SalarySwishSalarySwish
Forums/Armchair-GM

Top 23-24 regression candidates

Created by: Byrr
Team: 2023-24 Custom Team
Initial Creation Date: Sep. 26, 2023
Published: Sep. 26, 2023
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
11$83,500,000$56,777,777$0$0$26,722,223
Left WingCentreRight Wing
Logo of the Dallas Stars
$9,500,000$9,500,000
LW, C
NMC
UFA - 2
Ullmark, Linus
$777,777$777,777
Logo of the Nashville Predators
$4,500,000$4,500,000
RD
UFA - 1
Logo of the Anaheim Ducks
$6,250,000$6,250,000
RW, LW
NTC
UFA - 4
Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
$6,250,000$6,250,000
LD
NMC
UFA - 5
Logo of the Vancouver Canucks
$5,500,000$5,500,000
LW, RW
M-NTC
UFA - 2
Logo of the Pittsburgh Penguins
$10,000,000$10,000,000
RD
NMC
UFA - 4
Logo of the New Jersey Devils
$2,125,000$2,125,000
RW, LW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$5,125,000$5,125,000
LW, C
NMC
UFA - 6
Logo of the Arizona Coyotes
$1,750,000$1,750,000
C, RW
UFA - 1
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
Logo of the Boston Bruins
$5,000,000$5,000,000
G
M-NTC
UFA - 2

Embed Code

  • To display this team on another website or blog, add this iFrame to the appropriate page
  • Customize the height attribute in the iFrame code below to fit your website appropriately. Minimum recommended: 400px.

Text-Embed

Click to Highlight
Sep. 26, 2023 at 7:22 a.m.
#1
Leafs going to Leafs
Avatar of the user
Joined: Dec. 2022
Posts: 10,481
Likes: 3,180
McDavid should be on here just bc I think he goes back to roughly 120 points
Sep. 26, 2023 at 7:25 a.m.
#2
Thread Starter
Avatar of the user
Joined: Jul. 2019
Posts: 6,350
Likes: 3,063
Quoting: Leafsfan98
McDavid should be on here just bc I think he goes back to roughly 120 points


Why? What will have changed for McDavid this season from last that would wind up with him scoring 30 less points? Nugent Hopkins for example outshot his career shooting % by a fair margin and led the league in secondary assists, a stat that doesn't often repeat itself with how random secondary assists end up being.
Sep. 26, 2023 at 7:26 a.m.
#3
Leafs going to Leafs
Avatar of the user
Joined: Dec. 2022
Posts: 10,481
Likes: 3,180
Quoting: Byrr
Why? What will have changed for McDavid this season from last that would wind up with him scoring 30 less points?


Everyone knowing he scored 150 points... And I expect the PP to take a regression in terms of efficiency and number of chances

McDavid had only 4 more EV points this year compared to last year...
Sep. 26, 2023 at 7:26 a.m.
#4
Avatar of the user
Joined: Mar. 2017
Posts: 24,327
Likes: 7,846
Quoting: Leafsfan98
McDavid should be on here just bc I think he goes back to roughly 120 points


Quoting: Byrr
Why? What will have changed for McDavid this season from last that would wind up with him scoring 30 less points? Nugent Hopkins for example outshot his career shooting % by a fair margin and led the league in secondary assists, a stat that doesn't often repeat itself with how random secondary assists end up being.


Crosby suggested we could see 170 from McDavid this year.
Sep. 26, 2023 at 7:31 a.m.
#5
Leafs going to Leafs
Avatar of the user
Joined: Dec. 2022
Posts: 10,481
Likes: 3,180
Quoting: CD282
Crosby suggested we could see 170 from McDavid this year.


That would mean either he actually takes a step forward at EV or the PP gets up to like 40% efficiency which I don't see happening
Sep. 26, 2023 at 7:32 a.m.
#6
Thread Starter
Avatar of the user
Joined: Jul. 2019
Posts: 6,350
Likes: 3,063
Quoting: Leafsfan98
Everyone knowing he scored 150 points... And I expect the PP to take a regression in terms of efficiency and number of chances

McDavid had only 4 more EV points this year compared to last year...


