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Expecting no one to like this

Created by: CRC
Published: Sep. 10, 2023 at 11:11 p.m.
Salary Cap: $83,500,000
Season Days: 185/186 (99%)
Central Registry Determination: This trade has been rejected because one of the teams exceeds the 23 player roster limit

Logo of the Boston BruinsBoston Bruins

OutStatusRetained SalaryEffective Cap HitRosterSPCReserve ListDraft Rd 1Rd 2-3Rd 4-7GPGAPGAASv%
Ullmark, LinusBoston BruinsNHL-$4,973,118011-------00
Frederic, TrentBoston BruinsNHL-$2,287,634011---0000--
2025 3rd round pick (Logo of the Boston BruinsBOS)---010------
2026 1st round pick (Logo of the Boston BruinsBOS)---100------
InStatusRetained SalaryEffective Cap HitRosterSPCReserve ListDraft Rd 1Rd 2-3Rd 4-7GPGAPGAASv%
Scheifele, MarkWinnipeg JetsNHL-$6,092,070011---0000--
Luukkonen, Ukko-PekkaBuffalo SabresNHL-$832,997011-------00
2026 2nd round pick (Logo of the Buffalo SabresBUF)---010------
ChangeCap SpaceRosterSPCReserve ListDraft Rd 1Rd 2-3Rd 4-7GPGAPGAASv%
Initial$429,1662245682310
Change$335,685000-100
Final$764,851 (↑)2245681 (↓)310000

Logo of the Buffalo SabresBuffalo Sabres

OutStatusRetained SalaryEffective Cap HitRosterSPCReserve ListDraft Rd 1Rd 2-3Rd 4-7GPGAPGAASv%
Mittelstadt, CaseyBuffalo SabresNHL-$2,486,559011---0000--
Luukkonen, Ukko-PekkaBuffalo SabresNHL-$832,997011-------00
2024 1st round pick (Logo of the Buffalo SabresBUF)---100------
2026 2nd round pick (Logo of the Buffalo SabresBUF)---010------
InStatusRetained SalaryEffective Cap HitRosterSPCReserve ListDraft Rd 1Rd 2-3Rd 4-7GPGAPGAASv%
Hellebuyck, ConnorWinnipeg JetsNHL-$6,133,512011-------00
2024 3rd round pick (Logo of the Winnipeg JetsWPG)---010------
2025 3rd round pick (Logo of the Boston BruinsBOS)---010------
ChangeCap SpaceRosterSPCReserve ListDraft Rd 1Rd 2-3Rd 4-7GPGAPGAASv%
Initial$8,776,4302343663613
Change-$2,813,956-1-1-1-110
Final$5,962,474 (↓)22 (↓)42 (↓)65 (↓)2 (↓)7 (↑)13000

Logo of the Winnipeg JetsWinnipeg Jets

OutStatusRetained SalaryEffective Cap HitRosterSPCReserve ListDraft Rd 1Rd 2-3Rd 4-7GPGAPGAASv%
Hellebuyck, ConnorWinnipeg JetsNHL-$6,133,512011-------00
Scheifele, MarkWinnipeg JetsNHL-$6,092,070011---0000--
2024 3rd round pick (Logo of the Winnipeg JetsWPG)---010------
InStatusRetained SalaryEffective Cap HitRosterSPCReserve ListDraft Rd 1Rd 2-3Rd 4-7GPGAPGAASv%
Ullmark, LinusBoston BruinsNHL-$4,973,118011-------00
Frederic, TrentBoston BruinsNHL-$2,287,634011---0000--
Mittelstadt, CaseyBuffalo SabresNHL-$2,486,559011---0000--
2024 1st round pick (Logo of the Buffalo SabresBUF)---100------
2026 1st round pick (Logo of the Boston BruinsBOS)---100------
ChangeCap SpaceRosterSPCReserve ListDraft Rd 1Rd 2-3Rd 4-7GPGAPGAASv%
Initial$1,779,6432343593611
Change$2,478,2711112-10
Final$4,257,914 (↑)24 (↑)44 (↑)60 (↑)5 (↑)5 (↓)11000
Sep. 10, 2023 at 11:14 p.m.
#1
FAN
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Sorry bufallo and Boston I am not protecting the picks but extensions would be in place for all players
Sep. 10, 2023 at 11:25 p.m.
#2
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Straight value wise, I mean, I kinda like Winnipeg's return, if I was Chevy, so long as Ullmark holds up his end of the deal and plays lights out. Either way, Hellebuyck and Schiefele are both likely on the way out at some point over the next year.
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Sep. 10, 2023 at 11:27 p.m.
#3
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As for Buffalo, they trust in Levi to be there long term number one goalie. In this case, either Hellebuyck is a pure rental, or the Sabres somehow sign him to 2-3 years, or they give up on Levi as their future starter and shell out more money than necessary to Hellebuyck, just as they are about to sign Dahlin to a $10.5m cap hit for 8 years (reportedly). Mittelstadt had a nice breakout year offensively, and could show even more this coming season.

