a package might be better. Say Tkachuk for example, and bear in mind he was coming off an all around career year and was just a RFA, he got a top 6 forward and a top 4 defenseman and picks (albeit the players were expiring UFAs). Tkachuk is/was the best player in that deal hands down. I dont think you're going to get a player close to a matthews or marner in trade but you might get a slight downgrade as a replacement AND multiple pieces that build a better team.

Ultimately its been 4-5 seasons of this core and the team can't progress. Now that they have fewer prospects and picks, I think they're best chance has just passed. They will remain a contender true with those four, but I think they lack the supporting cast, cap flexibility, key prospects and picks to improve upon their chances this year. And while the cap WILL jump in 24-25 there still isnt enough to resign the big 4, keep the quality RFAs AND replace the Key aging defense hitting UFA/retirement.


We will see how the Tkachuk trade turns out for CGY. Huberdeau was basically set up for failure in Sutter's system. Now say it's more of the same in CGY, then that should serve as a cautionary tale for the Leafs who could end up out of the playoffs and stay there, there are several Atlantic teams on the rise.

If Matthews, Marner, Nylander+Reilly are taking 40-43M, they will be able to field a competitive team still as the cap rises. Sure, the cap is going up for everyone but with this group, so far at least, they have guaranteed a playoff berth for the Leafs. If you look at it as cup/no cup there has been no progress, but if you look at each variation of the team, there has been progress in the last two years. That being said I wouldn't be surprised if they plateau for a year or two. So, yes they should entertain offers on their core but they shouldn't make a panic move.

The Stanley Cup is a tough trophy to win, the President Trophy winners went out in the 1st round, 3/4 of last years final four including the Champs and Finalists went out in the 1st round, and the 4th went out in the 2nd. The final 4 from this year compromise of a team that missed the playoffs, one that lost in the 1st round and two that lost in the second round.
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May 19, 2023 at 7:58 a.m.
#14
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Quoting: GMBL
We will see how the Tkachuk trade turns out for CGY. Huberdeau was basically set up for failure in Sutter's system. Now say it's more of the same in CGY, then that should serve as a cautionary tale for the Leafs who could end up out of the playoffs and stay there, there are several Atlantic teams on the rise.

If Matthews, Marner, Nylander+Reilly are taking 40-43M, they will be able to field a competitive team still as the cap rises. Sure, the cap is going up for everyone but with this group, so far at least, they have guaranteed a playoff berth for the Leafs. If you look at it as cup/no cup there has been no progress, but if you look at each variation of the team, there has been progress in the last two years. That being said I wouldn't be surprised if they plateau for a year or two. So, yes they should entertain offers on their core but they shouldn't make a panic move.

The Stanley Cup is a tough trophy to win, the President Trophy winners went out in the 1st round, 3/4 of last years final four including the Champs and Finalists went out in the 1st round, and the 4th went out in the 2nd. The final 4 from this year compromise of a team that missed the playoffs, one that lost in the 1st round and two that lost in the second round.


Problem is after 19 years of not making the playoffs or not making it out of the first round, when they are a perenial regular season contender, you cant just keep telling the fans to stay the course.

The idea that the leafs will just ride out tavares contract and then be blessed with oodles of cap space, or that all of the prospects will overachieve and hit are both closer to pipe dreams than reality.

UFAs like Matthews and Nylander will both be in line for raises probably in the 3mil range or more, Marner hits UFA when the cap jumps so he'll get 3mil or more so suddenly that four of marner, matthews, reilly, and nylander will be closer to 46-48mil on a cap of 90mil as opposed to 41mil on a cap of 83mil on a team that lacks high end prospects and picks, so I'm not sure that staying the course, should be the course.

If this was a 1st, 2nd or 3rd post season they underachieved as a group maybe I'd be more willing to have another go, but looking at that defense, another year of unreliable goalkeeping management, the lack of high end prospects, and the lack of picks, I think something has to change. Yes, the playoffs are tough, but all those teams that are out have either won it recently or made a serious threat to in recent years.

The Leafs will be competitive and will be a contender, but theres a reason they are an annual laughingstock. Getting one win in the second round is TOO low a bar IMO, for a team as talented as the Leafs, that contend every regular season. And I dont blame it on the big 4 forwards or reilly, its really about the entire team structure, from the cap to the icetime, the stubborn refusal to evaluate or acquire quality goaltending talent, and the continual and annual tinkering or bargain basement shopping to fix things within the team that pop up year after year, (such as grit, toughness, two way forwards, bottom 6 offense, stay at home/physical defenders).

