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What if Jack wants to be a Canuck

Created by: Tbrew
Team: 2023-24 New Jersey Devils
Initial Creation Date: Jun. 6, 2023
Published: Jun. 6, 2023
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8$8,000,000
8$9,000,000
1$1,000,000
1$1,000,000
1$2,000,000
1$1,000,000
4$4,000,000
1$800,000
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3$2,000,000
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  7. 2025 1st round pick (VAN)
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2023
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23$83,500,000$82,573,334$422,500$1,390,000$926,666
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LW, RW
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C, LW, RW
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C, LW
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G
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Jun. 6, 2023 at 10:21 a.m.
#1
Reinbacher Josi 2.0
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Van declines
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Jun. 6, 2023 at 10:28 a.m.
#2
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Both teams decline
Jun. 6, 2023 at 10:29 a.m.
#3
I Love J Boqvist
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This helps neither team
Jun. 6, 2023 at 10:30 a.m.
#4
BRUCE THERE IT IS
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The sifference between Petey and Jack is definitely not 3 1sts, if anything, Pettersson might have the edge on him
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Jun. 6, 2023 at 10:31 a.m.
#5
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Quoting: dgibb10
This helps neither team


Tbf a superstar being traded, by the very nature of the trade, wouldn’t help either team. The price would be so costly it’s too much for the team that acquires him to properly justify, and obviously losing a superstar is always going to hurt regardless of the return for the team that loves them
Jun. 6, 2023 at 10:39 a.m.
#6
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Quoting: cooliny
The sifference between Petey and Jack is definitely not 3 1sts, if anything, Pettersson might have the edge on him


Jack is better now, 3 years younger, and cheaper long term. over the course of the next 7 years, jack likely produces 1 mill a year (as a very low estimate) more value than pettersson, at a cost thats probably 3 mill a year cheaper. That's 28 mill in surplus value over the term of the contract. At least worth multiple 1sts.
Jun. 6, 2023 at 10:39 a.m.
#7
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You'd need to remove two 1st round picks to make the value fair.

Obviously the Devils would never do that though. Fun to speculate smile
Jun. 6, 2023 at 10:46 a.m.
#8
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Quoting: dgibb10
Jack is better now, 3 years younger, and cheaper long term. over the course of the next 7 years, jack likely produces 1 mill a year (as a very low estimate) more value than pettersson, at a cost thats probably 3 mill a year cheaper. That's 28 mill in surplus value over the term of the contract. At least worth multiple 1sts.


Agree largely with this, however Jack absolutely is not better now.
Petey had more points than him last season on a MUCH worse team, whilst being by far the better defensive player.
Petey's arguably one of the best defensive centers in the league, so much so that he was in the Selke conversation. The only people who disagree are those who haven't watched him play.
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Jun. 6, 2023 at 10:46 a.m.
#9
Ex Nucks fan
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It just makes no sense for the Canucks to do this. This is terrible for them. I think they happily keep Pettersson and all those assets. Hughes can go to New Jersey in 4 years if he really really wants
Jun. 6, 2023 at 10:48 a.m.
#10
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Quoting: dgibb10
Jack is better now, 3 years younger, and cheaper long term. over the course of the next 7 years, jack likely produces 1 mill a year (as a very low estimate) more value than pettersson, at a cost thats probably 3 mill a year cheaper. That's 28 mill in surplus value over the term of the contract. At least worth multiple 1sts.


I don’t think anybody is attaching multiple first round picks to a 100 point future Selke contender just to get 2 years younger and a couple extra points
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Jun. 6, 2023 at 10:50 a.m.
#11
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Quoting: Turkish_Canuck
Agree largely with this, however Jack absolutely is not better now.
Petey had more points than him last season on a MUCH worse team, whilst being by far the better defensive player.
Petey's arguably one of the best defensive centers in the league, so much so that he was in the Selke conversation. The only people who disagree are those who haven't watched him play.


I've had this discussion about pettersson's points quite a few times, but they're largely inflated by a weak division and unsustainably high shooting %s from teammates. (Kuzmenko+horvat for 30 assists shooting 25%).

