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3 Draft Day Trades

Created by: Chapee44
Team: 2023-24 Buffalo Sabres
Initial Creation Date: May 31, 2023
Published: May 31, 2023
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Description
I've been doing a lot of reading lately and in order to win a Stanley Cup, teams need 5 or more stars by Bader's model. The chances of this are greatly increased when picking high in the draft. Buffalo has some strong potential candidates as it is, but there's always room for more. I've heard that San Jose is looking to possibly move out of the 4th slot. We have pieces of value that can be moved considering our prospect depth. The mock trade I saw was Provorov, Ersson, and #7 for #4. I'm looking at what might get us up from #13. Using The Athletic's draft pick value chart the trades work out to the following player values if they were traded for one pick:
Jokiharju + UPL = Early second
Keller = Top 3 pick
Olofsson(50% retnd) = Early second

Mock Draft:
6 - Matvei Michkov RW
27 - Mikhail Gulyayev LHD
Free Agent Signings
RFAYEARSCAP HIT
1$2,300,000
1$900,000
1$900,000
UFAYEARSCAP HIT
5$6,100,000
2$3,100,000
Trades
1.
BUF
  1. 2023 1st round pick (SJS)
SJS
  1. Jokiharju, Henri
  2. Luukkonen, Ukko-Pekka
  3. 2023 1st round pick (BUF)
  4. 2024 2nd round pick (BUF)
2.
BUF
  1. Keller, Clayton
  2. 2023 1st round pick (ARI)
ARI
  1. Östlund, Noah
  2. 2023 1st round pick (SJS)
  3. 2023 2nd round pick (PHI)
  4. 2024 1st round pick (BUF)
3.
BUF
  1. 2023 1st round pick (COL)
COL
  1. Olofsson, Victor ($2,375,000 retained)
  2. 2023 2nd round pick (BUF)
  3. 2023 3rd round pick (LAK)
Retained Salary Transactions
Buried
DraftRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7
2023
Logo of the ARI
Logo of the COL
Logo of the BUF
Logo of the BUF
Logo of the BUF
Logo of the BUF
2024
Logo of the BUF
Logo of the BUF
Logo of the BUF
Logo of the BUF
2025
Logo of the BUF
Logo of the BUF
Logo of the BUF
Logo of the BUF
Logo of the BUF
Logo of the BUF
Logo of the BUF
Logo of the NSH
ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
23$83,500,000$78,065,237$0$4,570,000$5,434,763
Left WingCentreRight Wing
Logo of the Buffalo Sabres
Skinner, Jeff
$9,000,000$9,000,000
LW, RW
NMC
UFA - 4
Logo of the Buffalo Sabres
Thompson, Tage
$7,142,857$7,142,857
C
UFA - 7
Logo of the Buffalo Sabres
Tuch, Alex
$4,750,000$4,750,000
RW, LW
M-NTC
UFA - 3
Logo of the Arizona Coyotes
Keller, Clayton
$7,150,000$7,150,000
LW, RW
UFA - 5
Logo of the Buffalo Sabres
Cozens, Dylan
$7,100,000$7,100,000
C, LW
UFA - 7
Logo of the Buffalo Sabres
Waivers ExemptQuinn, Jack
$863,333$863,333 (Performance Bonus$850,000$850K)
RW, LW
RFA - 2
Logo of the Buffalo Sabres
Mittelstadt, Casey
$2,500,000$2,500,000
LW, C
RFA - 1
Logo of the Buffalo Sabres
Krebs, Peyton
$863,333$863,333 (Performance Bonus$412,500$412K)
C, LW
RFA - 1
Logo of the Buffalo Sabres
Peterka, John-Jason
$855,833$855,833 (Performance Bonus$32,500$32K)
LW, RW
RFA - 2
Logo of the Buffalo Sabres
Greenway, Jordan
$3,000,000$3,000,000
LW, RW
UFA - 2
Logo of the Buffalo Sabres
Jost, Tyson
$2,300,000$2,300,000
C
UFA - 1
Logo of the Buffalo Sabres
Waivers ExemptRousek, Lukas
$900,000$900,000
RW
RFA - 2
Logo of the Buffalo Sabres
Murray, Brett
$900,000$900,000
LW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Buffalo Sabres
Okposo, Kyle
$2,500,000$2,500,000 (Performance Bonus$500,000$500K)
RW
UFA - 1
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
Logo of the Buffalo Sabres
Samuelsson, Mattias
$4,285,714$4,285,714
LD
UFA - 7
Logo of the Buffalo Sabres
Dahlin, Rasmus
$6,000,000$6,000,000
LD/RD
UFA - 1
Logo of the Buffalo Sabres
Waivers ExemptLevi, Devon
$925,000$925,000 (Performance Bonus$925,000$925K)
G
RFA - 2
Logo of the Buffalo Sabres
Power, Owen
$916,667$916,667 (Performance Bonus$1,850,000$2M)
LD/RD
UFA - 1
Severson, Damon
$6,100,000$6,100,000
RD
UFA - 8
Raanta, Antti
$3,100,000$3,100,000
G
UFA - 1
Logo of the Buffalo Sabres
Stillman, Riley
$1,350,000$1,350,000
LD
RFA - 1
Logo of the Buffalo Sabres
Lyubushkin, Ilya
$687,500$687,500
RD
UFA - 1
Logo of the Buffalo Sabres
Bryson, Jacob
$1,850,000$1,850,000
LD/RD
RFA - 1

