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2023-2024 NHL Discussion Thread #2: Early Overreactions

Nov. 28, 2023 at 9:06 p.m.
#276
Ex Nucks fan
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Quoting: NorthernLeafsFan05
For a 5th?? Damn Kyle Davidson


Tidy business from both sides. Canucks got an asset + 4 mil in cap space for a redundant player and the Hawks got a decent roster player
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Nov. 28, 2023 at 9:23 p.m.
#277
Alex Bump Truther
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Beauvillier for a 5th is a steal for Chicago.

really like that for them

Understand why Vancouver did it, although I'm not sure they should be commended given they're in a tough spot cap wise for their own doings.
Nov. 28, 2023 at 9:40 p.m.
#278
Ban Price trades
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Quoting: Saskleaf
Yah same, basically what I said and my post got deleted


Quoting: NorthernLeafsFan05
I literally said don't jump to any conclusions and I got deleted, so it looks like they were just purging anything to do with the situation


This has been our general policy to the rumour spreading. Some of you guys, as you've pointed out, didn't do anything wrong. Just doing what we can to keep discussion as far away from that noise as possible.
Nov. 28, 2023 at 9:47 p.m.
#279
Go leafs go
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Quoting: BeterChiarelli
This has been our general policy to the rumour spreading. Some of you guys, as you've pointed out, didn't do anything wrong. Just doing what we can to keep discussion as far away from that noise as possible.


Yah that’s totally fair
Nov. 28, 2023 at 10:00 p.m.
#280
Hakuna Matata
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Rare moment to be seen

Won without any of the big 4 scoring or getting a point

Nice
Nov. 28, 2023 at 10:59 p.m.
#281
Hakuna Matata
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With Giordano now out got a feeling a trades coming soon

Gimmie Hanafin
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Nov. 29, 2023 at 12:21 a.m.
#282
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Mikheyev injured after taking a slap shot to his knee. Couldn’t out any weight on his leg and had to be helped off the ice

Typical Canucks luck that he gets injured hours after trading Beauvillier
Nov. 29, 2023 at 9:24 p.m.
#283
GM CRIME DAWG
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Don't watch MTL's Matheson a lot - but he's "thumbs-up" impactful every time I do catch his shifts!
Montreal Canadiens
Nov. 29, 2023 at 9:47 p.m.
#284
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Quoting: McGruff
Don't watch MTL's Matheson a lot - but he's "thumbs-up" impactful every time I do catch his shifts!
Montreal Canadiens


Yep, unfortunately, that impactful depends on the game, sometimes he looks like Booby Orr and other times he does the dumbest mistakes
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Nov. 30, 2023 at 10:43 a.m.
#285
Tintin over 1122
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lindgren is winning the vezina
Nov. 30, 2023 at 10:53 a.m.
#286
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Quoting: ricochetii
Too much left to speculation. They could have narrowed it down at least a little to prevent speculation along certain lines.
If Perry did something wrong (and indications are that he did), why are they seemingly more focused on protecting him than their organization?
This being the organization that buried years of misconduct and has promised to do better.
You can't claim to be improving yet maintain the lack of transparency and accountability which preceded those previous revelations.

They didn't even quell the original (baseless) rumors that began circulating, because they offered no plausible alternative or reason to trust the organization's statement or handling of the situation. They don't exactly have a good reputation in that area. If there are parties with no involvement being affected, it is those parties that should be protected, not the (alleged) perpetrator.

Perry is old enough and wise enough to understand that his actions have consequences and his chosen profession lacks an expectation of privacy in many areas.
If the statement is "family matters" or "personal issues", that's the end of most speculation. Those are areas where there should be privacy for the player.
When it's professional misconduct, some explanation is warranted. You can curate it as much as possible, but it should at least be sufficient to suggest, "Yes. That action deserves these consequences".
The NHL shop still has Corey Perry Blackhawks Jerseys advertised in their shop (and they may have already sold a bunch). Fans may have bought tickets to see him play. People may have him in their hockey pools. I don't gamble, but him being on Chicago may have been a factor in some of those decisions (maybe, I don't know).

Instead of closing the matter and moving on, they resolved absolutely nothing. Another shadow to linger over Chicago (and the NHL) for the foreseeable future.
This all makes it seem like he did something which would fall in line with those very things the organization has sworn to never allow to happen again, which would be why they are being so secretive.
That's the kind of devastating speculation they can't afford (unless that actually IS the reason, and we find out in another 10 years that they buried another incident).


My guess is the privacy is at the demand or common sense of whatever party was wronged. If, for example, some situation involved embarrassment, sending that to hundreds of millions on social media would make it way worse I think.

