Edited Aug. 24, 2023 at 5:46 p.m.
Quoting: MitchJr
First, to clarify a few statements:
1/ McCabe is signed next year, not a FA until 25/26
2/ didn’t think performance bonuses were allowed in elc contracts, so no worries with Knies
3/ we have 11 players signed - 7F, 3D + 1G with $34.2left in cap space
In order:
1/ sign willy to $9.2M, $25M left
2/ sign Samsonov to $5M, $20M left
3/ bring back Brodie $2.5M, extend Liligren at $3.5M; $14M left
4/ bring back Domi $4.5M; $9.5M left
5/ fill out bottom 6 with marlies - Holmberg ($0.8M), Robertson ($1.1M) + bring back McMann ($1.1M); $6.5 M left
6/ Sign vet FA dman to play with Reilly for $5-5.5M leaving $1-1.5 M for at least one spare
Shoot, you're right on McCabe. My bad on that.
For ELCs, the potential ELC bonuses are listed on
Puckpedia. Capfriendly and Puckpedia both have Knies with $0 of performance bonuses (which seems surprising to me, I thought college guys who sign to burn a year of their ELCs generally get performance bonuses in their contract). I don't think the bonus structure is generally well reported, so I wouldn't be surprised if he had some in his contract. It's also very weird that the Leafs are the only team in the NHL that doesn't have any performance bonuses listed for any player. Even the Isles have 8 ELCs with performance bonuses in the AHL. Anyways, we'll assume that Knies is at $0.
We're saying the same thing on the cap number, I already assumed Holmberg is on the roster this year. So it's $33.4M.
But anyways I think that supports my point: you need Brodie to take a 50% pay cut, Domi to take a pay cut instead of testing free agency at age 29, Samsonov+Woll to be a viable tandem (with Woll making next to nothing. He also may need to clear waivers this year if they choose to go with Jones are the proven backup), and then you're rounding out the roster with 4 dudes making $1M or less (Knies, Holmberg, Robertson, McMann), some of which are in key roles. And who even knows what Nylander will want.
It's not impossible by any means, but you basically need everything to go right.