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The type of dman we need

Created by: NHLfan10506
Team: 2023-24 New Jersey Devils
Initial Creation Date: Nov. 29, 2023
Published: Nov. 29, 2023
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Description
NJD may be adding a dman. I think, for our system, puck possession is the area we should be looking at. Turning around a scoring chances against, securing puck possession, protecting puck in d-zone, delivering it successfully further down the ice. I have picked a few readily available stats for screen for that I think may help (there are many other factors that contribute as well). But just for simplicity sake...

Three stats I would recommend looking at:

1. T/H: Takeaway-to-hits ratio (the number of takeaways divided by number of hits): Physicality is usually a plus, but often it does not lead to more possession. This helps isolate dmen that are actually acquiring possession.

2. ZACF%: Zone-adjusted CF% (zone adjusted CF would be CF minus o-zone starts, zone-adjusted CA would be CA minus d-zone starts, zone-adjusted CF% would be ZACF/[ZACF+ZACA]). Regular Corsi, or shot attempt, figures do not account for zone starts. This stat usually isolates players better at moving up through zones.

3. HMDCF%: Danger-zone CF% (High and Medium danger CF divided by all high and medium attempts). This is a measure of quality of chances, which usually indicates a successful possession. Isolates a players ability to get puck into high danger areas (and keep puck out of high danger areas)



Below are some players that have either been on trade boards or are potential UFAs next summer. The numbers listed are their rank among dmen for each category.

Player (Tm)…....................T/H--ZACF--HMDCF--AVG

Justin Schultz (SEA)…...........18 -- 23 -- 9 -- 16.7
Noah Hanifin (CGY)…..........42 -- 53 -- 79 -- 58.0
Sean Walker (PHI)…...........112 -- 39 -- 59 -- 70.0
Tyson Barrie (NSH)….........147 -- 72 -- 55 -- 91.3
Dmitry Kulikov (FLA)….......103 -- 81 -- 105 -- 96.3

Matt Roy (LAK)….................194 -- 61 -- 40 -- 98.3
Calvin de Haan (TBL)…......164 -- 97 -- 49 -- 103.3
Dakota Mermis (MIN)…....108 -- 98 -- 108 -- 104.7
Nikita Zadorov (CGY)….....136 -- 51 -- 136 -- 107.7
Dante Fabbro (NSH)….......117 -- 134 -- 78 -- 109.7

Chris Tanev (CGY)….............51 -- 119 -- 174 -- 114.7
Sebastian Aho (NYI)…........130 -- 131 -- 98 -- 119.7
Vin Desharnais (EDM)….....159 -- 55 -- 149 -- 121.0
Nick Seeler (PHI)….............179 -- 127 -- 114 -- 140.0
Marco Scandella (STL)…......74 -- 196 -- 160 -- 143.3

Alexandre Carrier (NSH)…154 -- 132 -- 145 -- 143.7
TJ Brodie (TOR)…...............107 -- 161 -- 164 -- 144.0
Chad Ruhwedel (PIT)….....146 -- 155 -- 184 -- 161.7
Dylan DeMelo (WPG)….....207 -- 144 -- 140 -- 163.7
Brenden Dillon (WPG)…...208 -- 143 -- 147 -- 166.0

Travis Dermott (ARI)…......213 -- 133 -- 188 -- 178.0
Derek Forbort (BOS)…......160 -- 192 -- 195 -- 182.3
Troy Stecher (ARI)…..........169 -- 193 -- 187 -- 183.0
Ilya Lyubushkin (ANA)…...148 -- 207 -- 208 -- 187.7
Matt Dumba (ARI)…..........185 -- 194 -- 203 -- 194.0

Josh Brown (ARI)…............195 -- 213 -- 210 -- 206.0
Erik Johnson (BUF)….........198 -- 209 -- 212 -- 206.3




Here is where NJD dmen stand now

Luke Hughes (NJD)…...........10 -- 2 -- 1 -- 4.3
Dougie Hamilton (NJD)….....67 -- 10 -- 4 -- 27.0
John Marino (NJD)….............32 -- 46 -- 86 -- 54.7
Jonas Siegenthaler (NJD)…140 -- 48 -- 37 -- 75.0
Brendan Smith (NJD)…......135 -- 85 --122-- 114.0
Kevin Bahl (NJD)…..............187 -- 99 -- 94 -- 126.7