I'd hold off as the Sabres on this one.
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Sep. 10, 2023 at 11:49 p.m.
#4
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I agree but Levi is signed economically for two more season , I say sign Helly and let him mentor him for a year or two , also normally I wouldn't trade a middlestadt but Sabres are so deep at Centre with Cozens and Tage above him and all the prospects coming up
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Sep. 10, 2023 at 11:50 p.m.
#5
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No chance Winnipeg considers that. The only pieces that really hold any value to Winnipeg are the firsts and there is zero chance Winnipeg waits 3 drafts for one.

Not to mention Ullmark doesn't waive.
Sep. 10, 2023 at 11:56 p.m.
#6
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Quoting: Windjammer
No chance Winnipeg considers that. The only pieces that really hold any value to Winnipeg are the firsts and there is zero chance Winnipeg waits 3 drafts for one.

Not to mention Ullmark doesn't waive.


Mittelstadt could be a very valuable top six scoring forward for Winnipeg, I think he would be of interest as well.
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Sep. 10, 2023 at 11:58 p.m.
#7
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Quoting: Augustus
Mittelstadt could be a very valuable top six scoring forward for Winnipeg, I think he would be of interest as well.


Maybe it would even be possible to trade Lowry (and maybe +?) for an upgrade on right D, someone to replace a DeMelo long-term, and Frederic could be a valuable 3rd line center going forward for Winnipeg. Maybe not as solid as Lowry is, but to get a right D maybe worth it. Anyway, that's future think.
Sep. 11, 2023 at 12:07 a.m.
#8
Nazem Mangiapane
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It would have to be Swayman instead of Ullmark, as he is six years younger.
Jets consider retaining some of Scheifele's salary to make the cap gymnastics work.
Mittlestadt/Frederic fill the same niche, Winnipeg could use a right D so maybe Jokiharju instead of Mittlestadt?
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Sep. 11, 2023 at 12:07 a.m.
#9
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Quoting: Augustus
Mittelstadt could be a very valuable top six scoring forward for Winnipeg, I think he would be of interest as well.


Yeah, he's alrght, but I wouldn't want to be buying high on what could be his career year and isn't really needed as an LW. I'm not saying he doesn't have value, he's just not a main piece when trading for a 1C or elite goalie. He hasn't shown enough consistency yet.
Sep. 11, 2023 at 12:09 a.m.
#10
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Like I said I didn't think anyone would like my post but I'm baffled that Ullmark, Frédéric and Middlestadt wouldn't be attractive pieces , and also I don't see how anyone could know what Ullmark would think about Winnipeg, as far as the first being too far , it is still an asset to be used at Winepegs discretion
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Sep. 11, 2023 at 12:16 a.m.
#11
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Edited Sep. 11, 2023 at 12:24 a.m.
As a Jets fan, I like the trade quite a bit. Mittelstadt put up 59 pts last year and with an extension would be a decent 2C option still in his mid-20's. Ullmark doesn't waive of course (probably a Jets trade that he reportedly rejected earlier in the off-season), but would be a solid stop gap for 2 seasons. The 1st rounders won't be early ones, but will help fill the prospect pool. Frederic doesn't move the needle much.

