Horrible trade for us in the WSH deal

Pens decline. 2023 1st isn't on the table and no interest in Vladar.

That garbage hardly gets Lindholm let alone adding Toffoli and Weegar to the deal, Kusnetsov is a locker room cancer. Mantha is a lazy bum only the 8th overall pick has any value. Total trash offer for Calgary for 3 very good players.

Pens and Devils don't do those deals. Flames absolutely do not do third deal.

Caps pass. Their whole thing is getting younger and faster. CGY does the opposite.

Man that’s a horrible trade for Washington. Lindholm has been a disappointment lately. He and Kuznetsov are close to a wash. Weegar, with his history of absolutely boneheaded plays in big games certainly isn’t worth much. He and Mantha are close value-wise. That leaves Toffoli and he is nowhere near worth the 8th Overall pick. Top 10 Picks are never traded in the Salary Cap era and this horrible trade isn’t any reason for Washington to consider trading theirs. This makes the Caps older, more expensive, and worse overall. No Thanks.

Kuzy's an idiot got caught doing coke, but he's not a locker room cancer. It's really obnoxious how often people just jump from one to the other, but all indications are that he's well liked in the locker room. If every cokehead in the NHL was a locker room cancer it'd be a league-wide epidemic.

Pens decline. Have no need for Vladar - so that basically means everything is for Hanifin. Which is an overpayment for sure.

Devils aren't paying for that coleman contract

Calgary gets hosed on that deal. Kuznetsov is a problem child, Mantha s a cap dump and the only thing of value is the 8th overall pick. Lindholm is one of the best two way centers in the league and nearly every player on the flames had a terrible season under Sutter. Only Toffoli and Backlund improved last year, everyone else fell off a cliff. Weegar is a top pairing defensemen who plays both sides and Toffoli is coming off a career year with a reasonable cap hit. All 3 players are worth their contracts vs Washington where none of them are worth their contracts. No way Calgary does this trade. They could get more trading them all separately.

I want to see Ovie break the record as much as the next guy. Time is limited and there is no way Washington would turn this down. Fortunately, Calgary wouldn't make this trade though.

So this is false and stupid. Kuznetsov has four seasons in his career with over 70PTs including last season where he nearly had 80PTs. Lindholm has scored over 70 only two times in his career. Kuznetsov is unquestionably and undeniably a better offensive player hands down.

Toffoli is 31.

Again Kuznetsov for Lindholm is a wash at best and Mantha and Weegar are similar value. With Toffoli being 31, there is not a single team in the League that would offer a Top 10 pick in addition to Kuznetsov and Mantha for that package no matter what Flames homers say.

Why don’t you get hosed on that.

For 2022-23 Kuznetsov has a GSVA of 0.1 and Elias Lindholm had a GSVA of 2.2 ( I didn't have GAR data, but GSVA works just as well for a player comparison). It uses data from each player’s last three seasons, with each component weighted by recency and regressed to the mean individually (So it's a rolling regression over 3 years). The biggest criticism of GSVA is that it tends to weight offense more than defense, which is really just an issue with the underlying raw stats that are calculated (more offensive metrics than defensive metrics exist). In this case, it would benefit your argument for Kuznetsov more than Lindholm. Nevertheless because they are regressed individually, that means you can pull the relative weights for each players offense, defense and usage.

Elias Lindholm:
GSVA: 2.2
Offense: 7.4
Defense O.4
Usage adjustment: -1.8

Evgeny Kuznetsov
GSVA: 0.10
Offense: -1.7
Defense: -18.5
Usage Adjustment: -0.6

Even if we took last season alone, Lindholm is superior in every way to Kuznetsov. Since joining Calgary, Lindholm has averaged 0.88 pts per game. It was only in Carolina where he averaged 0.50 per game on a rebuilding team. Conversely Kuznetsov has a solid 0.81ppts per game over 10 years, which hardly makes up for his liabilities.

GP: Lindholm 80 vs Kuznetsov 81
Points: Lindholm 64 vs Kuznetsov 55
SOG: Lindholm 186 VS Kuznetsov 172
S%: Lindholm 11.8% vs Kuznetsov 7.0%
+/- : Lindholm +6 vs Kuznetsov -26.
Age: Lindholm 28 vs Kuznetsov 31
AAV: Lindholm 4.85MM vs Kuznetsov 7.8MM AAV

Also, Mantha is a cap dump and nowhere near to as valuable as Weegar who is a top pairing defenseman with better numbers than a (supposed) top 6 winger.

