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Carter Hart Deal Analysis

Created by: jonh514
Team: 2023-24 Montreal Canadiens
Initial Creation Date: Jun. 8, 2023
Published: Jun. 8, 2023
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Description
My thinking on the below deal is that the 37 OA pick is going to be high enough to choose any of the Goalies in this draft who project to be as good as Hart.

Then the 2nd next season is a sort of insurance since not all 2nd round picks work out.

Finally Allen is more of a cap clearing move and the Flyers will need to dress someone competent, so while I do not think Allen adds value, I don't believe he subtracts value either.
Trades
MTL
  1. Hart, Carter
Additional Details:
Analysis in the description above
PHI
  1. Allen, Jake
  2. 2023 2nd round pick (MTL)
  3. 2024 2nd round pick (COL)
Additional Details:
This is the most I would give up. I do not believe Hart's "upside" is the heir apparent to Carey Price.

If the price is set as a superstar Goalie, I would pass.
Buyouts
DraftRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7
2023
Logo of the MTL
Logo of the FLA
Logo of the MTL
Logo of the MTL
Logo of the PIT
Logo of the VGK
Logo of the MTL
Logo of the CGY
Logo of the MTL
Logo of the MTL
2024
Logo of the MTL
Logo of the MTL
Logo of the MTL
Logo of the MTL
Logo of the SJS
Logo of the MTL
Logo of the MTL
Logo of the EDM
2025
Logo of the MTL
Logo of the CGY
Logo of the MTL
Logo of the MTL
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ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
20$83,500,000$69,778,166$1,170,000$4,195,000$13,721,834
Left WingCentreRight Wing
Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
$4,500,000$4,500,000
LW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
$7,875,000$7,875,000
C
UFA - 7
Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
$6,500,000$6,500,000
RW, LW
M-NTC, NMC
UFA - 4
Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
$1,100,000$1,100,000
LW, RW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
$4,450,000$4,450,000
C
M-NTC
UFA - 2
Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
$5,500,000$5,500,000
RW, LW
M-NTC
UFA - 4
Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
$812,500$812,500
LW, RW
UFA - 2
Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
$3,362,500$3,362,500
C, RW
RFA - 3
Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
$3,400,000$3,400,000
RW, LW
UFA - 2
Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
$1,700,000$1,700,000
C
UFA - 2
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
$4,875,000$4,875,000
LD
M-NTC
UFA - 3
Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
$3,500,000$3,500,000
RD
UFA - 2
Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
$875,000$875,000
LD/RD
M-NTC
UFA - 1
Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
$925,000$925,000 (Performance Bonus$275,000$275K)
RD
RFA - 1
Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
$1,000,000$1,000,000
G
UFA - 1
Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
$1,400,000$1,400,000
LD/RD
RFA - 2
Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
$766,667$766,667
RD
UFA - 2
Logo of the Philadelphia Flyers
$3,979,000$3,979,000
G
RFA - 1
Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
$863,333$863,333 (Performance Bonus$420,000$420K)
LD/RD
RFA - 2
Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
$762,500$762,500
RD
UFA - 1
ScratchesInjured Reserve (IR)Long Term IR (LTIR)
Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
$7,850,000$7,850,000
LW, RW
UFA - 8
Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
$10,500,000$10,500,000
G
NMC
UFA - 3
Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
$950,000$950,000 (Performance Bonus$3,500,000$4M)
RW, LW
RFA - 2
Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
$828,333$828,333
LD/RD
RFA - 1

