Quoting: RazWild
It would technically need more except for one small issue.
Did you fail to realize that 1st round pick being shipped to Pittsburgh is currently sitting in the 8th OVA spot? It's a literal top-ten pick right now. Whatever additional value you think you're supposed to be getting is already being made up with a stupidly high draft pick.
A stupidly high draft pick that is accordingly being moved for an UFA rental in Guentzel that the Wild can neither afford or resign. Guentzel, for as good of a player as he is, doesn't move the needle to the point it likely changes where the Wild will pick in the draft
Tell me again where the incentive for Minnesota is? Because I'm not seeing it? Pittsburgh would be stupid NOT to take it, provided Foligno waives his NMC. Which he won't.
Sure, I'll play Devil's Advocate. A direct comparison I'd make to Guentzel's worth is the Bo Horvat trade. Horvat didn't have an extention in place at the time, so he that doesn't affect the value. I think for the sake of argument, Guentzel's more consistant play than what Horvat had at the time counteracts Bo playing at a more valuable position. So a roster player, a mid 1st, and an A/B tier prospect. And you're probably right that the 8OA pick probably is worth more to most teams than the 17OA and Aatu Raty, However...
The Wild have been a lot better under Hynes, and I think STL and ARI at least will end up below Minnesota, even without Guentzel. It's top 10 now, but I don't think it'll end up that way. As to Guentzel not moving the needle in terms of draft position, he's tied for 1st in even strength points and would be leading the Wild in scoring even despite the Pens' nonexistent PP. You're arguing that a really good player won't be enough to improve a team that's already trending in the right direction.
As for the cap, sending Foligno back and the cap increase almost entirely counteract what Guentzel is likely to get, and it doesn't look like anyone on the Wild is due for a huge raise next year. The cap will be tight for a year, but it will be with or without him. The Parise and Suter buyouts drop to $833k a piece the season after when Kaprisov, Rossi, and Faber need new deals. Doesn't sound to unreasonable to me.
Minnesota is a team with a franchise winger, several team-friendly deals at the top of the lineup, IMO one of the most underrated defensemen of a generation, and several young and super promising players. And they've been a 100+ point team for the past 2 years (3 if you count their 2021 pace). But because they had early struggles this season that already look like they're in the rear-view mirror, this season is a complete loss and they shouldn't add a consistent 35+ goal, PPG winger. Right...
Ultimately it doesn't matter because I doubt the Pens have any intention of tearing it down in anything but the worst-case scenario. That leaves us as two nerds arguing on the internet over effectively nothing. C'est la vie.