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Karlsson Thoughts

Created by: pens1991
Team: 2023-24 Pittsburgh Penguins
Initial Creation Date: Jul. 25, 2023
Published: Jul. 25, 2023
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
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Karlsson in a recent interview in Sweden made it clear he doesn't plan to or want to stay in SJ and that he's spoken with Pittsburgh, Carolina, Toronto and Seattle.

With TDA signing officially in Carolina, still no news on a possible Pesce trade, I do think the penguins chances for EK slightly improved.

Canes would have to move Pesce and Pittsburgh would have to move Petry, both of whom have a 15 team NTC and I'd lean that neither waive for SJ. Pens would likly send Granlund back in an EK deal and the canes would need to likely move Teravainen whom has a 10 team NTC (not sure if SJ would fall on that or not). Canes definitely have better prospects to offer, that's no secret.

Toronto is wildly over the cap as everyone knows, they'd have to move Brodie and Murray without questions, plus Nylander all of whom have NTC's that could possibly block SJ. Just don't see how they can possibly get it done.. they'd have to throw in a lot more prospects given their lack of picks.

Seattle i think would be a dark horse, they do need to figure out cap though and would have to most likely move one of Schultz or Larsson, and then probably Driedger and a forward depending on which RD they move and how much retention SJ does. Seattle definitely has the picks and prospects for it.

I do however, think it's still a bit unlikely give then various shifts that need to happen.

Looking at the Burns and Meier trades that Grier made it was mostly picks, and what i would call "in between" young prospects. Guys that weren't first round picks (Exception being Mukhamadullin) but were 2-4th round guys who have maybe been knocking on the door for an opportunity to see what they can produce in the NHL. Mukhamadullin was the highest prospect and it looks like is still playing in the KHL (don't know much about him).

Obviously all three players (EK, Meier, Burns) are different, but to me I think it still speaks to what Grier and the Sharks would be looking for in return, specially on someone like Meier at his age and skill. Regardless of how well EK played this past season (and his career) his age, injury past, and AAV still make it a difficult trade.

Blomqvist is a goalie prospect for their system. Poulin and Smith are both players that can be given playing time on a team that is basically wide open and entering a rebuild. Smith has already played at the NHL level, and I believe would've played more this year with the penguins if Hextall had better asset management. I would also say Poulin would've had more opportunities with the penguins this past season if he didn't take personal time and again if Hextall didn't have awful asset management.