If Helly would sign for the $8 to $8.5M range, Buffalo could probably make it work mainly using what they were planning on paying Mittelstadt. If a team allows 30 shots per game, Hellebuyck would let in one less goal than Buffalo's goalie options (based on last season's save %). If the Sabres allowed 80 less goals last season, they would have had the 5th best goals against in the NHL and would have been a playoff team.

Boston is getting some value in return, but are probably giving up a bit too much.
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Sep. 11, 2023 at 12:20 a.m.
#12
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Edited Sep. 11, 2023 at 12:28 a.m.
Quoting: CRC
Like I said I didn't think anyone would like my post but I'm baffled that Ullmark, Frédéric and Middlestadt wouldn't be attractive pieces , and also I don't see how anyone could know what Ullmark would think about Winnipeg, as far as the first being too far , it is still an asset to be used at Winepegs discretion


Well the point is the pieces don't help Winnipeg now. Any player that has trade protection in his contact had Winnipeg on it, so that's a fairly safe bet. Fredric is worthless, every team has tons of mid 20s wingers that haven't done anything and are marginal 4th liners. They have zero value on a trade.

Mittlestadt is okay, but a normally disappointing winger having one good year isn't too exciting when they are an easily found left shot.

Firsts are nice, but one 3 drafts in the future could be anywhere and would be 5 to 6 years from being able to play in the NHL. So not a lot of value, when giving up key players.

You also have to figure that the Jets can get a 1st in next summer's draft and good prospect for each Scheifele and Hellebuyck at the TDL this year, so they aren't getting much than that with this offer, considering waiting 3 years for a pick. So why do it now?

The other teams need to make concessions as well not just Winnipeg.
Sep. 11, 2023 at 12:27 a.m.
#13
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Wow , I did not hear that Ullmark may have refused a trade to winnipeg and sometimes it's hard to put full value in a trade where every team fills a need , in this case Boston first line centre and buffalo's goaltending and trying to replace Shelly and Helly for Winnipeg
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Sep. 11, 2023 at 12:28 a.m.
#14
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And I really right now it looks possible to replace those players ,
Sep. 11, 2023 at 12:30 a.m.
#15
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Sorry I meant not possible to replace them
Sep. 11, 2023 at 9:05 a.m.
#16
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Winnipeg would have to accept that. They won't get a better offer.
Sep. 11, 2023 at 4:50 p.m.
#17
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Quoting: RukaRadebe
It would have to be Swayman instead of Ullmark, as he is six years younger.
Jets consider retaining some of Scheifele's salary to make the cap gymnastics work.
Mittlestadt/Frederic fill the same niche, Winnipeg could use a right D so maybe Jokiharju instead of Mittlestadt?


I doubt Ullmark accepts a trade there. There were rumors that he turned down one market not on his NMC around the draft. Not sure if it was Winnipeg. My assumption is it wasn’t.

I question whether Boston gives up Swayman for a player 6 years older that you are going to have to buy out of free agency. Trying to balance between positional scarcity and age.

I’d previously thought about Swayman, Frederic, and center/wing prospect Georgii Merkulov or Brett Harrison for Scheifele with some retention to allow Boston to go to a 22 man roster.

I also think Hellebuyck and Scheifele are going to demand atleast 5 years in term. Do you disagree?
Sep. 11, 2023 at 5:13 p.m.
#18
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Quoting: Windjammer
Fredric is worthless, every team has tons of mid 20s wingers that haven't done anything and are marginal 4th liners. They have zero value on a trade..


I’d be glad to give you Matt Grzlecyk in his place for you to flip

Frederic’s 1.09 goals / 60 was pretty solid as is his Proj WAR of 75. I believe both are better than anyone projected in Winnipeg’s bottom 6. His stat line looks pretty similar to Al Iafallo’s 4 years ago. You can choose to not value him all you want, but I’m comfortable that he’d be valued.

