Maybe he'll be worth it or overpaid by 1-2m!? This is not the position a team is supposed to be in 1 year into a players career. That's why it's risky, because he basically has to become elite in order to make this contract a bargain. Teams are supposed to "save" money on these deals eventually, but this one seems, like you said, to just "hopefully" be worth it down the line. There's just over 10 dmen in the entire NHL that make more money. He's being thrust into elite status with very little experience. A sophomore slump, which happens quite frequently, could really make this deal look bad in the short term. But I do still like Jake's long term outlook.

Love this deal. He skates really well, cna get himself out of trouble, smart with and without the puck, makes very few mistakes, takes very few penalties , a very good PP QB. Doesn’t make flashy plays but always makes the smart plays, active stick, defends very well, uses his body very well, very very good in transition either with the puck or joining the rush.

He’s not gonna be elite at one specific thing but he’s very very good at everything. Gonna be underrated his whole career

It will be interesting to compare the deal Jake Sanderson got with the deal that Jamie Drysdale gets.

(Of course, they are two entirely different styles of defensemen aside from the lefty-righty thing, but it will still be interesting.)

At the end of the season Sanderson was our 1D, routinely playing ~30 minutes a game and being elite offensively and defensively. There is very little risk for such a complete player like that. Great contract for our best defence man as soon as next season.

For everyone saying Sergachev didn't give a discount here's another example of yes he did!

That's a fair point. I would've gone the bridge route tho since this is based on a big if. If he doesn't light it up, then this contract looks gosh awful. But like you said, could be great if he spikes

Could you elaborate? I don't understand.

If Bedard was a UFA at 18 instead of draft eligible, he probably would get 13.26M from someone.

I would say this is risky, but i've watched Sanderson play. He played like a veteran last year. He is a detailed, solid and complete defender. He was the best D on the Sens last year at age 20-21. He is elite.

you know puck. he will be underrated his whole career

I think it'll be a slight overpayment.

Even if he takes a step back, a bridge would have been 5-6M or so for 2-3 years. Then you're looking at 9M+ x 5-8 years if the cap DOESN'T go up as expected. If the cap does go up, that number will increase.

People don't understand that he won't be any cheaper on an 8 year deal, because it's not like he is some flash in the pan who came out of nowhere. He was always expected to be a top pairing defenseman. If he has a bad season, he's not going to come out and sign 6 or 7 million x 8 years, he will want a bridge deal. A long term deal at best will come in at the same amount, at worst, it will come in higher.

Cost certainty is also very important. Saving 2M or less for the next 3 years is a lot less valuable than knowing that Sanderson will never cost more than 8M for the next 9 seasons (ooops, 8.05M, sorry Chabot). Aside from Pinto and Sogaard (or whoever becomes the goalie of the future), the Senators now have their U30 core signed long term, and for better or worse they know what everybody will cost for the next 5 seasons. This is a huge advantage strategically.

People who don't watch Ottawa do not understand how good of a season he had. A lot of people also don't understand that Sanderson wasn't an off the board pick at #5. He was a riser who many teams had at that spot or higher. Ottawa had him at #4. There was a strange bias against him by fans when he was selected, because there were players there who were talked about for a longer period of time. People seem to think he was a reach.

Signing a blue chip top 5 talent defenseman to an 8 year deal after he has one of the best rookie defenseman seasons in franchise history isn't outlandish. He signed for slightly less (cap hit percentage wise) that most historical comparisons signed at. He also did not get front-loaded money, signing bonuses, or strong trade protection (10-team list is nothing).

Sanderson is better than Chabot and Chychrun

If you went to the games, let alone watching team (not a critics comment, more of a statement); you could tell 85 was the best defender on the ice for a BAD Sens team defensively. He was also utilized in high pressure situations consistently by the end of the year and looked better than any other competitors on the team for the same role.

better than what TOR is doing LOL
YOU GET OVER 10 MILLION..... YOU GET OVER 10 MILLION..... YOU GET OVER 10 MILLION.....
at least OTT can weaponize the rising cap.

