Get CapFriendly PremiumGet CapFriendly Premium
Forums/Armchair-GM

Devils vs Canes

Created by: dgibb10
Team: 2023-24 Custom Team
Initial Creation Date: Sep. 18, 2023
Published: Sep. 18, 2023
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Description
My rankings of the players at each position going into this season.

Factors considered:
-past performance (recent year weighed heaviest)
-age and projected improvement/decline
-lingering injuries that may limit effectiveness
ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
42$83,500,000$156,312,750$0$5,982,500-$72,812,750
Left WingCentreRight Wing
Logo of the New Jersey Devils
$8,800,000$8,800,000
LW, RW
UFA - 8
Logo of the New Jersey Devils
$8,000,000$8,000,000
C
UFA - 7
Logo of the New Jersey Devils
$4,250,000$4,250,000
RW, LW
UFA - 1
Logo of the New Jersey Devils
$7,875,000$7,875,000
RW, LW
UFA - 8
Logo of the New Jersey Devils
$7,250,000$7,250,000
C
UFA - 4
Logo of the Carolina Hurricanes
$3,000,000$3,000,000
RW
RFA - 1
Logo of the Carolina Hurricanes
$7,750,000$7,750,000
LW, RW
UFA - 6
Logo of the Carolina Hurricanes
$8,460,250$8,460,250
C
UFA - 1
Logo of the New Jersey Devils
$894,167$894,167 (Performance Bonus$400,000$400K)
RW, C
RFA - 1
Logo of the Carolina Hurricanes
$5,400,000$5,400,000
LW, RW
M-NTC
UFA - 1
Logo of the Carolina Hurricanes
$4,820,000$4,820,000
C
UFA - 7
Logo of the Carolina Hurricanes
$894,167$894,167 (Performance Bonus$500,000$500K)
RW
RFA - 1
Logo of the Carolina Hurricanes
$4,500,000$4,500,000
LW
M-NTC
UFA - 3
Logo of the Carolina Hurricanes
$2,900,000$2,900,000
C, LW
NMC
UFA - 4
Logo of the Carolina Hurricanes
$2,400,000$2,400,000
RW
NTC
UFA - 2
Logo of the New Jersey Devils
$6,000,000$6,000,000
LW, RW
NMC
UFA - 4
Logo of the New Jersey Devils
$3,150,000$3,150,000
C, LW
NTC
UFA - 3
Logo of the New Jersey Devils
$894,167$894,167 (Performance Bonus$850,000$850K)
RW, LW
RFA - 2
Logo of the Carolina Hurricanes
$1,800,000$1,800,000
LW, RW
UFA - 1
Logo of the New Jersey Devils
$1,400,000$1,400,000
C
RFA - 1
Logo of the Carolina Hurricanes
$762,500$762,500
LW, RW
UFA - 1
Logo of the New Jersey Devils
$863,333$863,333
LW
RFA - 1
Logo of the Carolina Hurricanes
$925,000$925,000
C
RFA - 1
Logo of the New Jersey Devils
$1,350,000$1,350,000
RW
UFA - 2
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
Logo of the Carolina Hurricanes
$5,300,000$5,300,000
LD
M-NTC
UFA - 2
Logo of the New Jersey Devils
$9,000,000$9,000,000
RD
NMC
UFA - 5
Logo of the New Jersey Devils
$850,833$850,833 (Performance Bonus$57,500$58K)
G
RFA - 1
Logo of the Carolina Hurricanes
$7,750,000$7,750,000
LD
UFA - 2
Logo of the Carolina Hurricanes
$4,025,000$4,025,000
RD
M-NTC
UFA - 1
Logo of the Carolina Hurricanes
$2,000,000$2,000,000
G
UFA - 4
Logo of the Carolina Hurricanes
$5,250,000$5,250,000
LD
M-NTC
UFA - 1
Logo of the Carolina Hurricanes
$5,280,000$5,280,000
RD
M-NTC
UFA - 2
Logo of the Carolina Hurricanes
$3,400,000$3,400,000
G
M-NTC
UFA - 2
Logo of the New Jersey Devils
$3,400,000$3,400,000
LD
UFA - 5
Logo of the New Jersey Devils
$4,400,000$4,400,000
RD
UFA - 4
Logo of the New Jersey Devils
$3,400,000$3,400,000
G
UFA - 2
Logo of the New Jersey Devils
$925,000$925,000 (Performance Bonus$925,000$925K)
LD/RD
RFA - 2
Logo of the Carolina Hurricanes
$1,675,000$1,675,000
RD
UFA - 1
Logo of the Carolina Hurricanes
$1,500,000$1,500,000
G
UFA - 1
Logo of the New Jersey Devils
$1,050,000$1,050,000
LD
RFA - 2
Logo of the New Jersey Devils
$1,850,000$1,850,000
RD
UFA - 1
Logo of the New Jersey Devils
$918,333$918,333 (Performance Bonus$3,250,000$3M)
RD
RFA - 3

