Joined: May 2017
Posts: 134
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To give you the actual math behind this we will use the two players which filled both criteria you listed the weight and league in Nylander and Pastrnak.
Petterson had a points per game (the best indicator of success in any league) of .95349 in his draft year.
In Nylander's draft year he posed a .72973 however he had spent time in the SHL that year. He followed that season by playing in the SHL and posting a .95238 before coming over to the AHL.
Pastrnak only played in the second tear league he had posted a .66667.
Here is why people might be saying he is a bust. It is a second tier league, meaning he is playing against softer competition. Unlike a Nylander he has not proven that he can preform at a higher league yet. He has preformed better than Pastrnak and Nylander at that level, but both of them came over to the AHL that year after and put up great numbers for their respective clubs. It is all about the track record and not the player. Right now there is a question if he can play at a higher level.
Lets look at other players drafted out of the same league who were also on the smaller side who have made NHL lineups.
Joakim Nordstrom (6'1 160)
Gustav Nyquist (5'10 169)
It all comes down to how he plays next year in the SHL or the AHL. It is just preferable to draft out of the SHL. You would assume that they are playing against better competition and are closer to making the jump to North America. Its where you find more consistently your Jakob Silverbergs, Alexander Wennbergs, Mika Zibanejads. And that is the big thing with drafting out of that league. On average the second tier league does not continuously produce top end, blue chip prospects out of the first round and a half.