I also think the impact of Scheifele’s next contact is going to make the return a hell of a lot less than you’ve been hoping. They’ll get the equivalent of a late first and a third if they don’t resign him.

Most of the trades I see for him appear too one sided to the Jets without contemplating the impact of his contract
Sep. 11, 2023 at 5:20 p.m.
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Quoting: Celtics21
I’d be glad to give you Matt Grzlecyk in his place for you to flip

Frederic’s 1.09 goals / 60 was pretty solid as is his Proj WAR of 75. I believe both are better than anyone projected in Winnipeg’s bottom 6. His stat line looks pretty similar to Al Iafallo’s 4 years ago. You can choose to not value him all you want, but I’m comfortable that he’d be valued.

I also think the impact of Scheifele’s next contact is going to make the return a hell of a lot less than you’ve been hoping. They’ll get the equivalent of a late first and a third if they don’t resign him.

Most of the trades I see for him appear too one sided to the Jets without contemplating the impact of his contract


Grzelyck as an LHD is just as worthless as Frederic. You can put all the lipstick you want on those guys, but it doesn't make them any mor valuable. Bottom of the lineup guys are fairly easy to find.
Sep. 11, 2023 at 5:27 p.m.
#20
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Quoting: Windjammer
Grzelyck as an LHD is just as worthless as Frederic. You can put all the lipstick you want on those guys, but it doesn't make them any mor valuable. Bottom of the lineup guys are fairly easy to find.


If so, when does Winnipeg find them?

Name the pending FA who would be 31 at time of FA who has garnered the type of return being suggested here. The best comparable is likely Ryan O’Reilly who was traded with Acciari and frankly didn’t come with the same BS surrounding him.

You should absolutely sign Scheifele if you can convince him to take a 4 or 5 year deal. Otherwise that pending contract minimizes his value. It will be the same thing with Ullmark next year when the Bruins try to trade him. You can deny it all you want, but that’s the piece impacting both Scheifele and Hellebuyck’s value.
Sep. 11, 2023 at 5:41 p.m.
#21
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Quoting: Celtics21
If so, when does Winnipeg find them?

Name the pending FA who would be 31 at time of FA who has garnered the type of return being suggested here. The best comparable is likely Ryan O’Reilly who was traded with Acciari and frankly didn’t come with the same BS surrounding him.

You should absolutely sign Scheifele if you can convince him to take a 4 or 5 year deal. Otherwise that pending contract minimizes his value. It will be the same thing with Ullmark next year when the Bruins try to trade him. You can deny it all you want, but that’s the piece impacting both Scheifele and Hellebuyck’s value.


Yeah, yeah, we heard from Montreal fans for over a year on now the Jets had no leverage and would have to accept whatever garbage they deemed enough to throw Winnipeg's way. Did that happen? Of course not. Teams don't trade key players without getting something they want in return. The same thing will happen here if they are traded.

You can try all you want to rationalize lowball trash offers. They're just no realistic. If a team doesn't receive some benefit for trading a player, they won't make that trade.
Sep. 11, 2023 at 6:40 p.m.
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Quoting: Windjammer
You can try all you want to rationalize lowball trash offers. They're just no realistic. If a team doesn't receive some benefit for trading a player, they won't make that trade.


If Scheifele was 25, I wouldn’t be making this argument. He is not PLD and I never thought you’d have to take a discount for PLD ever. PLD signs an 8 year contract, he’s 33 by the end of it instead of in the first two years of the new deal. You do understand players regress as they get older?

Personally, I wouldn’t trade Swayman straight up for Scheifele even if Winnipeg retained to make their salaries even. It’s an interesting discussion on how either team would balance that risk. My perspective is Swayman is too young and too talented for a guy you will have to overpay to stay past 35 with character red flags. Plus, the trade puts us in a position where we have to do the same with Ullmark.

I’d be willing to take that risk in FA for Scheifele without it costing us Swayman.