Embed Code

  • To display this team on another website or blog, add this iFrame to the appropriate page
  • Customize the height attribute in the iFrame code below to fit your website appropriately. Minimum recommended: 400px.

Text-Embed

Click to Highlight
Sep. 18, 2023 at 6:28 p.m.
#1
Avatar of the user
Joined: May 2018
Posts: 18,512
Likes: 4,866
This is all over the place

Svechnikov > Bratt, Aho > Hischier, Noesen > Holtz, Freddie >>>>>>>> any other goalie on here
Sep. 18, 2023 at 6:47 p.m.
#2
Avatar of the user
Joined: Jun. 2022
Posts: 381
Likes: 175
Quoting: Caniac2000
This is all over the place

Svechnikov > Bratt, Aho > Hischier, Noesen > Holtz, Freddie >>>>>>>> any other goalie on here


You've already been cooked by many people on the Aho and Hischier topic lets not revisit it
Sep. 18, 2023 at 7:00 p.m.
#3
Avatar of the user
Joined: May 2018
Posts: 18,512
Likes: 4,866
Quoting: Schuyler
You've already been cooked by many people on the Aho and Hischier topic lets not revisit it


Aho's better, Devils fans need to cope with it. Aho's just purely better offensively and the Hischier's defense doesn't make up for it.
Sep. 18, 2023 at 7:03 p.m.
#4
Thread Starter
I Love J Boqvist
Avatar of the user
Joined: Jan. 2023
Posts: 9,523
Likes: 2,482
Quoting: Caniac2000
This is all over the place

Svechnikov > Bratt, Aho > Hischier, Noesen > Holtz, Freddie >>>>>>>> any other goalie on here


Svechnikov had worse production last year, the year before, and is now coming off a torn ACL when his best ability is his speed.
Aho has shown what he is every year. an approximately PPG strong defensive C. And based on nico's performance last year, with 0 underlying factors to suggest a regression coming, he's = offensively and better defensively.

Freddie has been an average/below average starter in 3 of his last 4 years, and he's now 33. He was the worst of the 5 goalies listed last year, in sv%, gaa, and GSAx.

I really don't care about Noesen who's spent half his prime in the AHL vs a top prospect. If holtz disappoints it's not hard to find a scoring AHL/NHL tweener via prospects/cheap rental
Sep. 18, 2023 at 9:02 p.m.
#5
n.1 Topias Vilen fan
Avatar of the user
Joined: Jul. 2021
Posts: 5,887
Likes: 2,562
Quoting: dgibb10
Svechnikov had worse production last year, the year before, and is now coming off a torn ACL when his best ability is his speed.
Aho has shown what he is every year. an approximately PPG strong defensive C. And based on nico's performance last year, with 0 underlying factors to suggest a regression coming, he's = offensively and better defensively.

Freddie has been an average/below average starter in 3 of his last 4 years, and he's now 33. He was the worst of the 5 goalies listed last year, in sv%, gaa, and GSAx.

I really don't care about Noesen who's spent half his prime in the AHL vs a top prospect. If holtz disappoints it's not hard to find a scoring AHL/NHL tweener via prospects/cheap rental


I'll give them Noesen over Holtz purely because Noesen is an analytical darling, but I'm with you on the other points
dgibb10 liked this.
Sep. 19, 2023 at 8:08 a.m.
#6
Avatar of the user
Joined: May 2018
Posts: 18,512
Likes: 4,866
Quoting: dgibb10
Svechnikov had worse production last year, the year before, and is now coming off a torn ACL when his best ability is his speed.
Aho has shown what he is every year. an approximately PPG strong defensive C. And based on nico's performance last year, with 0 underlying factors to suggest a regression coming, he's = offensively and better defensively.