Again, why? Why would their PP take a big hit in terms of efficiency? It's all the same players except Barrie ... but their PP actually got better after Barrie was traded last season.

Hell, even beyond that. The Oilers have the best PP across the last 3 seasons at 29%. They had 275 PPs last season. Even if they regressed to the 3 year average, it would only be 9 less goals scored. When talking about the biggest regression in the league, 6-7 points from the PP will get you part way there but there's still a lot of room to make up elsewhere. You are right, McDavid might not score 150 point again but there's no data that would suggest he drops down to something like 120 or that we should expect big drop offs like the above names.
Sep. 26, 2023 at 7:35 a.m.
#7
Avatar of the user
Joined: Mar. 2017
Posts: 24,327
Likes: 7,846
Quoting: Leafsfan98
That would mean either he actually takes a step forward at EV or the PP gets up to like 40% efficiency which I don't see happening

Do you not think taking a step forward at EV is possible, even probable?
Sep. 26, 2023 at 7:39 a.m.
#8
Leafs going to Leafs
Avatar of the user
Joined: Dec. 2022
Posts: 10,481
Likes: 3,180
Quoting: Byrr
Again, why? Why would their PP take a big hit in terms of efficiency? It's all the same players except Barrie ... but their PP actually got better after Barrie was traded last season.

Hell, even beyond that. The Oilers have the best PP across the last 3 seasons at 29%. They had 275 PPs last season. Even if they regressed to the 3 year average, it would only be 9 less goals scored. When talking about the biggest regression in the league, 6-7 points from the PP will get you part way there but there's still a lot of room to make up elsewhere. You are right, McDavid might not score 150 point again but its highly unlikely he drops down to something like 120.


McDavid PP points comp to actual points last 4 years:
55 points per 82 - 124 per 82
54 points per 82 - 153.75 per 82
45 points per 82 - 126 per 82
71 points per 82 - 153 per 82

I'm just pointing it out... And I think team will have a game plan come into this year
Sep. 26, 2023 at 7:41 a.m.
#9
Leafs going to Leafs
Avatar of the user
Joined: Dec. 2022
Posts: 10,481
Likes: 3,180
Quoting: CD282
Do you not think taking a step forward at EV is possible, even probable?


For him... Maybe but I find it unlikely as he's consistently been around a PPG at EV
Sep. 26, 2023 at 7:41 a.m.
#10
Thread Starter
Avatar of the user
Joined: Jul. 2019
Posts: 6,350
Likes: 3,063
Quoting: Leafsfan98
McDavid PP points comp to actual points last 4 years:
55 points per 82 - 124 per 82
54 points per 82 - 153.75 per 82
45 points per 82 - 126 per 82
71 points per 82 - 153 per 82

I'm just pointing it out... And I think team will have a game plan come into this year


Edmonton has been one of the top PP units for 5-6 straight seasons. They are a team who has consistently lost or come close to losing at 5on5 and won games on the PP. What's different now than it was say going into last season or the season before? What new incentive is there?
Sep. 26, 2023 at 7:43 a.m.
#11
Leafs going to Leafs
Avatar of the user
Joined: Dec. 2022
Posts: 10,481
Likes: 3,180
Quoting: Byrr
Edmonton has been one of the top PP units for 5-6 straight seasons. What's different now than it was say going into last season?


The Oilers didn't have a 30%+ PP percentage
Sep. 26, 2023 at 7:45 a.m.
#12
Thread Starter
Avatar of the user
Joined: Jul. 2019
Posts: 6,350
Likes: 3,063
Quoting: Leafsfan98
The Oilers didn't have a 30%+ PP percentage


No, they just led the league with numbers like 27-29%. Do you think 1-3% better PP conversion rate is going to make coaches think drastically different to stop the 9 goals across 82 games for the Oilers? Where's the incentive?
Sep. 26, 2023 at 7:47 a.m.
#13
Avatar of the user
Joined: Mar. 2017
Posts: 24,327
Likes: 7,846
Quoting: Leafsfan98
For him... Maybe but I find it unlikely as he's consistently been around a PPG at EV


He played 35% of his 5v5 TOI with Draisaitl last season. If the coach increased that, you'd see McDavid's 5v5 scoring rates increase too. It's that simple.

