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the summer of chevy

Created by: jbjb
Team: 2023-24 Winnipeg Jets
Initial Creation Date: Jun. 10, 2023
Published: Jun. 10, 2023
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Description
the Boston trade idea is pretty wild but you can see the vision. Swayman is likely on the block because they can't afford to pay him the money he'll want. Assuming Krejci and Bergeron both retire, suddenly the Bs have no 1st or 2nd line centers. The Jets eat Reilly's salary, Frederic as a decent young forward asset that can play right now and DeBrusk, who's been on the block on and off for like two seasons. And of course Swayman comes to Winnipeg to be Hellebuyck's replacement.

Naturally, having given up two top centers, the Jets need to target a top 6 center in a return for Hellebuyck. The Devils are rumored to be interested and Dawson Mercer would be a perfect candidate. And, again, the Jets take Vanecek back for salary purposes.

And, finally, Schmidt gets bought out to allow Heinola onto the starting lineup and Wheeler gets bought out because no one is interested in trading for him.

This team likely ends up outrageously mid, leading to DeBrusk and Niederreiter getting traded at the deadline as rentals, unless the team ends up on the better-side of mid and decides to keep them and try for a wild card seed.
Free Agent Signings
RFAYEARSCAP HIT
3$2,950,000
5$5,000,000
2$1,600,000
2$1,700,000
UFAYEARSCAP HIT
3$3,100,000
1$1,200,000
Trades
1.
WPG
  1. DeBrusk, Jake
  2. Frederic, Trent [RFA Rights]
  3. Reilly, Mike
  4. Swayman, Jeremy [RFA Rights]
  5. 2025 1st round pick (BOS)
BOS
  1. Dubois, Pierre-Luc [RFA Rights]
  2. Gawanke, Leon [RFA Rights]
  3. Scheifele, Mark
  4. 2024 3rd round pick (WPG)
2.
WPG
  1. Mercer, Dawson
  2. Vanecek, Vitek
  3. 2024 1st round pick (NJD)
  4. 2025 4th round pick (NJD)
NJD
  1. Harkins, Jansen
  2. Hellebuyck, Connor
Buyouts
DraftRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7
2023
Logo of the WPG
Logo of the WPG
Logo of the WPG
Logo of the NYR
Logo of the WPG
2024
Logo of the WPG
Logo of the NJD
Logo of the WPG
Logo of the WPG
Logo of the WPG
Logo of the WPG
2025
Logo of the WPG
Logo of the BOS
Logo of the WPG
Logo of the WPG
Logo of the NJD
Logo of the WPG
Logo of the WPG
Logo of the WPG
ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
23$83,500,000$75,107,024$0$1,675,000$8,392,976
Left WingCentreRight Wing
Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
Connor, Kyle
$7,142,857$7,142,857
LW
UFA - 3
Logo of the New Jersey Devils
Mercer, Dawson
$894,167$894,167 (Performance Bonus$400,000$400K)
RW, C
RFA - 1
Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
Ehlers, Nikolaj
$6,000,000$6,000,000
RW, LW
M-NTC
UFA - 2
Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
Waivers ExemptPerfetti, Cole
$894,167$894,167 (Performance Bonus$850,000$850K)
LW, C
RFA - 1
Kerfoot, Alexander
$3,100,000$3,100,000
LW, C, RW
UFA - 2
Logo of the Boston Bruins
DeBrusk, Jake
$4,000,000$4,000,000
RW, LW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
Niederreiter, Nino
$4,000,000$4,000,000
LW, RW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
Lowry, Adam
$3,250,000$3,250,000
C
M-NTC
UFA - 3
Frederic, Trent
$2,950,000$2,950,000
LW, RW
UFA - 2
Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
Barron, Morgan
$1,600,000$1,600,000
LW, RW
RFA - 2
Monahan, Sean
$1,200,000$1,200,000
C, LW, RW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
Appleton, Mason
$2,166,667$2,166,667
RW
UFA - 2
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
Morrissey, Joshua
$6,250,000$6,250,000
LD
NMC
UFA - 5
Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
DeMelo, Dylan
$3,000,000$3,000,000
RD
M-NTC
UFA - 1
Swayman, Jeremy
$5,000,000$5,000,000
G
RFA - 1
Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
Dillon, Brenden
$3,900,000$3,900,000
LD
UFA - 1
Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
Pionk, Neal
$5,875,000$5,875,000
RD
M-NTC
UFA - 2
Logo of the New Jersey Devils
Vanecek, Vitek
$3,400,000$3,400,000
G
UFA - 2
Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
Samberg, Dylan
$1,700,000$1,700,000
LD
RFA - 2
Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
Waivers ExemptHeinola, Ville
$863,333$863,333 (Performance Bonus$425,000$425K)
LD
RFA - 1
ScratchesInjured Reserve (IR)Long Term IR (LTIR)
Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
Gustafsson, David
$775,000$775,000
LW, C
RFA - 1
Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
Capobianco, Kyle
$762,500$762,500
LD
UFA - 1
Logo of the Boston Bruins
Reilly, Mike
$1,000,000$1,000,000
LD
UFA - 1