Freddie has been an average/below average starter in 3 of his last 4 years, and he's now 33. He was the worst of the 5 goalies listed last year, in sv%, gaa, and GSAx.

I really don't care about Noesen who's spent half his prime in the AHL vs a top prospect. If holtz disappoints it's not hard to find a scoring AHL/NHL tweener via prospects/cheap rental


Svechnikov's best ability isn't his speed. His best ability is his shot and the brute strength he has. Necas is the speedster. Svechnikov isn't slow, but he's FAR better in other areas. And Svechnikov's production would have been better last year than Bratts if not for the injury.

Hischier is not as good offensively. He hit 30 goals for the first time in his career last year, Aho's done it every year for the last 5 and would have had a 45 goal year if the pandemic had held off even for a month. Aho's also not *that* much worse defensively. Aho's clearly better than Hischier and is much more comparable to Hughes.

Freddie has been above average in the 2 years of the last 4 he wasn't asked to play hurt... including being robbed of a Vezina nomination, winning the Jennings, and oh, posting a .940 save percentage in the playoffs. He has a top 10 season all time that was like 10 years ago in GSAA. You MAJORLY underrate Freddie.

Holtz has 6 career NHL points. Noesen is coming off a season where he flirted with a half a PPG scoring rate. Come on now.
Sep. 19, 2023 at 10:17 a.m.
#7
Thread Starter
I Love J Boqvist
Avatar of the user
Joined: Jan. 2023
Posts: 9,523
Likes: 2,482
Quoting: Caniac2000
Svechnikov's best ability isn't his speed. His best ability is his shot and the brute strength he has. Necas is the speedster. Svechnikov isn't slow, but he's FAR better in other areas. And Svechnikov's production would have been better last year than Bratts if not for the injury.

Hischier is not as good offensively. He hit 30 goals for the first time in his career last year, Aho's done it every year for the last 5 and would have had a 45 goal year if the pandemic had held off even for a month. Aho's also not *that* much worse defensively. Aho's clearly better than Hischier and is much more comparable to Hughes.

Freddie has been above average in the 2 years of the last 4 he wasn't asked to play hurt... including being robbed of a Vezina nomination, winning the Jennings, and oh, posting a .940 save percentage in the playoffs. He has a top 10 season all time that was like 10 years ago in GSAA. You MAJORLY underrate Freddie.

Holtz has 6 career NHL points. Noesen is coming off a season where he flirted with a half a PPG scoring rate. Come on now.


Hischier had a better even strength scoring rate than Aho both of the last 2 years in addition to being better defensively, and overall the last 2 years they are within 0.03ppg. Idk how you can say that’s not comparable, when hischier has been BETTER the last 2 years. Hughes has been a solid 0.26 ppg better than aho the last 2 years, Aho isn’t in the same tier.

Of the 5 goalies I have listed here, Freddie was the WORST in GSAx, GAA, and sv% last year. He’s had a negative GSAx in 3/4 years. And you are severely overrating his 21-22 season.
Sep. 19, 2023 at 10:25 a.m.
#8
Avatar of the user
Joined: May 2018
Posts: 18,512
Likes: 4,866
Quoting: dgibb10
Hischier had a better even strength scoring rate than Aho both of the last 2 years in addition to being better defensively, and overall the last 2 years they are within 0.03ppg. Idk how you can say that’s not comparable, when hischier has been BETTER the last 2 years. Hughes has been a solid 0.26 ppg better than aho the last 2 years, Aho isn’t in the same tier.

Of the 5 goalies I have listed here, Freddie was the WORST in GSAx, GAA, and sv% last year. He’s had a negative GSAx in 3/4 years. And you are severely overrating his 21-22 season.


CtvFysxin3OAXcLiJ7AAAq1d69e7ds2RIdHW3xvgsAuEtE9gAAAIAe8AQtAAAAoAdE9gAAAIAeENkDAAAAekBkDwAAAOgBkT0AAACgB0T2AAAAgB4Q2QMAAAB68P8AuOPrbsvRtK8AAAAASUVORK5CYII.png?width=741&height=610

Aho's right there with Hughes, since you want to look at the underlying so much. There's a gap between Hischier and Hughes, and Aho is very much in it. He's closer to Hughes than Hischier. You point out the minor PPG rate difference, but ignore that Aho plays in a system that completely strangles offensive talent. Convenient.