Weegar:
GSVA: 2.8
Offense: 0.90
Defense: 39 (Highest in the league)
Usage adjustment: -0.8
+/- +15
2022-23 Points: 30
Points per game: 0.38

Mantha:
GSVA: 0.6
Offense: -2.1
Defense:6.4
Usage adjustment: 0.5
+/- -8
2022-23 Pts: 27
points per game: 0.40

Even after all that, you still have to account for Toffoli who put up more points than anyone on Washington last year (except Ovie who had 2 more points than him). He also has a considerably higher GSVA than anyone on the two teams (3.4). So , YES, Calgary would be giving up three better players, for two worse players, and only receiving the pick as anything of value. Hard pass

That pick alone is worth far more than any difference you want to make up out of numbers you clearly don’t understand between players that are far closer in value than you’d like to believe. Lindholm, Toffoli, and Weegar will not help Washington win anything just like they haven’t helped Calgary win anything. I’m pretty shocked Calgary didn’t make the playoffs with all those GSVAs. There is no way that you can spin this that the 8th overall is not the most valuable piece in this trade and Wsh owns it and isn’t going to trad eit for anything suggested in the trade.

I'm not arguing that the 8th overall pick isn't valuable. What I'm saying is that it isn't worth all three of those players and two defensive liabilities.

While the top 5 picks have the highest probability of being a good player, picks 6-15 are largely equal, with a 75% chance of becoming an NHL player over 100 games. Sure, it is supposed to be a deep draft, but that player at 8th is unlikely to have any significant impact in the Ovechkin era even if it is a slam dunk.

Also, Toffoli and Backlund were the only players to show any significant improvement with Sutter last year. Every other player declined under his system last year. He overplayed slow 4th line veterans and killed the morale of the club. Washing ton would clearly be a better team with these players while Ovechkin still has gas in the tank.

No one cares what value you think that pick has. Factually Teams NEVER trade Top 10 Picks in the Salary Cap NHL and when it has (extremely rarely) happened the Pick has been traded for a single player. You are trying to put pieces together to artificially aggregate value towards a Top 10 pick and those types of trades DO NOT HAPPEN in the NHL for Top 10 Picks.

You’re suggesting Washington trade a piece they desperately need to rebuild for older vets that make a lot of money (if Lindholm signs an extension he’s likely going to coast as much or more than Kuznetsov then WSH is also adding Toffoli and Weegar’’s salary while only getting rid of Mantha so Washington is taking on a ton of Cap. It’s a terrible trade for a multitude of reasons.

Again, I'm NOT in favour of the trade because Calgary get's hosed on the deal. Toffoli, Lindholm, and Weegar could all easily get a first and a prospect from another team. In a deep draft, I would rather have 3 additional first rather than just 8th OA in return. The odds of 8th and being a success don't materially change in the mid round. The sharpest drop off in probability and quality is in the top 5. That being said, there is no reason for Calgary to trade all 3 at the draft, when the deadline will (or would have) yielded larger returns. From what I can tell this guy's trade means the caps gain 1.8MM of AAV next year, and would only need to fill 3 roster spots with the remaining 5.8MM in Cap space they have. The following year would be less of an issue as I doubt they are fully rebuilding while Ovie is still playing.

It's coincidental you say that top ten trades "NEVER" happen, because since 2005 only eight trades involving a top 10 pick have actually occurred and the 8th overall pick accounts for 3 of them (2005, 2011, 2012). So 44% of the drafts in the cap era have had a top ten pick traded and 37.5% of those were the 8th overall pick.

Did any of those trades for the 8th Overall Pick involve two guys (in Toffoli and Lindholm) who had an average age of 30 and both were less than two years removed form being UFAs? You can propose dumb **** all you like but when it comes to actual trades, reality matters.

And **** no, Toffoli, Lindholm and Weeegar could not all get a 1st + Top Prospect. Toffoli is 31 and needs a new contract, Lindholm is 28 and needs a new contract, and Weegar is outright unreliable defensively. You’re a Flames fan and your squad just missed the POs same as the Caps. Over-valuing your squad of losers doesn’t change anyones opinion that at the end of the day, they’re still losers.

First of all, it isn't my ACGM so I didn't propose anything. We're discussing the value of the trade. Do I think any team would trade 3 top line players to one team at the draft? No, I dont. What I'm saying is that Calgary could easily parlay those players to other teams at the draft or the deadline for 1sts. Also, GMs make terrible trades all the time, of have you forgotten about Martin Erat for Forsberg? Calgary traded a 1st and two seconds for Hamonic. Teams overpay for players all the time. That's reality. All three of these players are better than Erat or Hamonic at the times they were traded. The difference is that Calgary would be overpaying in this trade and not Washington.

Weegar, as previously discussed, had the highest defensive component to his GSVA of anyone in the league, so you're opinion of him is anecdotal at best.

Toffoli had the highest GSVA of anyone on either team so a first is entirely reasonable, even as a rental. Just look at the last deadline returns. Calgary could easily flip him next March if needed.

Lindholm is one of the best defensive centers In the league and still in his prime. Horvat was a UFA and had only cracked 60 pts once in his career, and easily got a 1st, a roster player and a prospect. Centers are valued more and the guy has zero baggage. He isn't a gamble at all for any team that acquires him (as opposed to Kadri or Kuznetsov).

If Calgary is going to trade them, then they would do it for the best price, not for two defensive liabilities and the 8th OA.

Also, there is great player on every team that didn't make the playoffs. It's not like Ovechkin is a loser because the caps sucked this year. Putting up good numbers on a bad team is a positive, not a detriment.