Where are the rest of the pieces going Minnesota's way?

Oh boy this is bad for minny

First step is getting mad that people are trading for your player

Second step is making wildly outlandish trades in your favor

Third will be underwhelming trades out of despair

4th will be resigning him.

Finally will be rationalizing the return

Swap the 1st and its more fair.

Hronek gets more

Minny can't sign Petty

why can't minny sign petey?

bad for minny to get a franchise centre?

Cap space, He's gonna want $12M mimimum likely closer to $13-14M, Minnesota can't give him that and ice a team around him while Sutter/Parise take up $15M in cap.

After just signing Pettersson and nothing else they will ahve $28M out of 87M tied up.

You can't get another 22 quality players for $65M, thats less than $3M per player.

Pettersson probably gets 11-11.5M. Not 13-14M

Petey likely comes in around 11 million. podkolzin probably around 1 million

boldy and erickson-ek are a combined 12.25 million

its pretty close to being a wash

Pettersson puts up 100 points again next year and Matthew puts up less he'll get more than Matthews.

dont recall pettersson being top 10 all time in goals per game

i think pettersson is very very very good (obviously, based on the trade above) but i think he will fall more in line with pastrnak/barkov/tkachuk level signings. maybe a bit of a bump from tkachuk and barkov due to cap increase and the fact that florida is a no tax state

11-11.5 is pretty realistic

Contracts in Florida/Tampa where there is no income tax are much lower.

Pastrnak is a winger. Even if you take his deal it was 13.64% of the cap when he signed it which next summer would be $12M. I'd also point out that when he signed it he had never had a 100 point season.

So your closest comparable is a non-100 point winger and even then you are looking at $12M.

Not to beat this into the ground but I'd also point out that he was a +16 last year on a team that was -22 on the year and unlike Matthews he plays the top pairing matchups. He doesn't have the luxury of having a solid 2C/3C behind him to take the hard shifts againt McDavid/Eichel, etc.

Pettersson is definitely looking for Matthews type money. Anyone close to the Canucks knows it, pretty sure Bruce accidentally said it on TV and Friedman said something similar "He views himself in the same group as Matthews/McDavid".


If he puts up 60-80 points then it will be $10.5-$11.5M likely on a 3/4 year deal. If he does 80-100 it's gonna be $11.5-$13M. If he puts up over 100 points and outscores Matthews then $13M in the minimum likely looking at a 3-5 year deal just over Matthews number.

He may not score like Matthews but he's arguably the best two way center in the league. Even on a horrible defensive team last year they controlled possession and shots when he played. His defense is Selke worthy and he put up 100 points. Need to factor in above this he doesn't play with the talent Matthews does (Matthews scores significantly more with Marner on the ice) and he plays against harder competition than Matthews. Kampf takes shifts against the top lines, once O'Reilly came in he did as well. When the Leafs are down Tavares does as well. The Leafs work to get Matthews favourable matchups, Vancouver doesn't do that for Pettersson they do it for Miller.

pastrnak had 2 season back to back where he scored at a 100+ point pace, multiple 40 goal pace or better seasons, hadn't had a 68 point pace season since his 2nd season in the NHL (pettersson had one only 2 years ago) was in the midlle of a 60+ goal season when he signed, and his contract starts only one season before petterssons. 13.64% would be the cap percentage from last year. since it starts this coming season, his cap hit percentage is actually 13.47% (11.25/83.5) which would be equal to 11.79 million under a 87.5 million dollar cap.

so yeah, my closest comparable is one of the best goal scorers of the lst decade who has been more consistent than pettersson over a longer period of time. pettersson of course as other traits that make up for the gap in goal scoring (7th in selke voting last year, plays centre, is 2 years younger when his contract starts compared to pastrnak) but i think its safe to say they are similar in value

as for the point that "Contracts in Florida/Tampa where there is no income tax are much lower". the difference is pettersson will take home about $1million less in net income living in vancouver per season compared to living in florida. so if you wanted to make it even, you'd have to add $2 million to pettersson's AAV to mostly offset the income tax discrepencey. so $2 million added to to tkachuck brings it to 11.5 million. and this is a pretty rough estimate that doesnt account for any accounting practices that can increase cap savings.

i think its safe to say petterson is low to mid 11's, and even if you want to be generous its really really tough to see him breaking 12

You are comparing him to wingers. That isn't how it works. His agents would laugh at you and take it to arbitration where that isn't even allowed. You need to compare to players of the same position.