It's almost like he had to play injured the entire first month of the season, like I said he did... Once he got back, he was absolutely fine. In the playoffs, Freddie had the 4th next GSAx of any goalie, only bettered by Hill, Shetserkin and Bob. If you want to look at GSAx/60, he's 5th, behind Campbell, Shesterkin, Bob and Sorokin. He was 3rd in High Danger Save Percentage Above Expected behind only Campbell and Wedgewood. You are SEVERELY underrating Freddie. When he's healthy, he's a top 10 goalie in the NHL. Vanacek and Schmid ain't that.

If you want a source on the numbers, it's all from money puck. You want to try and use a season he openly admitted to playing hurt in, so why not use a time when he was completely healthy and dominant? Or we can go back to the year before when only Shesterkin's analytical breaking season was better than Freddie. Come on now.
Sep. 19, 2023 at 2:26 p.m.
#9
Avatar of the user
Joined: Feb. 2023
Posts: 889
Likes: 392
Quoting: Schuyler
You've already been cooked by many people on the Aho and Hischier topic lets not revisit it


People commonly debate him then he throws a very cherry picked evolving hockey graph in your face. He's a nerd. Stuffed in a couple lockers as a kid
Sep. 19, 2023 at 2:33 p.m.
#10
Thread Starter
I Love J Boqvist
Avatar of the user
Joined: Jan. 2023
Posts: 9,523
Likes: 2,482
Quoting: Caniac2000
CtvFysxin3OAXcLiJ7AAAq1d69e7ds2RIdHW3xvgsAuEtE9gAAAIAe8AQtAAAAoAdE9gAAAIAeENkDAAAAekBkDwAAAOgBkT0AAACgB0T2AAAAgB4Q2QMAAAB68P8AuOPrbsvRtK8AAAAASUVORK5CYII.png?width=741&height=610

Aho's right there with Hughes, since you want to look at the underlying so much. There's a gap between Hischier and Hughes, and Aho is very much in it. He's closer to Hughes than Hischier. You point out the minor PPG rate difference, but ignore that Aho plays in a system that completely strangles offensive talent. Convenient.

It's almost like he had to play injured the entire first month of the season, like I said he did... Once he got back, he was absolutely fine. In the playoffs, Freddie had the 4th next GSAx of any goalie, only bettered by Hill, Shetserkin and Bob. If you want to look at GSAx/60, he's 5th, behind Campbell, Shesterkin, Bob and Sorokin. He was 3rd in High Danger Save Percentage Above Expected behind only Campbell and Wedgewood. You are SEVERELY underrating Freddie. When he's healthy, he's a top 10 goalie in the NHL. Vanacek and Schmid ain't that.

If you want a source on the numbers, it's all from money puck. You want to try and use a season he openly admitted to playing hurt in, so why not use a time when he was completely healthy and dominant? Or we can go back to the year before when only Shesterkin's analytical breaking season was better than Freddie. Come on now.


Your own chart shows hughes as being much more productive than Aho. GF/60 charts, outside of cases with unsustainable shooting luck (like kuzmenko/horvat for example), are much more accurate in determining a players value, as actual scoring is impacted heavily by a player's scoring skill. That is why evolving hockey uses actual goal production for offensive talent, (which you could read about if you actually took the time to understand the stats you spout). And defensively, it once again shows jack as better at preventing chances against, in this case xGA and CA are more valuable and meaningful because a skater has little impact on the shooting of opponents and goaltending behind him.

Thank you for proving my point with a chart that shows Hughes as better on both sides of the ice.

Wow so the 33 year old who can't stay healthy for a full season. good to know. that really helps his case. below average in 19-20, below average in 20-21, great in 21-22, great in 22-23
Sep. 19, 2023 at 2:35 p.m.
#11
Thread Starter
I Love J Boqvist
Avatar of the user
Joined: Jan. 2023
Posts: 9,523
Likes: 2,482
Quoting: dougford
People commonly debate him then he throws a very cherry picked evolving hockey graph in your face. He's a nerd. Stuffed in a couple lockers as a kid