Just something to consider...
Trades
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DraftRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7
2024
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2025
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2026
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ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
23$83,500,000$79,486,667$422,500$2,232,500$4,013,333
Left WingCentreRight Wing
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$2,125,000$2,125,000
RW, LW
UFA - 1
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$8,000,000$8,000,000
C
UFA - 7
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$8,800,000$8,800,000
LW, RW
UFA - 8
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RW, LW
RFA - 2
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C
UFA - 4
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$7,875,000$7,875,000
RW, LW
UFA - 8
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$6,000,000$6,000,000
LW, RW
NMC
UFA - 4
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$3,150,000$3,150,000
C, LW
NTC
UFA - 3
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RW, C
RFA - 1
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RW, C
UFA - 2
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C
RFA - 1
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$1,350,000$1,350,000
RW
UFA - 2
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UFA - 5
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UFA - 5
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G
UFA - 2
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LD/RD
RFA - 2
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UFA - 4
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G
RFA - 1
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LD
RFA - 2
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$1,850,000$1,850,000
RD
UFA - 1
ScratchesInjured Reserve (IR)Long Term IR (LTIR)
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LD/RD, LW
UFA - 1
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RD
M-NTC
UFA - 1
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C
UFA - 1
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$1,237,500$1,237,500
LD
M-NTC
UFA - 1
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LW, C
UFA - 1
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$2,650,000$2,650,000
LD/RD
UFA - 1
Taxi Squad
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$863,333$863,333 ($0$0$0$0)
LW
RFA - 1
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$775,000$775,000 ($0$0$0$0)
LW
UFA - 1
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$800,000$800,000 ($0$0$0$0)
RD
RFA - 1

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Nov. 29, 2023 at 10:17 a.m.
#1
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Extended Hanifin for Mercer straight across.

No picks nothing fancy.
Nov. 29, 2023 at 10:43 a.m.
#2
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Quoting: Flames1217
Extended Hanifin for Mercer straight across.

No picks nothing fancy.


Pending UFA LD simply don’t return 21 year old top 6 forwards
Nov. 29, 2023 at 10:48 a.m.
#3
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Quoting: dgibb10
Pending UFA LD simply don’t return 21 year old top 6 forwards


Extended Hanifin, not UFA Hanifin.

Very different scenario.
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Nov. 29, 2023 at 10:50 a.m.
#4
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Quoting: Flames1217
Extended Hanifin, not UFA Hanifin.

Very different scenario.


Extended at UFA prices Hanifin. It’s the same

You can pretend trading someone “extended” is a real thing that teams can use to massively inflate values of UFAs, but that’s not how the NHL works
Nov. 29, 2023 at 10:55 a.m.
#5
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Quoting: dgibb10
Extended at UFA prices Hanifin. It’s the same

You can pretend trading someone “extended” is a real thing that teams can use to massively inflate values of UFAs, but that’s not how the NHL works


Then we would want to going rate for UFA top pairing defenders traded in recent years :

1st, 2nd, one of your better prospects and a dump.

Not like your saving that much value here if Mercer is off the table.
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Nov. 29, 2023 at 11:20 a.m.
#6
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@NHLfan10506, what about other guys like Lauzon from NSH, Murphy form CHI, Borgen SEA. I don't watch much of the western teams and wondered if there might be somethin there other than the usual suspects you noted. Nice work BTW!
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Nov. 29, 2023 at 11:43 a.m.
#7
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Quoting: Flames1217
Then we would want to going rate for UFA top pairing defenders traded in recent years :

1st, 2nd, one of your better prospects and a dump.

Not like your saving that much value here if Mercer is off the table.


The going rate based on last deadline is a 1st and you give other assets if you want anything else

see: Orlov, gavrikov
Nov. 29, 2023 at 12:07 p.m.
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Quoting: dgibb10
The going rate based on last deadline is a 1st and you give other assets if you want anything else

see: Orlov, gavrikov


Hanifin is 6 years younger and cheaper than Orlov was and a far superior player than Gavrilov.

You really think that the flames are just going to give away a 26 year old two way minute munching defender?

Hanifin is the top defender currently on the market, the team that acquires him is going to have to give away something substantial.
Nov. 29, 2023 at 12:20 p.m.
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Quoting: Flames1217
Hanifin is 6 years younger and cheaper than Orlov was and a far superior player than Gavrilov.

You really think that the flames are just going to give away a 26 year old two way minute munching defender?

Hanifin is the top defender currently on the market, the team that acquires him is going to have to give away something substantial.


Hanifin is a rental just like orlov.
Nov. 29, 2023 at 12:27 p.m.
#10
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MEHANIFIN no thanks. Carrier over everyone you said.
Nov. 29, 2023 at 1:09 p.m.
#11
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Quoting: Flames1217
Extended Hanifin, not UFA Hanifin.

Very different scenario.


If Calgary extends him, I doubt they trade him.

If Calgary extends him for purpose of trading him, it likely doesn’t increase value all that much (for instance, Severson, extended, returned a 3rd round pick).

It’s not like there are two prices - one with extension, one without.
Nov. 29, 2023 at 1:13 p.m.
#12
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Quoting: Flames1217
Then we would want to going rate for UFA top pairing defenders traded in recent years :

1st, 2nd, one of your better prospects and a dump.

Not like your saving that much value here if Mercer is off the table.


Hannifin at 50% likely returns a 1st and prospect like Vilen, Filmon, Hameenaho. If Devils sought to extend Hanifin, maybe 1st plus Bahl.
 
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