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Roster Check

Created by: CCM46
Team: 2023-24 Pittsburgh Penguins
Initial Creation Date: Jul. 10, 2023
Published: Jul. 10, 2023
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
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I know EK65 trade could still potentially happen, however there is a very strong possibility that this is what the roster looks like going into opening night, and while I think it is better than what last year's team was, I do not believe that anything moves the needle enough to say the Penguins are Stanley Cup contenders. The only would be a lot of players not numbered 87, 71, and 58 would have to take major steps forward to begin giving hope
Free Agent Signings
RFAYEARSCAP HIT
2$1,250,000
2$1,000,000
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DraftRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7
2024
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2025
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2026
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ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
23$83,500,000$77,343,925$0$0$6,156,075
Left WingCentreRight Wing
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$4,500,000$4,500,000
LW, RW
M-NTC
UFA - 1
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$8,700,000$8,700,000
C
NMC
UFA - 2
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$5,000,000$5,000,000
RW, LW
M-NTC
UFA - 5
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$5,000,000$5,000,000
LW, RW
M-NTC
UFA - 2
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$6,100,000$6,100,000
C
NMC
UFA - 3
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$775,000$775,000
RW, LW
RFA - 1
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$1,250,000$1,250,000
LW
UFA - 2
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$2,450,000$2,450,000
C
UFA - 2
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$5,125,000$5,125,000
RW, LW
NMC
UFA - 5
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$900,000$900,000
LW, RW
UFA - 2
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$2,000,000$2,000,000
C, RW
M-NTC
UFA - 3
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$800,000$800,000
LW, RW
UFA - 1
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
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$4,500,000$4,500,000
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UFA - 6
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$6,100,000$6,100,000
RD
NMC
UFA - 5
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$5,375,000$5,375,000
G
M-NTC
UFA - 5
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$4,025,175$4,025,175
LD
M-NTC
UFA - 2
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$2,343,750$2,343,750
RD
M-NTC, NMC
UFA - 2
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$1,800,000$1,800,000
G
UFA - 1
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$825,000$825,000
LD
RFA - 1
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$2,750,000$2,750,000
LD/RD
UFA - 2
ScratchesInjured Reserve (IR)Long Term IR (LTIR)
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$800,000$800,000
RD
UFA - 1
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$3,125,000$3,125,000
RW, C
NMC
UFA - 1
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$1,000,000$1,000,000
LD/RD
RFA - 1

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Jul. 10, 2023 at 9:43 a.m.
#26
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Quoting: jfkst1
Rangers have lost their forward depth. Their core is also older than people realize and they rushed their rebuild so no more young players coming up. Kakko and Lafreniere have not developed beyond middle of lineup players. Those two are on the verge of being busts for being top two picks. They have no cap flexibility to do anything either.
Islanders would be a lottery team without Sorokin. If he isn't elite, they're done. He was elite last year and they're still a WC team. I don't think the EC will be nearly as strong from top to bottom for this season as last.


They still have good forward depth though. Losing Tarasenko - who they only had for 30 games - isn't going to cause this team to decline a lot. They were good before him. Their core is 29-31 - about the same age the Pens were when they won back to back cups. They don't need young players to come up or Kakko and Laf to be more than middle of the lineup players though. I know we don't like the rangers but have to acknowledge that the Kid line was a dominant 3rd line last year.

Sure - the Islanders would be nothing without Sorokin, but they still have him. And nothing says he won't be elite. They also get Horvat for the full year now. You think the East will be worse? I mean outside of Boston I'm not sure who would be making the conference that much worse?
Jul. 10, 2023 at 9:44 a.m.
#27
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Quoting: CCM46
im just afraid we're going to be going into this season with a roster make up very similar to last years just 87 71 and 58 are another year older


Oh I agree. I don't like the roster as is at all.