He doesn't even understand the evolving hockey graphs he spouts. offensively actual goalscoring matters more as you have control over it. This is where virtually all of Carolina fails to live up to their metrics, because their xGoals numbers have been fake as hell for years.
Sep. 19, 2023 at 2:43 p.m.
#12
Thread Starter
I Love J Boqvist
Avatar of the user
Joined: Jan. 2023
Posts: 9,523
Likes: 2,482
Quoting: Caniac2000
CtvFysxin3OAXcLiJ7AAAq1d69e7ds2RIdHW3xvgsAuEtE9gAAAIAe8AQtAAAAoAdE9gAAAIAeENkDAAAAekBkDwAAAOgBkT0AAACgB0T2AAAAgB4Q2QMAAAB68P8AuOPrbsvRtK8AAAAASUVORK5CYII.png?width=741&height=610

Aho's right there with Hughes, since you want to look at the underlying so much. There's a gap between Hischier and Hughes, and Aho is very much in it. He's closer to Hughes than Hischier. You point out the minor PPG rate difference, but ignore that Aho plays in a system that completely strangles offensive talent. Convenient.

It's almost like he had to play injured the entire first month of the season, like I said he did... Once he got back, he was absolutely fine. In the playoffs, Freddie had the 4th next GSAx of any goalie, only bettered by Hill, Shetserkin and Bob. If you want to look at GSAx/60, he's 5th, behind Campbell, Shesterkin, Bob and Sorokin. He was 3rd in High Danger Save Percentage Above Expected behind only Campbell and Wedgewood. You are SEVERELY underrating Freddie. When he's healthy, he's a top 10 goalie in the NHL. Vanacek and Schmid ain't that.

If you want a source on the numbers, it's all from money puck. You want to try and use a season he openly admitted to playing hurt in, so why not use a time when he was completely healthy and dominant? Or we can go back to the year before when only Shesterkin's analytical breaking season was better than Freddie. Come on now.


And specifically regarding carolina's fake ass xGoals, they have failed to live up to their xGoals number, often by 20-40 goals, every single year since 2008. I don't know if it's ****ty tracking, but carolina's xGoals numbers aren't all that meaningful to me at this point
Sep. 19, 2023 at 5:13 p.m.
#13
Avatar of the user
Joined: May 2018
Posts: 18,512
Likes: 4,866
Quoting: dgibb10
Your own chart shows hughes as being much more productive than Aho. GF/60 charts, outside of cases with unsustainable shooting luck (like kuzmenko/horvat for example), are much more accurate in determining a players value, as actual scoring is impacted heavily by a player's scoring skill. That is why evolving hockey uses actual goal production for offensive talent, (which you could read about if you actually took the time to understand the stats you spout). And defensively, it once again shows jack as better at preventing chances against, in this case xGA and CA are more valuable and meaningful because a skater has little impact on the shooting of opponents and goaltending behind him.

Thank you for proving my point with a chart that shows Hughes as better on both sides of the ice.

Wow so the 33 year old who can't stay healthy for a full season. good to know. that really helps his case. below average in 19-20, below average in 20-21, great in 21-22, great in 22-23


It shows his GF was better, but if you read, they say Aho's actually the better player. Something people love to point out with RAPM charts is that they do not account for system, QoT, QoC or a few other things. Aho has a giant leash on his offensive upside under Rod. This isn't new or controversial. Look at players that come in, their xGF falls through the floor because Rod doesn't allow for quality shot chances so much as shot volume. It's an olf-fashioned system and would probably be better if the Canes were more free flowing. You also are keen to mention unless there is an unsustainable shooting percentage, which Hughes probably doesn't have? 12.8 is probably sustainable for someone of his skillset, although I wouldn't be shocked if he was going at 10% next year because he's a human being. But if we flip this and look at Aho, who shot 16% last season and has done over the last 4 years, that also implies that Aho's skillset is better. Hughes is much more talented in terms of the tools he has, but there is definitely a world where Aho outproduced Hughes next year and we revisit this. Hughes is an absolute stud, but the disrepect Aho gets is mad.

The chart shows Aho's actually probably better at this point, but you know, you probably believe points are the be all and end all so I don't blame you.

Andersen was fine in 2019-20... what do you mean? He had a tragic October, he usually does, but he was on pace for his usual save percentage and xGSA stats. They were truncated by the pandemic, and then you saw in All or Nothing he was made to play hurt during the bubble. But it doesn't fit your narrative so you'll discount it.