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Jun. 10, 2023 at 3:00 p.m.
#1
NJDevils1317
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Mercer is off the table. Certainly not moving him for a rental, nor have interest in extending a 30yr old goalie.
Tbrew liked this.
Jun. 10, 2023 at 3:02 p.m.
#2
GuyGuyGuy
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Hard NO from both teams
Tbrew liked this.
Jun. 10, 2023 at 3:17 p.m.
#3
Tbrew
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Easily a no from NJ
According to Seravalli they’re expected to roll with VV and Schmid. Not gonna get a haul from a team that doesn’t want your guy.
Jun. 10, 2023 at 3:36 p.m.
#4
NHLfan10506
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Mercer would not be on the table for anyone Jets are selling. If there was ever any deal to be made, it would be Vanecek and a few pieces from off our roster (and not Nemec).
Jun. 10, 2023 at 4:01 p.m.
#5
ON3M4N
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Swayman's comp is Knight/Oettinger. The Bruins can pay it and take a hit elsewhere. The reality is they likely shop Ullmark and try to cash in while his value is high.
Jun. 10, 2023 at 4:29 p.m.
#6
Tbrew
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Quoting: ON3M4N
Swayman's comp is Knight/Oettinger. The Bruins can pay it and take a hit elsewhere. The reality is they likely shop Ullmark and try to cash in while his value is high.


That’s an overvalue of Swayman. He had a good year against the worst teams in the league, playing the easiest games. No reason to believe that’s his ceiling against quality teams night in and night out. There’s just as much of a reason to believe his ceiling is just the league average goaltending he has provided the majority of his career
Jun. 10, 2023 at 5:49 p.m.
#7
LPProductions
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Quoting: Tbrew
That’s an overvalue of Swayman. He had a good year against the worst teams in the league, playing the easiest games. No reason to believe that’s his ceiling against quality teams night in and night out. There’s just as much of a reason to believe his ceiling is just the league average goaltending he has provided the majority of his career


this is an absolutely nonsensical take. what are you even talking about?
Jun. 10, 2023 at 6:20 p.m.
#8
Tbrew
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Quoting: LPProductions
this is an absolutely nonsensical take. what are you even talking about?


I’m talking about how Swayman was league average for every game of his career before this year, and played the majority of his starts this year (26 out of 33 by my count) against teams that didn’t make the playoffs. I wouldn’t expect him to be anywhere near as good as he was this year, as a 1A playing against better teams
Jun. 10, 2023 at 6:29 p.m.
#9
LPProductions
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Quoting: Tbrew
I’m talking about how Swayman was league average for every game of his career before this year, and played the majority of his starts this year (26 out of 33 by my count) against teams that didn’t make the playoffs. I wouldn’t expect him to be anywhere near as good as he was this year, as a 1A playing against better teams


He played against 14 playoff teams this year, also not sure that's a great way of measuring goaltender success. He played Buffalo three times and they were the 3rd highest scoring team in the league, just going to discredit that?

He had the 3rd best goals save above expected/60 this season. And are we just saying there's no chance he improves as a goalie next year? He's still very very young in "goalie years"
Jun. 10, 2023 at 7:33 p.m.
#10
Tbrew
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Quoting: LPProductions
He played against 14 playoff teams this year, also not sure that's a great way of measuring goaltender success. He played Buffalo three times and they were the 3rd highest scoring team in the league, just going to discredit that?

He had the 3rd best goals save above expected/60 this season. And are we just saying there's no chance he improves as a goalie next year? He's still very very young in "goalie years"


I’m just saying he’s absolutely a regression candidate with question marks, with his only other full season being completely average, when behind a team that isn’t shattering records playing against better competition more often.

Goalies are weird, unpredictable, and I could absolutely be wrong, but it’s not a bet I’d take this year. There are cheaper options that wouldn’t cost a potentially inflated amount elsewhere
Jun. 11, 2023 at 7:13 a.m.
#11
ON3M4N
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Edited Jun. 11, 2023 at 7:21 a.m.
Quoting: Tbrew
That’s an overvalue of Swayman. He had a good year against the worst teams in the league, playing the easiest games. No reason to believe that’s his ceiling against quality teams night in and night out. There’s just as much of a reason to believe his ceiling is just the league average goaltending he has provided the majority of his career


WTF are you even talking about? His SV% the year before was .914% which was .006% lower than this season. He had one more win and one more shutout this season compared to last season. Swayman broke into the NHL during the 20-21 season. From the year he broke in until the start of this season he ranked 4th in SV%, 1st in GAA & 15th in SO among goalies with at least 40gp.