It’s like Norris sure he’s overpaid but the going rate for a 2C will be 8 mill in a couple years. The Brayden Schenns of the world will be worth 8 mill. 8 mill is the new 6 mill

That's like saying Stutzle's contract will effect what Lafreniere will get.

Sanderson is in another stratosphere compared to Drysdale. The Lafreniere comparison might not even be a good one, because even with how large the gap has been production wise between Lafreniere and Stutzle, the gap between Drysdale and Sanderson as defensemen is even larger.

People brought up the Chychrun RFA contract earlier, and wondered why he got so little, Drysdale is a pretty similar scenario. He's had an okay ELC but hasn't broken out as anything more than a mid-pairing tweener. He also suffered a major injury and missed almost the entire season. By comparison, Sanderson was the best defenseman who took the toughest matchups and by the end of the season was playing the biggest minutes.

Drysdale will likely get 2-3 years at low bridge money. 1.5-2.5 million. If they somehow go long term, it will be in the 4.5-5.5 million range because the Ducks take all the risk. With the Sanderson contract, the risk is equal on both sides in terms of leaving money on the table or putting too much on the table.

If that's the case, the Sens are in deep trouble

I don't get this... Ottawa will have 5 player at 7.8-8.3 in 23-24

Toronto will have 3... 2/3 are better than Ottawa's best players and the 3rd will be getting a massive pay cut next contract...

If this contract hits (which I won’t doubt) and Sanderson develops into what he’s hyped up to be this could end up being one of the bigger steals in recent memory

If it fails we have another OEL situation

This is really rolling the dice

People don't watch the Senators because they aren't a contender/playoff team.

People think Sanderson was a mid to late first round talent who the Senators went off the board with, because they don't pay attention to anything in the scouting community, and scout by reading comments on Reddit. The same thing happened with Brady Tkachuk.

If Sanderson was pegged for years going into the draft to be selected 1st or 2nd overall, which is where he'd likely go today in a re-draft, people would be fine with this contract.

This is a player who prior to debuting in the NHL was pegged as a blue chip defensive prospect and as close as you can get to a sure thing top pairing defenseman. Then in his first year he ascended to the point where he was the best and most important defenseman on a team that after the TDL had a strong top 4 with Chabot, Zub, and Chych. Yet, people are going bananas about him getting less than 10 percent of the cap ceiling (even less when the contract kicks in), when historically there probably isn't a defenseman who has done what he has done on his ELC who got less than 10-11 percent. Chabot is one of the few examples, and Chabot's performance in his breakout season that got him the contract was not as good as Sanderson's performance this past season.

Could this contract end up badly? Sure. Every contract has risk. But the risk of Sanderson costing more in the long run is much greater than the risk that he doesn't live up to this contract. The U26 buyout is also very cheap. Up until 2028, they can buy him out for a cap penalty of only 1.342M. That significantly lowers the risk of the contract, especially when you consider how 1.342M would look against a 90M-100M cap ceiling.

Are we going to see teams just skip ELCs at that point? Give a 2 year ELC with a burner (So 1 year plus 3 games) and then bam 8 years.

It is not even close to the OEL situation because Sanderson did not get anything to impede a buyout such as front-loaded money or signing bonuses.

If Sanderson sucks, the Senators have until 2028 to buy out 2/3rds of the contract spread out over twice the length. Meaning, they would only have a cap penalty of 1.342M per season. Consider that the cap may exceed 100M by that time (and conservatively should be above 90M).

OEL's contract had signing bonuses until 2023-24, which made a buyout pointless until that time. Then the eventual buyout cost well over 5M some seasons and or most seasons costs at least 2.5M.

People have to account for the buyout formula and contract structure which significantly lowers the risk the Senators take on by getting this done early. The risk of waiting on a player like this exceeds the risk of signing him now.

Exactly.
Ask me, the OTT org. have him as a cornerstone guy & I could see Chabot being traded if a deal comes along...

"Compare" doesn't come close to -- or even imply -- "affect".

77 gp, didn’t put up any stand out offensive numbers, but healed his own defensively. Defensive defence men dont get paid better than all star calibre defencemen

Again with this, then why would they do this deal now? Next year the pay woulh have been the same or less if there isnt a major bump in his points...