Meanwhile haula simply could not BUY a goal no matter how many chances Hughes got for him (haula and kuzmenko had nearly identical expected goals, but Kuzmenko got Pettersson 23 assists while haula got hughes just 1).

I think Pettersson is an 85 point guy, while I see hughes as a 100+ guy.

I value that offensive gap more than the defensive gap. Overall very close but I'm taking Hughes
Jun. 6, 2023 at 10:52 a.m.
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Quoting: Juiceman
I don’t think anybody is attaching multiple first round picks to a 100 point future Selke contender just to get 2 years younger and a couple extra points


It's mostly the money factor tbh. How much do you think pettersson gets on his next contract, because I think he's gonna be an 10.5-11 mill player (what he deserves).
Jun. 6, 2023 at 10:54 a.m.
#13
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Edited Jun. 6, 2023 at 11:00 a.m.
This is horrible for Vancouver.unless Allvin thinks Luke Hughes is the next Nicklas Lidstrom
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Jun. 6, 2023 at 10:58 a.m.
#14
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Jake/Luke

For

Pettersson/Quinn

(Really the only way)
Jun. 6, 2023 at 10:59 a.m.
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Quoting: Dan_the_Man
This is horrible for Vancouver.unless Allvin thinks Luke Hughes is the next Niklas Lindstrom


Meh. Depends on how much Pettersson wants contract wise. let's say he wants 11 mill (not out of the question). Thats 6 yearsx 3 mill more, that's worth a fair bit. I'd also say Hughes will be 1 mill a year more valuable than pettersson (and could be much more if hughes develops even further). 4 mill a year with more upside over 6 years I'd say is worth the 24 and 25 1sts.

Hronek+23 1st+Raty is STEEP for a prospect for sure, but could 100% end up being a bargain as Hughes could easily provide at least 20 mill in surplus value (or more) over his ELC+RFA years if he approaches his potential.
Jun. 6, 2023 at 10:59 a.m.
#16
Dougie HIMilton
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Quoting: cooliny
The sifference between Petey and Jack is definitely not 3 1sts, if anything, Pettersson might have the edge on him


in height, maybe.
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Jun. 6, 2023 at 11:05 a.m.
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Quoting: dgibb10
Meh. Depends on how much Pettersson wants contract wise. let's say he wants 11 mill (not out of the question). Thats 6 yearsx 3 mill more, that's worth a fair bit. I'd also say Hughes will be 1 mill a year more valuable than pettersson (and could be much more if hughes develops even further). 4 mill a year with more upside over 6 years I'd say is worth the 24 and 25 1sts.

Hronek+23 1st+Raty is STEEP for a prospect for sure, but could 100% end up being a bargain as Hughes could easily provide at least 20 mill in surplus value (or more) over his ELC+RFA years if he approaches his potential.


My friend the homer is coming out in you.
Jun. 6, 2023 at 11:08 a.m.
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Quoting: dgibb10

I think Pettersson is an 85 point guy, while I see hughes as a 100+ guy.


You make some valid points, but this one is entirely baseless. They're both 100+ guys.

Petey has been in the top 3 players for hitting the post/crossbar for the past 3 seasons.
Kuzmenko is the first consistent line mate Pettersson has had in his Canucks career, shooting at a reasonable percentage. In fact he centered 28 different even strength lines last season alone.
Almost unheard of for an elite player.

His 5 most common line mates last season were:

1. Andrei Kuzmenko
2. Anthony Beauvillier (First played in Feb 2023)
3. Ilya Mikheyev (Last played Jan 2023)
4. Brock Boeser
5. Lane Pederson (Lost to waivers Jan 2023)

To score over 100 points in an awful Canucks team, with those line mates, while also being by far the team's best penalty killer, is borderline incredible.
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Jun. 6, 2023 at 11:11 a.m.
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Quoting: Dan_the_Man
My friend the homer is coming out in you.


Jack Hughes is 21, and very much on par with Pettersson right now (you can have a debate on who's better, which I have countless times with @juiceman). He should only continue to improve. the pettersson contract will likely be significantly more expensive than the one hughes is on right now, and hughes will likely be better for most of it assuming the barely 22 year old continues to improve. How much surplus value is a 1st round pick worth? 12 mill each of surplus value (on a very rough estimation) per 1st seems reasonable considering cap dump prices.