Like I said I agree with your overall sentiment - it was just the defense and Smith/Zucker takes that I didn't agree with
Jul. 10, 2023 at 9:45 a.m.
#28
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Quoting: CCM46
Just took a look at what all these teams have currently: Boston, while they may not have the same team as last year (thank goodness) they're still really solid structurally, they have one of the best lines in hockey still with Pasta Marchand and whoever you want to put between them currently projected as Coyle, the rest of their lines are solid defensively and have scoring touches again not as prolific as last year but still solid and their defense pairings are still great and have at least Ullmark under contract. They will be contenders for the Atlantic for sure. NYR, minus Tarasenko and Kane basically similar team to before those trades, which with Igor between the pipes was a top 3 team in the Metro. NYI, Sorokin was great probably still will be center core and d pairings still strong just this team has absolutely no scoring capability which could plague them like the Pens, but on paper they're technically better I guess, but its not leaps and bounds better.


I've never seen a team with poor centers be contenders. Not once. Boston still has excellent goaltending and top 4 defense. Nothing after that. They could easily be this year's Florida Panthers that struggle to even make the postseason. Neither New York team impresses me other than goaltending. Like I said, outside of TOR, CAR, and NJD, the rest of the east is up for contention. BUF does have all the makings of an up and coming contender.
Jul. 10, 2023 at 9:50 a.m.
#29
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Quoting: JSEB93
Oh I agree. I don't like the roster as is at all.

Like I said I agree with your overall sentiment - it was just the defense and Smith/Zucker takes that I didn't agree with


Defense I will concede. The Zucker-Smith based on last year are very similar stat lines. Zucker 27-21-48 in 78 on 15:39 ATOI. Smith 26-30-56 in 78 on 16:58 ATOI. So you're looking at an 8 point difference in 1:30 ice time per game which probably actually makes Zucker slightly more point efficient, but Smith is better defensively. Which is why I made the comparison I did originally.
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Jul. 10, 2023 at 9:53 a.m.
#30
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Quoting: jfkst1
I've never seen a team with poor centers be contenders. Not once. Boston still has excellent goaltending and top 4 defense. Nothing after that. They could easily be this year's Florida Panthers that struggle to even make the postseason. Neither New York team impresses me other than goaltending. Like I said, outside of TOR, CAR, and NJD, the rest of the east is up for contention. BUF does have all the makings of an up and coming contender.


Even with this CAR and NJD take 2/5 possible positions the Pens can occupy for the playoffs. in the Atlantic you TOR, TB, FLA, BUF, and BOS with DET being a very shot in the dark MAYBE. That drops the possibilities down to 2/3 or 2/4 spots left. and is NYR and NYI are better than we are then we're pretty much screwed.
Jul. 10, 2023 at 10:01 a.m.
#31
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Quoting: CCM46
Defense I will concede. The Zucker-Smith based on last year are very similar stat lines. Zucker 27-21-48 in 78 on 15:39 ATOI. Smith 26-30-56 in 78 on 16:58 ATOI. So you're looking at an 8 point difference in 1:30 ice time per game which probably actually makes Zucker slightly more point efficient, but Smith is better defensively. Which is why I made the comparison I did originally.


You're not wrong. They actually have exactly the same point production at 5v5 lol. I was giving the slight edge to Smith though because of his consistency and health over the past couple years. But Zucker brings a lot of intangibles and physicality that Smith won't. I think overall it's a pretty even swap/comparison - I agree there. From a pure production perspective though - I do give a light edge to Smith I think. Zucker got a teammate buff this past season compared to Smith imo that helped him produce a little better.
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Jul. 10, 2023 at 10:04 a.m.
#32
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Quoting: JSEB93
You're not wrong. They actually have exactly the same point production at 5v5 lol. I was giving the slight edge to Smith though because of his consistency and health over the past couple years. But Zucker brings a lot of intangibles and physicality that Smith won't. I think overall it's a pretty even swap/comparison - I agree there. From a pure production perspective though - I do give a light edge to Smith I think. Zucker got a teammate buff this past season compared to Smith imo that helped him produce a little better.