I think for us, sometimes we just have to let it go, cause maybe somebody had their life messed up a little bit, and if we keep digging we’re only harming them more. I feel the time to find justice is when it hasn’t been served, but, in this case, the deed is done - 4 milly.

As far as I’m concerned, unless the PA does something, this book is closed and is titled The Time Corey f-Ed Around and Found Out.
Nov. 30, 2023 at 11:11 a.m.
#287
Amirov Forever
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Quoting: capsfan2121
lindgren is winning the vezina


Not if Jack Campbell has anything to say about it
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Nov. 30, 2023 at 12:50 p.m.
#288
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Edited Nov. 30, 2023 at 1:01 p.m.
Goalie updates:

It looks like several teams are scrapping their tandems and moving towards a 1A/1B or a Starter/Backup situation:

Buffalo - with Levi now in the AHL; it is UPL time as the 1A for the Sabres; putting Comrie in the 1B role; which is the best arrangement based on all of their play this season to date. If the blueline can get settled down in front of them and the injury bug to stop hitting the Sabres could string together a good stretch here. I would expect a minimum 2/3 split for UPL/Comrie going forward with Comrie drawing Nashville 12/3, Montreal 12/9, Arizona 12/16, and 12/30 vs Columbus and UPL getting the rest.

Washington - Lindgren's start vs LA Kings seems to have shown that the Capitals prefer him in the net during the tougher matchup (they have 2nd half of B2B today against Anaheim. They have 3 games in the next 5 days then a 2 day break followed by 3 games in 4 days so you'll see both tenders get some action. The NY Rangers game on 12/9 will be the next real "tell": as it would rotate to Kuemper under an "every other game" pattern; but that is clearly a marquee matchup that is the 1st half of a B2B with Chicago being the 2nd half. If Lindgren gets that start then it is clear he has moved into the top part of the tandem.

Toronto - Woll is expected to start tonight, marking 3rd straight for him. Samsonov's last start was a B2B game against Chicago. It appears the Leafs are moving towards a 1A/1B with Woll getting 2 out of 3 games generally. This Saturday they play Boston and I would bank on Woll getting that one too because they have 4 days off after that. Samsonov can expect his next start to be 12/11 against NYIslanders; unless that 16-day break in action is deemed too much and they want him in against Ottawa on 12/7; but that would mean resting Woll for 6 days right when he seems to be settling in.

LA Kings Talbot continues to move into "workhorse" realm and I would only expect Copley to start on the "lesser" of any B2B games; 12/9 vs NYI;12/19 vs SJS; and 12/27 vs SJS thru the end of this year. That still doesn't leave a very heavy workload and plenty of multiple days of rest in there for Talbot so I wouldn't worry about burnout at this point in their season.

Anaheim - Their once highly functioning tandem with Gibson-Dostal has fallen apart. They gave the net to Gibby after Dostal hit a rough patch now both of them are struggling. This has probably more to say about the young defense and lack of scoring in front of them with the rest of the league having better scouting on the new HC's system and the players and regression setting in. Of course the trade rumors will swirl again around Gibson if the Ducks drop out of the playoff picture; but his play lately hasn't inspired demand either. Dostal looked better with more rubber and now that he is sitting for long stretches; one wonders if they should swap him and Stalock.

Tampa Bay - Vasy is back and he will be busy. With 5 games in 8 nights; Johansson will probably get the B2B matchup against Nashville on 12/7 and the New Years' Eve one against Montreal; there should be a relief day in there against Calgary on 12/16 since it is the tail end of a long road trip for the Bolts; and the rest should go to the workhorse (health allowing).

Edmonton - After tonights matchup with Winnipeg, they get a 5 day break they then have 6 games in 11 nights (at home), followed by a 2 day break then 3 games in 4 nights (including a B2B); they will need at least 2 of those starts to go to a backup (12/2 vs Chicago and 12/21-22 B2B vs NJD/NYR). The 5 day break would be a great time to work in a new tender if they are serious about a trade this early (and I think they should be). The biggest reason I can see for them needing to do this earlier than later is that the Oilers schedule post All-Star game is really intensive; so if they wait until then to acquire said goaltender they will be throwing them into the fire rather than easing them in to their systems; not to mention that they can't afford to "give away" many points in the standings either.

Montreal - continues their Trio-Tandem with Primeau going tonight; which means Allen vs Detroit on 12/2 and Montembeault on 12/4 vs Sea, wash, rinse, repeat (until a trade occurs).