And again I mentioned the Luke price as being quite steep, and very risky, but Luke Hughes with like 7 years of RFA+ELC control can absolutely provide more value than the other pieces will if he turns out.

Neither team accepts but the value is quite reasonable
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Jun. 6, 2023 at 11:15 a.m.
#20
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Quoting: Turkish_Canuck
You make some valid points, but this one is entirely baseless. They're both 100+ guys.

Petey has been in the top 3 players for hitting the post/crossbar for the past 3 seasons.
Kuzmenko is the first consistent line mate Pettersson has had in his Canucks career, shooting at a reasonable percentage. In fact he centered 28 different even strength lines last season alone.
Almost unheard of for an elite player.

His 5 most common line mates last season were:

1. Andrei Kuzmenko
2. Anthony Beauvillier (First played in Feb 2023)
3. Ilya Mikheyev (Last played Jan 2023)
4. Brock Boeser
5. Lane Pederson (Lost to waivers Jan 2023)

To score over 100 points in an awful Canucks team, with those line mates, while also being by far the team's best penalty killer, is borderline incredible.


27% is not a reasonable shooting%. Nobody has shot that high of a % since 1990.

Also 67% of Petterssons assists have went to Kuzmenko, Miller, and Horvat. 3 guys who combined scored like 35 goals above expectation in their time in Vancouver this year.

He was never even a PPG guy before this, and the most clearly logical explanation is to look at the ridiculous shooting%s that padded his assist numbers.

I don't want to hear about Pettersson's penalty killing. He led the worst PK in hockey. (advanced metrics say he wasn't a positive on the PK)
Jun. 6, 2023 at 11:21 a.m.
#21
Dougie HIMilton
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Quoting: dgibb10
27% is not a reasonable shooting%. Nobody has shot that high of a % since 1990.

Also 67% of Petterssons assists have went to Kuzmenko, Miller, and Horvat. 3 guys who combined scored like 35 goals above expectation in their time in Vancouver this year.

He was never even a PPG guy before this, and the most clearly logical explanation is to look at the ridiculous shooting%s that padded his assist numbers.

I don't want to hear about Pettersson's penalty killing. He led the worst PK in hockey. (advanced metrics say he wasn't a positive on the PK)


I wonder how many Canucks fans would bet on Kuzmenko shooting over 20% next season
Jun. 6, 2023 at 11:23 a.m.
#22
BRUCE THERE IT IS
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Quoting: dgibb10
Jack Hughes is 21, and very much on par with Pettersson right now (you can have a debate on who's better, which I have countless times with juiceman). He should only continue to improve. the pettersson contract will likely be significantly more expensive than the one hughes is on right now, and hughes will likely be better for most of it assuming the barely 22 year old continues to improve. How much surplus value is a 1st round pick worth? 12 mill each of surplus value (on a very rough estimation) per 1st seems reasonable considering cap dump prices.

And again I mentioned the Luke price as being quite steep, and very risky, but Luke Hughes with like 7 years of RFA+ELC control can absolutely provide more value than the other pieces will if he turns out.

Neither team accepts but the value is quite reasonable


The value is quite reasonable? It’s far from reasonable. The gap between Hughes and Pettersson is so small, it’s negiglible. Why mortgage their entire future (4 1sts - 3 in the package and 1 from the Hronek trade - and a top prospect), packaged WITH a superstar centre, just to reacquire another player of the similar calibre? Makes zero sense.
Jun. 6, 2023 at 12:14 p.m.
#23
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Quoting: cooliny
The sifference between Petey and Jack is definitely not 3 1sts, if anything, Pettersson might have the edge on him


Did you miss the other Hughes in there?
Jun. 6, 2023 at 12:17 p.m.
#24
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Quoting: Turkish_Canuck


Kuzmenko is the first consistent line mate Pettersson has had in his Canucks career, shooting at a reasonable percentage..


Brother Kuzmenko is shooting at 26+% there is no universe where that’s reasonable
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Jun. 6, 2023 at 12:37 p.m.
#25
BRUCE THERE IT IS
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Quoting: srof12
Did you miss the other Hughes in there?


Doesn’t even make up the large difference in that deal anyways
 
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