If the Pens get 27-30 G out of Smith and 60ish points then for sure definitely an upgrade over Zuck imo, however I still think the 25G to 50ish Point range is where he will stick which for 3 more years at 5 per isn't the greatest, but its still a better move than what the previous regime would have made.
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Jul. 10, 2023 at 10:21 a.m.
#33
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Quoting: CCM46
im just afraid we're going to be going into this season with a roster make up very similar to last years just 87 71 and 58 are another year older


I mean I think everyone in this thread is pretty much in agreement the roster as is has 0 chance of going anywhere. The concerning part is we all know players once they hit 35 can drop off and it can happen quick. Especially with how fast the league is becoming. I'm not saying I think that will happen, Crosby's style I feel like will translate well as he's older, Letang is in insane shape, and Geno was still able to produce well last year, but we are relying on them to carry the team and there's basically no support. It's not really fair to put the core in that position every year. The defense is extremely concerning, but man is the bottom 6 brutal. I know I keep saying this over and over again, but the third line is historically bad. Whatever combo they do. I'm assuming it will be Carter Granlund Nylander which would be just painful to watch.
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Jul. 10, 2023 at 10:22 a.m.
#34
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Quoting: JSEB93
Oh I agree. I don't like the roster as is at all.

Like I said I agree with your overall sentiment - it was just the defense and Smith/Zucker takes that I didn't agree with


Smith for sure is a better producer than Zucker. My concern loosing Zucker is that he was somewhat of a pest and he brought so much energy and intangibles. Gave us so much momentum at times. Now that we lost that we have no one to fill that void. Could have gotten that in Bertuzzi or O'Reilly, but to me this is a huge issue with our lineup. I think the roster is still overall pretty soft, which continues to be a problem every year.
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Jul. 10, 2023 at 10:24 a.m.
#35
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Quoting: jfkst1
I wouldn't expect a huge improvement in finishing given the offseason. I do believe Karlsson would be such an offensive weapon where you would see a profound offensive production improvement.


Quoting: CCM46
I mean yes there were times when the Pens played games that the other teams goalie looked like they were going for Vezina contention, however how of that was due to extra prep because they knew they were facing Sid and Geno..... for so many years this has been the case, but both of them are such world class hockey players it truly wouldn't matter some nights. See current Connor McDavid and Draisaitl for comparison. Did they get unlucky a few games sure, but also there were nights when they literally were just logo sniping the goalie as well which makes making saves just that much easier. Im sorry, but unless theres a significant addition offensively to take pressure off of 59, 87, 67 and 71, 17, whoever is lined up with them on 2 of scoring then this teams in trouble big trouble. Because night in and night out these two lines will get teams top defensive lines and throw out their offense vs Carter line.


Rust shot 5% worse than his career average
Guentzel shot 3% worse than his career average
Malkin shot nearly 7% worse than his career average

If those three shot better, they would have made the playoffs.
Jul. 10, 2023 at 10:25 a.m.
#36
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Quoting: CCM46
Even with this CAR and NJD take 2/5 possible positions the Pens can occupy for the playoffs. in the Atlantic you TOR, TB, FLA, BUF, and BOS with DET being a very shot in the dark MAYBE. That drops the possibilities down to 2/3 or 2/4 spots left. and is NYR and NYI are better than we are then we're pretty much screwed.


I think Jersey, Carolina, Tampa, Toronto, Florida are all locks for the playoffs. Rangers, Senators, Red Wings I would say are very likely. That's 8 teams right there. And I'd still probably rank Ottawa, Islanders above us. I'd say were on par to Boston, but would still give them an advantage. Not good at all.
Jul. 10, 2023 at 10:29 a.m.
#37
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Quoting: Victor24
Rust shot 5% worse than his career average
Guentzel shot 3% worse than his career average
Malkin shot nearly 7% worse than his career average

If those three shot better, they would have made the playoffs.