Detroit - the other last remaining "trio" has been doing more of a "hot hand" at the 1B spot with Lyon sitting the first 15 games of the year and now Reimer sitting for 2 weeks straight while Lyon gets some starts. Many are seeing Lyon's success and wondering if that pushes Husso down but he took time off for his baby to be born while the team traveled to Sweden and returned with a really good game against Boston and NY Rangers so I don't think that will happen (context matters when you see the # of games over the past few weeks). Tonight vs Chicago is the second half of a B2B so it should be Lyon. Not sure when Reimer will get back in the lineup (or be traded) unless Lyon starts struggling. I would categorize the Red Wings as having a 1A-1B/2B setup.

Minnesota - new HC will probably see some changes in net deployment; he started Gus vs StL and looks to be sticking with him tonight vs Nashville. From 12/3 thru 12/10 the Wild have 5 games in 8 nights with a B2B so we'll see how many Fleury gets in and maybe paint the picture of how they might use them going forward.

Seattle - continues to not have any pattern or logic behind their goalie selections; aside from "fingers crossed maybe someone can play good". I really do wonder why they aren't bringing up Driedger to play; at least give him a shot and if he does well run with it or create a trade market for him.

Ottawa - Not much to discuss here about rotations, just that the Senators have had goaltending worse than just about everyone except Edmonton; however the 1A/1B setup of Korpisalo/Forsberg means they keep hoping ONE of them will step up. It looked like Forsberg was going to after his Sweden game but now that he has returned to North America he quickly returned to his old ways. Korpisalo didn't fare much better; but this is really about the poor defense in front of them; so it doesn't matter who starts it is just ugly right now in Ottawa. Maybe Chabot was a bigger factor than it seemed or they need a once-great franchise defensemen to take over the defense coaching duties but Wade Redden is already in the organization and Zdeno Chara is too busy running marathons.
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Nov. 30, 2023 at 1:40 p.m.
#289
mokumboi
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Dom's player cards are out at The Athletic. It's crazy, that guy is the biggest poser in the hockey media game, and oh my sweet lord is that saying a ton. He doesn't watch much hockey, and doesn't even approach understanding the limited hockey he does watch.
Nov. 30, 2023 at 2:00 p.m.
#290
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Quoting: mokumboi
Dom's player cards are out at The Athletic. It's crazy, that guy is the biggest poser in the hockey media game, and oh my sweet lord is that saying a ton. He doesn't watch much hockey, and doesn't even approach understanding the limited hockey he does watch.


Its a statistical model, that doesn't have any ability to grasp fluctuation of skill or development of a persons skills. its a horrible list but still fun to looks at...the fact its sorted by projection and not actual is so annoying.
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Nov. 30, 2023 at 5:46 p.m.
#291
mokumboi
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Quoting: BuFfaLOFaN
Its a statistical model, that doesn't have any ability to grasp fluctuation of skill or development of a persons skills. its a horrible list but still fun to looks at...the fact its sorted by projection and not actual is so annoying.


It doesn't grasp a laundry list of things. It basically sorts out to players on good teams are good, players on bad teams are bad, the Leafs are legendary and the Blues are horrible. I'm not at all convinced he doesn't thumb the scale at times, either. In fact, it seems glaringly obvious that he does.
Nov. 30, 2023 at 5:55 p.m.
#292
Ban Price trades
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Quoting: mokumboi
It doesn't grasp a laundry list of things. It basically sorts out to players on good teams are good, players on bad teams are bad, the Leafs are legendary and the Blues are horrible. I'm not at all convinced he doesn't thumb the scale at times, either. In fact, it seems glaringly obvious that he does.


I find his fantasy projections to be incredibly worthwhile, all of which are built on top of his model. And to his credit, and it's something that he showcases every offseason, it's one of the more reliable models on the web right now. You can't get 100% accuracy or 100% precision with only 10,000 simulations: we know the sport itself has far too much randomness and nuance baked into it.

The healthiest approach has always been not to swear fealty to only one model, or even just the Church of Analytics or the Old Testament of the Eye Test. Each faction offers something the other can't and they're best used together, not separate. The unintelligent reply we get here of "but chart" and it only links to some graph with no context is just that, unintelligent.
Nov. 30, 2023 at 5:55 p.m.
#293
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Quoting: BuFfaLOFaN
Its a statistical model, that doesn't have any ability to grasp fluctuation of skill or development of a persons skills. its a horrible list but still fun to looks at...the fact its sorted by projection and not actual is so annoying.


Quoting: mokumboi
It doesn't grasp a laundry list of things. It basically sorts out to players on good teams are good, players on bad teams are bad, the Leafs are legendary and the Blues are horrible. I'm not at all convinced he doesn't thumb the scale at times, either. In fact, it seems glaringly obvious that he does.