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Jun. 8, 2023 at 7:50 a.m.
#1
Habs4Ever
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Dude delete this ...
This is such a bad offer for Hart, you won't see a single person agreeing with you
Hart has another year at 4M, will be RFA after his deal and he is young
He is worth more than the 37th OA pick and probably a late 2nd in 2024
Jun. 8, 2023 at 8:03 a.m.
#2
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Good luck with whichever goalie is " going to be as good as Hart."
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Jun. 8, 2023 at 8:06 a.m.
#3
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carter hart blows i think this rocks
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Jun. 8, 2023 at 8:08 a.m.
#4
Joe
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I think Danny tells you to kick rocks.
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Jun. 8, 2023 at 8:09 a.m.
#5
Habs 7th round 1983
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I would go after Spencer Knight. The kid is broken, 22, born in Darien, CT and played at Boston College (Kent Hughes backyard). KH can promise his parents the Habs would take good care of their kid. Rehabilitation project 2023.
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Jun. 8, 2023 at 8:11 a.m.
#6
Joe
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Quoting: VladislavTretiak
I would go after Spencer Knight. The kid is broken, 22, born in Darien, CT and played at Boston College (Kent Hughes backyard). KH can promise his parents the Habs would take good care of their kid. Rehabilitation project 2023.


Think there may be an issue of getting him from Florida if they have even some hope for him.
Bobrovsky is 34 and I doubt they think Lyon is sustainable.
Jun. 8, 2023 at 8:15 a.m.
#7
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That does not pull Hart, especially if there's a bidding war going on...
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Jun. 8, 2023 at 8:17 a.m.
#8
Joe
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Quoting: Just_A_Guess
That does not pull Hart, especially if there's a bidding war going on...


I think Philly should trade him for a 5th because technically speaking you could get a goalie in the 5th round that could be as good as Hart!
Jun. 8, 2023 at 8:18 a.m.
#9
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Quoting: JoeROFLCOPTER
I think Philly should trade him for a 5th because technically speaking you could get a goalie in the 5th round that could be as good as Hart!


I mean technically you are correct... it'll just take 4-5 years to find out if you're correct.
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Jun. 8, 2023 at 8:20 a.m.
#10
Habs 7th round 1983
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Quoting: JoeROFLCOPTER
Think there may be an issue of getting him from Florida if they have even some hope for him.
Bobrovsky is 34 and I doubt they think Lyon is sustainable.


Bob still has 2-3 good years in front of him. That's plenty of time for FLA to find an alternative for the 'after Bob'.

The aspect that is hard to gauge is the nature of his problems. Are they related to his environment in Florida? Too much pressure? Problems with the coaching staff? Would a move to a more friendly environment and with a better group of people to support him be beneficial for him as a human being?

I strongly believe KH knows him very well and he probably knows his parents as well. Hockey wise Habs could come up with an interesting deal that helps FLA in the short run.
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Jun. 8, 2023 at 8:23 a.m.
#11
Joe
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Quoting: Just_A_Guess
I mean technically you are correct... it'll just take 4-5 years to find out if you're correct.


This is where my draft idea comes in - Red Wings need a RHD pretty bad. I think Wings should do something like this;
Acquire 11OA in some sort of deal where we don't give up 17OA
Trade 17OA to 14OA
Draft like this;

Reinbacher @ 9
Pellikka @ 11
Willander @ 14
Dragicevic @ 41
Bonk @ 42
Jun. 8, 2023 at 8:26 a.m.
#12
Joe
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Quoting: VladislavTretiak
Bob still has 2-3 good years in front of him. That's plenty of time for FLA to find an alternative for the 'after Bob'.

The aspect that is hard to gauge is the nature of his problems. Are they related to his environment in Florida? Too much pressure? Problems with the coaching staff? Would a move to a more friendly environment and with a better group of people to support him be beneficial for him as a human being?

I strongly believe KH knows him very well and he probably knows his parents as well. Hockey wise Habs could come up with an interesting deal that helps FLA in the short run.


2 good years of Bobrovsky isn't that big of a selling point, giving a team 2 years to "figure out" how to mend a trade probably means that the trade itself is biased towards the other team, unless the trade return is handsome (i.e. Hronek trade).

As for if Knight needs a change of scenery; that's what I think a trade hinges on. Obviously if Knight wants to play for KH then I think FLA should do what's best for the player's mental health.
Jun. 8, 2023 at 8:32 a.m.
#13
Habs 7th round 1983
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Quoting: JoeROFLCOPTER
2 good years of Bobrovsky isn't that big of a selling point, giving a team 2 years to "figure out" how to mend a trade probably means that the trade itself is biased towards the other team, unless the trade return is handsome (i.e. Hronek trade).