My guess is ithe deal Winnipeg makes will look like one you’ve suggested is insufficient. My only question is will you rationalize it or bash the GM, because your perspective on his value appears a tad deluded based on his current contract. We’ll see
Sep. 11, 2023 at 8:16 p.m.
#23
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Quoting: Celtics21
If Scheifele was 25, I wouldn’t be making this argument. He is not PLD and I never thought you’d have to take a discount for PLD ever. PLD signs an 8 year contract, he’s 33 by the end of it instead of in the first two years of the new deal. You do understand players regress as they get older?

Personally, I wouldn’t trade Swayman straight up for Scheifele even if Winnipeg retained to make their salaries even. It’s an interesting discussion on how either team would balance that risk. My perspective is Swayman is too young and too talented for a guy you will have to overpay to stay past 35 with character red flags. Plus, the trade puts us in a position where we have to do the same with Ullmark.

I’d be willing to take that risk in FA for Scheifele without it costing us Swayman.

My guess is ithe deal Winnipeg makes will look like one you’ve suggested is insufficient. My only question is will you rationalize it or bash the GM, because your perspective on his value appears a tad deluded based on his current contract. We’ll see



You said yourself above that each Scheifele and Hellebuyck are worth a 1st and a 3rd, which is on the extreme low end of a TDL rental return for both.

So, if you believe that, why are the only deals you champion, ones where Winnipeg receives far less than that for an entire year?

If you think someone is going to gift you a 1C for peanuts, as in less than they get as a rental, I think you're deluding yourself.
Sep. 11, 2023 at 8:44 p.m.
#24
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Edited Sep. 11, 2023 at 8:50 p.m.
Quoting: Windjammer
You said yourself above that each Scheifele and Hellebuyck are worth a 1st and a 3rd, which is on the extreme low end of a TDL rental return for both.

So, if you believe that, why are the only deals you champion, ones where Winnipeg receives far less than that for an entire year?

If you think someone is going to gift you a 1C for peanuts, as in less than they get as a rental, I think you're deluding yourself.


Nah. I just believe your position on Jeremy Swayman’s value is moronic. I don’t believe Boston would even consider trading him for a late first and a third.

Almost everything suggests he’s the equivalent of Hellebuyck at the same age including the scouting report with similar weaknesses and strengths. Apparently you don’t value that based on your comments

That said, you seem quick to minimize other teams talent even when you have inferior players at similar positions. For example, you commented that Marco Rossi and a first from Minnesota wouldn’t be close in another AGM?

No offense … the Minnesota GM would need to be borderline drunk to consider that deal for Scheifele with his current contract situation.
Sep. 11, 2023 at 9:23 p.m.
#25
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Quoting: Celtics21
Nah. I just believe your position on Jeremy Swayman’s value is moronic. I don’t believe Boston would even consider trading him for a late first and a third.

Almost everything suggests he’s the equivalent of Hellebuyck at the same age including the scouting report with similar weaknesses and strengths. Apparently you don’t value that based on your comments

That said, you seem quick to minimize other teams talent even when you have inferior players at similar positions. For example, you commented that Marco Rossi and a first from Minnesota wouldn’t be close in another AGM?

No offense … the Minnesota GM would need to be borderline drunk to consider that deal for Scheifele with his current contract situation.


Same could be said for your evaluation. Everyone knows goalies are voodoo and don't have the value that their skill suggests they should have. But somehow to you, Swayman, who has done nothing so far, is the most valuable goalie commodity in the league and a proven elite goalie like Hellebuyck is worth only a fraction of that. Homer bias? So, while Swayman does have value, he's not in the realm of a 1C in value.

I said the Jets wouldn't consider Rossi, but that's mainly because of size. At 5'-9 he's unlikely to ever be an effective top 6 veneer in the NHL and trading a 1C for a small winger, when you don't have a center to play him with. Doesn't help the jets.

Don't forget I've also seen your evaluations of guys like Frederic and Grzelyck along with a 3rd is fair value for a 1C, so I don't think you're player evaluations are objective.

You have to remember when teams are trading they are trying to improve their team as well. They're not there to just give you good players for those you no longer want or realize will never live up to their potential.
 
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