Every team has some "what if's" that could have changed their playoff fates. If Buffalo improved just slightly defensively they would've made it. They did this offseason. If Carlsson didn't get injured Capitals might have made it. If the Panthers didn't have the Barkov injury they could have been further ahead of us. The point is the team was deeply flawed and had issues finishing. When a roster is as flawed as our's these problems tend to come up and the team finds ways to loose games. Good teams find ways to win, bad teams find ways to loose, and it seemed like last year we were always finding new ways to lose. To me when I look at other teams improvements versus ours we improved a lot less, which is bad because we were behind these teams already to start.
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Jul. 10, 2023 at 10:29 a.m.
#38
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Quoting: Victor24
Rust shot 5% worse than his career average
Guentzel shot 3% worse than his career average
Malkin shot nearly 7% worse than his career average

If those three shot better, they would have made the playoffs.


Guentzel is the only one of those three that shouldn't be expected to age decline. Even he is approaching that territory. That's the risk a team takes when aging out.
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Jul. 10, 2023 at 10:31 a.m.
#39
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Quoting: jfkst1
Guentzel is the only one of those three that shouldn't be expected to age decline. Even he is approaching that territory. That's the risk a team takes when aging out.


Which is why I am hesitant to give out a massive extension that he deserves. It's clear the team is aging out and with how little we improved I'm not dishing out massive extensions or money until I know they are still able to contend.
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Jul. 10, 2023 at 10:31 a.m.
#40
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Quoting: CCM46
If the Pens get 27-30 G out of Smith and 60ish points then for sure definitely an upgrade over Zuck imo, however I still think the 25G to 50ish Point range is where he will stick which for 3 more years at 5 per isn't the greatest, but its still a better move than what the previous regime would have made.


I think it depends who he plays with. If he gets Malkin and Rust/Rakell as linemates, I can see him pushing that 27 goal 60 point season. But yeah if he's in the 25/50 range - which I could definitely see as well - it's just a decent move. Not the greatest like you said but not terrible - and better than what Hextall would have done lol
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Jul. 10, 2023 at 10:35 a.m.
#41
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Quoting: pensfan21
Smith for sure is a better producer than Zucker. My concern loosing Zucker is that he was somewhat of a pest and he brought so much energy and intangibles. Gave us so much momentum at times. Now that we lost that we have no one to fill that void. Could have gotten that in Bertuzzi or O'Reilly, but to me this is a huge issue with our lineup. I think the roster is still overall pretty soft, which continues to be a problem every year.


I absolutely agree with that. I tried getting that across in one of my other comments as well. Zucker brings the energy, physicality, and annoyance factor that you can't really teach. To a lesser extent I don't like losing Archibald and Poehling for the same reason. It was already something the Pens lacked a bit, now they don't really have any of it at all. They lost their two leading hitters. And for someone who thinks the Pens lack of physicality is a bit overblown - even I agree that hurts.
Jul. 10, 2023 at 10:38 a.m.
#42
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Quoting: JSEB93
I absolutely agree with that. I tried getting that across in one of my other comments as well. Zucker brings the energy, physicality, and annoyance factor that you can't really teach. To a lesser extent I don't like losing Archibald and Poehling for the same reason. It was already something the Pens lacked a bit, now they don't really have any of it at all. They lost their two leading hitters. And for someone who thinks the Pens lack of physicality is a bit overblown - even I agree that hurts.


Yeah I don't think we need to become a super physical team, but just the bare minimum to be able to withstand the playoffs. Like in 2016-18 we had guys who could bring that physicality like Kunitz, Hornqvist etc. Then we had Tanev and got rid of him. Now we literally have 0 of it. You just can't win that way. The team would get crushed in a playoff series in that respect.
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Jul. 10, 2023 at 10:42 a.m.
#43
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Quoting: pensfan21
Yeah I don't think we need to become a super physical team, but just the bare minimum to be able to withstand the playoffs. Like in 2016-18 we had guys who could bring that physicality like Kunitz, Hornqvist etc. Then we had Tanev and got rid of him. Now we literally have 0 of it. You just can't win that way. The team would get crushed in a playoff series in that respect.