Here are all the centers with 100 points in the last 5 years (and their cap percentages):

Mackinnon (15.27%)
Draisaitl (11.3%)
McDavid (16.67%)
Matthews (15.87%)
Crosby (14.5%)

Any competent agent gets Draisaitl thrown out as a comparison since he has a career high of 77 points when he signed the deal. If the agent can do that the arbitrator is looking at a deal between.

$11.8M and $14.6M.

Given that Pettersson can just take a 1 year $11.8M (minimum) deal from an arbitrator then walk to FA, it's fair to assume $12.5M is the bare minimum on anything longer than 2 years.

yeah super innacurrate take here.

Pettersson spends significantly less time matched up against the other teams best players compared to JT Miller. infact, Travis Green, Bruce Boudreau, and even Rick Tochett have shown a prefence to put JTM up against top lines compared to pettersson.

last year, miller spent more time matched up against mcdavid (24:13 compared to 11:00 for petey) eichel (29:33 vs 8:31) and matthews (10:58 vs 5:00) at 5v5.

the year prior, JTM played similar minutes against mcdavid (24:46 vs 25:46 for petey) more against eichel (24:25 vs 15:28) and more against matthews (13:12 vs 7:46)

overall petey has been pretty sheltered from other teams top lines. and yeah, he was plus 16 this past season (because he is really good) but the year prior he was only a plus 1, where as JT Miller (who, again, had tougher matchups) was plus 15.

you're letting one season dictate his contract but he doesnt have the history to back it up.

Lol Minnesota isn’t trading Joel Erickson ek and all that for free agent to be and lesser pieces, not trading boldly. This is straight up unrealistic and unreasonable, & bad for Minnesota! Not happening

Yea no clue what that other guy was saying but you are wrong about the one year not being everything.

Kadri had one good year and cashed in.
Marner had one year above 60 points when he signed for $10.9M/year.

If you are 30 with 1 good year it won't dictate your deal. If you are under 25 with one 100 point season you'll be paid like a 100 point player.

You forgetting Erickson ek is a stud two way C on great contract who keeps improving and so does boldly for free agent to be and nothing pieces. You aren’t getting Minnesota to trade their two good players, top C and Young really good winger in boldly for free agent. Eichel didn’t get this, and free agent to be isn’t getting this, especially from Minnesota,s GM

yeah that's not true. you can compare a player to all other forward positions. especially since we are only one year removed from petey being shifted to the wing for half a season when his scoring was down.

but okay, lets only compare him to centres. and, apparently points are the most important thing in your mind, so lets only compare him to centres who have scored at a 100 point pace in a single season in the last 10 years (1.2195 points per game) :

Mcdavid
Mackinnon
crosby
draisaitl
Matthews
Malkin
Zibanejad
Barkov
Nugent Hopkins
Hughes
Stamkos
JT Miller
Kadri
Bergeron

NHL.com also list huberdeau as a C but i wont count him since he mostly played wing

but you'll notice there is a huge range of player skill and value in that list, despite the fact that all of them have scored at over a 100 point pace in a season.

should JT Miller and Zibenajd be comparables? should barkov? should malkin?

only using points AND only using centres to determine value doesnt make sense. it limits your data way too much

fair points but kadri cashed in to only a $49 million deal and Marner took toronto to the cleaners on that contract. idk i guess pettersson could do the same but it would be an overpay by the canucks based on his resume

he is an RFA to be. not a UFA. Tkachuk got this

Just because of one trade doesn’t mean you can use that as a comparison! Period! No he didn’t. You aren’t getting boldly, Erickson ek at all. Trade him elsewhere. Minnesota isn’t interested. To add boldly, Rossi and 1st to Erickson is is straight up already unserious! Ps Minnesota gm will never do this, the same gm who hung up on Anaheim. Your proposal is beyond ridiculous

kk