I think the example of Dubas really throwing so many picks out there at the deadline shows that Dubas, Shanahan, Keefe and leaf fans really wanted and NEEDED it this year. The fact that Dubas went out acquired THREE defenders at the TDL or that Keefe dressed 7 defensemen and that the only young defenders Liljegren was a healthy scratch for half the playoffs and Timmins didnt dress at all, doesn;t bode well for what the leafs need to succeed in the playoffs or moving forward into next year, ignoring the fact that both those guys werent deemed good enough now.

The cap might be growing but so will the big 4 salaries, so the % of the pie they take will remain constant, as will the lack of quality depth, which will join a smaller pool of prospects/picks they now possess. The status quo has been tried and isnt working.
May 19, 2023 at 8:32 a.m.
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Quoting: Hammerwise
Problem is after 19 years of not making the playoffs or not making it out of the first round, when they are a perenial regular season contender, you cant just keep telling the fans to stay the course.

The idea that the leafs will just ride out tavares contract and then be blessed with oodles of cap space, or that all of the prospects will overachieve and hit are both closer to pipe dreams than reality.

UFAs like Matthews and Nylander will both be in line for raises probably in the 3mil range or more, Marner hits UFA when the cap jumps so he'll get 3mil or more so suddenly that four of marner, matthews, reilly, and nylander will be closer to 46-48mil on a cap of 90mil as opposed to 41mil on a cap of 83mil on a team that lacks high end prospects and picks, so I'm not sure that staying the course, should be the course.

If this was a 1st, 2nd or 3rd post season they underachieved as a group maybe I'd be more willing to have another go, but looking at that defense, another year of unreliable goalkeeping management, the lack of high end prospects, and the lack of picks, I think something has to change. Yes, the playoffs are tough, but all those teams that are out have either won it recently or made a serious threat to in recent years.

The Leafs will be competitive and will be a contender, but theres a reason they are an annual laughingstock. Getting one win in the second round is TOO low a bar IMO, for a team as talented as the Leafs, that contend every regular season. And I dont blame it on the big 4 forwards or reilly, its really about the entire team structure, from the cap to the icetime, the stubborn refusal to evaluate or acquire quality goaltending talent, and the continual and annual tinkering or bargain basement shopping to fix things within the team that pop up year after year, (such as grit, toughness, two way forwards, bottom 6 offense, stay at home/physical defenders).

I think the example of Dubas really throwing so many picks out there at the deadline shows that Dubas, Shanahan, Keefe and leaf fans really wanted and NEEDED it this year. The fact that Dubas went out acquired THREE defenders at the TDL or that Keefe dressed 7 defensemen and that the only young defenders Liljegren was a healthy scratch for half the playoffs and Timmins didnt dress at all, doesn;t bode well for what the leafs need to succeed in the playoffs or moving forward into next year, ignoring the fact that both those guys werent deemed good enough now.

The cap might be growing but so will the big 4 salaries, so the % of the pie they take will remain constant, as will the lack of quality depth, which will join a smaller pool of prospects/picks they now possess. The status quo has been tried and isnt working.


Why stop at 19 years of failure? I know Leaf fans really want the drought to end but if the Organization is putting pressure on management and players to win in 4-5 years, the turnover of the core in Toronto will likely be at a high rate. Look at how long it took Stamkos and Hedman to win their first cup, or MacKinnon or Ovechkin or the Blues group, not everyone can be like the Chi and Pitt groups, in fact that is pretty rare.

Finally, the Leafs did put a strong team together and they changed 1/3 of their team, it didn't work. Other than the core+Riell, a lot of the players haven't been around the team long. There is Kerfoot and Holl who are likely gone, so there is going to be change and has been change. Just not in the core, yet. A second round defeat isn't ideal but it is a different result technically.
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May 23, 2023 at 11:06 p.m.
#16
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Quoting: Hammerwise
The Leafs dont have a lot of youth, they havent really had a true rookie forward become a full timer for a few seasons now. Sandin is gone and Liljegren was a healthy scratch in the playoffs/Timmins didnt dress at all. Knies is here, but the only other high end prospects are either struggling/failing (Amirov/Robertson), looking iffy/midlevel/more likely AHLers (Steeves/SDA) or a few years away (Niemala/Hirvonen) but its a real thin group of youngsters, and one reason the Leafs are in cap trouble annually, not enough ELC on the roster.