Agreed. I guess they did bring in Acciari which I forgot about - could be looked at as an Archibald replacement. But it does seem like they lack a little bit still in that area. I don't know much about Nieto - maybe he's that type of player? Or maybe that's just wishful thinking haha
Jul. 10, 2023 at 10:47 a.m.
#44
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Quoting: JSEB93
Agreed. I guess they did bring in Acciari which I forgot about - could be looked at as an Archibald replacement. But it does seem like they lack a little bit still in that area. I don't know much about Nieto - maybe he's that type of player? Or maybe that's just wishful thinking haha


Nieto is more of a skilled defensive option
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Jul. 10, 2023 at 10:49 a.m.
#45
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Quoting: Victor24
Rust shot 5% worse than his career average
Guentzel shot 3% worse than his career average
Malkin shot nearly 7% worse than his career average

If those three shot better, they would have made the playoffs.


Where are you pulling these numbers from? I looked at hockey reference and it doesn't seem accurate. We'd also have to check if any guys shot over their career s% as well then
Jul. 10, 2023 at 10:50 a.m.
#46
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Quoting: CCM46
Nieto is more of a skilled defensive option


That's what I've heard - I just wasn't sure if he had that annoyance/pest factor of a guy like Zucker, Archibald, Tanev etc. But based on your comment I'm guessing that's a no haha
Jul. 10, 2023 at 10:51 a.m.
#47
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Quoting: JSEB93
That's what I've heard - I just wasn't sure if he had that annoyance/pest factor of a guy like Zucker, Archibald, Tanev etc. But based on your comment I'm guessing that's a no haha


Most hits in a season from him was a '21-'22 in SJS with 90
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Jul. 10, 2023 at 12:49 p.m.
#48
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Quoting: JSEB93
Where are you pulling these numbers from? I looked at hockey reference and it doesn't seem accurate. We'd also have to check if any guys shot over their career s% as well then


I attached Malkin but you can look anyone up.
https://moneypuck.com/player.htm?p=8471215

The only forwards who were above their average was Zucker (by like 1%) and Bonino (who played like 4 games for the Pens).

Quoting: pensfan21
Yeah I don't think we need to become a super physical team, but just the bare minimum to be able to withstand the playoffs. Like in 2016-18 we had guys who could bring that physicality like Kunitz, Hornqvist etc. Then we had Tanev and got rid of him. Now we literally have 0 of it. You just can't win that way. The team would get crushed in a playoff series in that respect.


Quoting: CCM46
Most hits in a season from him was a '21-'22 in SJS with 90


I am loving this conversation guys. Very nice. (I'm including you as well JSEB, but you're already quoted).

With the team above, what is the Pens win total this year? My guess is around 45 wins and 105 points.
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Jul. 10, 2023 at 12:55 p.m.
#49
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Quoting: jfkst1
Guentzel is the only one of those three that shouldn't be expected to age decline. Even he is approaching that territory. That's the risk a team takes when aging out.


I would agree if their expected shooting % also dipped, but they were in line with their average. Malkins did dip a bit but he had a shooting % of nearly 15% in the previous year.

I personally think that Rust, Rakell, Guentzel, and Malkin were trying too hard and made things worse.
Jul. 10, 2023 at 1:10 p.m.
#50
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Quoting: Victor24
I attached Malkin but you can look anyone up.
https://moneypuck.com/player.htm?p=8471215

The only forwards who were above their average was Zucker (by like 1%) and Bonino (who played like 4 games for the Pens).





I am loving this conversation guys. Very nice. (I'm including you as well JSEB, but you're already quoted).

With the team above, what is the Pens win total this year? My guess is around 45 wins and 105 points.


The season totals look accurate - maybe it's the career % that's off? Idk. The numbers I'm getting are

Malkin 11.3 vs 13.5 career
Guentzel 14.8 vs 15.7
Rust 9.5 vs 12.3

They're all lower so you're right there - I'm just not finding them to be as much lower as you were getting. I think it's a good chat as well - I'm enjoying it for sure. Idk, I'm more in the realm of like 40 wins 90 points - maybe 95 if everything goes right. I'm not too high on this team as it currently stands.
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