As for if Knight needs a change of scenery; that's what I think a trade hinges on. Obviously if Knight wants to play for KH then I think FLA should do what's best for the player's mental health.


The 2 years of Bob is not the selling point, I agree with you. Having to deal with a broken kid and running the risk to see his trading value plummet in 12-18 months from now is probably the most important argument here.
Jun. 8, 2023 at 8:36 a.m.
#14
Joe
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Quoting: VladislavTretiak
The 2 years of Bob is not the selling point, I agree with you. Having to deal with a broken kid and running the risk to see his trading value plummet in 12-18 months from now is probably the most important argument here.


Agreed. If I'm in Florida's position I take that risk; they don't have many assets to trade to acquire a goalie through trade and I doubt any of the top guys hit FA.
Knights trade stock is already low because of his issues, too. I think the best course of action is just betting on recovery and to not trade him barring he demands it.
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Jun. 8, 2023 at 8:39 a.m.
#15
A rational Habs fan
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MTL needs to stay on course and continue rebuilding via the draft. Hughes has only been GM for one draft year, let's not be dealing our picks away already.

Carter's a decent netminder, but let's give the reins to Montembault and see if he can take it to another level. I'm skeptical but let's give him a real shot before we decide to give him a big dollar extension...or a more modest one.

We still don't know what we have in Primeau. We need to give him a long, hard look. Send Allen to Laval if necessary. I'd rather lose overpaid Allen than see Primeau lost on waivers only to go flourish with another team.

As bad as our development of players has been, it's been worst at the goaltender position. We've had goalie prospects come and go, but it's been ages that we haven't even been able to draft and develop a decent backup goaltender. Look at the resources wasted over the years on incompetent, overpaid guys we signed to backup Price.

It seems MTL is never patient enough to let G prospects make the transition to the NHL in any role. There was a perfect opportunity to play Primeau for extended periods last year but he just rode the bench each time he was called up. I don't understand why. It's not like we were fighting for a playoff spot.

Now is the time to spend some time evaluating what we currently have between the pipes. Only after that assessment is made should MTL start thinking about, if necessary, dealing its future to remedy the situation.
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Jun. 8, 2023 at 8:43 a.m.
#16
Habs 2010
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Your analysis is really bang on... I don't see any reason why Philly would trade Hart in a deal like this but honestly that's a fair value package and the max MTL should be willing to offer in their current stage of rebuild process.

A team that is more desperate for goaltending / ready to win now like the Oilers or Sens would probably put together a better offer.
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Jun. 8, 2023 at 8:47 a.m.
#17
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Quoting: Shanesaw9
Your analysis is really bang on... I don't see any reason why Philly would trade Hart in a deal like this but honestly that's a fair value package and the max MTL should be willing to offer in their current stage of rebuild process.

A team that is more desperate for goaltending / ready to win now like the Oilers or Sens would probably put together a better offer.


Thanks! I get that it doesn't get it done, but it's where I'm at with the deal. Hart's mythical upside notwithstanding, we can pay for what he is today.
Jun. 8, 2023 at 8:49 a.m.
#18
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Quoting: VladislavTretiak
The 2 years of Bob is not the selling point, I agree with you. Having to deal with a broken kid and running the risk to see his trading value plummet in 12-18 months from now is probably the most important argument here.


Quoting: JoeROFLCOPTER
Agreed. If I'm in Florida's position I take that risk; they don't have many assets to trade to acquire a goalie through trade and I doubt any of the top guys hit FA.
Knights trade stock is already low because of his issues, too. I think the best course of action is just betting on recovery and to not trade him barring he demands it.


I think the thing to focus on for Florida is Knight is just starting a 3 year × $4.5M deal... Bobrovsky already carries a $10M cap hit, do they really want to invest that much financially in Knight hoping he will rebound? They are in the cup finals right now, surely if they think they are ready to compete for a cup right now they could do more with that $4.5M when building a roster.
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Jun. 8, 2023 at 8:50 a.m.
#19
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Quoting: Just_A_Guess
That does not pull Hart, especially if there's a bidding war going on...