Also, you think NHL teams will gameplan for McDavid this year? Why haven't they thought of this before!?
Sep. 26, 2023 at 8:11 a.m.
#14
Leafs going to Leafs
Avatar of the user
Joined: Dec. 2022
Posts: 10,481
Likes: 3,180
Quoting: Byrr
No, they just led the league with numbers like 27-29%. Do you think 1-3% better PP conversion rate is going to make coaches think drastically different to stop the 9 goals across 82 games for the Oilers? Where's the incentive?


26% to 32.4% is a pretty big difference, especially over multiple hundreds of sample sizes...
Sep. 26, 2023 at 8:22 a.m.
#15
Avatar of the user
Joined: Nov. 2017
Posts: 28,604
Likes: 15,037
Quoting: Leafsfan98
26% to 32.4% is a pretty big difference, especially over multiple hundreds of sample sizes...


He literally pointed out its 9 goals total

Like 3 times he wrote it.

You quoted it multiple times
Sep. 26, 2023 at 8:50 a.m.
#16
Leafs going to Leafs
Avatar of the user
Joined: Dec. 2022
Posts: 10,481
Likes: 3,180
Quoting: CD282
He played 35% of his 5v5 TOI with Draisaitl last season. If the coach increased that, you'd see McDavid's 5v5 scoring rates increase too. It's that simple.

Also, you think NHL teams will gameplan for McDavid this year? Why haven't they thought of this before!?


Difference is, Draisaitl's not much of a EV player...

And teams have another year to do so... With another year and even more time to breakdown his game...
Sep. 26, 2023 at 8:52 a.m.
#17
Leafs going to Leafs
Avatar of the user
Joined: Dec. 2022
Posts: 10,481
Likes: 3,180
Quoting: littlejerryseinfeld
He literally pointed out its 9 goals total

Like 3 times he wrote it.

You quoted it multiple times


It's roughly a 15 point jump... which is significant... That's the difference between 153 points and 137 points etc.
Sep. 26, 2023 at 9:55 a.m.
#18
Avatar of the user
Joined: Mar. 2017
Posts: 24,327
Likes: 7,846
Quoting: Leafsfan98
Difference is, Draisaitl's not much of a EV player...

And teams have another year to do so... With another year and even more time to breakdown his game...

LOL. Teams have been game planning for McDavid for the better part of a decade - what makes you think THIS year will be different?

tears of joy
Sep. 26, 2023 at 10:37 a.m.
#19
Avatar of the user
Joined: Jun. 2019
Posts: 39,614
Likes: 20,405
You don't think Huberdeau will have even a slight bounceback?
Sep. 26, 2023 at 10:40 a.m.
#20
I Love J Boqvist
Avatar of the user
Joined: Jan. 2023
Posts: 13,697
Likes: 3,714
Pettersson
Sep. 26, 2023 at 10:44 a.m.
#21
Rip
Avatar of the user
Joined: Dec. 2022
Posts: 12,371
Likes: 3,250
Quoting: CD282
Crosby suggested we could see 170 from McDavid this year.


As long as McDavid plays a full season healthy. Not much regression will happen in Edmonton. If he was to get hurt for a long time 20 or more games, everyone on the Oilers will see a massive drop in points.
CD282 liked this.
Sep. 26, 2023 at 10:46 a.m.
#22
Rip
Avatar of the user
Joined: Dec. 2022
Posts: 12,371
Likes: 3,250
Quoting: CD282
He played 35% of his 5v5 TOI with Draisaitl last season. If the coach increased that, you'd see McDavid's 5v5 scoring rates increase too. It's that simple.

Also, you think NHL teams will gameplan for McDavid this year? Why haven't they thought of this before!?