I think this is generally what the deal would kind of look like. The penguins would need to find a spot for Petry and DeSmith, potentially even Rutta which would open up to sign a cheap 3rd pair guy.
Free Agent Signings
RFAYEARSCAP HIT
1$950,000
Trades
PIT
  1. Karlsson, Erik ($3,500,000 retained)
Additional Details:
Just over 30% retention.
SJS
  1. Blomqvist, Joel
  2. Granlund, Mikael
  3. Poulin, Samuel
  4. Smith, Ty
  5. 2024 1st round pick (PIT)
  6. 2025 2nd round pick (PIT)
Additional Details:
2024 1st is lottery protected, 2025 2nd is conditional (could be something like if Pens make ECF in 24 or 25 and EK plays x % of playoff games the 2nd becomes a 1st).
Buyouts
DraftRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7
2024
Logo of the PIT
Logo of the PIT
Logo of the PIT
Logo of the PIT
Logo of the NYR
2025
Logo of the PIT
Logo of the PIT
Logo of the PIT
Logo of the PIT
Logo of the PIT
Logo of the PIT
2026
Logo of the PIT
Logo of the PIT
Logo of the PIT
Logo of the PIT
Logo of the PIT
Logo of the PIT
Logo of the PIT
ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
23$83,500,000$82,060,592$0$0$1,439,408
Left WingCentreRight Wing
Logo of the Pittsburgh Penguins
$4,500,000$4,500,000
LW, RW
M-NTC
UFA - 1
Logo of the Pittsburgh Penguins
$8,700,000$8,700,000
C
NMC
UFA - 2
Logo of the Pittsburgh Penguins
$5,000,000$5,000,000
RW, LW
M-NTC
UFA - 5
Logo of the Pittsburgh Penguins
$5,000,000$5,000,000
LW, RW
M-NTC
UFA - 2
Logo of the Pittsburgh Penguins
$6,100,000$6,100,000
C
NMC
UFA - 3
Logo of the Pittsburgh Penguins
$775,000$775,000
RW, LW
RFA - 1
Logo of the Pittsburgh Penguins
$950,000$950,000
LW
UFA - 2
Logo of the Pittsburgh Penguins
$2,450,000$2,450,000
C
UFA - 2
Logo of the Pittsburgh Penguins
$5,125,000$5,125,000
RW, LW
NMC
UFA - 5
Logo of the Pittsburgh Penguins
$900,000$900,000
LW, RW
UFA - 2
Logo of the Pittsburgh Penguins
$2,000,000$2,000,000
C, RW
M-NTC
UFA - 3
Logo of the Pittsburgh Penguins
$3,125,000$3,125,000
RW, C
NMC
UFA - 1
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
Logo of the Pittsburgh Penguins
$4,500,000$4,500,000
LD
M-NTC
UFA - 6
Logo of the Pittsburgh Penguins
$6,100,000$6,100,000
RD
NMC
UFA - 5
Logo of the Pittsburgh Penguins
$5,375,000$5,375,000
G
M-NTC
UFA - 5
Logo of the Pittsburgh Penguins
$4,025,175$4,025,175
LD
M-NTC
UFA - 2
Logo of the San Jose Sharks
$6,500,000$6,500,000
RD
NMC
UFA - 4
Logo of the Pittsburgh Penguins
$1,500,000$1,500,000
G
UFA - 1
Logo of the Pittsburgh Penguins
$825,000$825,000
LD
RFA - 1
Logo of the Pittsburgh Penguins
$800,000$800,000
RD
UFA - 1
Logo of the Pittsburgh Penguins
$2,750,000$2,750,000
LD/RD
UFA - 2
ScratchesInjured Reserve (IR)Long Term IR (LTIR)
Logo of the Pittsburgh Penguins
$2,343,750$2,343,750
RD
M-NTC, NMC
UFA - 2
Logo of the Pittsburgh Penguins
$1,800,000$1,800,000
G
UFA - 1

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Jul. 25, 2023 at 4:53 p.m.
#1
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Moving Petry is the challenge. Once that's done the EK trade becomes a lot easier. Assuming it will be done in a 3 team trade though. I'm thinking this happens around DOC's arbitration (August 4th I think)
Jul. 25, 2023 at 4:56 p.m.
#2
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Personally, I think adding EK is a bad move. Blowing all our assets and handicapping our cap space for a guy who hadn't played a full season since 2015-16 before last year just doesn't make sense. If he doesn't work out, we are stuck with yet another high priced unmovable contract
Jul. 25, 2023 at 4:56 p.m.
#3
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pens1991
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Quoting: pensfan21
Moving Petry is the challenge. Once that's done the EK trade becomes a lot easier. Assuming it will be done in a 3 team trade though. I'm thinking this happens around DOC's arbitration (August 4th I think)


when you say a 3 team trade, are you saying a third team is retaining on Karlsson? Or that a third team would take Petry via SJ?
Jul. 25, 2023 at 4:59 p.m.
#4
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pens1991
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Quoting: BURGHgirl
Personally, I think adding EK is a bad move. Blowing all our assets and handicapping our cap space for a guy who hadn't played a full season since 2015-16 before last year just doesn't make sense. If he doesn't work out, we are stuck with yet another high priced unmovable contract


Eh I personally would rather spend to upgrade the middle 6, but I don't disagree one bit with going after EK if the deal is right. The penguins have one of the great players of all time in Crosby, who just went out and played 82 games and scored 93 points at his age. He's still firing, if you're the pens and have a chance to add EK to that team you definitely consider it. I've been on the fence a lot about it myself, because again I think they could spend assets/move contracts to better beef up the middle 6, but adding EK to the team makes them vastly better lol. Who cares if they get stuck with him? like the team is toast in two years anyways so it's meaningless lol.
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Jul. 25, 2023 at 5:03 p.m.
#5
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Yep, other SJ fans will probably disagree, but this is the package from PIT I was imagining, though the protections/conditions on the picks could be slightly more in favor of SJ. Petry wouldn't go to SJ and Granlund is the more logical cap dump for the deal. PIT's prospect pool is depleted so they are doing a bit of quantity package for EK without going full Tampa Bay package for Jeannot, because they can't afford to lose all their picks. 1st & 2nd + prospects should do it though. Question is if PIT is even offering this deal or is offering something more crappy, or asking for more retention.