To say his numbers last year were average is just wrong.

14th in SV%
5th in GAA
14th in SO

2.64 GAA / .914 SV% / 1 SO
2.41 GAA / .914 SV% / 3 SO

One of those is Swayman.... the other is Oettinger.

Boston wasn't a juggernaut last season, yet Swayman still put up very good numbers.

Swayman was good before this season. Fans of other teams just never paid attention because he wasn't some highly touted prospect who was drafted in the first round that was all hyped up by the media.
Jun. 11, 2023 at 8:47 a.m.
#12
Tbrew
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Quoting: ON3M4N
WTF are you even talking about? His SV% the year before was .914% which was .006% lower than this season. He had one more win and one more shutout this season compared to last season. Swayman broke into the NHL during the 20-21 season. From the year he broke in until the start of this season he ranked 4th in SV%, 1st in GAA & 15th in SO among goalies with at least 40gp.

To say his numbers last year were average is just wrong.

14th in SV%
5th in GAA
14th in SO

2.64 GAA / .914 SV% / 1 SO
2.41 GAA / .914 SV% / 3 SO

One of those is Swayman.... the other is Oettinger.

Boston wasn't a juggernaut last season, yet Swayman still put up very good numbers.

Swayman was good before this season. Fans of other teams just never paid attention because he wasn't some highly touted prospect who was drafted in the first round that was all hyped up by the media.


My favorite part is the cherry picking tbh.
You cited GSAE/60 before, but immediately moved back to traditional stats when that no longer fit your narrative. That figure was incredibly average for Swayman in 21-22

From the side of the fancies Swayman had a pretty mid year in 21-22. Dom’s model at the athletic had him providing a negative GSVA, and Jfresh has Swayman in the 52 WAR percentile.

Oettinger imo could be poised for a negative regresssion back to those numbers too, but after a year playing both more often, and against better teams, we probably saw something closer to what he would provide night in and night out. Not to mention that his value at this age will still be impacted by draft pedigree. That’s just how the league works there

From the complete outside looking in, Swayman just has more question marks than not rn with no one sure if this year was the outlier or not. It would be like if I claimed Akira Schmid was worth the same as Spencer Knight, which he clearly would not be
Jun. 11, 2023 at 9:01 a.m.
#13
ON3M4N
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Quoting: Tbrew
My favorite part is the cherry picking tbh.
You cited GSAE/60 before, but immediately moved back to traditional stats when that no longer fit your narrative. That figure was incredibly average for Swayman in 21-22

From the side of the fancies Swayman had a pretty mid year in 21-22. Dom’s model at the athletic had him providing a negative GSVA, and Jfresh has Swayman in the 52 WAR percentile.

Oettinger imo could be poised for a negative regresssion back to those numbers too, but after a year playing both more often, and against better teams, we probably saw something closer to what he would provide night in and night out. Not to mention that his value at this age will still be impacted by draft pedigree. That’s just how the league works there

From the complete outside looking in, Swayman just has more question marks than not rn with no one sure if this year was the outlier or not. It would be like if I claimed Akira Schmid was worth the same as Spencer Knight, which he clearly would not be


Nowhere in my post of this ACGM have I brought up GSAE/60. I also couldn't give a **** less about jfresh or dom's model. People act like those are the bible and there are many time when their models are shown to be inaccurate. I'm going to do us each a favor and just put you in the ignore list. This way we don't have to waste each other's time.

cheers
Jun. 11, 2023 at 9:06 a.m.
#14
Tbrew
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Edited Jun. 11, 2023 at 9:53 a.m.
Quoting: ON3M4N
Nowhere in my post of this ACGM have I brought up GSAE/60. I also couldn't give a **** less about jfresh or dom's model. People act like those are the bible and there are many time when their models are shown to be inaccurate. I'm going to do us each a favor and just put you in the ignore list. This way we don't have to waste each other's time.

cheers


Ahh I thought you were the other guy I was replying to, who obviously understood that advanced stats tell a story as well, and wasn’t ignorant to their value. Not my fault they tell a story you don’t want to hear

Also the irony here is absolutely amazing
Jun. 11, 2023 at 1:02 p.m.
#15
LPProductions
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Quoting: Tbrew
I’m just saying he’s absolutely a regression candidate with question marks, with his only other full season being completely average, when behind a team that isn’t shattering records playing against better competition more often.

Goalies are weird, unpredictable, and I could absolutely be wrong, but it’s not a bet I’d take this year. There are cheaper options that wouldn’t cost a potentially inflated amount elsewhere


goalies are for sure super all over the place and there are always outlier seasons, I just dont think Swayman has shown any signs of slowing down. Regardless, if I'm the Bruins, I look to sign him for one year in the 2-2.5m range and keep Ullmark. Will allow you more flexibility this year and Swayman can potentially cash in next season if he maintains his pace
 
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