Quoting: dgibb10
And specifically regarding carolina's fake ass xGoals, they have failed to live up to their xGoals number, often by 20-40 goals, every single year since 2008. I don't know if it's ****ty tracking, but carolina's xGoals numbers aren't all that meaningful to me at this point


As I've said, Carolina's xG differential was talent under Peters, Maurice, and Mueller. It just wasn't a good roster. Since Waddell took over, it's Rod. You can see the talent that comes through Carolina go elsewhere and succeed. Nic Roy, Erik Haua, Warren Foegele, Vincent Trocheck, Nino Niederreiter... the entire system works on low danger chances stemming from point shots. The teams xG stats and they defensemen are inflated. Definitely. The forwards probably have deflated numbers because they aren't in a position to generate so much. It's how a forward like Stef Noesen who lives at the edge of the crease scores 13 goals, like he did last season.
Sep. 19, 2023 at 9:46 p.m.
#14
Thread Starter
I Love J Boqvist
Avatar of the user
Joined: Jan. 2023
Posts: 9,523
Likes: 2,482
Quoting: Caniac2000
It shows his GF was better, but if you read, they say Aho's actually the better player. Something people love to point out with RAPM charts is that they do not account for system, QoT, QoC or a few other things. Aho has a giant leash on his offensive upside under Rod. This isn't new or controversial. Look at players that come in, their xGF falls through the floor because Rod doesn't allow for quality shot chances so much as shot volume. It's an olf-fashioned system and would probably be better if the Canes were more free flowing. You also are keen to mention unless there is an unsustainable shooting percentage, which Hughes probably doesn't have? 12.8 is probably sustainable for someone of his skillset, although I wouldn't be shocked if he was going at 10% next year because he's a human being. But if we flip this and look at Aho, who shot 16% last season and has done over the last 4 years, that also implies that Aho's skillset is better. Hughes is much more talented in terms of the tools he has, but there is definitely a world where Aho outproduced Hughes next year and we revisit this. Hughes is an absolute stud, but the disrepect Aho gets is mad.

The chart shows Aho's actually probably better at this point, but you know, you probably believe points are the be all and end all so I don't blame you.

Andersen was fine in 2019-20... what do you mean? He had a tragic October, he usually does, but he was on pace for his usual save percentage and xGSA stats. They were truncated by the pandemic, and then you saw in All or Nothing he was made to play hurt during the bubble. But it doesn't fit your narrative so you'll discount it.



As I've said, Carolina's xG differential was talent under Peters, Maurice, and Mueller. It just wasn't a good roster. Since Waddell took over, it's Rod. You can see the talent that comes through Carolina go elsewhere and succeed. Nic Roy, Erik Haua, Warren Foegele, Vincent Trocheck, Nino Niederreiter... the entire system works on low danger chances stemming from point shots. The teams xG stats and they defensemen are inflated. Definitely. The forwards probably have deflated numbers because they aren't in a position to generate so much. It's how a forward like Stef Noesen who lives at the edge of the crease scores 13 goals, like he did last season.


15 consecutive years of underperforming to the tune of something like 400 total goals below expectation makes you start to question things.

Their xGoal stats are inflated yes. They consistently fail to actually perform.

Hughes is tiers above Aho offensively. Aho is a ppg player, hischier is a ppg player, hughes is a 100 point player (who's going to be even better this year).
Sep. 19, 2023 at 10:09 p.m.
#15
Thread Starter
I Love J Boqvist
Avatar of the user
Joined: Jan. 2023
Posts: 9,523
Likes: 2,482
Quoting: Caniac2000
It shows his GF was better, but if you read, they say Aho's actually the better player. Something people love to point out with RAPM charts is that they do not account for system, QoT, QoC or a few other things. Aho has a giant leash on his offensive upside under Rod. This isn't new or controversial. Look at players that come in, their xGF falls through the floor because Rod doesn't allow for quality shot chances so much as shot volume. It's an olf-fashioned system and would probably be better if the Canes were more free flowing. You also are keen to mention unless there is an unsustainable shooting percentage, which Hughes probably doesn't have? 12.8 is probably sustainable for someone of his skillset, although I wouldn't be shocked if he was going at 10% next year because he's a human being. But if we flip this and look at Aho, who shot 16% last season and has done over the last 4 years, that also implies that Aho's skillset is better. Hughes is much more talented in terms of the tools he has, but there is definitely a world where Aho outproduced Hughes next year and we revisit this. Hughes is an absolute stud, but the disrepect Aho gets is mad.