I don't think Francis is interested in selling the future to get a large ticket player like Karlsson and has a steady-as-she-goes approach to Seattle. I think they're out with how Dunn stepped up, similar to Bouchard in EDM.
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Jul. 25, 2023 at 5:08 p.m.
#6
CCM46
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Quoting: pens1991
when you say a 3 team trade, are you saying a third team is retaining on Karlsson? Or that a third team would take Petry via SJ?


I would hope the latter as a 3rd team retaining on EK makes it near impossible
Jul. 25, 2023 at 5:08 p.m.
#7
sharcuda22
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Quoting: poeticentropy
Yep, other SJ fans will probably disagree, but this is the package from PIT I was imagining, though the protections/conditions on the picks could be slightly more in favor of SJ. Petry wouldn't go to SJ and Granlund is the more logical cap dump for the deal. PIT's prospect pool is depleted so they are doing a bit of quantity package for EK without going full Tampa Bay package for Jeannot, because they can't afford to lose all their picks. 1st & 2nd + prospects should do it though. Question is if PIT is even offering this deal or is offering something more crappy, or asking for more retention.

I don't think Francis is interested in selling the future to get a large ticket player like Karlsson and has a steady-as-she-goes approach to Seattle. I think they're out with how Dunn stepped up, similar to Bouchard in EDM.


I generally agree, I think even this package could take out any of the three and give sj the other two
Jul. 25, 2023 at 5:08 p.m.
#8
CCM46
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Quoting: BURGHgirl
Personally, I think adding EK is a bad move. Blowing all our assets and handicapping our cap space for a guy who hadn't played a full season since 2015-16 before last year just doesn't make sense. If he doesn't work out, we are stuck with yet another high priced unmovable contract


I dont disagree that EK will overall hurt the rebuild, however I don't think adding him is a bad thing if the price is right.
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Jul. 25, 2023 at 5:08 p.m.
#9
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Quoting: pens1991
Eh I personally would rather spend to upgrade the middle 6, but I don't disagree one bit with going after EK if the deal is right. The penguins have one of the great players of all time in Crosby, who just went out and played 82 games and scored 93 points at his age. He's still firing, if you're the pens and have a chance to add EK to that team you definitely consider it. I've been on the fence a lot about it myself, because again I think they could spend assets/move contracts to better beef up the middle 6, but adding EK to the team makes them vastly better lol. Who cares if they get stuck with him? like the team is toast in two years anyways so it's meaningless lol.


At least he'd look really good in the snazzy suits he wears if he reverts to his norm of missing 30 games a year. Haha. He would be fun to have without a doubt. I'm with you on the beefing up the middle 6. Perhaps we can actually try that getting you ger thing I keep hearing about
Jul. 25, 2023 at 5:09 p.m.
#10
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pens1991
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Quoting: poeticentropy
Yep, other SJ fans will probably disagree, but this is the package from PIT I was imagining, though the protections/conditions on the picks could be slightly more in favor of SJ. Petry wouldn't go to SJ and Granlund is the more logical cap dump for the deal. PIT's prospect pool is depleted so they are doing a bit of quantity package for EK without going full Tampa Bay package for Jeannot, because they can't afford to lose all their picks. 1st & 2nd + prospects should do it though. Question is if PIT is even offering this deal or is offering something more crappy, or asking for more retention.

I don't think Francis is interested in selling the future to get a large ticket player like Karlsson and has a steady-as-she-goes approach to Seattle. I think they're out with how Dunn stepped up, similar to Bouchard in EDM.


Yeah, I mean I think the 1st lottery protected would happen... teams have learned their lesson from that in the past lol, but 2nd I would imagine would have very favorable conditions for SJ to become a 1st (i just picked something in fairness).

It's tough looking at it from an SJ fan perspective because you know his value, but have to reckon with the contract and age and term. If he was at like $9M with 2 years left you'd probably get a freakin boat load.

I would guess this is the deal they're offering, I think the hold up is finding a place for Petry. They can't obviously do an EK deal until they find a home for Petry, and most likely DeSmith and Rutta (rutta probably on the fence).
Jul. 25, 2023 at 5:11 p.m.
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pens1991
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Quoting: CCM46
I would hope the latter as a 3rd team retaining on EK makes it near impossible


That wouldn't happen. SJ is already retaining Burns for 2 more year, they'll be retaining EK for 4, they're not going to give up their final retention spot on Petry. The penguins will have to move Petry on the side somewhere, and I'd think most likely would need to retain about 1-2M on him.
Jul. 25, 2023 at 5:14 p.m.
#12
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Quoting: CCM46
I dont disagree that EK will overall hurt the rebuild, however I don't think adding him is a bad thing if the price is right.