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May 31, 2023 at 1:30 p.m.
#1
littlejerryseinfeld
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Baders model is dumb. He considers buffalo having 1 star and Ottawa 5

Also, no one is making those trades with us
May 31, 2023 at 1:34 p.m.
#2
JoeROFLCOPTER
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If that's what it takes to get to 4OA; Red Wings outbid like all hell.
May 31, 2023 at 1:34 p.m.
#3
Chapee44
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Quoting: littlejerryseinfeld
Baders model is dumb. He considers buffalo having 1 star and Ottawa 5

Also, no one is making those trades with us


While I'm not a full fan of Bader's model I think it is worth analyzing like every other piece of data. It does turn out good results, specifically with prospect evaluation. He just has very strict standards when it comes to someone qualifying as a star.
As for the trades, they are mathematically fair so that's all I was going for. You never know who's jumpy on draft day. No matter how improbable it isn't impossible.
May 31, 2023 at 1:35 p.m.
#4
Chapee44
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Quoting: JoeROFLCOPTER
If that's what it takes to get to 4OA; Red Wings outbid like all hell.


Or they don't.
May 31, 2023 at 1:35 p.m.
#5
HockeyBuff
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AZ laughs at that offer
May 31, 2023 at 1:36 p.m.
#6
JoeROFLCOPTER
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Quoting: littlejerryseinfeld
Baders model is dumb. He considers buffalo having 1 star and Ottawa 5

Also, no one is making those trades with us


Is that the NHLe model guy? Same guy that said Kasper won't crack an NHL lineup for 2 years, which was quickly followed by Kasper's debut against the Leafs? The same guy who refuses to admit that NHLe is horrible for players who aren't offense-orientated players?
May 31, 2023 at 1:36 p.m.
#7
sharcuda22
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the sharks definitely aint doing that.... we need stars just as bad as buffalo, and there isnt enough quality to move #4 overall.
glarson17 liked this.
May 31, 2023 at 1:36 p.m.
#8
sharcuda22
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the sharks definitely aint doing that.... we need stars just as bad as buffalo, and there isnt enough quality to move #4 overall.
AStovetop liked this.
May 31, 2023 at 1:37 p.m.
#9
JoeROFLCOPTER
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Quoting: Chapee44
Or they don't.