Alot of picks are gone over the next 3 years. So overall there isn;t a large or good group of youngsters they have to fill KEY roles, and due to the lack of picks that probably gets worse

Saying that, Leafs window is NOW. They have tried the 4 forwards approach and if you're looking for change it certainly isnt the usual tinkering of bargain basement UFAs for the bottom 6, and the team is even more limited now when it comes to TDL assets. The defense is reaching implosion with Giordano, Brodie filling KEY top 6 roles and nearing retirement.

So if the Leafs do change, it has to start with one of the big 4, and I just dont think you get the value for Tavares (partly his contract, his age, his speed and his declining 2 way game), so really its just the 3

Problems are:

You need to move them this offseason, they carry a huge cap hit at TDL, most contenders wont have that kind of space left or be looking at paying market value/long term re-signing, BUT most importantly, if you deal one of them at TDL you are pretty much tanking in the year. Why would the leafs, who'll be a contender, suddenly tank their own playoff hopes. If they are kept thru 23-24, the UFA rights wont get back as good a package, and Marner on last yr will have a slightly lesser value,
The leafs window is now, so any of the big 4 you move, you need a suitable, albeit lesser replacement
you're never going to get a Marner for a Marner or a Matthews for a Matthews. (you might get 2-4 assets that help you build a TEAM)

So for example, (and just an rough one), if CGY offered top 6 RW replacement Toffoli, solid 20+ goal scorer but expiring UFA and a solid top 4 RD Tanev (if he wasnt a UFA too) and a 1st and a bit more for expiring Nylander, isnt the best offer, but it addresses the short term loss of Nylander with toffoli, provides another KEY piece elsewhere in the team and replaces some of the draft capitol we lack, it'd be worth thinking about, because theoretically it could make the leafs a better team, even though they're moving the best player. Or (again rough example at best) say PHI offers a bunch of young guys like C Morgan Frost, RW prospect Bobby Brink, RW Owen Tippett and LD prospect Adam Ginning for Marner, you get THEORETICALLY a 2C, A 2RW, two prospects who are the best at the position in this orgainzation AND approx 5mil in cap space.


I appreciate your thorough response. I get where you're coming from, but I firmly believe the CGY/FLA trade is a one-off that will never happen (at least in that magnitude) again. GMs are going to be much more cautious about big trades after that and for good reason. If you go through the league, there's a slim amount of teams actually looking to trade for a superstar piece like the Tkachuk deal. Maybe the Kings and Kraken consider trading some depth in for Marner/Nylander? Maybe Nashville? Carolina? Surely you wouldn't trade with Buffalo? I dunno, just scanning the teams in the league and there's few teams that even make a little sense.
Hammerwise liked this.
May 24, 2023 at 5:47 a.m.
#17
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Joined: Aug. 2018
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Quoting: NickC1988
I appreciate your thorough response. I get where you're coming from, but I firmly believe the CGY/FLA trade is a one-off that will never happen (at least in that magnitude) again. GMs are going to be much more cautious about big trades after that and for good reason. If you go through the league, there's a slim amount of teams actually looking to trade for a superstar piece like the Tkachuk deal. Maybe the Kings and Kraken consider trading some depth in for Marner/Nylander? Maybe Nashville? Carolina? Surely you wouldn't trade with Buffalo? I dunno, just scanning the teams in the league and there's few teams that even make a little sense.


Probably right on, sure the leafs top 4 are good and some of the best in the league, but Toronto isnt tearing it down so they;ll want capable replacements, not just futures, theres few teams that have 11 mil free without giving back quite a bit of cap (like i said in example something like a CGY with Toffoli and Tanev), the general belief right now is the big 4 have attitude/belief/whatever issues, and lastly it comes to contract status, very difficult to ignore the pending UFA status when presenting a fair offer.

I cant see Leafs packing it in when they are an annual regular season contender, and with a weak prospect pool, even if they get back futures, they would have to declare a rebuild and most of their players outside the big 4 dont have tons of value, I just can;t see it. Maybe 1 of the big 4 moves, but then its back to the above: (does a marner or a nylander get back enough NOW and LATER value for the Leafs).

I cant see Matthews or Nylander not asking for a NTC/NTM and with the rise of the cap, Matthews will want 14 or 15 million and Nylander will want 10, and any trading team will have to have that extension (with them) for Leafs to get equal value back. Doubt theyd do it, but for example PHI might part with TK or Couturier (if healthy) for Marner or Nylander, but the other contract wont be as quality (Ristolinen? DeAngelo? Atkinson)...don;t know but it would keep TOR still good, downgraded at 1 position, potentially upgraded at 2 positions, I just dont see it
 
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