IF the price is right is the key
Jul. 25, 2023 at 5:31 p.m.
#13
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Quoting: BURGHgirl
IF the price is right is the key


The more I think about a Karlsson trade, the less I see a feasible trade to move out Petry. I would not be surprised if Dubas sticks it out with Petry.
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Jul. 25, 2023 at 5:32 p.m.
#14
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Quoting: Play_Party_Hard
The more I think about a Karlsson trade, the less I see a feasible trade to move out Petry. I would not be surprised if Dubas sticks it out with Petry.


My thoughts exactly
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Jul. 25, 2023 at 6:05 p.m.
#15
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Quoting: Play_Party_Hard
The more I think about a Karlsson trade, the less I see a feasible trade to move out Petry. I would not be surprised if Dubas sticks it out with Petry.


The thing is, I wouldn't be against the Sharks sending a 3rd and Future 4th or something to another team that Petry want's to go to.
Jul. 25, 2023 at 6:14 p.m.
#16
CCM46
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Quoting: BURGHgirl
IF the price is right is the key


Oh its a huge IF don't get me wrong and even still the right price is going to set the rebuild back to the prior Crosby Malkin days
Jul. 25, 2023 at 6:14 p.m.
#17
CCM46
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Quoting: pens1991
That wouldn't happen. SJ is already retaining Burns for 2 more year, they'll be retaining EK for 4, they're not going to give up their final retention spot on Petry. The penguins will have to move Petry on the side somewhere, and I'd think most likely would need to retain about 1-2M on him.


I doubt it as well as they have other assets that can fetch more with retention particularly their center core.
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Jul. 25, 2023 at 6:15 p.m.
#18
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pens1991
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Quoting: CCM46
Oh its a huge IF don't get me wrong and even still the right price is going to set the rebuild back to the prior Crosby Malkin days


They're going back there regardless of an EK deal, let's be honest.
Jul. 25, 2023 at 8:21 p.m.
#19
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Quoting: pens1991
when you say a 3 team trade, are you saying a third team is retaining on Karlsson? Or that a third team would take Petry via SJ?


Third team takes Petry
Jul. 25, 2023 at 8:28 p.m.
#20
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Quoting: pens1991
Eh I personally would rather spend to upgrade the middle 6, but I don't disagree one bit with going after EK if the deal is right. The penguins have one of the great players of all time in Crosby, who just went out and played 82 games and scored 93 points at his age. He's still firing, if you're the pens and have a chance to add EK to that team you definitely consider it. I've been on the fence a lot about it myself, because again I think they could spend assets/move contracts to better beef up the middle 6, but adding EK to the team makes them vastly better lol. Who cares if they get stuck with him? like the team is toast in two years anyways so it's meaningless lol.


I'm at the point where I think EK is the only move that could not only potentially make this team a contender next year but to make it just a fun season. This team as is I think it would be brutal, especially if one of our stars got hurt. But EK changes everything. The transition game on D would go from below average to one of the best in the NHL, he would take the pressure off the stars, and everyone else stats would improve. I still think we need to upgrade the bottom 6 to be close to a cup contender, if not now then at the deadline, but Karlsson would for sure make up for a lack of some of that scoring. Right now I think we have a slightly improved, but still lacking defense, a truly terrible 3rd line (assuming its Carter Granlund Nylander), and top 6 of players all over 30 who would have to carry the team completely and not get hurt at all for us to contend. I was very very open to a rebuild, but we didn't go in that direction. So now that we've gone all in, I'd take giving up a 1st for Karlsson over having another season where were good enough to not get a great draft pick, but not good enough to make playoffs. Besides, if we are bad next year we can just trade our moveable assets away and recover the picks.
Jul. 25, 2023 at 11:40 p.m.
#21
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pens1991
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Quoting: pensfan21
Third team takes Petry


That would only happen if SJ isn't retaining on Petry, and penguins would probably still need to pay more for that. I don't see that being a route personally. Think they send petry separately.
 
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