Then let's not pull him. Sometimes teams trade for upside, like we did on Dach. In the case of Hart, I don't really see the upside playing out on the ice. I would be willing to pay for what he is today and a little more based on his age.
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Jun. 8, 2023 at 8:52 a.m.
#20
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Quoting: TheRealisticGuy
Dude delete this ...
This is such a bad offer for Hart, you won't see a single person agreeing with you
Hart has another year at 4M, will be RFA after his deal and he is young
He is worth more than the 37th OA pick and probably a late 2nd in 2024


Based on what? His "upside"? It's certainly not based on his play the past 2 seasons.

This is a fair offer for the goalie he is today, not the goalie he might be in the future...
Jun. 8, 2023 at 8:54 a.m.
#21
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Quoting: Boltsbeathabs
Good luck with whichever goalie is " going to be as good as Hart."


I'll bite. Why is he a great goalie today? Does he have to "take another step" to reach his potential, or did he peak early?
Jun. 8, 2023 at 8:54 a.m.
#22
Joe
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Quoting: Shanesaw9
I think the thing to focus on for Florida is Knight is just starting a 3 year $4.5M deal... Bobrovsky already carries a $10M cap hit, do they really want to invest that much financially in Knight hoping he will rebound? They are in the cup finals right now, surely if they think they are ready to compete for a cup right now they could do more with that $4.5M when building a roster.


Selling Knight basically means their window matches with Bobrovsky's, and when he drops off in performance [which already seems to be happening], they'll be left with two mediocre goalies and no "future goalie."

I would try my best to keep Knight as to extend the window because, even if you draft a top goalie prospect, they won't be around for at minimum 3 years, more likely 4/5. Free Agency, maybe they could do a goalie wheel? But typically only older guys hit the market. They don't have the assets to trade for another goalie either.
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Jun. 8, 2023 at 8:55 a.m.
#23
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Quoting: JoeROFLCOPTER
I think Danny tells you to kick rocks.


I agree and am OK with that. I understand the deal is underwhelming, but I do not believe in his upside and so I do not want to pay for the dream of his upside. I will pay for the Goalie he is today.
Jun. 8, 2023 at 8:57 a.m.
#24
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Quoting: JoeROFLCOPTER
I think Philly should trade him for a 5th because technically speaking you could get a goalie in the 5th round that could be as good as Hart!


Very cheeky sir!
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Jun. 8, 2023 at 8:58 a.m.
#25
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Quoting: SammyPollock
MTL needs to stay on course and continue rebuilding via the draft. Hughes has only been GM for one draft year, let's not be dealing our picks away already.

Carter's a decent netminder, but let's give the reins to Montembault and see if he can take it to another level. I'm skeptical but let's give him a real shot before we decide to give him a big dollar extension...or a more modest one.

We still don't know what we have in Primeau. We need to give him a long, hard look. Send Allen to Laval if necessary. I'd rather lose overpaid Allen than see Primeau lost on waivers only to go flourish with another team.

As bad as our development of players has been, it's been worst at the goaltender position. We've had goalie prospects come and go, but it's been ages that we haven't even been able to draft and develop a decent backup goaltender. Look at the resources wasted over the years on incompetent, overpaid guys we signed to backup Price.

It seems MTL is never patient enough to let G prospects make the transition to the NHL in any role. There was a perfect opportunity to play Primeau for extended periods last year but he just rode the bench each time he was called up. I don't understand why. It's not like we were fighting for a playoff spot.

Now is the time to spend some time evaluating what we currently have between the pipes. Only after that assessment is made should MTL start thinking about, if necessary, dealing its future to remedy the situation.


I would sign Monty to a 4 year extension at 3.5 ASAP and just ride a good enough goalie. The Habs should build an attack first team which has enough grid to win in the playoffs the same way.

The team with the best goalie no longer wins the cup.
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