The chart shows Aho's actually probably better at this point, but you know, you probably believe points are the be all and end all so I don't blame you.

Andersen was fine in 2019-20... what do you mean? He had a tragic October, he usually does, but he was on pace for his usual save percentage and xGSA stats. They were truncated by the pandemic, and then you saw in All or Nothing he was made to play hurt during the bubble. But it doesn't fit your narrative so you'll discount it.



As I've said, Carolina's xG differential was talent under Peters, Maurice, and Mueller. It just wasn't a good roster. Since Waddell took over, it's Rod. You can see the talent that comes through Carolina go elsewhere and succeed. Nic Roy, Erik Haua, Warren Foegele, Vincent Trocheck, Nino Niederreiter... the entire system works on low danger chances stemming from point shots. The teams xG stats and they defensemen are inflated. Definitely. The forwards probably have deflated numbers because they aren't in a position to generate so much. It's how a forward like Stef Noesen who lives at the edge of the crease scores 13 goals, like he did last season.


But I can't wait for Aho's 35g 80p season, hischier's 35g 85p selke season, and hughes 110 point season while you still insist aho is on hughes' tier
Sep. 20, 2023 at 5:22 a.m.
#16
Avatar of the user
Joined: May 2018
Posts: 18,512
Likes: 4,866
Quoting: dgibb10
15 consecutive years of underperforming to the tune of something like 400 total goals below expectation makes you start to question things.

Their xGoal stats are inflated yes. They consistently fail to actually perform.

Hughes is tiers above Aho offensively. Aho is a ppg player, hischier is a ppg player, hughes is a 100 point player (who's going to be even better this year).


The defensemen's xG is inflated, the forwards are probably deflated. We just went through this
Sep. 20, 2023 at 5:23 a.m.
#17
Avatar of the user
Joined: May 2018
Posts: 18,512
Likes: 4,866
Quoting: dgibb10
But I can't wait for Aho's 35g 80p season, hischier's 35g 85p selke season, and hughes 110 point season while you still insist aho is on hughes' tier


When we're sitting here in June after Hischier had a 60 point season, Aho had a 85 point season, and Hughes had a 90 point season, will you shut up then?
Sep. 20, 2023 at 11:36 a.m.
#18
Thread Starter
I Love J Boqvist
Avatar of the user
Joined: Jan. 2023
Posts: 9,523
Likes: 2,482
Quoting: Caniac2000
When we're sitting here in June after Hischier had a 60 point season, Aho had a 85 point season, and Hughes had a 90 point season, will you shut up then?


so you expect the 21 and 24 year olds to regress, while the 26 year old reaches a level he's never reached before??
Carleton liked this.
Sep. 20, 2023 at 11:38 a.m.
#19
Thread Starter
I Love J Boqvist
Avatar of the user
Joined: Jan. 2023
Posts: 9,523
Likes: 2,482
Quoting: Caniac2000
The defensemen's xG is inflated, the forwards are probably deflated. We just went through this


That's simply not true. The canes forwards have also consistently shot below their expectation, suggesting their xGoals are also inflated
Carleton liked this.
Sep. 20, 2023 at 11:32 p.m.
#20
Avatar of the user
Joined: Feb. 2023
Posts: 889
Likes: 392
Quoting: dgibb10
He doesn't even understand the evolving hockey graphs he spouts. offensively actual goalscoring matters more as you have control over it. This is where virtually all of Carolina fails to live up to their metrics, because their xGoals numbers have been fake as hell for years.


Don't take it too personal. He's kind of like the court jester on capfriendly. Known for telling you that all of your players are overrated but does the SAME thing with his guys.

The charts do NOT account for quality of competition, which Aho's is relatively low. His numbers are inflated because he doesn't play against a significant quality of competition. He's a 70-80pt player, but Hischier plays a MUCHH higher quality of competition and is a Selke caliber center.
Hughes is also better offensively and has a much higher ceiling than Aho.

The fact that he will argue otherwise until he's blue in the face is hilarious. I've had run ins with him many times where he tells me Toronto players are merely cap dumps despite being better than the ones he's comparing them to. Insane

And once you talk him into a corner or poke holes in his logic, he has a hissy fit and will add you to his ignore list.
 
Reply
To create a post please Login or Register
Question:
Options:
Add Option
Submit Poll