General Manager Stan Bowman promised significant change after the Chicago Blackhawks were swept by the Nashville Predators in the first round of the 2017 Stanley Cup Playoffs. Since making this statement, Bowman has traded away two key pieces (Hjalmarsson and Panarin) for young, productive, and cost-controlled players (Murphy and Saad). With Marian Hossa expected to be placed on LTIR before the season starts, what will happen? I believe that Bowman will focus his efforts on shoring up the blue line, cobbling together a new second line, and improving the team's bottom-six forward group.
Bowman's first order of business is to create salary cap space. It was widely assumed that the Vegas Golden Knights would take Marcus Kruger as long as Trevor Van Riemsdyk was exposed in the expansion draft. TvR was selected by Vegas but Kruger stayed put. The unexpected Hossa news changed this deal. After seeing Vegas trade Marc Methot (a solid top-four d-man) to the Dallas Stars for a 2020 second-round pick, I believe Bowman will also look to acquire a top four d-man from the Golden Knights. Under this scenario, it makes sense for the Hawks to trade Kruger along with a future second or third-round pick for Jon Merrill. He is a good left-shot defenseman that provides a big frame for much-needed physicality on the Blackhawks’ back end. He would also pair well with Seabrook. Hellbent on acquiring future draft picks to build his roster and develop future franchise players, it's hard to imagine Vegas’s GM George McPhee saying no to this deal. Most of Vegas’s roster players become restricted or unrestricted free agents by the 2018-2019 season, so they can add Kruger’s contract to that list while gaining a draft pick. After placing Hossa on LTIR and acquiring Merrill for Kruger and (let’s assume) a third-round pick, there is roughly $8 million in cap space with a roster size of 17 players (9F, 6D, 2G). The defensemen pairs would look something like: Keith-Murphy, Merrill-Seabrook, and Kempny-Rutta. These are solid pairings but if Merrill were to be acquired by the Hawks, I would not be surprised to see a Keith-Seabrook or Kempny-Seabrook pairing. I think a balanced defense would look something like Keith-Murphy, Kempny-Seabrook, and Merrill-Rutta. I personally prefer the original order because Murphy gets paired with an elite defenseman, the second pairing has two big bodies that would keep opponents honest, and Michal Kempny would help his fellow countryman Jan Rutta transition into the NHL (not to mention that they are both good puck-moving defensemen).
With Panarin off to Columbus, I think Anisimov is the next odd-man out. While he is a useful second-line center who provides much-needed size and possesses good two-way instincts, he is inconsistent and bad at the dot. However, he still has trade value. Montreal is in the market seeking a center. I believe both the Hawks and the Habs are a perfect match. In this team scenario, Montreal signs RFA Galchenyuk to a two-year deal with an AAV of $4.5 million (similar to Anisimov’s cap hit) and is subsequently traded to Chicago for Anisimov. While he lacks consistency (like Anisimov), Galchenyuk is a talented playmaker that can bridge Panarin’s gap on second line. Ideally, he will develop good chemistry with Kane and their new center, Nick Schmaltz or Sam Gagner. Recent headlines and past history incline one to choose the latter. Gagner is a nice forward coming off of a productive season with Columbus. He played on the same line with Kane during their London Knights years, and it’s interesting to imagine them playing together again. Also, I don’t mean to toot his horn, but Kane is a special player that makes his linemates better. I believe this is a win-win deal for both Gagner and the Blackhawks. Gagner gets his hard-earned raise but signs a team-friendly one-year deal ($1.5 million). After this is all said and done, the Hawks have a newly assembled second line in Galchenyuk-Gagner-Kane along with $5.6 million in available salary cap space after the Kruger and Anisimov trades, Galchenyuk and Gagner signings; assuming a roster size of 19 players (11F, 6D, 2G).
Last but not least is the team’s bottom-six forward depth. Before delving into this area, I want to discuss specifics. You might still be wondering how $5.6 million in cap space remains. This is the result of two trades, a couple of signings, and an incomplete roster size. At this point of the team I’m building, there are missing pieces (a bottom-six starting RW and extra depth forward along with a spare seventh defenseman). So far, the forward lines are: Saad-Toews-Panik, Galchenyuk-Gagner-Kane, Hartman-Schmaltz-blank, and Jurco-Kero-Dauphin. The key piece missing is the third-line right winger. There are a lot of candidates that can fill this role (both internal and external). With available salary cap space, the free agent market seems to be the most logical choice. It goes without saying that Hossa will be greatly missed as hockey players of his caliber are rare and irreplaceable. But I’m confident that Saad will fill his shoes well (albeit on a different line). Having said this, I think Wingels would make a good third-line right winger along with Ryan Hartman and Schmaltz. I believe a two-year, $4 million deal (AAV of $2 million) is reasonable. Wingels provides experience, speed, and versatility. There is also the Chicago connection, as Wingels is from Evanston, IL. Young players like Hartman and Schmaltz will benefit from playing with guys like Wingels as they continue to mature and improve their play. Finally, the fourth line consists of Jurco-Kero-Dauphin. If I were Bowman, I would ditch Tomas Jurco and keep Dennis Rasmussen. The former is merely a reclamation project, so his true value is unknown. With Rasmussen, the Hawks get a proven lower line player that can kill penalties and blend well with Tanner Kero who could also become a defensive specialist. I believe Laurent Dauphen was brought in to fill Rasmussen’s role. But I digress. It seems like Bowman sees something in Jurco, and he is here to stay for the meantime.
Now, this team is complete with four forward lines, three defensemen pairs, and two goaltenders. After adding the thirteenth forward and seventh defenseman (I chose Roszival and Tootoo for simplicity), the Hawks have a full twenty-two men roster with $2.2 million in free salary cap space. I believe that trading Kruger and a draft pick for Merrill, swapping Anisimov for Galchenyuk, and signing Gagner and Wingels are realistic options that the Blackhawks could pursue. I know that some of these moves are controversial and infeasible because it oversimplifies matters and is based on a lot of assumptions. But given recent developments and trade rumors, I believe that these moves make sense. If you read all of this (lol) I’m interested in hearing your feedback. There are many things Bowman can do this offseason, so this should be an interesting offseason as he retools the Hawks for a cup run.
I would be very pleased if this came to fruition. I still believe Forsling makes the team out of camp, especially because I could see the Hawks taking 8D. I also think John Hayden gets the first crack at a bottom 6 winger role over Dauphin. I see Dauphin, Hino, Debrincat, and Pokka all starting in Rockford but as players who are on Stan's radar as possible call-ups by December. Also, You would have to give up much more than Arty to acquire the RFA rights to a 23 year old Galchenyuk, otherwise simply signing him to an offer sheet at that amount would result in serious draft pick compensation. They would likely want Art, a serviceable D-man (2nd/3rd pair), and possibly a pick. For conversations sake, maybe you flip Merrill to them, with Anisimov and a late pick, and it's something MTL considers. Regardless, I like the signings. You may be a little low on the Gagner contract, his market value is around 2.5-3.0, so I can't see any instance where he takes less than 2.0. Fortunately you left cap space, so you could give Gagner 2.5 and still have room for a trade deadline addition. Everything is obviously contingent on the Hossa situation, hopefully the NHL has given the Hawks some information so Stan is able to approach free agency without any question marks. Otherwise, I don't see Hossa waiving his NMC for a contract trade anyone if he truly believes he is only taking a year off, and then attempting to return. In other words, a trade would be an admittance form Hossa that he is indeed retiring and it is simply a "Pronger" trade. Tough call for him to make at this point, and hate to see him rush that decision. It will be interesting to see the way it plays out.
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