It was closer to 40%. 39% of his 5v5 minutes with McDavid. Which likely is more than half his 5v5 points if not closer to 3/4s. McDavid is the big driver on the Oilers.
Sep. 26, 2023 at 11:28 a.m.
#23
Avatar of the user
Joined: Mar. 2017
Posts: 24,327
Likes: 7,846
Quoting: RipNasty
It was closer to 40%. 39% of his 5v5 minutes with McDavid. Which likely is more than half his 5v5 points if not closer to 3/4s. McDavid is the big driver on the Oilers.

We're talking about McDavid. He played 1308:16 minutes total at 5v5 last season, 469:18 of those were with Draisaitl. If you do the math you'll see that McDavid spent exactly 35.8719% of his 5v5 TOI with Draisaitl.

Over the past 3 years they've spent 1104:57 together at 5v5, with an on ice scoring rate of 4.45 GF/60.
Apart, McDavid's on ice scoring rate is 3.16 GF/60 in 2469:03.
Apart, Draisaitl's on ice scoring rate is 2.90 GF/60 in 2359:31.

- Therefore McDavid's scoring rate is 40.82% BETTER when he's with Draisaitl than when he isn't. Draisaitl's on ice scoring rate is 53.45% better when he's with McDavid than when he isn't.
- Over the past 3 seasons McDavid has spent 30.92% of his 5v5 TOI with Draisaitl.
- Over the past 3 seasons Draisaitl has spent 31.89% of his 5v5 TOI with McDavid.

It's clearly a symbiotic relationship between two great players, McDavid being the better of the two.

As Crosby said, McDavid is the best player in the league, but Nate and Leon are right there.
Sep. 26, 2023 at 11:34 a.m.
#24
Leafs going to Leafs
Avatar of the user
Joined: Dec. 2022
Posts: 10,481
Likes: 3,180
Quoting: CD282
LOL. Teams have been game planning for McDavid for the better part of a decade - what makes you think THIS year will be different?

tears of joy


That he actually put up 150 points... But put up similar EV numbers as his last years
Sep. 26, 2023 at 11:55 a.m.
#25
Avatar of the user
Joined: Mar. 2017
Posts: 24,327
Likes: 7,846
Quoting: RipNasty
It was closer to 40%. 39% of his 5v5 minutes with McDavid. Which likely is more than half his 5v5 points if not closer to 3/4s. McDavid is the big driver on the Oilers.


Quoting: CD282
We're talking about McDavid. He played 1308:16 minutes total at 5v5 last season, 469:18 of those were with Draisaitl. If you do the math you'll see that McDavid spent exactly 35.8719% of his 5v5 TOI with Draisaitl.

Over the past 3 years they've spent 1104:57 together at 5v5, with an on ice scoring rate of 4.45 GF/60.
Apart, McDavid's on ice scoring rate is 3.16 GF/60 in 2469:03.
Apart, Draisaitl's on ice scoring rate is 2.90 GF/60 in 2359:31.

- Therefore McDavid's scoring rate is 40.82% BETTER when he's with Draisaitl than when he isn't. Draisaitl's on ice scoring rate is 53.45% better when he's with McDavid than when he isn't.
- Over the past 3 seasons McDavid has spent 30.92% of his 5v5 TOI with Draisaitl.
- Over the past 3 seasons Draisaitl has spent 31.89% of his 5v5 TOI with McDavid.

It's clearly a symbiotic relationship between two great players, McDavid being the better of the two.

As Crosby said, McDavid is the best player in the league, but Nate and Leon are right there.

To add to this, because I know it's the single stat that you are MOST interested in in the entire world:

Over the past 3 seasons Draisaitl has spent 31.89% of his 5v5 TOI with McDavid and scored 41.38% of his points in that span.

On the flip side, over the past 3 seasons McDavid has spent 30.92% of his 5v5 TOI with Draisaitl and scored 35.84% of his points in that span.
 
Reply
To create a post please Login or Register
Question:
Options:
Add Option
Submit Poll