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Forums/Armchair-GM

Masterpiece II

Created by: Dunshire
Team: 2023-24 Buffalo Sabres
Initial Creation Date: Sep. 17, 2023
Published: Sep. 26, 2023
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Description
Six years ago, I built a predictive model called M.A.S.T.E.R.P.I.E.C.E. My model uses an Organic Statistical Extrapolator ('OSE' for short) to project a player's relative Victory Ration ('VR' for short). The model has accurately predicted the last six Stanley Cup winners, in addition to the President's Trophy winners and 98% of the regular season division winners. Sometimes, I play around with the model and give it a theoretical variance matrix to project hypothetical team performance composites. My calculations give this team an 86% chance of winning the Stanley Cup after the 2024-25 season, provided they make these trades before the end of the 2023-24 season. Furthermore, my behavioral flux indicator predicts the trade partners in each scenario to be 78% likely to execute each transaction in real life.
Trades
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Buried
DraftRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7
2024
Logo of the BUF
Logo of the BUF
Logo of the BUF
Logo of the BUF
Logo of the BUF
2025
Logo of the BUF
Logo of the BUF
Logo of the BUF
Logo of the BUF
Logo of the MIN
Logo of the BUF
Logo of the BUF
Logo of the BUF
Logo of the NSH
2026
Logo of the BUF
Logo of the BUF
Logo of the BUF
Logo of the BUF
Logo of the BUF
Logo of the BUF
Logo of the BUF
ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
20$83,500,000$82,381,071$0$2,707,500$1,118,929
Left WingCentreRight Wing
Logo of the Buffalo Sabres
$9,000,000$9,000,000
LW, RW
NMC
UFA - 4
Logo of the Buffalo Sabres
$7,142,857$7,142,857
C
UFA - 7
Logo of the Buffalo Sabres
$4,750,000$4,750,000
RW, LW
M-NTC
UFA - 3
Logo of the Buffalo Sabres
$855,833$855,833 (Performance Bonus$32,500$32K)
LW, RW
RFA - 2
Logo of the Buffalo Sabres
$7,100,000$7,100,000
C, LW
UFA - 7
Logo of the Minnesota Wild
$7,000,000$7,000,000
RW, LW
UFA - 7
Logo of the Philadelphia Flyers
$3,000,000$3,000,000
C, LW
UFA - 3
Logo of the Philadelphia Flyers
$2,625,000$2,625,000
C, LW
RFA - 2
Logo of the Buffalo Sabres
$863,333$863,333 (Performance Bonus$850,000$850K)
RW, LW
RFA - 2
Logo of the Buffalo Sabres
$2,500,000$2,500,000
LW, C
UFA - 1
Logo of the New York Rangers
$3,641,667$3,641,667
C, LW
M-NTC
UFA - 4
Logo of the Buffalo Sabres
$2,500,000$2,500,000 (Performance Bonus$500,000$500K)
RW
UFA - 1
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
Logo of the Buffalo Sabres
$6,000,000$6,000,000
LD/RD
UFA - 1
Logo of the St. Louis Blues
$6,500,000$6,500,000
RD
NTC
UFA - 7
Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
$6,166,667$6,166,667
G
NMC
UFA - 1
Logo of the Buffalo Sabres
$4,285,714$4,285,714
LD
UFA - 7
Logo of the New York Rangers
$925,000$925,000 (Performance Bonus$400,000$400K)
RD
RFA - 1
Logo of the Buffalo Sabres
$925,000$925,000 (Performance Bonus$925,000$925K)
G
RFA - 2
Logo of the Minnesota Wild
$2,450,000$2,450,000
LD
UFA - 2
Logo of the Buffalo Sabres
$3,250,000$3,250,000
RD
UFA - 1

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Sep. 26, 2023 at 1:29 p.m.
#1
Danny B is here
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Joined: Jun. 2023
Posts: 5,370
Likes: 2,080
Flyers decline lol Cates is untouchable and if you think Cates + Laughton = Rossi + 2 cap dumps ur sorely mistaken
Moss_Bucket liked this.
Sep. 26, 2023 at 1:36 p.m.
#2
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Joined: Feb. 2023
Posts: 3,679
Likes: 1,510
Drury says no chance but keep dreaming.
Sep. 26, 2023 at 1:54 p.m.
#3
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Joined: Sep. 2020
Posts: 6,456
Likes: 2,587
Not sure why anyone would think NYR would make that deal lol
Sep. 26, 2023 at 1:54 p.m.
#4
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Joined: Aug. 2020
Posts: 5,887
Likes: 3,673
I love hockey fanfic lol
Sep. 26, 2023 at 2:26 p.m.
#5
mokumboi
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Joined: Apr. 2019
Posts: 30,110
Likes: 11,608
Muh huh. My model, called the DENNIS system, indicates that there's a 198267% chance the Blues and Flyers throw you out of their office. These values are all over the shop.
AC14 and Moss_Bucket liked this.
Sep. 26, 2023 at 2:58 p.m.
#6
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Joined: Jun. 2020
Posts: 4,528
Likes: 3,194
There is a 1000% chance Minnesota says HELL NO to that trade.

I doubt they'd take both Mittelstadt AND Power for Boldy alone at this point. Boldy is untouchable.
Sep. 26, 2023 at 3:07 p.m.
#7
Lets go fishing
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Joined: Jul. 2023
Posts: 432
Likes: 230
This is actually a reasonable proposal for Hellebuyck, I think Jets take it if he won't sign by TDL.
Sep. 26, 2023 at 3:16 p.m.
#8
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Joined: Dec. 2022
Posts: 3,046
Likes: 1,543
Quoting: mokumboi
Muh huh. My model, called the DENNIS system, indicates that there's a 198267% chance the Blues and Flyers throw you out of their office. These values are all over the shop.


Concur with the DENNIS system.

Blues don’t need depth. Virtually 0 use for Jost and or Comrie. Moving from Parayko to Jokiharju would be a nuclear disaster as well. Highly doubt the Blues really have any interest in moving Parayko at this point although chart lovers seem to beleive he’s useless. Maybe revisit next off-season if 2 of Faulk, Krug or Leddy are moved and they decide to go scorched earth with the d men.
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Sep. 26, 2023 at 3:54 p.m.
#9
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Joined: Jan. 2022
Posts: 3,239
Likes: 1,540
The blues have no interest in moving Parayko. He is still our best defensemen. Don't care for Jost for Comrie and Jokiharju can't play the minutes and usage Parayko gets
mokumboi liked this.
Sep. 26, 2023 at 4:40 p.m.
#10
See you space cowboy
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Joined: May 2023
Posts: 2,120
Likes: 1,170
Quoting: AC14
Concur with the DENNIS system.

Blues don’t need depth. Virtually 0 use for Jost and or Comrie. Moving from Parayko to Jokiharju would be a nuclear disaster as well. Highly doubt the Blues really have any interest in moving Parayko at this point although chart lovers seem to beleive he’s useless. Maybe revisit next off-season if 2 of Faulk, Krug or Leddy are moved and they decide to go scorched earth with the d men.


DENNIS system is spot on here. Philly and St. Louis share a beer afterwards too.
mokumboi and AC14 liked this.
 
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