9OA+17OA+43OA is the deal I'd imagine Detroit would offer for 4OA, which is better than 13OA+45OA+An average RHD and goalie.
sabres89 liked this.
May 31, 2023 at 1:39 p.m.
#10
littlejerryseinfeld
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Quoting: JoeROFLCOPTER
Is that the NHLe model guy? Same guy that said Kasper won't crack an NHL lineup for 2 years, which was quickly followed by Kasper's debut against the Leafs? The same guy who refuses to admit that NHLe is horrible for players who aren't offense-orientated players?


He considers drake batherson a star, but not Tage thompson
May 31, 2023 at 1:45 p.m.
#11
JoeROFLCOPTER
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Quoting: littlejerryseinfeld
He considers drake batherson a star, but not Tage thompson


Saw that too. I know it's inferred, but he really needs to claim that NHLe has a lot of issues when it comes to late bloomers/two way players.
May 31, 2023 at 1:52 p.m.
#12
mv21227
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Quoting: littlejerryseinfeld
Baders model is dumb. He considers buffalo having 1 star and Ottawa 5

Also, no one is making those trades with us


Wait seriously how does Buffalo only have one? Is it Dahlin? Thompson? Cozens? Tuch? All 4 of them should be imo
sabres89 liked this.
May 31, 2023 at 1:53 p.m.
#13
swissmontana
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I've seen this Avs trade for Olofsson like 10 times now, they only do this if RoR signs and i still think there's better options for less.
TJTwolf liked this.
May 31, 2023 at 1:57 p.m.
#14
littlejerryseinfeld
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Quoting: mv21227
Wait seriously how does Buffalo only have one? Is it Dahlin? Thompson? Cozens? Tuch? All 4 of them should be imo


Dahlin according to him.
May 31, 2023 at 2:05 p.m.
#15
glarson17
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Hard pass from San Jose, that’s just…stuff. Nothing of great value to move down 9 spots and not pick in the top 5
May 31, 2023 at 2:06 p.m.
#16
Tintin
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Quoting: littlejerryseinfeld
Dahlin according to him.

his model likely hasn't had time to update in many of the buffalo players cases or the model already has since you last saw it
i'd suspect tage, tuch, power, quinn and peterka to be stars of some kind or another according to bader if they aren't yet
May 31, 2023 at 2:09 p.m.
#17
sabres89
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I feel like when you are trying to cobble together value to move up for a valuable piece- like 4oa in this, a very strong draft, you can't add players that you wanna move. Maybe you are coming from a different place, but I'm 100% fine with moving undersized smooth skating puck movers that don't put up points and get bodied in front and in the corners. Same with upl- he's big, and shows flashes of talent, but the book on him right now has gotta be Inconsistent (I capitalized the I). So at least for me, these pieces hold some value, but not the kind of value you would need to jump from 13 to 4.
May 31, 2023 at 2:12 p.m.
#18
AStovetop
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Quoting: Chapee44
Or they don't.


Nah you're not even in the same state, let alone the ballpark of what it would take to move from 13 to 4 in this draft.
Replace UPL with Kulich and you have a deal. Anything else isn't remotely considered
May 31, 2023 at 2:25 p.m.
#19
littlejerryseinfeld
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Quoting: AStovetop
Nah you're not even in the same state, let alone the ballpark of what it would take to move from 13 to 4 in this draft.
Replace UPL with Kulich and you have a deal. Anything else isn't remotely considered


We wouldn't do it, but that's fair
May 31, 2023 at 2:33 p.m.
#20
GoAvs94
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Embarrassing offer for San Jose 1st... Laughable.
May 31, 2023 at 4:45 p.m.
#21
TJTwolf
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Avs decline. They aren't likely moving that '23 1st unless it's for a 2C or else they have one already acquired.
May 31, 2023 at 6:15 p.m.
#22
AStovetop
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Quoting: littlejerryseinfeld
We wouldn't do it, but that's fair


Yeah that's my point lol. It would have to take something REALLY good to trade that pick.
 
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