I will say that as a statistician he is better than average. I've used his customizable fantasy projections as a base for about 3 seasons now (after trying many others) and I've never been more dominant. I do tend to adjust his Time-On-Ice and Goalie Starts to be more inline with the players talent and likely usage (from watching hockey games) but his stats model is pretty good.
Nov. 30, 2023 at 5:55 p.m.
#294
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Quoting: BeterChiarelli
I find his fantasy projections to be incredibly worthwhile, all of which are built on top of his model. And to his credit, and it's something that he showcases every offseason, it's one of the more reliable models on the web right now. You can't get 100% accuracy or 100% precision with only 10,000 simulations: we know the sport itself has far too much randomness and nuance baked into it.

The healthiest approach has always been not to swear fealty to only one model, or even just the Church of Analytics or the Old Testament of the Eye Test. Each faction offers something the other can't and they're best used together, not separate. The unintelligent reply we get here of "but chart" and it only links to some graph with no context is just that, unintelligent.


Was just posting something similiar. Agreed
Nov. 30, 2023 at 5:56 p.m.
#295
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Quoting: mv21227
Mikheyev injured after taking a slap shot to his knee. Couldn’t out any weight on his leg and had to be helped off the ice

Typical Canucks luck that he gets injured hours after trading Beauvillier


Any updates on Mikheyev?
Nov. 30, 2023 at 6:04 p.m.
#296
Amirov Forever
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Zadorov to VAN for a 3rd and a 5th. Flames fans in shambles after insisting he was worth a first
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Nov. 30, 2023 at 6:12 p.m.
#297
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Quoting: HockeyScotty
Any updates on Mikheyev?


Wasn’t as bad as it first looked thankfully, he’s in the lineup tonight
Nov. 30, 2023 at 6:17 p.m.
#298
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Quoting: NorthernLeafsFan05
Zadorov to VAN for a 3rd and a 5th. Flames fans in shambles after insisting he was worth a first


I'm guessing that their expectations on the return were based on the assumption of retention; which is the only way there was a really competitive market for Z. He is a really good 3rd pair guy, who can float into the top 4 at times; but his highlight reel hits make people think they can play him top 4 all the time. He isn't that much different than Carson Soucy and Tyler Myers. If the Canucks wanted to get full of big "playoff style" defenders then mission accomplished.
Nov. 30, 2023 at 6:18 p.m.
#299
mokumboi
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Quoting: BeterChiarelli
I find his fantasy projections to be incredibly worthwhile, all of which are built on top of his model. And to his credit, and it's something that he showcases every offseason, it's one of the more reliable models on the web right now. You can't get 100% accuracy or 100% precision with only 10,000 simulations: we know the sport itself has far too much randomness and nuance baked into it.

The healthiest approach has always been not to swear fealty to only one model, or even just the Church of Analytics or the Old Testament of the Eye Test. Each faction offers something the other can't and they're best used together, not separate. The unintelligent reply we get here of "but chart" and it only links to some graph with no context is just that, unintelligent.


Quoting: HockeyScotty
I will say that as a statistician he is better than average. I've used his customizable fantasy projections as a base for about 3 seasons now (after trying many others) and I've never been more dominant. I do tend to adjust his Time-On-Ice and Goalie Starts to be more inline with the players talent and likely usage (from watching hockey games) but his stats model is pretty good.


A few things...

- The reason his model works to a reasonable degree for fantasy and betting is it's a game predictive model relying on season averages. It's a probability model, which he never tires of saying. The problem is hockey games are not decide based on cumulative averages and relying solely on probability is a great way to get crushed more than one would prefer. It's why he stopped doing the daily betting things: his model is good relative to others, but it's certainly not good enough to avoid massive slumps (and is notoriously useless most playoff years) because the maker doesn't even understand how to apply it that lead to gambling problems (which Dom said it did for him). So yeah, it's a relatively good single game betting model based solely on the wrong measure of a flawed on-ice stat as it tries to play percentages.

- When he starts projecting with the model, it all becomes a total farce. The model was already 100% subjective, but his "projections" devolve into guy injecting ignorance-based personal biases left and right. Because he makes it clear with his commentary that he barely watches any hockey past Leafs and maybe Wild games.

- Nobody ever tries to rely only on watching hockey or says to only rely on watching hockey. He gets paid to speak as an expert, but only relies on the least reliable way to judge hockey.

- Notice how the model becomes more useful when a reader installs their own statistical guard rails. Absolutely no comment on your ability to tweak models, that's generally proof the model is missing/ignoring big stuff.

But I digress. His baffling place in hockey has taken up enough oxygen for one day. Gak.
Nov. 30, 2023 at 6:20 p.m.
#300
WentWughes
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Quoting: NorthernLeafsFan05
Zadorov to VAN for a 3rd and a 5th. Flames fans in shambles after insisting he was worth a first


The value of 3rd pairing defender on a bad contract. You wait until the TD and retain 50% and you'll get a first.
 
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